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Nate

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MisterDDDD

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Nate

Good luck wearing that on a ten hour flight.

Nate

Yup. My first thought as well.
Won't be taking any, but would consider for a two hour flight

I think the risk of picking up this virus when flying will be pretty low.Soon you won’t even be permitted to enter the airport if you have a high temperature let alone board a plane.Yes of course someone could have the virus and not be showing symptoms but with all the new safety measures that will be introduced and the fact that modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters the same air filters that are used in operating theatres that remove 99.97% of impurities I think the risk will be low.
Personally I’m not worried about flying and will do so as soon as borders open again.There has never been a vaccine produced for any Coronavirus so this virus may be here to stay.I completely understand the need to shut things down and not let health systems get overwhelmed but in some places it is now time to seriously start looking at safely opening up again.

Nate

If modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters and they're still germ-incubators, that doesn't fill me with a great deal of confidence.

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Nate

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MisterDDDD

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Nate

Good luck wearing that on a ten hour flight.

Nate

Yup. My first thought as well.
Won't be taking any, but would consider for a two hour flight

I think the risk of picking up this virus when flying will be pretty low.Soon you won’t even be permitted to enter the airport if you have a high temperature let alone board a plane.Yes of course someone could have the virus and not be showing symptoms but with all the new safety measures that will be introduced and the fact that modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters the same air filters that are used in operating theatres that remove 99.97% of impurities I think the risk will be low.
Personally I’m not worried about flying and will do so as soon as borders open again.There has never been a vaccine produced for any Coronavirus so this virus may be here to stay.I completely understand the need to shut things down and not let health systems get overwhelmed but in some places it is now time to seriously start looking at safely opening up again.

Nate

Using temperature as an indicator is security theater. I Was very sick with Covid19 but was taking tylenol so normal temperature more often than not. My highest recorded temperature never reached 101 degrees and actually I had a normal temp when they checked in the ambulance on the way to the hospital.

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daspyknows

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Nate

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MisterDDDD

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Nate

Good luck wearing that on a ten hour flight.

Nate

Yup. My first thought as well.
Won't be taking any, but would consider for a two hour flight

I think the risk of picking up this virus when flying will be pretty low.Soon you won’t even be permitted to enter the airport if you have a high temperature let alone board a plane.Yes of course someone could have the virus and not be showing symptoms but with all the new safety measures that will be introduced and the fact that modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters the same air filters that are used in operating theatres that remove 99.97% of impurities I think the risk will be low.
Personally I’m not worried about flying and will do so as soon as borders open again.There has never been a vaccine produced for any Coronavirus so this virus may be here to stay.I completely understand the need to shut things down and not let health systems get overwhelmed but in some places it is now time to seriously start looking at safely opening up again.

Nate

Using temperature as an indicator is security theater. I Was very sick with Covid19 but was taking tylenol so normal temperature more often than not. My highest recorded temperature never reached 101 degrees and actually I had a normal temp when they checked in the ambulance on the way to the hospital.

Taking temperatures is only one tool there will soon be widespread rapid testing available.Basically you won’t be allowed to board a plane if you are sick.There will always be some that slip through the net but flying will from now on become much more hygienic than ever before.
Anyway I’m glad you have recovered from being sick and hopefully now you have an immunity to it.

Nate

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DGA35

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DGA35
Well the US unfortunately just hit 80000 deaths with a total number of cases at 1,346,717 so still around 2000 per day since my last update early last week. At the current rate, they'll hit 100,000 in 10 more days.
Total worldwide is now 4,010,000 with 278,000 deaths

New updated US figures, now 87000 deaths and 1.455 million cases. Average daily numbers has dropped from around 2000 per day to around 1400 so that's a good sign. Not a good sign is news reports of people crowding into bars, etc. as states start to reopen. Worldwide total is now 4.52 million cases and 303000 deaths. Keep an eye on Brazil, the numbers there are starting to explode.

US just passed 93000 deaths and 1.563 million cases. Average has risen to an average of 1500 deaths per day for the past 4 days but still below the 2000 per day like it was a couple weeks ago. At the current rate, the 100k mark will be hit sometime on Saturday. Worldwide 4.87 million cases and 321k deaths.

