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NateQuote
MisterDDDDQuote
Nate
Good luck wearing that on a ten hour flight.
Nate
Yup. My first thought as well.
Won't be taking any, but would consider for a two hour flight
I think the risk of picking up this virus when flying will be pretty low.Soon you won’t even be permitted to enter the airport if you have a high temperature let alone board a plane.Yes of course someone could have the virus and not be showing symptoms but with all the new safety measures that will be introduced and the fact that modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters the same air filters that are used in operating theatres that remove 99.97% of impurities I think the risk will be low.
Personally I’m not worried about flying and will do so as soon as borders open again.There has never been a vaccine produced for any Coronavirus so this virus may be here to stay.I completely understand the need to shut things down and not let health systems get overwhelmed but in some places it is now time to seriously start looking at safely opening up again.
Nate
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NateQuote
MisterDDDDQuote
Nate
Good luck wearing that on a ten hour flight.
Nate
Yup. My first thought as well.
Won't be taking any, but would consider for a two hour flight
I think the risk of picking up this virus when flying will be pretty low.Soon you won’t even be permitted to enter the airport if you have a high temperature let alone board a plane.Yes of course someone could have the virus and not be showing symptoms but with all the new safety measures that will be introduced and the fact that modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters the same air filters that are used in operating theatres that remove 99.97% of impurities I think the risk will be low.
Personally I’m not worried about flying and will do so as soon as borders open again.There has never been a vaccine produced for any Coronavirus so this virus may be here to stay.I completely understand the need to shut things down and not let health systems get overwhelmed but in some places it is now time to seriously start looking at safely opening up again.
Nate
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daspyknowsQuote
NateQuote
MisterDDDDQuote
Nate
Good luck wearing that on a ten hour flight.
Nate
Yup. My first thought as well.
Won't be taking any, but would consider for a two hour flight
I think the risk of picking up this virus when flying will be pretty low.Soon you won’t even be permitted to enter the airport if you have a high temperature let alone board a plane.Yes of course someone could have the virus and not be showing symptoms but with all the new safety measures that will be introduced and the fact that modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters the same air filters that are used in operating theatres that remove 99.97% of impurities I think the risk will be low.
Personally I’m not worried about flying and will do so as soon as borders open again.There has never been a vaccine produced for any Coronavirus so this virus may be here to stay.I completely understand the need to shut things down and not let health systems get overwhelmed but in some places it is now time to seriously start looking at safely opening up again.
Nate
Using temperature as an indicator is security theater. I Was very sick with Covid19 but was taking tylenol so normal temperature more often than not. My highest recorded temperature never reached 101 degrees and actually I had a normal temp when they checked in the ambulance on the way to the hospital.
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DGA35Quote
DGA35
Well the US unfortunately just hit 80000 deaths with a total number of cases at 1,346,717 so still around 2000 per day since my last update early last week. At the current rate, they'll hit 100,000 in 10 more days.
Total worldwide is now 4,010,000 with 278,000 deaths
New updated US figures, now 87000 deaths and 1.455 million cases. Average daily numbers has dropped from around 2000 per day to around 1400 so that's a good sign. Not a good sign is news reports of people crowding into bars, etc. as states start to reopen. Worldwide total is now 4.52 million cases and 303000 deaths. Keep an eye on Brazil, the numbers there are starting to explode.
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AquamarineQuote
NateQuote
MisterDDDDQuote
Nate
Good luck wearing that on a ten hour flight.
Nate
Yup. My first thought as well.
Won't be taking any, but would consider for a two hour flight
I think the risk of picking up this virus when flying will be pretty low.Soon you won’t even be permitted to enter the airport if you have a high temperature let alone board a plane.Yes of course someone could have the virus and not be showing symptoms but with all the new safety measures that will be introduced and the fact that modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters the same air filters that are used in operating theatres that remove 99.97% of impurities I think the risk will be low.
Personally I’m not worried about flying and will do so as soon as borders open again.There has never been a vaccine produced for any Coronavirus so this virus may be here to stay.I completely understand the need to shut things down and not let health systems get overwhelmed but in some places it is now time to seriously start looking at safely opening up again.
Nate
If modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters and they're still germ-incubators, that doesn't fill me with a great deal of confidence.
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NateQuote
AquamarineQuote
NateQuote
MisterDDDDQuote
Nate
Good luck wearing that on a ten hour flight.
