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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Hairball ()
Date: February 21, 2021 21:00

Quote
kovach
Very interesting article:

Dr. Says U.S. Will Have Herd Immunity by April


Lots of material covered in this article via CNN - US Covid-19, but this portion is specific to herd immunity:

"The IHME team wrote they do not expect the country will reach herd immunity before next winter"

5.5% of US is fully vaccinated
While vaccinations are ongoing, it's unlikely they'll help the US reach herd immunity levels any time soon. So far, more than 42.8 million Americans have received at least the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine,
according to CDC data. More than 17.8 million people have been fully vaccinated. That's about 5.5% of the US population.

Herd immunity is reached when the majority of the population becomes immune to an infectious disease -- either through infection and recovery or through vaccination. Fauci estimates between 70% to 85% of the US population needs to be immune for herd immunity to take effect against the virus. The IHME team wrote they do not expect the country will reach herd immunity before next winter. "The model suggests that we should have a quiet summer," IHME Director Dr. Chris Murray told CNN Friday. "But we know Covid's really seasonal, so when the next winter rolls around, we need to have a much higher level of protection to stop Covid in its tracks than we're likely to achieve."

To speed up getting at least the first doses into arms, the US should consider delaying the second dose of vaccines, another expert said. "Everybody needs a second dose, there's no question about that," Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, said Friday. "I think the question is, right now we wait four weeks between first and second dose. What if we went six weeks or eight weeks or 10 weeks -- not much longer than that." His comments came the same day two top US officials -- Andy Slavitt, senior adviser to the White House Covid-19 response team and Fauci -- said they don't think the US should delay or skip second vaccine doses. Jha says his suggestion is middle ground to vaccinate more high-risk people quickly.

_____________________________________________________________
Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021-02-21 21:03 by Hairball.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: MisterDDDD ()
Date: February 21, 2021 21:43

An important and critical debate as whether to give more people a first shot vs completing both shots with these vaccines.
With the latest data and studies out of Israel and the US, it's looking more and more like giving more people the first shot before distributing mass second shots may be more effective.

Israel’s Early Vaccine Data Offers Hope
Initial studies show a significant drop in infections and hospitalizations after just one dose, and very few cases after two. Experts caution that the results are preliminary.

JERUSALEM — Israel, which leads the world in vaccinating its population against the coronavirus, has produced some encouraging news: Early results show a significant drop in infection after just one shot of a two-dose vaccine, and better than expected results after both doses.
Public health experts caution that the data, based on the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, is preliminary and has not been subjected to clinical trials. Even so, Dr. Anat Ekka Zohar, vice president of Maccabi Health Services, one of the Israeli health maintenance organizations that released the data, called it “very encouraging.”

In the first early report, Clalit, Israel’s largest health fund, compared 200,000 people aged 60 or over who received a first dose of the vaccine to a matched group of 200,000 who had not been vaccinated yet. It said that 14 to 18 days after their shots, the partially vaccinated patients were 33 percent less likely to be infected.
[www.nytimes.com]

US study suggests efficacy of 1st Pfizer, Moderna shot increases with time
Mayo Clinic findings show vaccine gives 75% protection 15 days after 1st dose, rising to 83% after 36 days; figure climbs to 89% for people who received both doses
Vaccinated people are at far less risk of COVID-19 infection even before receiving their second dose, a new US study has found, backing up Israeli research on one of the most burning international vaccine questions.
The Mayo Clinic figures showed the same efficacy rate as those released by Tel Aviv’s Sheba Medical center, and further show that the ability of the vaccine to protect against infection increases with time, even after just the first dose.
[www.timesofisrael.com]

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: MisterDDDD ()
Date: February 22, 2021 03:22

Today as we pass 500k (confirmed) deaths in the US, here is some rare good news.

Beyond 100M: Biden team aiming for bigger vaccine numbers

WASHINGTON (AP) — It sounded so ambitious at first blush: 100 million vaccination shots in 100 days.