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Aquamarine

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Nate

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MisterDDDD

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Nate

Good luck wearing that on a ten hour flight.

Nate

Yup. My first thought as well.
Won't be taking any, but would consider for a two hour flight

I think the risk of picking up this virus when flying will be pretty low.Soon you won’t even be permitted to enter the airport if you have a high temperature let alone board a plane.Yes of course someone could have the virus and not be showing symptoms but with all the new safety measures that will be introduced and the fact that modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters the same air filters that are used in operating theatres that remove 99.97% of impurities I think the risk will be low.
Personally I’m not worried about flying and will do so as soon as borders open again.There has never been a vaccine produced for any Coronavirus so this virus may be here to stay.I completely understand the need to shut things down and not let health systems get overwhelmed but in some places it is now time to seriously start looking at safely opening up again.

Nate

If modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters and they're still germ-incubators, that doesn't fill me with a great deal of confidence.

Unless you are sitting within a couple of rows of an infected person then the risk is believed to be very low.Life is never 100% safe of course you can take precautions and act safe but there is always a degree of risk with everything.
If you understand about numbers and know that numbers are connected with everything then it’s possible to calculate the risks and you also have to take into account risk versus reward.Travelling is immensely rewarding and if I was told I could never fly or travel anywhere again I would become seriously depressed.For me the risk is worth it but of course it’s a personal choice other people may prefer to stay at home.

Nate

When it comes to statistics one has to bear in mind that some countries do not even keep statistics. And some countries are propaganda states and reports what ever they find acceptable.
So statistics won't tell the whole truth. In some cases we will have to deal with estimates.

Some short thoughts: I think this pandemic will stay for a while. Maybe follow the same pattern as the Spanish Flu? It died out after two years. Epidemiologists talked about herd immunity
but seem to have changed their minds a bit about the efficiency of that. It think testing will be essential. In order to eliminate the spread of the disease.

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Nate

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Aquamarine

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Nate

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MisterDDDD

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Nate

Good luck wearing that on a ten hour flight.

Nate

Yup. My first thought as well.
Won't be taking any, but would consider for a two hour flight

I think the risk of picking up this virus when flying will be pretty low.Soon you won’t even be permitted to enter the airport if you have a high temperature let alone board a plane.Yes of course someone could have the virus and not be showing symptoms but with all the new safety measures that will be introduced and the fact that modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters the same air filters that are used in operating theatres that remove 99.97% of impurities I think the risk will be low.
Personally I’m not worried about flying and will do so as soon as borders open again.There has never been a vaccine produced for any Coronavirus so this virus may be here to stay.I completely understand the need to shut things down and not let health systems get overwhelmed but in some places it is now time to seriously start looking at safely opening up again.

Nate

If modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters and they're still germ-incubators, that doesn't fill me with a great deal of confidence.

Unless you are sitting within a couple of rows of an infected person then the risk is believed to be very low.Life is never 100% safe of course you can take precautions and act safe but there is always a degree of risk with everything.
If you understand about numbers and know that numbers are connected with everything then it’s possible to calculate the risks and you also have to take into account risk versus reward.Travelling is immensely rewarding and if I was told I could never fly or travel anywhere again I would become seriously depressed.For me the risk is worth it but of course it’s a personal choice other people may prefer to stay at home.

Nate

Well, I don't think anyone's suggesting a scenario where we can never fly anywhere again, it's just for the immediate future while this thing is nowhere near under control. Once numbers go down and there's an effective treatment and/or a vaccine, we'll all be back in the friendly skies again. Personally I'm not ready yet.

THE AGE --- 20 May 2020



ROCKMAN

A rare feelgood story out of the pandemic.

100-year-old Captain Tom Moore, later promoted by the Queen to honorary Colonel Tom Moore after he raised a whopping £33 million for our National Health Service by walking 100 laps of his garden, is now to be knighted.

Arise, SIR Tom, and good on ya!

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Stoneage
When it comes to statistics one has to bear in mind that some countries do not even keep statistics. And some countries are propaganda states and reports what ever they find acceptable.
So statistics won't tell the whole truth. In some cases we will have to deal with estimates.