Nate
Yup. My first thought as well.
Won't be taking any, but would consider for a two hour flight
I think the risk of picking up this virus when flying will be pretty low.Soon you won’t even be permitted to enter the airport if you have a high temperature let alone board a plane.Yes of course someone could have the virus and not be showing symptoms but with all the new safety measures that will be introduced and the fact that modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters the same air filters that are used in operating theatres that remove 99.97% of impurities I think the risk will be low.
Personally I’m not worried about flying and will do so as soon as borders open again.There has never been a vaccine produced for any Coronavirus so this virus may be here to stay.I completely understand the need to shut things down and not let health systems get overwhelmed but in some places it is now time to seriously start looking at safely opening up again.
Nate
If modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters and they're still germ-incubators, that doesn't fill me with a great deal of confidence.
Unless you are sitting within a couple of rows of an infected person then the risk is believed to be very low.Life is never 100% safe of course you can take precautions and act safe but there is always a degree of risk with everything.
If you understand about numbers and know that numbers are connected with everything then it’s possible to calculate the risks and you also have to take into account risk versus reward.Travelling is immensely rewarding and if I was told I could never fly or travel anywhere again I would become seriously depressed.For me the risk is worth it but of course it’s a personal choice other people may prefer to stay at home.
Nate
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Stoneage
When it comes to statistics one has to bear in mind that some countries do not even keep statistics. And some countries are propaganda states and reports what ever they find acceptable.
So statistics won't tell the whole truth. In some cases we will have to deal with estimates.
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bonddmQuote
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bonddm
We currently have a total of 100 deaths in Australia from a population of 25+ million, but our media still insists that the apocalypse is nigh!
The media insist a “second wave“ is coming in the winter. I live in one of the coldest municipalities on the mainland (Surf Coast) and winter is less than 2 weeks away.
We have a population here of 33,000+, but currently have 0 active cases!
The closest city (Geelong) has 0 active cases from a population of nearly 270,000!
There's an old saying along the lines of ... You pay your money and you make your choice. That's what Australia did - thanks to the firm stand taken by two State Premiers from opposing political parties.
In mid-March we were at almost the exact same position at the time as the UK and we had the choice either to clamp down hard on our way of life and hope that we had few deaths, but some hardship on the way. Or we could carry on regardless and expect many tens of thousands of deaths.
We chose to save lives. We can work our way out of recession, but we can't bring back the dead.
Of course that very low death count means that paradoxically to most of us it seems as if it's all been a big fizzer. A huge fuss about nothing. I get that.
In Australia the News today leads with details about the death of the 100th person since the start of the Pandemic- in many countries around the world they tell each day of the deaths of hundreds each day.
Look at the numbers elsewhere in the world. This, John Hopkins University site [www.arcgis.com] is a good place to start.
The UK acted only slightly slower (a matter of days) and only a bit less harshly - and they have had over 30,000 deaths. (That's the entire population of where you tell us you live).
That's why you live somewhere where there's a case count of Zero. Be thankful for that, don't curse it!
(And as for being cold.... up here in the Macedon Ranges we've been close to zero in the mornings - other than today - for the last 4 days. That's cold.)
I’ve mainly having a crack for the media for constantly running with a “second wave” in winter, despite the start of it being less than 2 weeks away! If that was going to be the case, shouldn’t you already be seeing signs of it in colder areas, rather than the complete opposite?! Canberra also has 0 active cases.
All it takes is one infected person to start the spread. That there are no cases means you should be saying we have been successful rather than we have overreacted IMHO
Please alert me to where I said we overreacted?! I am having a crack at the media for constantly publishing stories about “a second wave in winter” containing about as much evidence as there is for the existence of Bigfoot!
Am I just supposed to take as gospel articles by our media that don’t even provide a skerrick of evidence to back them up, despite the fact nearly all cooler locales here have 0 active cases, a whopping 10 days away from winter?! They are unnecessarily panicking people with 100% unsubstantiated stories.
By the way, I voted for our current state government in the last election and every election before that, so don’t bother trying to put a political spin on my comments!
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CaptainCorellaQuote
bonddmQuote
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bonddmQuote
CaptainCorellaQuote
bonddm
We currently have a total of 100 deaths in Australia from a population of 25+ million, but our media still insists that the apocalypse is nigh!
