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Re: OT: 2024 Hurricane Season
Posted by: GasLightStreet ()
Date: July 8, 2024 10:06

Anyone here in the Houston, TX area?

Beryl has been an incredibly destructive hurricane in the Caribbean. Weakened to a tropical storm during her pass over the Yucatan, she weakened to a tropical storm but as of right now, and recently, about 2 am CDT in the US, she's an 80 mph cat 1 (last I saw) hurricane and close to landfall near or at Matagorda Bay, TX, around 9 Monday morning with an expected storm surge of 7 feet (2.1336 meters).

Nothing terrible.

There's been all kinds of social media drama-hype of an "apocalyptic storm" and "national tragedy" - ridiculous. With as much coverage on Twitter etc it's flat out mind numbing that people have no clue. It's not like what happened in the Caribbean, initially, 165 mph winds (265.542 km).

Re: OT: 2024 Hurricane Season
Posted by: Spud ()
Date: July 8, 2024 10:57

Weather forecasters, local authorities and news media are these days very scared about being accused of not giving sufficient indication or warning of subsequently life threatening storms.

On balance you have to say "better safe than sorry."

Re: OT: 2024 Hurricane Season
Posted by: GasLightStreet ()
Date: July 9, 2024 08:29

Quote
Spud
Weather forecasters, local authorities and news media are these days very scared about being accused of not giving sufficient indication or warning of subsequently life threatening storms.

On balance you have to say "better safe than sorry."

Forecasts and warnings for Beryl were extremely accurate. The only people in the dark about Beryl were at Lakewood Church, making sure the doors were locked.

Aside from intensity, which is still impossible to predict, the forecasts for Beryl were right on.

As Beryl moves NE and floods people they'll say WE HAD NO IDEA when that is complete bunk.

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: Rockman ()
Date: July 9, 2024 09:01



Drumcondra 6.56am ----- 08 July 2024



ROCKMAN

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: northof49 ()
Date: August 7, 2024 09:16

Hey, DG, this might be worth a look-see Wednesday afternoon. Your neck of the woods, no?

[www.cbc.ca]

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: Rockman ()
Date: August 15, 2024 05:42



Drumcondra 6.57 am .......... 15 august 2024



ROCKMAN

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: GasLightStreet ()
Date: September 11, 2024 09:33

I won't bore anyone with any links because they aren't static but...

A LOT of people have said, The 2024 hurricane season is a bust. Forecasters were WRONG!

FEAR MONGERS!

Etc blah blah blah.

It's peak time, absolutely, historically, hurricane season and...!!!???

Ha ha.

Hurricane Francine is in the Gulf Of Mexico and behaving a bit odd. Hurricane watch where I live. Whatever. Been through this way too many times to worry. So the power goes out for a few days - whatever.

A lot more to happen between now and November 15.

A lot of weird things have been happening but it's all shifting. The predicted amount of named storms may not happen - the high expectations were for the US, specifically, not overall, being the worst season expected, but seeing that time is running out for 20 something named storms, the amount of major hurricanes predicted will very likely come true.

Which is a bit above average.

Major hurricanes above average is way more concerning than total named storms.

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: GasLightStreet ()
Date: September 13, 2024 20:33

Where I live...




Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: SomeTorontoGirl ()
Date: September 22, 2024 17:50

Equinox. ‘Equal night.’ %&$@#!

[youtu.be]


Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: Rockman ()
Date: September 23, 2024 00:42



Drumcondra 6.16 am .......... 22 September 2024



ROCKMAN

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: Rockman ()
Date: September 27, 2024 00:16



Surf's up .....


Drumcondra 6.20 am .......... 27 September 2024



ROCKMAN

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: GasLightStreet ()
Date: October 6, 2024 08:23

Curious.

Aside from Rockman's obsession with sunsets, which is not weather, is anyone concerned about what recently happened in the Gulf Of Mexico from Hurricane Helene through Florida into Georgia, and then just being a gob of rain for North and South Carolina and Tennessee?

Or with what's going on in the Gulf Of Mexico with Tampa about to get changed, what just happened on the Pacific side of Mexico, twice, or Nepal?

I say "concerned" in meaning of interested, curious, wondering WTF or worried.

There are things we can do here to help with who needs it but... so many people said the 2024 hurricane season was dead.

Since September 9 there's been 8 named tropical cyclones - and one of them, as Tropical Storm Kirk but more likely the remnants of Kirk, will be visiting Europe very soon.

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: Rockman ()
Date: October 6, 2024 09:00

.... sunrises actually am...
Theyre here ta lighten up the thread .... get it lighten up HHHaaaaaa



ROCKMAN

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: georgie48 ()
Date: October 6, 2024 10:36

Quote
GasLightStreet
Curious.