Some states in US too.

[www.usatoday.com]

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bonddm

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daspyknows

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bonddm

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CaptainCorella

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bonddm
We currently have a total of 100 deaths in Australia from a population of 25+ million, but our media still insists that the apocalypse is nigh!

The media insist a “second wave“ is coming in the winter. I live in one of the coldest municipalities on the mainland (Surf Coast) and winter is less than 2 weeks away.
We have a population here of 33,000+, but currently have 0 active cases!
The closest city (Geelong) has 0 active cases from a population of nearly 270,000!

There's an old saying along the lines of ... You pay your money and you make your choice. That's what Australia did - thanks to the firm stand taken by two State Premiers from opposing political parties.

In mid-March we were at almost the exact same position at the time as the UK and we had the choice either to clamp down hard on our way of life and hope that we had few deaths, but some hardship on the way. Or we could carry on regardless and expect many tens of thousands of deaths.

We chose to save lives. We can work our way out of recession, but we can't bring back the dead.

Of course that very low death count means that paradoxically to most of us it seems as if it's all been a big fizzer. A huge fuss about nothing. I get that.

In Australia the News today leads with details about the death of the 100th person since the start of the Pandemic- in many countries around the world they tell each day of the deaths of hundreds each day.

Look at the numbers elsewhere in the world. This, John Hopkins University site [www.arcgis.com] is a good place to start.

The UK acted only slightly slower (a matter of days) and only a bit less harshly - and they have had over 30,000 deaths. (That's the entire population of where you tell us you live).

That's why you live somewhere where there's a case count of Zero. Be thankful for that, don't curse it!

(And as for being cold.... up here in the Macedon Ranges we've been close to zero in the mornings - other than today - for the last 4 days. That's cold.)

I’ve mainly having a crack for the media for constantly running with a “second wave” in winter, despite the start of it being less than 2 weeks away! If that was going to be the case, shouldn’t you already be seeing signs of it in colder areas, rather than the complete opposite?! Canberra also has 0 active cases.

All it takes is one infected person to start the spread. That there are no cases means you should be saying we have been successful rather than we have overreacted IMHO

Please alert me to where I said we overreacted?! I am having a crack at the media for constantly publishing stories about “a second wave in winter” containing about as much evidence as there is for the existence of Bigfoot!

Am I just supposed to take as gospel articles by our media that don’t even provide a skerrick of evidence to back them up, despite the fact nearly all cooler locales here have 0 active cases, a whopping 10 days away from winter?! They are unnecessarily panicking people with 100% unsubstantiated stories.

By the way, I voted for our current state government in the last election and every election before that, so don’t bother trying to put a political spin on my comments!

The biggest problem is that there's no real way at the moment to claim that the virus has been eliminated. That means that while there will be many places where there are ZERO known cases, there may be an undercurrent (bad word, sorry) of cases still lurking around. VERY dangerous, not least because it's well possible to be almost totally asymptomatic, also because a victim is at their most infectious before symptoms appear!

That means that all we need is one or two residual unknown and possibly asymptomatic cases to visit (eg) Torquay to go surfing, or to travel on a train from Melbourne to Geelong, (plus perhaps visiting a Macdonalds to get a meal!) and your previously unaffected area could then become a hot spot. And unless that's picked up VERY quickly and very belligerently dealt with we're back to square one.

The worries about a second wave are real. ALL of the epidemialogical modelling showed that. If you watched the press conference where Brendan Murphy showed the modelling it was present as a climbing slope on a graph of numbers, and he then stood in front of it to (I assume) not scare people.

[That line was there on the graphs. I can be certain of that because my daughter (who has a BSc in Medical Science and a PhD in same, plus she did a lot of work for the Australasian ICU specialists, spotted it as well and asked me if I knew what it was and we checked it out together). It meant that if you supressed the curve and then once cases were back to very small numbers you then released all checks... you'd be very badly off indeed.]

Strangely my perception of the same Australian media as you is the opposite. I see them encouraging people to treat the social distancing less seriously and to press for the relaxation of restrictions etc etc.


PS. Dan IS the man! Along with Gladys together they used their muscle (population) to force Scott from marketing to do something real (and not go to that rugby that Sunday! All of the other Premiers are doing remarkably well (IMHO), but leading the two largest States gives those two more power nationally than the others.