The media insist a “second wave“ is coming in the winter. I live in one of the coldest municipalities on the mainland (Surf Coast) and winter is less than 2 weeks away.
We have a population here of 33,000+, but currently have 0 active cases!
The closest city (Geelong) has 0 active cases from a population of nearly 270,000!
There's an old saying along the lines of ... You pay your money and you make your choice. That's what Australia did - thanks to the firm stand taken by two State Premiers from opposing political parties.
In mid-March we were at almost the exact same position at the time as the UK and we had the choice either to clamp down hard on our way of life and hope that we had few deaths, but some hardship on the way. Or we could carry on regardless and expect many tens of thousands of deaths.
We chose to save lives. We can work our way out of recession, but we can't bring back the dead.
Of course that very low death count means that paradoxically to most of us it seems as if it's all been a big fizzer. A huge fuss about nothing. I get that.
In Australia the News today leads with details about the death of the 100th person since the start of the Pandemic- in many countries around the world they tell each day of the deaths of hundreds each day.
Look at the numbers elsewhere in the world. This, John Hopkins University site [www.arcgis.com] is a good place to start.
The UK acted only slightly slower (a matter of days) and only a bit less harshly - and they have had over 30,000 deaths. (That's the entire population of where you tell us you live).
That's why you live somewhere where there's a case count of Zero. Be thankful for that, don't curse it!
(And as for being cold.... up here in the Macedon Ranges we've been close to zero in the mornings - other than today - for the last 4 days. That's cold.)
I’ve mainly having a crack for the media for constantly running with a “second wave” in winter, despite the start of it being less than 2 weeks away! If that was going to be the case, shouldn’t you already be seeing signs of it in colder areas, rather than the complete opposite?! Canberra also has 0 active cases.
All it takes is one infected person to start the spread. That there are no cases means you should be saying we have been successful rather than we have overreacted IMHO
Please alert me to where I said we overreacted?! I am having a crack at the media for constantly publishing stories about “a second wave in winter” containing about as much evidence as there is for the existence of Bigfoot!
Am I just supposed to take as gospel articles by our media that don’t even provide a skerrick of evidence to back them up, despite the fact nearly all cooler locales here have 0 active cases, a whopping 10 days away from winter?! They are unnecessarily panicking people with 100% unsubstantiated stories.
By the way, I voted for our current state government in the last election and every election before that, so don’t bother trying to put a political spin on my comments!
The biggest problem is that there's no real way at the moment to claim that the virus has been eliminated. That means that while there will be many places where there are ZERO known cases, there may be an undercurrent (bad word, sorry) of cases still lurking around. VERY dangerous, not least because it's well possible to be almost totally asymptomatic, also because a victim is at their most infectious before symptoms appear!
That means that all we need is one or two residual unknown and possibly asymptomatic cases to visit (eg) Torquay to go surfing, or to travel on a train from Melbourne to Geelong, (plus perhaps visiting a Macdonalds to get a meal!) and your previously unaffected area could then become a hot spot. And unless that's picked up VERY quickly and very belligerently dealt with we're back to square one.
The worries about a second wave are real. ALL of the epidemialogical modelling showed that. If you watched the press conference where Brendan Murphy showed the modelling it was present as a climbing slope on a graph of numbers, and he then stood in front of it to (I assume) not scare people.
[That line was there on the graphs. I can be certain of that because my daughter (who has a BSc in Medical Science and a PhD in same, plus she did a lot of work for the Australasian ICU specialists, spotted it as well and asked me if I knew what it was and we checked it out together). It meant that if you supressed the curve and then once cases were back to very small numbers you then released all checks... you'd be very badly off indeed.]
Strangely my perception of the same Australian media as you is the opposite. I see them encouraging people to treat the social distancing less seriously and to press for the relaxation of restrictions etc etc.
PS. Dan IS the man! Along with Gladys together they used their muscle (population) to force Scott from marketing to do something real (and not go to that rugby that Sunday! All of the other Premiers are doing remarkably well (IMHO), but leading the two largest States gives those two more power nationally than the others.
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bonddm
I don’t doubt that a “second wave” is a possibility, but it’s these lazy assumptions (with no evidence) by the media that the winter weather will automatically bring it on that really grinds my gears! It’s total guesswork on their part.
