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MileHigh
Now, if the pandemic hits your city or country then you have to be rational. Let's say that 10% of the population is infected, and a proportion of those people are incubating the virus and not aware that they have it. Under those conditions when you go to the supermarket to buy your food you are probably going to be within two meters of let's say 100 people. That means it's almost a certainty that you are going to be in close proximity with someone that has the virus.

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franzk

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MileHigh
Now, if the pandemic hits your city or country then you have to be rational. Let's say that 10% of the population is infected, and a proportion of those people are incubating the virus and not aware that they have it. Under those conditions when you go to the supermarket to buy your food you are probably going to be within two meters of let's say 100 people. That means it's almost a certainty that you are going to be in close proximity with someone that has the virus.

If your calculations were correct that would mean that all checkout assistants, security assistants and other people who work in supermarkets and meet hundreds of people on the daily basis would be ill by now. It's obviously not the case.

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MileHigh

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franzk

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MileHigh
Now, if the pandemic hits your city or country then you have to be rational. Let's say that 10% of the population is infected, and a proportion of those people are incubating the virus and not aware that they have it. Under those conditions when you go to the supermarket to buy your food you are probably going to be within two meters of let's say 100 people. That means it's almost a certainty that you are going to be in close proximity with someone that has the virus.

If your calculations were correct that would mean that all checkout assistants, security assistants and other people who work in supermarkets and meet hundreds of people on the daily basis would be ill by now. It's obviously not the case.

Note that they aren't calculations but rater a thought experiment. Nowhere has the infection rate reached 10% of the population. But if it did one would assume that people like cashiers and checkout assistants that deal with the public and interact with lots of people will have to wear full protection.

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treaclefingers

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MileHigh

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franzk

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MileHigh
Now, if the pandemic hits your city or country then you have to be rational. Let's say that 10% of the population is infected, and a proportion of those people are incubating the virus and not aware that they have it. Under those conditions when you go to the supermarket to buy your food you are probably going to be within two meters of let's say 100 people. That means it's almost a certainty that you are going to be in close proximity with someone that has the virus.

If your calculations were correct that would mean that all checkout assistants, security assistants and other people who work in supermarkets and meet hundreds of people on the daily basis would be ill by now. It's obviously not the case.

Note that they aren't calculations but rater a thought experiment. Nowhere has the infection rate reached 10% of the population. But if it did one would assume that people like cashiers and checkout assistants that deal with the public and interact with lots of people will have to wear full protection.

Problem with this virus is still the 'unknown' as it hasn't been out that long, leading to speculation which may or may not be correct. I've heard that the incubation period is very long, can be weeks before you become symptomatic, but you can still spread the virus if you don't have symptoms.

That could explain why you see very small clusters now in 80 countries, but in other countries, South Korea, Iran, and Italy where you've gone from what seemed initially a small cluster to a very large outbreak. If this pattern were to hold you'd see a significant increase in the next 4 weeks or so in a lot of places where you have some small number of cases.

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DeanGoodman
Small Vancouver data point. The annual TED conference, originally scheduled for April 20-24, has just been postponed to July.

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From: James Robb <[email protected]>
Date: February 26, 2020 at 2:35:50 PM EST
Subject: What I am doing for the upcoming COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic

Dear Colleagues, as some of you may recall, when I was a professor of pathology at the University of California San Diego, I was one of the first molecular virologists in the world to work on coronaviruses (the 1970s). I was the first to demonstrate the number of genes the virus contained. Since then, I have kept up with the coronavirus field and its multiple clinical transfers into the human population (e.g., SARS, MERS), from different animal sources.

The current projections for its expansion in the US are only probable, due to continued insufficient worldwide data, but it is most likely to be widespread in the US by mid to late March and April.

Here is what I have done and the precautions that I take and will take. These are the same precautions I currently use during our influenza seasons, except for the mask and gloves.:

1) NO HANDSHAKING! Use a fist bump, slight bow, elbow bump, etc.

