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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: bv ()
Date: April 13, 2020 16:23

Posts with critics of individual governmental managements regarding their ability to handle fast on the current corona crisis will be deleted. The reason for this, is the fact that such posts will be taken as political, they will always be, and there is no need or wish to have these political fights here on IORR. Feel free to follow your own national news regarding the governmental actions in your own country.

This is what Bill Gates just said to BBC on the subject:

Bill Gates: Few countries will get 'A-grade' for coronavirus response

Speaking exclusively to BBC Breakfast Bill Gates has said we are "in uncharted territory" due to a lack of investment and preparation for such a pandemic.

Bjornulf

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: DEmerson ()
Date: April 13, 2020 17:01

Not sure where to put this, but here is as good as any perhaps - but I am stunned to see Sir Paul McCartney still (now April 13) has dates listed for May and June in Europe. Also of note, open seating Golden Circle in front of the stage (at least for Barcelona show I looked at -are 'only' 158 Euro.).
Unless I'm missing something, I'm just really surprised these have not been postponed yet. Maybe every attendee gets a Paul face mask as they enter is the plan?

[www.paulmccartney.com]



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-04-13 17:02 by DEmerson.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: MisterDDDD ()
Date: April 13, 2020 17:05

The East Coast, Always in the Spotlight, Owes a Debt to the West
California, Oregon and Washington have shipped 1,000 ventilators to New York. Should Western states be getting more attention for their relative success in battling Covid-19?

"LOS ANGELES — California, Oregon and Washington have more ventilators than they can use. As the nation struggles to scrounge up the lifesaving machines for hospitals overrun with Covid-19 patients, these three Western states recently shipped 1,000 spares to New York and other besieged neighbors to the East.

Their aggressive imposition of stay-at-home orders has stood in contrast to the relatively slower actions in New York and elsewhere, and drawn widespread praise from epidemiologists. As of Saturday afternoon, there had been 8,627 Covid-19 related deaths in New York, compared with 598 in California, 483 in Washington and 48 in Oregon. New York had 44 deaths per 100,000 people. California had two."

[www.nytimes.com]

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: stickyfingers101 ()
Date: April 13, 2020 17:27

Quote
MisterDDDD
The East Coast, Always in the Spotlight, Owes a Debt to the West
California, Oregon and Washington have shipped 1,000 ventilators to New York. Should Western states be getting more attention for their relative success in battling Covid-19?

"LOS ANGELES — California, Oregon and Washington have more ventilators than they can use. As the nation struggles to scrounge up the lifesaving machines for hospitals overrun with Covid-19 patients, these three Western states recently shipped 1,000 spares to New York and other besieged neighbors to the East.

Their aggressive imposition of stay-at-home orders has stood in contrast to the relatively slower actions in New York and elsewhere, and drawn widespread praise from epidemiologists. As of Saturday afternoon, there had been 8,627 Covid-19 related deaths in New York, compared with 598 in California, 483 in Washington and 48 in Oregon. New York had 44 deaths per 100,000 people. California had two."

[www.nytimes.com]

definitely cool....we're one country (for the time being)....we should be helping each other however we can.

goes to show that ANY state w/ highly-concentrated populations needed to impose "stay at home" orders quickly and effectively

Given that...the thing about the East Coast that is different is we basically have one massive Megalopolis which is almost entirely urban (ie. densely populated) from DC to Boston....California and WA, geographically, are not like that.

DC to Boston is about the same as LA to San Fran, but just look at those 2 stretches on a map...the difference in the level of urbanization is noticeable at least, striking at most.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: FrogSugar ()
Date: April 13, 2020 17:30

Maybe I'm amazed Macca hasn't cancelled that Paris date...or not amazed. It fell on the same day as the "Queen" date.

Maybe he's hoping to sell more tix to people who've gotten refunds on the Queen show?! A shitty thing to do, but perhaps he's not alone to decide.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Taylor1 ()
Date: April 13, 2020 17:57

Quote
MisterDDDD
The East Coast, Always in the Spotlight, Owes a Debt to the West
California, Oregon and Washington have shipped 1,000 ventilators to New York. Should Western states be getting more attention for their relative success in battling Covid-19?

"LOS ANGELES — California, Oregon and Washington have more ventilators than they can use. As the nation struggles to scrounge up the lifesaving machines for hospitals overrun with Covid-19 patients, these three Western states recently shipped 1,000 spares to New York and other besieged neighbors to the East.