Aside from Rockman's obsession with sunsets, which is not weather, is anyone concerned about what recently happened in the Gulf Of Mexico from Hurricane Helene through Florida into Georgia, and then just being a gob of rain for North and South Carolina and Tennessee?

Or with what's going on in the Gulf Of Mexico with Tampa about to get changed, what just happened on the Pacific side of Mexico, twice, or Nepal?

I say "concerned" in meaning of interested, curious, wondering WTF or worried.

There are things we can do here to help with who needs it but... so many people said the 2024 hurricane season was dead.

Since September 9 there's been 8 named tropical cyclones - and one of them, as Tropical Storm Kirk but more likely the remnants of Kirk, will be visiting Europe very soon.

Hi GLS,

I've been interested in weather behaviour for many decades (learned it from mother's side (farmers).
It's interesting to make predictions (not always influenced by the experts).
Also, what does the weather tell us. Well, it told me a hell of a lot over the decades.
Your current hurricane developments (terrible for those whose lives get destroyed) are much in line with what happens in eastern Asia. More frequent, more powerful, not just one year but many years in a row now. Global warming is getting some(?) additional help from the sun with its 11 years cycle temper, probably topping again in 2025. And we, we're helpless.

In my country they take environmental improvements very serious (take your own cup/mug along if you want a free coffee in the hospital ... etc. etc.), where in the USA/Canada (hotels f.i. cups, cups, cups and other stuff) as well as in Japan (everything has to be wrapped in nice, even expensive material for culture sake) they are still produce millions on tons of actually useless waste. And this what I saw just this year during my travels (using airpanes confused smileyeye rolling smiley)
18 million Dutch against 500 million of the above countries (and I'm not even counting Chinese, Indians, South-East Asians ... billions) have no chance whatsoever.
We f*ck up the oceans now for about a 100 years and more, so what can we expect ...
I'd rather enjoy Rockman's beautiful images (Luckily representing peaceful, beautiful weather, but still take my own cup to the hospital winking smiley

smileys with beer

I'm a GHOST living in a ghost town

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: SomeTorontoGirl ()
Date: October 6, 2024 13:55



Solidarity, from Up Over to Down Under.


Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: GasLightStreet ()
Date: October 6, 2024 19:42

Quote
Rockman
.... sunrises actually am...
Theyre here ta lighten up the thread .... get it lighten up HHHaaaaaa

Ha ha yeah geezus that's silly!

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: GasLightStreet ()
Date: October 6, 2024 19:48

Quote
georgie48
Quote
GasLightStreet
Curious.

Aside from Rockman's obsession with sunsets, which is not weather, is anyone concerned about what recently happened in the Gulf Of Mexico from Hurricane Helene through Florida into Georgia, and then just being a gob of rain for North and South Carolina and Tennessee?

Or with what's going on in the Gulf Of Mexico with Tampa about to get changed, what just happened on the Pacific side of Mexico, twice, or Nepal?

I say "concerned" in meaning of interested, curious, wondering WTF or worried.

There are things we can do here to help with who needs it but... so many people said the 2024 hurricane season was dead.

Since September 9 there's been 8 named tropical cyclones - and one of them, as Tropical Storm Kirk but more likely the remnants of Kirk, will be visiting Europe very soon.

Hi GLS,

I've been interested in weather behaviour for many decades (learned it from mother's side (farmers).
It's interesting to make predictions (not always influenced by the experts).
Also, what does the weather tell us. Well, it told me a hell of a lot over the decades.
Your current hurricane developments (terrible for those whose lives get destroyed) are much in line with what happens in eastern Asia. More frequent, more powerful, not just one year but many years in a row now. Global warming is getting some(?) additional help from the sun with its 11 years cycle temper, probably topping again in 2025. And we, we're helpless.

In my country they take environmental improvements very serious (take your own cup/mug along if you want a free coffee in the hospital ... etc. etc.), where in the USA/Canada (hotels f.i. cups, cups, cups and other stuff) as well as in Japan (everything has to be wrapped in nice, even expensive material for culture sake) they are still produce millions on tons of actually useless waste. And this what I saw just this year during my travels (using airpanes confused smileyeye rolling smiley)
18 million Dutch against 500 million of the above countries (and I'm not even counting Chinese, Indians, South-East Asians ... billions) have no chance whatsoever.
We f*ck up the oceans now for about a 100 years and more, so what can we expect ...
I'd rather enjoy Rockman's beautiful images (Luckily representing peaceful, beautiful weather, but still take my own cup to the hospital winking smiley

smileys with beer

It is amazing, truly, how plastic continues to be used in excess, especially when it comes to something inside of something that's wrapped, which I've never understood. However plastic bottles, plant containers, milk and water and food whatever - almost none of that gets recycled in the United States, only aluminum/tin.