--
Captain Corella
60 Years a Fan

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CaptainCorella

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bonddm

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daspyknows

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bonddm

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CaptainCorella

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bonddm
We currently have a total of 100 deaths in Australia from a population of 25+ million, but our media still insists that the apocalypse is nigh!

The media insist a “second wave“ is coming in the winter. I live in one of the coldest municipalities on the mainland (Surf Coast) and winter is less than 2 weeks away.
We have a population here of 33,000+, but currently have 0 active cases!
The closest city (Geelong) has 0 active cases from a population of nearly 270,000!

There's an old saying along the lines of ... You pay your money and you make your choice. That's what Australia did - thanks to the firm stand taken by two State Premiers from opposing political parties.

In mid-March we were at almost the exact same position at the time as the UK and we had the choice either to clamp down hard on our way of life and hope that we had few deaths, but some hardship on the way. Or we could carry on regardless and expect many tens of thousands of deaths.

We chose to save lives. We can work our way out of recession, but we can't bring back the dead.

Of course that very low death count means that paradoxically to most of us it seems as if it's all been a big fizzer. A huge fuss about nothing. I get that.

In Australia the News today leads with details about the death of the 100th person since the start of the Pandemic- in many countries around the world they tell each day of the deaths of hundreds each day.

Look at the numbers elsewhere in the world. This, John Hopkins University site [www.arcgis.com] is a good place to start.

The UK acted only slightly slower (a matter of days) and only a bit less harshly - and they have had over 30,000 deaths. (That's the entire population of where you tell us you live).

That's why you live somewhere where there's a case count of Zero. Be thankful for that, don't curse it!

(And as for being cold.... up here in the Macedon Ranges we've been close to zero in the mornings - other than today - for the last 4 days. That's cold.)

I’ve mainly having a crack for the media for constantly running with a “second wave” in winter, despite the start of it being less than 2 weeks away! If that was going to be the case, shouldn’t you already be seeing signs of it in colder areas, rather than the complete opposite?! Canberra also has 0 active cases.

All it takes is one infected person to start the spread. That there are no cases means you should be saying we have been successful rather than we have overreacted IMHO

Please alert me to where I said we overreacted?! I am having a crack at the media for constantly publishing stories about “a second wave in winter” containing about as much evidence as there is for the existence of Bigfoot!

Am I just supposed to take as gospel articles by our media that don’t even provide a skerrick of evidence to back them up, despite the fact nearly all cooler locales here have 0 active cases, a whopping 10 days away from winter?! They are unnecessarily panicking people with 100% unsubstantiated stories.

By the way, I voted for our current state government in the last election and every election before that, so don’t bother trying to put a political spin on my comments!

The biggest problem is that there's no real way at the moment to claim that the virus has been eliminated. That means that while there will be many places where there are ZERO known cases, there may be an undercurrent (bad word, sorry) of cases still lurking around. VERY dangerous, not least because it's well possible to be almost totally asymptomatic, also because a victim is at their most infectious before symptoms appear!

That means that all we need is one or two residual unknown and possibly asymptomatic cases to visit (eg) Torquay to go surfing, or to travel on a train from Melbourne to Geelong, (plus perhaps visiting a Macdonalds to get a meal!) and your previously unaffected area could then become a hot spot. And unless that's picked up VERY quickly and very belligerently dealt with we're back to square one.

The worries about a second wave are real. ALL of the epidemialogical modelling showed that. If you watched the press conference where Brendan Murphy showed the modelling it was present as a climbing slope on a graph of numbers, and he then stood in front of it to (I assume) not scare people.

[That line was there on the graphs. I can be certain of that because my daughter (who has a BSc in Medical Science and a PhD in same, plus she did a lot of work for the Australasian ICU specialists, spotted it as well and asked me if I knew what it was and we checked it out together). It meant that if you supressed the curve and then once cases were back to very small numbers you then released all checks... you'd be very badly off indeed.]

Strangely my perception of the same Australian media as you is the opposite. I see them encouraging people to treat the social distancing less seriously and to press for the relaxation of restrictions etc etc.