Now, one month into his presidency, Joe Biden is on a glide path to attain that goal and pitching well beyond it to the far more ambitious and daunting mission of vaccinating all eligible adults against the coronavirus by the end of the summer.

Limited supply of the two approved COVID-19 vaccines has hampered the pace of vaccinations — and that was before extreme winter weather delayed the delivery of about 6 million doses this past week. But the United States is on the verge of a supply breakthrough as manufacturing ramps up and with the expectation of a third vaccine becoming available in the coming weeks.

That means the act of delivering injections will soon be the dominant constraint, and it’s prompting the Biden administration to push to dramatically expand the universe of those who will deliver injections and where Americans will meet them to get their shots.

“It’s one thing to have the vaccine, and it’s very different to get it in someone’s arms,” Biden said Friday as he toured Pfizer’s manufacturing plant in Portage, Michigan. The company is set to double its pace of vaccine deliveries in the coming weeks.

Since their approval in December, more than 75 million doses of the two-shot-regimen Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have been distributed, of which 63 million have been injected, reaching 13% of Americans. Nearly 45 million of those doses have been administered since Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20.

The pace of deliveries of those vaccines is about to take off. About 145 million doses are set for delivery in the next 5 1/2 weeks, with an additional 200 million expected by the end of May and a further 200 million by the end of July.

That’s before the anticipated approval by the Food and Drug Administration for emergency use of a third vaccine, from Johnson & Johnson. The single-dose J&J vaccine is expected to help speed the path to immunity and requires half the vaccination resources of the two-shot regimens. But there is no massive stockpile of J&J doses ready to roll out on Day One.
[www.bloomberg.com]

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: kovach ()
Date: February 22, 2021 05:22

Quote
Hairball
Quote
kovach
Very interesting article:

Dr. Says U.S. Will Have Herd Immunity by April


Lots of material covered in this article via CNN - US Covid-19, but this portion is specific to herd immunity:

"The IHME team wrote they do not expect the country will reach herd immunity before next winter"

5.5% of US is fully vaccinated
While vaccinations are ongoing, it's unlikely they'll help the US reach herd immunity levels any time soon. So far, more than 42.8 million Americans have received at least the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine,
according to CDC data. More than 17.8 million people have been fully vaccinated. That's about 5.5% of the US population.

Herd immunity is reached when the majority of the population becomes immune to an infectious disease -- either through infection and recovery or through vaccination. Fauci estimates between 70% to 85% of the US population needs to be immune for herd immunity to take effect against the virus. The IHME team wrote they do not expect the country will reach herd immunity before next winter. "The model suggests that we should have a quiet summer," IHME Director Dr. Chris Murray told CNN Friday. "But we know Covid's really seasonal, so when the next winter rolls around, we need to have a much higher level of protection to stop Covid in its tracks than we're likely to achieve."

To speed up getting at least the first doses into arms, the US should consider delaying the second dose of vaccines, another expert said. "Everybody needs a second dose, there's no question about that," Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, said Friday. "I think the question is, right now we wait four weeks between first and second dose. What if we went six weeks or eight weeks or 10 weeks -- not much longer than that." His comments came the same day two top US officials -- Andy Slavitt, senior adviser to the White House Covid-19 response team and Fauci -- said they don't think the US should delay or skip second vaccine doses. Jha says his suggestion is middle ground to vaccinate more high-risk people quickly.

Another article, different doctor, similar suggestions:

Herd Immunity

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: GasLightStreet ()
Date: February 22, 2021 05:42

It is impossible that herd immunity will happen with the people of Earth because of the USA.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Hairball ()
Date: February 22, 2021 06:21

Quote
kovach
Quote
Hairball
Quote
kovach
Very interesting article:

Dr. Says U.S. Will Have Herd Immunity by April


Lots of material covered in this article via CNN - US Covid-19, but this portion is specific to herd immunity:

"The IHME team wrote they do not expect the country will reach herd immunity before next winter"

5.5% of US is fully vaccinated
While vaccinations are ongoing, it's unlikely they'll help the US reach herd immunity levels any time soon. So far, more than 42.8 million Americans have received at least the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine,
according to CDC data. More than 17.8 million people have been fully vaccinated. That's about 5.5% of the US population.