2) Use ONLY your knuckle to touch light switches. elevator buttons, etc.. Lift the gasoline dispenser with a paper towel or use a disposable glove.

3) Open doors with your closed fist or hip - do not grasp the handle with your hand, unless there is no other way to open the door. Especially important on bathroom and post office/commercial doors.

4) Use disinfectant wipes at the stores when they are available, including wiping the handle and child seat in grocery carts.

5) Wash your hands with soap for 10-20 seconds and/or use a greater than 60% alcohol-based hand sanitizer whenever you return home from ANY activity that involves locations where other people have been.

6) Keep a bottle of sanitizer available at each of your home's entrances. AND in your car for use after getting gas or touching other contaminated objects when you can't immediately wash your hands.

7) If possible, cough or sneeze into a disposable tissue and discard. Use your elbow only if you have to. The clothing on your elbow will contain infectious virus that can be passed on for up to a week or more!

What I have stocked in preparation for the pandemic spread to the US:

1) Latex or nitrile latex disposable gloves for use when going shopping, using the gasoline pump, and all other outside activity when you come in contact with contaminated areas.

Note: This virus is spread in large droplets by coughing and sneezing. This means that the air will not infect you! BUT all the surfaces where these droplets land are infectious for about a week on average - everything that is associated with infected people will be contaminated and potentially infectious. The virus is on surfaces and you will not be infected unless your unprotected face is directly coughed or sneezed upon. This virus only has cell receptors for lung cells (it only infects your lungs) The only way for the virus to infect you is through your nose or mouth via your hands or an infected cough or sneeze onto or into your nose or mouth.

2) Stock up now with disposable surgical masks and use them to prevent you from touching your nose and/or mouth (We touch our nose/mouth 90X/day without knowing it!). This is the only way this virus can infect you - it is lung-specific. The mask will not prevent the virus in a direct sneeze from getting into your nose or mouth - it is only to keep you from touching your nose or mouth.

3) Stock up now with hand sanitizers and latex/nitrile gloves (get the appropriate sizes for your family). The hand sanitizers must be alcohol-based and greater than 60% alcohol to be effective.

4) Stock up now with zinc lozenges. These lozenges have been proven to be effective in blocking coronavirus (and most other viruses) from multiplying in your throat and nasopharynx. Use as directed several times each day when you begin to feel ANY "cold-like" symptoms beginning. It is best to lie down and let the lozenge dissolve in the back of your throat and nasopharynx. Cold-Eeze lozenges is one brand available, but there are other brands available.

I, as many others do, hope that this pandemic will be reasonably contained, BUT I personally do not think it will be. Humans have never seen this snake-associated virus before and have no internal defense against it. Tremendous worldwide efforts are being made to understand the molecular and clinical virology of this virus. Unbelievable molecular knowledge about the genomics, structure, and virulence of this virus has already been achieved. BUT, there will be NO drugs or vaccines available this year to protect us or limit the infection within us. Only symptomatic support is available.

I hope these personal thoughts will be helpful during this potentially catastrophic pandemic. You are welcome to share this email. Good luck to all of us! Jim

James Robb, MD FCAP

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Topi
Stumbled upon this, not sure if legit:

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From: James Robb
Date: February 26, 2020 at 2:35:50 PM EST
Subject: What I am doing for the upcoming COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic

Dear Colleagues, as some of you may recall, when I was a professor of pathology at the University of California San Diego, I was one of the first molecular virologists in the world to work on coronaviruses (the 1970s). I was the first to demonstrate the number of genes the virus contained. Since then, I have kept up with the coronavirus field and its multiple clinical transfers into the human population (e.g., SARS, MERS), from different animal sources.

The current projections for its expansion in the US are only probable, due to continued insufficient worldwide data, but it is most likely to be widespread in the US by mid to late March and April.

Here is what I have done and the precautions that I take and will take. These are the same precautions I currently use during our influenza seasons, except for the mask and gloves.:

1) NO HANDSHAKING! Use a fist bump, slight bow, elbow bump, etc.