PS. Dan IS the man! Along with Gladys together they used their muscle (population) to force Scott from marketing to do something real (and not go to that rugby that Sunday! All of the other Premiers are doing remarkably well (IMHO), but leading the two largest States gives those two more power nationally than the others.

I don’t doubt that a “second wave” is a possibility, but it’s these lazy assumptions (with no evidence) by the media that the winter weather will automatically bring it on that really grinds my gears! It’s total guesswork on their part.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-05-20 05:17 by bonddm.

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bonddm

I don’t doubt that a “second wave” is a possibility, but it’s these lazy assumptions (with no evidence) by the media that the winter weather will automatically bring it on that really grinds my gears! It’s total guesswork on their part.

Automatically is too strong. But it is highly likely! The evidence is based on the highly likely assumption that this virus will behave like both the Flu virus and the common cold virus and be better at surviving in winter conditions as against summer conditions.

It's why there's a Flu vaccination available in the autumn on the assumption that it's most needed in the winter.

--
Captain Corella
60 Years a Fan

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Nate
Yes of course someone could have the virus and not be showing symptoms but with all the new safety measures that will be introduced and the fact that modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters the same air filters that are used in operating theatres that remove 99.97% of impurities I think the risk will be low.
Nate

Over the recent years we have come to expect to get some sort of infection within a few days of flying.

I know that the HEPA filters are claimed to be fitted, but notwithstanding that, I have zero confidence in how effective they are in a real world.

--
Captain Corella
60 Years a Fan

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CaptainCorella

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Nate
Yes of course someone could have the virus and not be showing symptoms but with all the new safety measures that will be introduced and the fact that modern planes are already fitted with HEPA filters the same air filters that are used in operating theatres that remove 99.97% of impurities I think the risk will be low.
Nate

Over the recent years we have come to expect to get some sort of infection within a few days of flying.

I know that the HEPA filters are claimed to be fitted, but notwithstanding that, I have zero confidence in how effective they are in a real world.

Over the years I have gotten some of my worst colds after flying. Granted, the flights were packed.

This thread is now closed.

It has been great to have all the comments and reports from various places across this planet here. This thread have had 309,387 views and 4,787 posts since it started almost three months ago, on February 28. Unfortunately the corona virus took away the Stones Tour 2020. The virus will have us under pressure for still a long while. I have spent hours every day monitoring this thread, deleting political posts, explaining to people why political posts are not accepted here and so on.

The biggest challenge here has been the truly broken political trust in USA. I followed the four hours hearing at the US Congress last week. See link below to the complete hearing, and watch it for yourself. Through all the political statements in this hearing, I understood this thread would have to be closed soon, due to the lack of trust and cooperation among US politicians.

It would have been great if we could keep on talking about the challenges and experiences we have with the corona virus here. Still, that would have been impossible, as it is now. Too many want to play the blame game. Blame Biden. Blame Obama, Blame Trump, Blame WHO. Blame China. Blame the Democrats. Blame the Republicans. Such an endless number of posts about someone or something to blame. We just can't have it here.

There will be another wave. Trust me. Trust science. This is what every single independent immunologist and every single independent virolog and all health experts are saying. Be prepared. Take care. Hopefully, may be, we will see The Rolling Stones live some place in 2022. May be.

Rick Bright Testimony on Coronavirus Pandemic Response (c-span.org MAY 14, 2020)

Rick Bright, the recent director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) who filed a whistleblower complaint alleging he was forced out of his job, testified before the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health. Mr. Bright told lawmakers he believed his reassignment to the National Institutes of Health (NIH) was retaliation for his resistance to broadening the use of hydroxychloroquine without the proper safeguards in place. Mr. Bright criticized the Trump administration’s response to coronavirus pandemic, saying the country lacked a coordinated strategy. “Without better planning, 2020 could be the darkest winter in modern history,” he warned. The former BARDA director also said his warnings about the lack of personal protective equipment in the strategic national stockpile went unheeded.

Bjornulf



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-05-20 12:49 by bv.

This thread was closed on May 20. Half a year on, I will try to keep the thread open, to avoid other threads on IORR getting into corona virus discussions.