Herd immunity is reached when the majority of the population becomes immune to an infectious disease -- either through infection and recovery or through vaccination. Fauci estimates between 70% to 85% of the US population needs to be immune for herd immunity to take effect against the virus. The IHME team wrote they do not expect the country will reach herd immunity before next winter. "The model suggests that we should have a quiet summer," IHME Director Dr. Chris Murray told CNN Friday. "But we know Covid's really seasonal, so when the next winter rolls around, we need to have a much higher level of protection to stop Covid in its tracks than we're likely to achieve."

To speed up getting at least the first doses into arms, the US should consider delaying the second dose of vaccines, another expert said. "Everybody needs a second dose, there's no question about that," Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, said Friday. "I think the question is, right now we wait four weeks between first and second dose. What if we went six weeks or eight weeks or 10 weeks -- not much longer than that." His comments came the same day two top US officials -- Andy Slavitt, senior adviser to the White House Covid-19 response team and Fauci -- said they don't think the US should delay or skip second vaccine doses. Jha says his suggestion is middle ground to vaccinate more high-risk people quickly.

Another article, different doctor, similar suggestions:

Herd Immunity

And yet another article - this one cites Dr. Martin Makary's opinion piece in your first post, and then gives multiple counter-opinions and reasons from various experts on why herd immunity is still a long ways off.

A Johns Hopkins professor predicts the US will reach herd immunity by April, but many experts aren't so optimistic

Via Business Insider - Covid-19

_____________________________________________________________
Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: bv ()
Date: February 22, 2021 09:34

The coronavirus is going to stick around forever. Get ready for the new normal (Insider Feb 11, 2020)

The spread of coronavirus variants means COVID-19 will likely be around forever.

People might require regular booster shots to fight new variants of the virus.

But experts say it's impossible to vaccinate everyone yearly, so the virus will continue to circulate.

Despite this uncertainty, most scientists have accepted an unfortunate truth: The coronavirus will likely be part of our lives forever, though the pandemic phase will eventually end. Our best hope is for it to turn into a mild, flu-like illness rather than a deadlier, long-term threat.

Bjornulf

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: CaptainCorella ()
Date: February 22, 2021 11:27

Quote
bv
The coronavirus is going to stick around forever. Get ready for the new normal (Insider Feb 11, 2020)

The spread of coronavirus variants means COVID-19 will likely be around forever.

People might require regular booster shots to fight new variants of the virus.

But experts say it's impossible to vaccinate everyone yearly, so the virus will continue to circulate.

Despite this uncertainty, most scientists have accepted an unfortunate truth: The coronavirus will likely be part of our lives forever, though the pandemic phase will eventually end. Our best hope is for it to turn into a mild, flu-like illness rather than a deadlier, long-term threat.

True.

But ask yourselves why there are several emerging variants.

The opportunities for a virus to mutate are governed in large part by how any times it gets to replicate. More cases leads to more opportunities to replicate.

So a contributing factor the evolution of the variants is the way many countries failed to address the pandemic a year ago and, for whatever reasons, ended up with huge numbers of cases resulting in unthinkable numbers of opportunities for the virus to mutate.

It's a numbers game.

--
Captain Corella
50+ Years a Fan

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Topi ()
Date: February 22, 2021 12:47

Aerosmith just postponed their European tour again.

This time to 2022.

You guys watch, this year is toast.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: bv ()
Date: February 22, 2021 16:19

Vaccine alone will not bring back normal life, like large crowds and rock show, travel etc. The reason is partly all those who will not accept a vaccine (30% or more in some countries), people who don't care (many), people who think it is easier to do business while thousands die from the pandemic, and people who don't wear masks, don't keep a distance, and think they will live eternal. This will generate more and more variants (mutants), which is not easily handled by current vaccines.