Their aggressive imposition of stay-at-home orders has stood in contrast to the relatively slower actions in New York and elsewhere, and drawn widespread praise from epidemiologists. As of Saturday afternoon, there had been 8,627 Covid-19 related deaths in New York, compared with 598 in California, 483 in Washington and 48 in Oregon. New York had 44 deaths per 100,000 people. California had two."

[www.nytimes.com]
You can’t compare New York to California .In Nee York 8 million people are living together in apts in agreatly smaller area than say Los Angeles.Plus we here in New York have people packed on trains and subways,LA has freeways..The people in New York are also more obese.And the Coronavirus that hit New York appears to be a much more deadly strain which came from Europe.That strain came from Chinese people who traveled to Europe and most likely first infected a German.Comparing NewYork to Italy ,England ,Spain,and that is a fairer comparison.But New York City also has more international visitors than anywhere in the world.And it also is home to the largest Chinese population,over800 thousand.That is the largest population of Chinese in a cityin the world outside of China

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Chris Fountain ()
Date: April 13, 2020 18:00

Mister DDD -I don't understand Morse Code. spinning smiley sticking its tongue out

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: treaclefingers ()
Date: April 13, 2020 18:11

Quote
Taylor1
Quote
MisterDDDD
The East Coast, Always in the Spotlight, Owes a Debt to the West
California, Oregon and Washington have shipped 1,000 ventilators to New York. Should Western states be getting more attention for their relative success in battling Covid-19?

"LOS ANGELES — California, Oregon and Washington have more ventilators than they can use. As the nation struggles to scrounge up the lifesaving machines for hospitals overrun with Covid-19 patients, these three Western states recently shipped 1,000 spares to New York and other besieged neighbors to the East.

Their aggressive imposition of stay-at-home orders has stood in contrast to the relatively slower actions in New York and elsewhere, and drawn widespread praise from epidemiologists. As of Saturday afternoon, there had been 8,627 Covid-19 related deaths in New York, compared with 598 in California, 483 in Washington and 48 in Oregon. New York had 44 deaths per 100,000 people. California had two."

[www.nytimes.com]
You can’t compare New York to California .In Nee York 8 million people are living together in apts in agreatly smaller area than say Los Angeles.Plus we here in New York have people packed on trains and subways,LA has freeways..The people in New York are also more obese.And the Coronavirus that hit New York appears to be a much more deadly strain which came from Europe.That strain came from Chinese people who traveled to Europe and most likely first infected a German.Comparing NewYork to Italy ,England ,Spain,and that is a fairer comparison.But New York City also has more international visitors than anywhere in the world.And it also is home to the largest Chinese population,over800 thousand.That is the largest population of Chinese in a cityin the world outside of China

I'm sure this wasn't your main point, but as it didn't ring true, here are the stats:

[en.wikipedia.org]

Hong Kong #1, Bangkok #2, then London. New York #8. Carry on.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: grzegorz67 ()
Date: April 13, 2020 18:23

Quote
Beast
Quote
grzegorz67
Quote
Taylor1
England is starting to get hit real hard. Oxford professor said she is 80 percent certain there will be a vaccine by September

England has indeed been hit hard with 9,600 deaths. The other 3 UK nations combined add 1,000 to give a total of approx 10,600 for the UK,

The Oxford Professor was 80% confident that a particular vaccine her team was developing would be successfully tested in September. It then has to be approved, licensed, mass manufactured and delivered. You can add several months for that. There are many teams working on vaccines all over the World.

The very soonest we can realistically hope for a vaccine to be widely available at the point of need is 12 months and more likely to be 18. It's not straightforward.

Today the same professor of vaccinology said that the vaccine could be ready as early as September if facilities start manufacturing when the trials are still ongoing. She said that trials are due to start soon. It is apparently fairly usual for production processes to start before clinical trials are over - but only if there is a high percentage of certainty that the vaccine will work, which is the case with the vaccine being developed in Oxford.

It goes without saying that we all hope that happens and every test of the vaccine would have to go well for it to happen.

Even if it did, September is 5 months away. The 1st COVID 19 death in the U.K. was just 5 weeks ago and we’re already at 11,300 here (in hospitals. Deaths outside hospitals are not being included except in Scotland). For an absolute minimum of 5 months, the only course of action available to us is behavioural change and restrictions. I really hope they can improve the PPE supplies to Medical Staff. That can be made to happen.

Dr Kate Broderick, a Scottish Scientist based in San Diego also has a team testing a possible vaccine. She’s been doing a bit of media here.