There is now a large second wave in several parts of the world. People have been trying to live like normal for some months, forgetting about how hard it is to keep the virus away. Feel free to tell how the status is in your country.

Please do not post political statements here. Facts and how things are please, not conspiracy theories and undocumented statements. Thank you.

Bjornulf

The post from yesterday in the "Stones' Future" Thread bears repeating. I hope this is acceptable.

My question: Does this mean that it will be years of dealing with Covid -19? Say more than an additional 2 years?


Sorry to bring bad news on a day when they say one of the vaccines may be 90% effective, but there is currently a mutant of the virus in Denmark, among mink farms, spreading back among people, and the vaccines in development may nyears?ot be that effective versus that mutant.

UK scientists seek mutant Covid samples from Danish mink farms (Guardian 8 Nov 2020)

Danish health authorities raised the alarm over the mutant virus last week and announced a cull of the nation’s 17 million mink as the Statens Serum Institut (SSI) in Copenhagen warned of potentially “serious consequences” for vaccines if it was allowed to spread internationally.

Tests in Denmark have picked up more than 200 people with coronavirus mutations linked to mink farms since June, but concern centres on a dozen cases in North Jutland of people who fell ill in September with a unique variant of the virus.

Known as “cluster five”, the variant has four separate mutations in the so-called spike protein that the virus uses to enter cells, and on which most vaccines are based.

Bjornulf



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-11-10 12:47 by Chris Fountain.

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Chris Fountain
The post from yesterday in the "Stones' Future" Thread bears repeating. I hope this is acceptable.

My question: Does this mean that it will be years of dealing with Covid -19? Say more than an additional 2 years?


Sorry to bring bad news on a day when they say one of the vaccines may be 90% effective, but there is currently a mutant of the virus in Denmark, among mink farms, spreading back among people, and the vaccines in development may nyears?ot be that effective versus that mutant.

UK scientists seek mutant Covid samples from Danish mink farms (Guardian 8 Nov 2020)

Danish health authorities raised the alarm over the mutant virus last week and announced a cull of the nation’s 17 million mink as the Statens Serum Institut (SSI) in Copenhagen warned of potentially “serious consequences” for vaccines if it was allowed to spread internationally.

Tests in Denmark have picked up more than 200 people with coronavirus mutations linked to mink farms since June, but concern centres on a dozen cases in North Jutland of people who fell ill in September with a unique variant of the virus.

Known as “cluster five”, the variant has four separate mutations in the so-called spike protein that the virus uses to enter cells, and on which most vaccines are based.

Bjornulf

If this is going to be a serious major issue like Covid-19 I'm afraid that mother nature is angry on us, and then it's a lost game. Like a German professor once said: "Eventually mother nature just throws us out, simple as that."



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-11-10 12:58 by TheflyingDutchman.

The Danish government's decision of killing 17 million minks was illegal. Now they're are rapidly trying to get a new law through, making that possible, according to Norwegian papers today.

The announcement of a vaccin is really good news. But it could take a year or even more before everyone gets vaccinated. In the mean time everyone needs to just follow a few rules to save lives. It’s that simple.

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Koen
The announcement of a vaccin is really good news. But it could take a year or even more before everyone gets vaccinated. In the mean time everyone needs to just follow a few rules to save lives. It’s that simple.

It's hopeful, and at this point the statistics in Holland are slightly going in the good direction. A pity there are still a lot of Virus-deniers that blow it for people that stick to the rules, the older weak people and people that lose their jobs.

The vaccine will be an important tool in slowing down the virus. Still, it is not a miracle cure. People would still need to wear masks, and keep a distance, for months still, until a majority of people who travel and meet are vaccinated.

We live in an open world, and people do travel. It is impossible to vaccinate the entire world population in a month or even in half a year. Some places there is a vaccine resistance up to 50% in the population. If you have a vaccine with 90% efficiency where just 50% do accept the vaccine then it will be just 0.9 x 0.5 = 45%. Then more than half of the population will still carry the virus. Not safe for people at risk, i.e. no tour, to translate into Stones terms.