2) Use ONLY your knuckle to touch light switches. elevator buttons, etc.. Lift the gasoline dispenser with a paper towel or use a disposable glove.

3) Open doors with your closed fist or hip - do not grasp the handle with your hand, unless there is no other way to open the door. Especially important on bathroom and post office/commercial doors.

4) Use disinfectant wipes at the stores when they are available, including wiping the handle and child seat in grocery carts.

5) Wash your hands with soap for 10-20 seconds and/or use a greater than 60% alcohol-based hand sanitizer whenever you return home from ANY activity that involves locations where other people have been.

6) Keep a bottle of sanitizer available at each of your home's entrances. AND in your car for use after getting gas or touching other contaminated objects when you can't immediately wash your hands.

7) If possible, cough or sneeze into a disposable tissue and discard. Use your elbow only if you have to. The clothing on your elbow will contain infectious virus that can be passed on for up to a week or more!

What I have stocked in preparation for the pandemic spread to the US:

1) Latex or nitrile latex disposable gloves for use when going shopping, using the gasoline pump, and all other outside activity when you come in contact with contaminated areas.

Note: This virus is spread in large droplets by coughing and sneezing. This means that the air will not infect you! BUT all the surfaces where these droplets land are infectious for about a week on average - everything that is associated with infected people will be contaminated and potentially infectious. The virus is on surfaces and you will not be infected unless your unprotected face is directly coughed or sneezed upon. This virus only has cell receptors for lung cells (it only infects your lungs) The only way for the virus to infect you is through your nose or mouth via your hands or an infected cough or sneeze onto or into your nose or mouth.

2) Stock up now with disposable surgical masks and use them to prevent you from touching your nose and/or mouth (We touch our nose/mouth 90X/day without knowing it!). This is the only way this virus can infect you - it is lung-specific. The mask will not prevent the virus in a direct sneeze from getting into your nose or mouth - it is only to keep you from touching your nose or mouth.

3) Stock up now with hand sanitizers and latex/nitrile gloves (get the appropriate sizes for your family). The hand sanitizers must be alcohol-based and greater than 60% alcohol to be effective.

4) Stock up now with zinc lozenges. These lozenges have been proven to be effective in blocking coronavirus (and most other viruses) from multiplying in your throat and nasopharynx. Use as directed several times each day when you begin to feel ANY "cold-like" symptoms beginning. It is best to lie down and let the lozenge dissolve in the back of your throat and nasopharynx. Cold-Eeze lozenges is one brand available, but there are other brands available.

I, as many others do, hope that this pandemic will be reasonably contained, BUT I personally do not think it will be. Humans have never seen this snake-associated virus before and have no internal defense against it. Tremendous worldwide efforts are being made to understand the molecular and clinical virology of this virus. Unbelievable molecular knowledge about the genomics, structure, and virulence of this virus has already been achieved. BUT, there will be NO drugs or vaccines available this year to protect us or limit the infection within us. Only symptomatic support is available.

I hope these personal thoughts will be helpful during this potentially catastrophic pandemic. You are welcome to share this email. Good luck to all of us! Jim

James Robb, MD FCAP

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stickyfingers101
look, people....we're just going to have to get used to a world with Coronavirus.

It's not going away. Ever.

Cancelling events and closing schools etc. is simply pointless. We have to go back to school etc. eventually....

The very notion that nobody will have the virus AFTER a 2-week closing or it can't won't spread at that point is silly.

I mean...the Dark Ages tried mass-quarantines and closed entire cities and that didn't work.

It's here. It's going to spread. It's never going away. Just like "the flu"

We certainly shouldn't be overly casual about this, but we also have to come to terms w/ a world where Coronavirus exists....large gatherings might be "more dangerous"...but, they've always been "more dangerous" for the spread of illness.

Same rules as always apply: Practice better hygiene, stay home if you are sick.