For years I was convinced that greed would wipe out humans. Aside from the recent boom in stupidity via social media it's really starting to look like plastic will be the root cause of human extinction.

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Date: October 6, 2024 20:15

Quote
GasLightStreet

For years I was convinced that greed would wipe out humans. Aside from the recent boom in stupidity via social media it's really starting to look like plastic will be the root cause of human extinction.

In the end mother nature throws us out -eventually. Simple as that.

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: GasLightStreet ()
Date: October 6, 2024 20:40

Quote
TheflyingDutchman
Quote
GasLightStreet

For years I was convinced that greed would wipe out humans. Aside from the recent boom in stupidity via social media it's really starting to look like plastic will be the root cause of human extinction.

In the end mother nature throws us out -eventually. Simple as that.

Ha! Well, kinda seems like it's speeding up lately - and Tuesday/Wednesday will be interesting with Milton potentially getting up to a category 5.

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: GasLightStreet ()
Date: October 7, 2024 20:07

Anyone on the west coast and the peninsula of Florida knows about what's going to happen Wednesday.

Hurricane Milton bombed out to 160 mph winds (257 km), the fastest strengthening for a tropical system ever (yesterday it became a hurricane in the evening). Rapid Intensification is defined as a sustained wind increase of a minimum of 35 mph increase (55 km) in a 24 hour period.

Sea Surface Temps are averaging 86°F (30° C). Hurricane Dorian (2019) sat over the same water temperature and had 185 mph winds (297 km). The Ocean Heat Content is measured in the water column to wherever the minimum temperature of 79°F (approximately 26° C), the minimum temperature for a tropical cyclone to form, is found. The average water column depth is 150 feet (45 meters).

Wherever Milton makes landfall will have a storm surge approaching 20 feet (just over 6 meters). Milton is expected to weaken down to a category 3, which is what Katrina was when she hit Mississippi, a day earlier being a 5.

If Milton makes landfall just north of St Petersburg/Tampa... it's going to be beyond bad. They already got smacked by Helene.

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: treaclefingers ()
Date: October 7, 2024 20:14

Quote
GasLightStreet
Anyone on the west coast and the peninsula of Florida knows about what's going to happen Wednesday.

Hurricane Milton bombed out to 160 mph winds (257 km), the fastest strengthening for a tropical system ever (yesterday it became a hurricane in the evening). Rapid Intensification is defined as a sustained wind increase of a minimum of 35 mph increase (55 km) in a 24 hour period.

Sea Surface Temps are averaging 86°F (30° C). Hurricane Dorian (2019) sat over the same water temperature and had 185 mph winds (297 km). The Ocean Heat Content is measured in the water column to wherever the minimum temperature of 79°F (approximately 26° C), the minimum temperature for a tropical cyclone to form, is found. The average water column depth is 150 feet (45 meters).

Wherever Milton makes landfall will have a storm surge approaching 20 feet (just over 6 meters). Milton is expected to weaken down to a category 3, which is what Katrina was when she hit Mississippi, a day earlier being a 5.

If Milton makes landfall just north of St Petersburg/Tampa... it's going to be beyond bad. They already got smacked by Helene.

This is brutal. I can't believe sea surface temperature is that high. The worst is that this is only the beginning, it's only going to get worse over the next several years.

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: GasLightStreet ()
Date: October 7, 2024 20:47

Parts of the Gulf Of Mexico were in the 90s this summer but that happens every summer where it's shallow.

Water temps have dropped just a couple of degrees in the deep water (parts of the GOM got up to 89). It takes a long time for it to cool off. By December it's generally below 70 but if you draw a line from Key West all the way across it pretty much stays at 80 because of the Loop Current.

One thing, though: the water could be 100°F but a million other things need to happen. That didn't happen from mid/late August through until the day before the peak of hurricane season (September 10).

That's very strange. However, a lot of unusual things were happening to put a lid on development. And now it's back to normal: 3 hurricanes in the Atlantic for the first time since 2018 and for the first time ever in October, with Kirk being the furthest eastern major hurricane in October ever. And some other record and probably a few more.

Is that climate change? I dunno. The ocean stays warm until late November. It's difficult to pinpoint if climate change effects hurricanes. However, lately it's more common for storms to even be major hurricanes in November, which is extremely unusual.

Except for the fact that where they happen conditions are generally favorable 12 months of the year.

2024 wasn't really any different from recent seasons except for the lull: I forget which one it was but the season was ahead of average until whatever, then it fell way off.

It's caught up. Michael made landfall in the Florida panhandle October 10, 2018. with 160 mph winds. Milton, the name that replaced Michael (same name list this year) will be landfalling on October 9 but not as a 5 (at least that's the forecast).