More and more experts agree on the fact that the strategy used in New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan, Vietnam, and many other Asian countries is the only way to get rid of the problems related to the corona virus. They eliminate the virus, and then they may do normal life, normal business. Australia are not in a big hurry vaccinating their population, because the virus is eliminated, also, they just had the Australian Open tennis final at Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne, with a large crowd, no worries.

This is what the highly respected medical journal Lancet is saying about eliminating the virus:

Offline: The case for No-COVID

This past week, Ilona Kickbusch, founding director of the Global Health Centre at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, shared a proposal being widely discussed in Germany.

There are three elements to their plan, based on the twin objectives of No-COVID and the creation of virus-free green zones.

First, a rapid reduction in numbers of infections to zero.

Second, avoidance of further virus transmission or reintroduction through rigorous test, trace, and isolate systems, together with local travel restrictions.

Third, rapid outbreak management if new cases of COVID-19 occur sporadically.

Experience from several east Asian countries shows that complete elimination causes the least harm to society. Every infection is one too many. The German proposal recommends a regional focus—when the incidence of infection in an area falls to zero, the region should be declared a green zone.

Strict protective contact and travel restrictions should be imposed around this zone, with robust test, trace, and isolate protocols.

The German team argue that the first realistic assessment of their plan came with the way Melbourne successfully handled its recent outbreak. The “path to normality” would consist of four phases. Phase 1: lockdown to achieve an incidence of infection below ten cases per 100?000 population per week. Phase 2: continued measures to reach below five cases per 100?000. Phase 3: reaching zero incidence. Phase 4: declaration of green zone status.

Bjornulf



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 2021-02-22 16:25 by bv.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Beast ()
Date: February 22, 2021 16:20

Very promising news today:

[www.theguardian.com]

Pfizer and AZ vaccines reduce hospital admissions by 85% and 94%, study suggests.

The Covid vaccination programme has been linked to a substantial reduction in hospital admissions, PA Media is reporting. The PA story goes on:

Researchers examined coronavirus hospital admissions in Scotland among people who have had their first jab and compared them with those who had not yet received a dose of the vaccine.

Scientists from the University of Edinburgh, the University of Strathclyde and Public Health Scotland examined data on people who had received either the Pfizer/BioNTech jab or the one developed by experts at the University of Oxford with AstraZeneca.

By the fourth week after receiving the initial dose, the Pfizer and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines were shown to reduce the risk of hospital admission from Covid-19 by up to 85% and 94%, respectively, they found.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: kovach ()
Date: February 22, 2021 17:12

Quote
bv
The coronavirus is going to stick around forever. Get ready for the new normal (Insider Feb 11, 2020)

The spread of coronavirus variants means COVID-19 will likely be around forever.

People might require regular booster shots to fight new variants of the virus.

But experts say it's impossible to vaccinate everyone yearly, so the virus will continue to circulate.

Despite this uncertainty, most scientists have accepted an unfortunate truth: The coronavirus will likely be part of our lives forever, though the pandemic phase will eventually end. Our best hope is for it to turn into a mild, flu-like illness rather than a deadlier, long-term threat.

I was just assuming after this initial dose, in years to come if need be I'd get a covid shot at the same time I get a flu shot.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Irix ()
Date: February 22, 2021 17:25

In Germany experts have introduced on Monday, 22-Feb-2021 a scientific study which describes measures that will allow again large events. Indoors: using only 25-30% of the venue-capacity, plus the usual measures with social distancing, hygiene and permanent medical mask wearing, air cleaning/exchange, personalized tickets, managed queues, no drinks/food in the seating area, no alcohol when more than 1,000 spectators. Outdoors: similar measures like indoors, but up to 40% of the venue-capacity. Full venue-capacity could be possible if all spectators are negative-tested. -- [www.Tagesschau.de] , Study: [www.Kulturrat.de] - (PDF, in German).