The Mink problem is a worry to me. They say bats and mink are typically species who may host corona virus. China got lots of critics because they have live markets ("wet markets"), where living animals are stacked on top of each others, in cages, and we all know how a virus would transmit if we - humans - were stacked on top of each others in cages. In short, mink farms are as bad as the wet markets, in my opinion. Predators - wild animals - are stacked on top of each other, hundreds, and the virus will live there and spread, and it will mutate, and end up back in humans, who work at the mink farms. The Danish mink farms have been a source of virus mutations since this summer, and they did not bother to take action until the "cluster five" mutant appeared recently, a mutation that changed the corona virus shape in a way that makes the vaccines less efficient. There are probably mink farms all over the world, I don''t know. As long as we treat wild animals - who may host virus - this way, then any vaccine will be efficient just until the next major virus mutation change is out among farmers.

Good news there are many virus developers now, more than one hundred. There are several candidates close to approval. Some may even be efficient related to mutated corona virus. I think the next six months may give us an efficient virus in production scale, then if there is a highly mutated virus around, it may die out by itself, or the current virus manufacturers may update their vaccines, like the flu vaccine is updated every season.

It is in the nature of the authorities to keep us optimistic. We need to see the light at the end of the tunnel. The vaccine is such a light. Still, they need to keep us focused while we wait for the virus, otherwise hundreds of thousands, millions, will die meanwhile, because we allowed for business as usual, while the older generation died. Wearing a mask and keeping a distance of at least 2m i.e. six feet are essential this winter.

Bjornulf

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bv
Some places there is a vaccine resistance up to 50% in the population. If you have a vaccine with 90% efficiency where just 50% do accept the vaccine then it will be just 0.9 x 0.5 = 45%.

(A better term than "vaccine resistance" might be "vaccine reluctance".)
In any case, I don't think we really know whether that vaccine reluctance is +/- 50%.
Let's hope that it's not that high...

Suppose vaccine reluctance is 40%, not 50% ...
That would mean:
0.9 x (1.0 - 0.4) = 0.9 x 0.6 = 54% overall effectivity

That's an improvement, and it brings the overall effectivity > 0.5 ...
Shows the importance of convincing more people to get the vaccine when it's available and proven safe.



Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 2020-11-10 18:46 by schillid.

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bv

The Mink problem is a worry to me. They say bats and mink are typically species who may host corona virus.

There were also minks infected since 17-Aug-2020 in the USA, since spring 2020 also (large) cats and some type of dogs - [www.aphis.usda.gov] . Hopefully the mutation(s) are only slight so that the vaccine can be adjusted.


Germany's Top-Virologist Christian Drosten, 10-Nov-2020, 5:02pm:

"Denmark is currently taking drastic action against a corona variant that first appeared in minks and occasionally passed to humans in late summer. Millions of fur animals are being killed. Virologist Drosten sees this mainly as a precautionary measure on the part of politicians. In his opinion, the mutated corona virus is not spreading quickly at the moment: 'It is quite possible that it has long since ceased to circulate in humans'. Drosten does not see any danger for vaccine development through virus mutations at present." - [www.NDR.de] .



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-11-11 00:55 by Irix.

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TheflyingDutchman

Quote
Koen
The announcement of a vaccin is really good news. But it could take a year or even more before everyone gets vaccinated. In the mean time everyone needs to just follow a few rules to save lives. It’s that simple.

It's hopeful, and at this point the statistics in Holland are slightly going in the good direction. A pity there are still a lot of Virus-deniers that blow it for people that stick to the rules, the older weak people and people that lose their jobs.

Th problem with statistics is that you have to report the full picture, otherwise the meaning of data becomes very subjective.
You mention that the statistics are slightly going in the good direction, but what does that mean?
There are indeed less people testing positive, but ... the number of people being tested has also decreased and then it's obvious that you find less people being tested positive. The other way around results are also affected off course. The R factor should go down well below 1.0 and then we are getting somewhere.

Norway corona virus status Tuesday November 10:

It is now half a year since I reported here about the status of the corona virus from my home place. As Europe opened up gradually during April and May, people went on holidays in our own country during July. Shops, hotels, bars and restaurants were open. It was business as usual. I met my family in cohorts, i.e. we kept 1-2 meters apart at family parties outdoor, in case some of us were carrying the virus. Getting a hug from my youngest granddaughter was probably not completely in order, but it was great after months and months of distance and isolation.