That huge long list about "fist bumping" etc. is ridiculous...you can get the virus on your knuckles or clothes or anywhere....fist-bumping is not going to save you if you don't wash your hands.

unless you plan to never have any close-contact w/ other humans again...you're at risk. I've heard that dogs can get it too...so add them to the list.

just wash your hands, use sanitizer, keep them out of your nose, mouth, eyes...stay away from sick people, stay home if you are sick....

you can reduce your odds....but, other than death and taxes, nothing is certain in this world.

anybody who gets offended if I want to use sanitizer after a handshake will just have to deal.

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soundofblues

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stickyfingers101
look, people....we're just going to have to get used to a world with Coronavirus.

It's not going away. Ever.

Cancelling events and closing schools etc. is simply pointless. We have to go back to school etc. eventually....

The very notion that nobody will have the virus AFTER a 2-week closing or it can't won't spread at that point is silly.

I mean...the Dark Ages tried mass-quarantines and closed entire cities and that didn't work.

It's here. It's going to spread. It's never going away. Just like "the flu"

We certainly shouldn't be overly casual about this, but we also have to come to terms w/ a world where Coronavirus exists....large gatherings might be "more dangerous"...but, they've always been "more dangerous" for the spread of illness.

Same rules as always apply: Practice better hygiene, stay home if you are sick.

That huge long list about "fist bumping" etc. is ridiculous...you can get the virus on your knuckles or clothes or anywhere....fist-bumping is not going to save you if you don't wash your hands.

unless you plan to never have any close-contact w/ other humans again...you're at risk. I've heard that dogs can get it too...so add them to the list.

just wash your hands, use sanitizer, keep them out of your nose, mouth, eyes...stay away from sick people, stay home if you are sick....

you can reduce your odds....but, other than death and taxes, nothing is certain in this world.

anybody who gets offended if I want to use sanitizer after a handshake will just have to deal.

True!

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Beast
Scientists have now found a second (and apparently more aggressive) strain of COVID-19, which may complicate the quest for a vaccine.

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Two strains of the virus?

James Gallagher

Health and science correspondent, BBC News

Understanding how the coronavirus is mutating is vital.

A team of Chinese scientists have effectively played a complex game of “genetic spot the difference” with 103 coronavirus samples.

Their findings suggest there are two distinct “strains” of the virus, but what this means is speculation.

The researchers have found differences in the genetic code of the two strains, but they do not show this alters the behaviour of the virus.

They do not prove one is “more aggressive” than the other, as has been reported.

That will require further experiments and the researchers themselves say the amount of data they have to work with is “still very limited”.

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treaclefingers

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soundofblues

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stickyfingers101
look, people....we're just going to have to get used to a world with Coronavirus.

It's not going away. Ever.

Cancelling events and closing schools etc. is simply pointless. We have to go back to school etc. eventually....

The very notion that nobody will have the virus AFTER a 2-week closing or it can't won't spread at that point is silly.

I mean...the Dark Ages tried mass-quarantines and closed entire cities and that didn't work.

It's here. It's going to spread. It's never going away. Just like "the flu"

We certainly shouldn't be overly casual about this, but we also have to come to terms w/ a world where Coronavirus exists....large gatherings might be "more dangerous"...but, they've always been "more dangerous" for the spread of illness.

Same rules as always apply: Practice better hygiene, stay home if you are sick.

That huge long list about "fist bumping" etc. is ridiculous...you can get the virus on your knuckles or clothes or anywhere....fist-bumping is not going to save you if you don't wash your hands.

unless you plan to never have any close-contact w/ other humans again...you're at risk. I've heard that dogs can get it too...so add them to the list.

just wash your hands, use sanitizer, keep them out of your nose, mouth, eyes...stay away from sick people, stay home if you are sick....

you can reduce your odds....but, other than death and taxes, nothing is certain in this world.

anybody who gets offended if I want to use sanitizer after a handshake will just have to deal.

True!

I don't think anyone has suggested that it is 'going away'. Trying to slow the spread, until such time as a vaccine can be developed and distributed seems about as prudent a strategy as is possible at the moment. For you to suggest to 'just let it happen' would mean countless lives unnecessarily lost.

We'll get past this for sure, but there's absolutely no reason to not take reasonable precautions.