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Date: February 22, 2021 18:23

I would recommend specific sections at concert venues for vaccinated (good seats) and unvaccinated (back and upper levels) attendees with a couple of empty buffer sections as needed between them.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: stickyfingers101 ()
Date: February 22, 2021 18:48

Quote
makemeburnthecandle
I would recommend specific sections at concert venues for vaccinated (good seats) and unvaccinated (back and upper levels) attendees with a couple of empty buffer sections as needed between them.

thumbs down

Separate AND Unequal?

hmmm....nope...not biting.

I suppose there should be separate toilets, beer-stands, merch-vendors, entrance/exits and tailgating sections too?

how about separate times to enter/exit the stadium while we are at it?

heck, let's just send the non-vaccinated to the back of the bus and have separate drinking fountains and building entrances while we are at it.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: bv ()
Date: February 22, 2021 19:10

Quote
makemeburnthecandle
I would recommend specific sections at concert venues for vaccinated (good seats) and unvaccinated (back and upper levels) attendees with a couple of empty buffer sections as needed between them.

I guess you say this in irony...

Separate places to live, separate trams and metro stations, separate payment, separate queues, separate everything. That sounds like 50's and 60's segregation, not really these days politics.

Bjornulf

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Hairball ()
Date: February 22, 2021 19:35

Can't find a link to story, but last night on one of the news channels an expert was talking about the fact that some countries either haven't even begun the vaccination process,
or have very small amounts of the vaccine, and that those particular countries are basically breeding grounds (or "petri dishes" as he called them) for new mutations and variants to evolve continuously.
These mutations will undoubtedly circulate to other countries he said, and will continue to spread while new variants continue to evolve in the unvaccinated areas.

_____________________________________________________________
Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Nate ()
Date: February 22, 2021 19:51

Here in the U.K. the government has just announced a plan culminating in all Covid restrictions being lifted by 21st June subject to certain conditions being met along the way.
This could of course be delayed but if everything goes to plan then here in the U.K. we will have events with stadiums full of people with no restrictions this summer.

Nate

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Hairball ()
Date: February 22, 2021 20:10

Here's a link to that story: Covid-19

Roadmap out of lockdown: Almost all restrictions could be lifted by June 21, PM announces

Hopefully it all works out - seems the planets, the stars, and the entire universe will have to be in perfect alignment for the next few months for it all to happen successfully.

At the same time, Boris Johnson seems anxious to move forward and hopefully make it happen.

"No vaccine can ever be 100 per cent effective, nor will everyone take them up.We cannot escape the fact that lifting lockdown will result in more cases, more hospitalisations and sadly more deaths.
This would happen whenever lockdown is lifted, whether now or in six or nine months, because there will always be some vulnerable people who are not protected by the vaccine.
There is therefore no credible route to a Zero Covid Britain or indeed a Zero Covid World."

_____________________________________________________________
Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021-02-22 20:11 by Hairball.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Beast ()
Date: February 22, 2021 20:43

Quote
Hairball
Can't find a link to story, but last night on one of the news channels an expert was talking about the fact that some countries either haven't even begun the vaccination process,
or have very small amounts of the vaccine, and that those particular countries are basically breeding grounds (or "petri dishes" as he called them) for new mutations and variants to evolve continuously.
These mutations will undoubtedly circulate to other countries he said, and will continue to spread while new variants continue to evolve in the unvaccinated areas.

Of the 128 million vaccine doses administered so far, more than three quarters of those vaccinations are in just 10 countries that account for 60% of global GDP.

As of today, almost 130 countries, with 2.5 billion people, are yet to administer a single dose.

This self-defeating strategy will cost lives and livelihoods, give the virus further opportunity to mutate and evade vaccines and will undermine a global economic recovery.

COVID-19 has shown that our fates are inextricably linked. Whether we win or lose, we will do so together.

The above are extracts from this joint WHO/UNICEF statement issued on 10 February:

[www.who.int]

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: grzegorz67 ()
Date: February 22, 2021 22:20

Quote
Nate
Here in the U.K. the government has just announced a plan culminating in all Covid restrictions being lifted by 21st June subject to certain conditions being met along the way.
This could of course be delayed but if everything goes to plan then here in the U.K. we will have events with stadiums full of people with no restrictions this summer.