August brought colder weather, and we were not able to meet outside for family parties by the end of the month.

September was cold and wet, people started to move inside, with the outdoor habits of the summer, no masks, no distance, no wonder the virus enjoyed the time of September.

October I started to scan my thousands of old paper photos from the 90's and on, those taken before I got a digital camera. It is a task that is done with patience. It takes a minute or so to scan a single picture, and so far I have scanned may be 1200 pictures. Still working. Two of the scans are shown in this post. Memories from travels.

October started with very very low covid-19 numbers in Norway. In March we had more than 300 in hospital with covid-19. Mid July were were down to almost zero, with just three - 3 - people in hospital with covid-19 in Norway. During September we had among the lowest corona virus numbers in Europe, per 100,000 population. Then the numbers started to grow slowly. Four weeks ago, early Oct, there were 20 people in hospital, and every week since that, another 20 have been added. Now we have 100 people in hospital with Covid. It is getting serious, and people hear the alarm bells ringing.

November 5 i.e. Thursday last week was the turning point. Our leaders had been running press conferences every day by then, with more rules every day. On Nov 5 they announced new rules which basically made a mask mandate in public places, in the Oslo region, shutting down alcohol services, forcing home office whenever possible, and increasing the social distance from one into two meters to people at risk, including anyone age 65+. This was the shift, just like March 12 was the lock down date this spring.

During the lock down this spring I did my shopping at 8am one time per week, where few other customers at the shops. Since then, this early morning "safe" routine just vanished into shopping at any hours. This week changed it all. I decided to shop morning at 8am only. Yesterday the number of people with a masks at the grocery store had suddenly changed from almost nobody with a mask, into may be 50/50. Today, just 24 hours later, almost everyone had a mask, I would say 80% or more. By the end of the week, almost everyone will have a mask here. We do what we are told. Hopefully we will see the numbers go down in 2-3 weeks time.

Below, two pictures from my scanning project. The first, from Mustang Harry, right next to Madison Square Garden, NYC, USA, January 1998, where we spend time between the three shows there. The other photo is from a travel I had to Denmark, when I was lucky to see Mick Taylor performing two solo shows on the very same day, first one by the sea near Copenhagen Airport early afternoon, then another show at a festival up north in the evening.





Bjornulf

Quote
georgie48

Quote
TheflyingDutchman

Quote
Koen
The announcement of a vaccin is really good news. But it could take a year or even more before everyone gets vaccinated. In the mean time everyone needs to just follow a few rules to save lives. It’s that simple.

It's hopeful, and at this point the statistics in Holland are slightly going in the good direction. A pity there are still a lot of Virus-deniers that blow it for people that stick to the rules, the older weak people and people that lose their jobs.

Th problem with statistics is that you have to report the full picture, otherwise the meaning of data becomes very subjective.
You mention that the statistics are slightly going in the good direction, but what does that mean?
There are indeed less people testing positive, but ... the number of people being tested has also decreased and then it's obvious that you find less people being tested positive. The other way around results are also affected off course. The R factor should go down well below 1.0 and then we are getting somewhere.

I know, but the pressure in the Hospitals is decreasing a bit. That's at least something.

Quote
TheflyingDutchman

Quote
georgie48

Quote
TheflyingDutchman

Quote
Koen
The announcement of a vaccin is really good news. But it could take a year or even more before everyone gets vaccinated. In the mean time everyone needs to just follow a few rules to save lives. It’s that simple.

It's hopeful, and at this point the statistics in Holland are slightly going in the good direction. A pity there are still a lot of Virus-deniers that blow it for people that stick to the rules, the older weak people and people that lose their jobs.

Th problem with statistics is that you have to report the full picture, otherwise the meaning of data becomes very subjective.
You mention that the statistics are slightly going in the good direction, but what does that mean?
There are indeed less people testing positive, but ... the number of people being tested has also decreased and then it's obvious that you find less people being tested positive. The other way around results are also affected off course. The R factor should go down well below 1.0 and then we are getting somewhere.

I know, but the pressure in the Hospitals is decreasing a bit. That's at least something.

It's now < 1.0 in NL.