A model shows another hurricane coming out of the Caribbean and hitting near Tampa about October 17. The models have been pretty good this year.

Milton now up to 175 mph winds.

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: Rocky Dijon ()
Date: October 9, 2024 00:29

I fall into the category of concerned and worried. Our oldest girl and her family moved back to Ohio from Florida this summer. Her big brother is still in the Tampa area with other family. Some people choose not to leave despite warnings. Others do not have the ability to leave.

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: GasLightStreet ()
Date: October 9, 2024 08:54

Quote
Rocky Dijon
I fall into the category of concerned and worried. Our oldest girl and her family moved back to Ohio from Florida this summer. Her big brother is still in the Tampa area with other family. Some people choose not to leave despite warnings. Others do not have the ability to leave.

Katrina 2024. For Tampa. If it landfalls there.

However, as of tonight, 10-9-2024, Milton went down to a 4 and then up to a 5 with 165 mph winds and is headed a bit south of Tampa.

Milton's max winds will remain far away from Florida. Wind speeds will bounce around between 160 and 180 as Milton passes through the Loop Current, although that's really a moot point since that entire area of the Gulf Of Mexico is 87F.

A category 5 needs a sea surface temperature of 82F. And about 10 other things to work.

So many things go in to making a category 5 hurricane. Kinda like a Stones or U2 stadium show - there's a lot more going on than just on stage.

A lot of talk about "the strongest since"... because of pressure. Pressure does not equate to strength, which is not measured by sustained winds for some asinine reason. And plenty of other hurricanes higher than 180 mph.

Remove all aspects of a tropical cyclone, regardless of it being called a hurricane or typhoon, and only factor in pressure - the lowest pressure observed, Typhoon Tip, still would only raise the sea level up to a foot and a half, basically.

Storm surge is 100% wind driven/created.

Pressure is an indicator of strength yet so many hurricanes don't "follow" the pressure to completely max out (Patricia was 215 mph, the highest recorded on Earth, with the second lowest pressure ever recorded at 872 - Typhoon Tip was 870... with 190 mph winds - which Hurricane Allen did in 1980 - in the Gulf Of Mexico - with a pressure of 899).

The very same people that talk about "the strongest ever because of pressure" constantly fail at observing sustained winds and storm surge and have a completely arbitrary high for Katrina's storm surge at 28 feet.

Quite a ways away from what happened, which maxed out at 41.5 feet.

They completely missed out on Hurricane Dorian. I saw the sea surface temperatures and I figured out what was going to happen. Yet the NHC and NWS and NOAA and whoever else constantly downplay/underestimate categorical winds (storm surge is always a guess).

I suppose if the NHC said R and only 3 happened... bathymetry is not unknown and combine it with topography of a region - yet storm surge is generally downplayed.

Which makes zero sense.

Oh. Right. "What if they're wrong - we evacuated for nothing."

Ehhhhh... be glad you split. It's not what happens during the storm, it's the aftermath.

Is climate change why Milton bombed out? I doubt it. Same with Helene's remnants in the Tennessee Valley. That has historically happened.

A hurricane bombing out in October has happened before.

It's astounding how many clueless people there are on Twitter (sorry, uhhhh, x) and FaceBook and YouTube...

Tin foil hatters going on about cloud seeding making Helene strong. Eh, cloud seeding is to induce rain. Hurricanes gain strength from ocean heat content and pressure variances - zero to do with rain.

Everybody got to go.

Landfall north of Sarasota with sustained winds at 125-130 mph - stronger than Katrina's winds at landfall in Mississippi.

Big deal. It's the storm surge that's an issue. 15-20 feet in Tampa - if Milton hits there.

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Date: October 12, 2024 10:09

Hey Rockman, aint been here in a few years. Surprised you can still be bothered. You are wasted here imo. Nice pics, as always

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: Rockman ()
Date: October 12, 2024 10:20

HHhaaaa.., wasted .... where should i be ?????



ROCKMAN

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: Rocky Dijon ()
Date: October 12, 2024 17:51

While many of us waver, Terry is as constant as the moon and stars. IORR can chart his course by him and his Some Kind of Stones Connections.

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: Rockman ()
Date: October 12, 2024 22:14

Aaaaawlovely words there Rocky ....
Might have to have them framed ...

But believe me i do often stagger get off the beaten track .... hhhhhaaaa

Stay safe wont ya



ROCKMAN

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: bv ()
Date: October 13, 2024 14:13

Thanks Rockman! There are some fantastic colours you are waking up to at Drumcondra!

Bjornulf

Re: OT: Weather around the world
Posted by: Rockman ()
Date: October 14, 2024 03:33

Pleasure Bjørnulf .... Thank you.. glad you enjoy them.
Another message I'll have to frame ... HHHhaaa

TAKE CARE



ROCKMAN

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