Nate

The ideal testing ground for that is sport, from next season. The entire UK adult population will have been offered a vaccine by then. The sports events are all happening anyway, but behind closed doors so easy to organise spectators being allowed in. It would be on a limited capacity basis to start with, slowly being built up to full capacity as it was deemed safe.

Live music is a completely different matter. The logistics are much more complicated and many months of planning are needed and importantly, the insurers would need to be convinced. See this article here. This industry insider says it's at the very back of the queue for a restart. If everything else goes to plan, 2022 would seem a much more realistic bet, especially if large crowd sports events have been proven safe by then. Many of the big touring acts have postponed until 2022 in anticipation of this with the Who cancelling altogether.

[www.bbc.co.uk]

Travel restrictions are likely to remain for a while because although the UK is hoped to be fully vaccinated by the end of July, most of the rest of the World outside the developed nations hasn't even started yet. While it should be safe enough to travel around within the UK or other fully vaccinated country, there's always a risk of returning travellers from far flung places bringing back mutations of the virus which the vaccines are not effective against so quarantining at one of those of so lovely Slough budget hotels will be necessary for some destinations.

But there's no doubt things are moving in the right direction and there's cause for cautious optimism. Patience required! Let's not get ahead of ourselves. We'll get there.



Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 2021-02-22 22:44 by grzegorz67.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: MisterDDDD ()
Date: February 22, 2021 22:44

The Super Bowl, thought likely to be a super-spreader event, apparently wasn't. Biggest factor due to all the events, and the game, being outdoors.
Credit also given to social distancing, masking, etc.

Here's why we didn't see a surge in COVID-19 cases after the Super Bowl



They also used a hybrid system, with vaccinated people sectioned off a bit, especially at the pre-game concerts etc., where all in attendance were vaccinated.



Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: grzegorz67 ()
Date: February 22, 2021 23:34

Quote
Beast
Quote
Hairball
Can't find a link to story, but last night on one of the news channels an expert was talking about the fact that some countries either haven't even begun the vaccination process,
or have very small amounts of the vaccine, and that those particular countries are basically breeding grounds (or "petri dishes" as he called them) for new mutations and variants to evolve continuously.
These mutations will undoubtedly circulate to other countries he said, and will continue to spread while new variants continue to evolve in the unvaccinated areas.

Of the 128 million vaccine doses administered so far, more than three quarters of those vaccinations are in just 10 countries that account for 60% of global GDP.

As of today, almost 130 countries, with 2.5 billion people, are yet to administer a single dose.

This self-defeating strategy will cost lives and livelihoods, give the virus further opportunity to mutate and evade vaccines and will undermine a global economic recovery.

COVID-19 has shown that our fates are inextricably linked. Whether we win or lose, we will do so together.

The above are extracts from this joint WHO/UNICEF statement issued on 10 February:

[www.who.int]

All fair and valid points. Unfortunately this probably has a few twists and turns to take yet. A timely reminder that we live in an interdependent and interconnected World where events far beyond the borders of our own individual countries affect us all.

I wish Boris well, but his less than stellar handling of the pandemic thus far does not fill me with confidence. He's done well to order lots of vaccine doses in advance and with the vaccination process so credit due there but the initial response was very poor.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: MisterDDDD ()
Date: February 23, 2021 02:00

Interesting the way the virus has peaked and turned almost in sync across so many countries.

The Pandemic Is Receding in the Worst Hotspots. Will It Last?



LONDON — A month ago, the pandemic looked bleak. More than 750,000 coronavirus cases were tallied worldwide in a single day. Infections surged across the entire United States. New variants identified in the United Kingdom, Brazil and South Africa threatened the rest of the world.

But the last month has brought a surprisingly fast, if partial, turnaround. New cases have declined to half their peak globally, driven largely by steady improvements in some of the same places that weathered devastating outbreaks this winter.