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Nate
Yes of course someone could have the virus and not be showing symptoms but with all the new safety measures that will be introduced and the fact that modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters the same air filters that are used in operating theatres that remove 99.97% of impurities I think the risk will be low.
Nate
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CaptainCorellaQuote
Nate
Yes of course someone could have the virus and not be showing symptoms but with all the new safety measures that will be introduced and the fact that modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters the same air filters that are used in operating theatres that remove 99.97% of impurities I think the risk will be low.
Nate
Over the recent years we have come to expect to get some sort of infection within a few days of flying.
I know that the HEPA filters are claimed to be fitted, but notwithstanding that, I have zero confidence in how effective they are in a real world.
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Chris Fountain
The post from yesterday in the "Stones' Future" Thread bears repeating. I hope this is acceptable.
My question: Does this mean that it will be years of dealing with Covid -19? Say more than an additional 2 years?
Sorry to bring bad news on a day when they say one of the vaccines may be 90% effective, but there is currently a mutant of the virus in Denmark, among mink farms, spreading back among people, and the vaccines in development may nyears?ot be that effective versus that mutant.
UK scientists seek mutant Covid samples from Danish mink farms (Guardian 8 Nov 2020)
Danish health authorities raised the alarm over the mutant virus last week and announced a cull of the nation’s 17 million mink as the Statens Serum Institut (SSI) in Copenhagen warned of potentially “serious consequences” for vaccines if it was allowed to spread internationally.
Tests in Denmark have picked up more than 200 people with coronavirus mutations linked to mink farms since June, but concern centres on a dozen cases in North Jutland of people who fell ill in September with a unique variant of the virus.
Known as “cluster five”, the variant has four separate mutations in the so-called spike protein that the virus uses to enter cells, and on which most vaccines are based.
Bjornulf
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Koen
The announcement of a vaccin is really good news. But it could take a year or even more before everyone gets vaccinated. In the mean time everyone needs to just follow a few rules to save lives. It’s that simple.
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bv
Some places there is a vaccine resistance up to 50% in the population. If you have a vaccine with 90% efficiency where just 50% do accept the vaccine then it will be just 0.9 x 0.5 = 45%.
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bv
The Mink problem is a worry to me. They say bats and mink are typically species who may host corona virus.
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Koen
The announcement of a vaccin is really good news. But it could take a year or even more before everyone gets vaccinated. In the mean time everyone needs to just follow a few rules to save lives. It’s that simple.
It's hopeful, and at this point the statistics in Holland are slightly going in the good direction. A pity there are still a lot of Virus-deniers that blow it for people that stick to the rules, the older weak people and people that lose their jobs.
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georgie48Quote
TheflyingDutchmanQuote
Koen
The announcement of a vaccin is really good news. But it could take a year or even more before everyone gets vaccinated. In the mean time everyone needs to just follow a few rules to save lives. It’s that simple.
It's hopeful, and at this point the statistics in Holland are slightly going in the good direction. A pity there are still a lot of Virus-deniers that blow it for people that stick to the rules, the older weak people and people that lose their jobs.
Th problem with statistics is that you have to report the full picture, otherwise the meaning of data becomes very subjective.
You mention that the statistics are slightly going in the good direction, but what does that mean?
There are indeed less people testing positive, but ... the number of people being tested has also decreased and then it's obvious that you find less people being tested positive. The other way around results are also affected off course. The R factor should go down well below 1.0 and then we are getting somewhere.
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TheflyingDutchmanQuote
georgie48Quote
TheflyingDutchmanQuote
Koen
The announcement of a vaccin is really good news. But it could take a year or even more before everyone gets vaccinated. In the mean time everyone needs to just follow a few rules to save lives. It’s that simple.
It's hopeful, and at this point the statistics in Holland are slightly going in the good direction. A pity there are still a lot of Virus-deniers that blow it for people that stick to the rules, the older weak people and people that lose their jobs.
Th problem with statistics is that you have to report the full picture, otherwise the meaning of data becomes very subjective.
You mention that the statistics are slightly going in the good direction, but what does that mean?
There are indeed less people testing positive, but ... the number of people being tested has also decreased and then it's obvious that you find less people being tested positive. The other way around results are also affected off course. The R factor should go down well below 1.0 and then we are getting somewhere.
I know, but the pressure in the Hospitals is decreasing a bit. That's at least something.