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Hairball
Lots of material covered in this article via CNN - US Covid-19, but this portion is specific to herd immunity:
"The IHME team wrote they do not expect the country will reach herd immunity before next winter"
5.5% of US is fully vaccinated
While vaccinations are ongoing, it's unlikely they'll help the US reach herd immunity levels any time soon. So far, more than 42.8 million Americans have received at least the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine,
according to CDC data. More than 17.8 million people have been fully vaccinated. That's about 5.5% of the US population.
Herd immunity is reached when the majority of the population becomes immune to an infectious disease -- either through infection and recovery or through vaccination. Fauci estimates between 70% to 85% of the US population needs to be immune for herd immunity to take effect against the virus. The IHME team wrote they do not expect the country will reach herd immunity before next winter. "The model suggests that we should have a quiet summer," IHME Director Dr. Chris Murray told CNN Friday. "But we know Covid's really seasonal, so when the next winter rolls around, we need to have a much higher level of protection to stop Covid in its tracks than we're likely to achieve."
To speed up getting at least the first doses into arms, the US should consider delaying the second dose of vaccines, another expert said. "Everybody needs a second dose, there's no question about that," Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, said Friday. "I think the question is, right now we wait four weeks between first and second dose. What if we went six weeks or eight weeks or 10 weeks -- not much longer than that." His comments came the same day two top US officials -- Andy Slavitt, senior adviser to the White House Covid-19 response team and Fauci -- said they don't think the US should delay or skip second vaccine doses. Jha says his suggestion is middle ground to vaccinate more high-risk people quickly.
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kovachQuote
Hairball
Lots of material covered in this article via CNN - US Covid-19, but this portion is specific to herd immunity:
"The IHME team wrote they do not expect the country will reach herd immunity before next winter"
5.5% of US is fully vaccinated
While vaccinations are ongoing, it's unlikely they'll help the US reach herd immunity levels any time soon. So far, more than 42.8 million Americans have received at least the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine,
according to CDC data. More than 17.8 million people have been fully vaccinated. That's about 5.5% of the US population.
Herd immunity is reached when the majority of the population becomes immune to an infectious disease -- either through infection and recovery or through vaccination. Fauci estimates between 70% to 85% of the US population needs to be immune for herd immunity to take effect against the virus. The IHME team wrote they do not expect the country will reach herd immunity before next winter. "The model suggests that we should have a quiet summer," IHME Director Dr. Chris Murray told CNN Friday. "But we know Covid's really seasonal, so when the next winter rolls around, we need to have a much higher level of protection to stop Covid in its tracks than we're likely to achieve."
To speed up getting at least the first doses into arms, the US should consider delaying the second dose of vaccines, another expert said. "Everybody needs a second dose, there's no question about that," Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, said Friday. "I think the question is, right now we wait four weeks between first and second dose. What if we went six weeks or eight weeks or 10 weeks -- not much longer than that." His comments came the same day two top US officials -- Andy Slavitt, senior adviser to the White House Covid-19 response team and Fauci -- said they don't think the US should delay or skip second vaccine doses. Jha says his suggestion is middle ground to vaccinate more high-risk people quickly.
Another article, different doctor, similar suggestions:
Herd Immunity
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bv
The coronavirus is going to stick around forever. Get ready for the new normal (Insider Feb 11, 2020)
The spread of coronavirus variants means COVID-19 will likely be around forever.
People might require regular booster shots to fight new variants of the virus.
But experts say it's impossible to vaccinate everyone yearly, so the virus will continue to circulate.
Despite this uncertainty, most scientists have accepted an unfortunate truth: The coronavirus will likely be part of our lives forever, though the pandemic phase will eventually end. Our best hope is for it to turn into a mild, flu-like illness rather than a deadlier, long-term threat.
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bv
The coronavirus is going to stick around forever. Get ready for the new normal (Insider Feb 11, 2020)
The spread of coronavirus variants means COVID-19 will likely be around forever.
People might require regular booster shots to fight new variants of the virus.
But experts say it's impossible to vaccinate everyone yearly, so the virus will continue to circulate.
Despite this uncertainty, most scientists have accepted an unfortunate truth: The coronavirus will likely be part of our lives forever, though the pandemic phase will eventually end. Our best hope is for it to turn into a mild, flu-like illness rather than a deadlier, long-term threat.
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makemeburnthecandle
I would recommend specific sections at concert venues for vaccinated (good seats) and unvaccinated (back and upper levels) attendees with a couple of empty buffer sections as needed between them.
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makemeburnthecandle
I would recommend specific sections at concert venues for vaccinated (good seats) and unvaccinated (back and upper levels) attendees with a couple of empty buffer sections as needed between them.
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Hairball
Can't find a link to story, but last night on one of the news channels an expert was talking about the fact that some countries either haven't even begun the vaccination process,
or have very small amounts of the vaccine, and that those particular countries are basically breeding grounds (or "petri dishes" as he called them) for new mutations and variants to evolve continuously.
These mutations will undoubtedly circulate to other countries he said, and will continue to spread while new variants continue to evolve in the unvaccinated areas.
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Nate
Here in the U.K. the government has just announced a plan culminating in all Covid restrictions being lifted by 21st June subject to certain conditions being met along the way.
This could of course be delayed but if everything goes to plan then here in the U.K. we will have events with stadiums full of people with no restrictions this summer.
Nate
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BeastQuote
Hairball
Can't find a link to story, but last night on one of the news channels an expert was talking about the fact that some countries either haven't even begun the vaccination process,
or have very small amounts of the vaccine, and that those particular countries are basically breeding grounds (or "petri dishes" as he called them) for new mutations and variants to evolve continuously.
These mutations will undoubtedly circulate to other countries he said, and will continue to spread while new variants continue to evolve in the unvaccinated areas.
Of the 128 million vaccine doses administered so far, more than three quarters of those vaccinations are in just 10 countries that account for 60% of global GDP.
As of today, almost 130 countries, with 2.5 billion people, are yet to administer a single dose.
This self-defeating strategy will cost lives and livelihoods, give the virus further opportunity to mutate and evade vaccines and will undermine a global economic recovery.
COVID-19 has shown that our fates are inextricably linked. Whether we win or lose, we will do so together.
The above are extracts from this joint WHO/UNICEF statement issued on 10 February:
[www.who.int]
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Big Al
Whilst it’s marvellous to read that the government is hoping that here in the U.K., we’ll be back to ‘normal’ by 21 June, I’m afraid to say that I’ll believe it only once it happens. This pandemic has been far too much of an up-and-down rollercoaster of emotion; some very personal to me. I sincerely hope, but I’m sceptical. What I really do want to reopen, no matter what, is my barber. The beard needs shaping. They’ll open in April.
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georgie48
I’m fully in line with you. So far our government is hesitant. Things appear to be stable, but experts see signs of a third wave under the surface so the lockdown will be extended with three more weeks as of march 3rd. Barbers may be open again under strict rules. Make sure you make a photo of your beard. Who knows what the future brings
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Big Al
Whilst it’s marvellous to read that the government is hoping that here in the U.K., we’ll be back to ‘normal’ by 21 June, I’m afraid to say that I’ll believe it only once it happens. This pandemic has been far too much of an up-and-down rollercoaster of emotion; some very personal to me. I sincerely hope, but I’m sceptical. What I really do want to reopen, no matter what, is my barber. The beard needs shaping. They’ll open in April.