Cases are an imperfect measure, and uneven records and testing mask the scope of outbreaks, especially in parts of Africa, Latin America and South Asia. But fewer patients are showing up at hospitals in many countries with the highest rates of infection, giving experts confidence that the decline is real.

“It’s a great moment of optimism, but it’s also very fragile in a lot of ways,” said Wafaa El-Sadr, an epidemiologist at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. “We see the light at the end of the tunnel, but it’s still a long tunnel.”

The lull in many of the world’s worst outbreaks creates a critical opportunity to keep the virus in retreat as vaccinations begin to take effect. Experts believe vaccines have done little to slow most outbreaks so far, but a small group of countries, primarily wealthy ones, plan to vaccinate vulnerable groups by the spring.
[www.nytimes.com]

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: daspyknows ()
Date: February 23, 2021 04:31

^ The peaks coincide with Christmas and New Years and cold weather which meant more inside time with more people. Seasonality is the only thing where covid is like the flu.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: MisterDDDD ()
Date: February 23, 2021 05:12

Yeah.. a couple of the big holidays in common, and it was over 80F in much of Brazil on Jan 1.
Lots of factors no doubt, but it is curious to see how similar the peaks and valleys were over a six month period.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Big Al ()
Date: February 23, 2021 07:24

Whilst it’s marvellous to read that the government is hoping that here in the U.K., we’ll be back to ‘normal’ by 21 June, I’m afraid to say that I’ll believe it only once it happens. This pandemic has been far too much of an up-and-down rollercoaster of emotion; some very personal to me. I sincerely hope, but I’m sceptical. What I really do want to reopen, no matter what, is my barber. The beard needs shaping. They’ll open in April.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: georgie48 ()
Date: February 23, 2021 08:33

Quote
Big Al
Whilst it’s marvellous to read that the government is hoping that here in the U.K., we’ll be back to ‘normal’ by 21 June, I’m afraid to say that I’ll believe it only once it happens. This pandemic has been far too much of an up-and-down rollercoaster of emotion; some very personal to me. I sincerely hope, but I’m sceptical. What I really do want to reopen, no matter what, is my barber. The beard needs shaping. They’ll open in April.

I’m fully in line with you. So far our government is hesitant. Things appear to be stable, but experts see signs of a third wave under the surface so the lockdown will be extended with three more weeks as of march 3rd. Barbers may be open again under strict rules. Make sure you make a photo of your beard. Who knows what the future brings cool smiley

I'm a GHOST living in a ghost town

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Big Al ()
Date: February 23, 2021 08:43

Quote
georgie48

I’m fully in line with you. So far our government is hesitant. Things appear to be stable, but experts see signs of a third wave under the surface so the lockdown will be extended with three more weeks as of march 3rd. Barbers may be open again under strict rules. Make sure you make a photo of your beard. Who knows what the future brings cool smiley

I sometimes wonder if there'd ever even be the possibility of a ‘normality’ again, if the experts had their way entirely. There has to be a balance of safety, the economy and mental health, I think. Hopefully the vaccination programme will speed-up the process for everyone. It’s just saddening that so many nations are so far behind us here in the U.K.

Yep! The barbers is something I’m looking forward to. My post-covid visits have been fine. Everyone wearing a facial-covering, feeling safe.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: grzegorz67 ()
Date: February 23, 2021 11:45

Quote
Big Al
Whilst it’s marvellous to read that the government is hoping that here in the U.K., we’ll be back to ‘normal’ by 21 June, I’m afraid to say that I’ll believe it only once it happens. This pandemic has been far too much of an up-and-down rollercoaster of emotion; some very personal to me. I sincerely hope, but I’m sceptical. What I really do want to reopen, no matter what, is my barber. The beard needs shaping. They’ll open in April.

I hear ya Al. As a cynic, this is where I am too. For this reason, I will be booking precisely burger all until I'm convinced that it isn't all going to go breasts vertical again.

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