There are teams of scientists all over the World testing possible vaccines Let’s cross our fingers that at least one of them is successful. Past vaccines have been implemented prematurely which have turned out to have bad side effects. I believe there was one for Ebola or Zika where that was the case.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: stickyfingers101 ()
Date: April 13, 2020 18:30

Quote
Taylor1
Quote
MisterDDDD
The East Coast, Always in the Spotlight, Owes a Debt to the West
California, Oregon and Washington have shipped 1,000 ventilators to New York. Should Western states be getting more attention for their relative success in battling Covid-19?

"LOS ANGELES — California, Oregon and Washington have more ventilators than they can use. As the nation struggles to scrounge up the lifesaving machines for hospitals overrun with Covid-19 patients, these three Western states recently shipped 1,000 spares to New York and other besieged neighbors to the East.

Their aggressive imposition of stay-at-home orders has stood in contrast to the relatively slower actions in New York and elsewhere, and drawn widespread praise from epidemiologists. As of Saturday afternoon, there had been 8,627 Covid-19 related deaths in New York, compared with 598 in California, 483 in Washington and 48 in Oregon. New York had 44 deaths per 100,000 people. California had two."

[www.nytimes.com]
You can’t compare New York to California .In Nee York 8 million people are living together in apts in agreatly smaller area than say Los Angeles.Plus we here in New York have people packed on trains and subways,LA has freeways..The people in New York are also more obese.And the Coronavirus that hit New York appears to be a much more deadly strain which came from Europe.That strain came from Chinese people who traveled to Europe and most likely first infected a German.Comparing NewYork to Italy ,England ,Spain,and that is a fairer comparison.But New York City also has more international visitors than anywhere in the world.And it also is home to the largest Chinese population,over800 thousand.That is the largest population of Chinese in a cityin the world outside of China

I agree there are a lot more factors going into this and NO comparison is foolproof...

I won't speak the "strands/strains" b/c I am not knowledgeable enough.

However, given all the info you state about obesity, trains and apartments in NYC....then all the more reason to defend the idea that NYC should have imposed a lock-down much sooner....they have all the "benchmarks" for rapid-spread of disease which would justify a rapid lock-down.

California reacted quicker in this regard, as far as my understanding...and that was a smart move. I think that's what the article is saying.

Would it have helped NYC to lock-down sooner? I don't know...but given what you state, it sure sounds like it would have.

Oh...and I don't know for certain, but it sounds like you've forgotten that "New York" is more than "New York City"...how that adds into this, I don't know either...but, Upstate is pretty rural from what I know.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Date: April 13, 2020 19:57

My boss went on a Mission trip to the Dominican Republic. They had to cut their trip short and got what was said to be the last flight out. They had to switch planes in NY City. Then flew to Dallas and had to rent a car and drive 6 hours home.

When they got home from the trip they all self quarantined.

One of the teenagers had symptoms then tested positive.

Eventually they all were tested and all tested positive.

None of them got very sick.


So my boss believes this is being way over blown. Many of them never had any symptoms at all.

So him like many believe that if we truly knew the real numbers of people infected that have little to no symptoms that death rate and people being hospitalized percentage would be very low for the people that got the virus. He seems to think we just need to make the people that are high risk shelter and the rest of us go about our business.


I realize this is not the doom and gloom and all worst case stuff usually posted here . And it is more of a positive opinion and there is no news article to link.


But him having lived thru it along with several of his friends.

I would say there is a lot of truth to this.

Oh...he is 58 years old and a very caring man.



Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 2020-04-13 19:59 by jumpontopofmebaby.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Date: April 13, 2020 20:11

Quote
jumpontopofmebaby
My boss went on a Mission trip to the Dominican Republic. They had to cut their trip short and got what was said to be the last flight out. They had to switch planes in NY City. Then flew to Dallas and had to rent a car and drive 6 hours home.

When they got home from the trip they all self quarantined.

One of the teenagers had symptoms then tested positive.

Eventually they all were tested and all tested positive.

None of them got very sick.

So my boss believes this is being way over blown. Many of them never had any symptoms at all.

So him like many believe that if we truly knew the real numbers of people infected that have little to no symptoms that death rate and people being hospitalized percentage would be very low for the people that got the virus. He seems to think we just need to make the people that are high risk shelter and the rest of us go about our business.

I realize this is not the doom and gloom and all worst case stuff usually posted here . And it is more of a positive opinion and there is no news article to link.

But him having lived thru it along with several of his friends.

I would say there is a lot of truth to this.

Oh...he is 58 years old and a very caring man.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: treaclefingers ()
Date: April 13, 2020 20:39

Quote
jumpontopofmebaby
My boss went on a Mission trip to the Dominican Republic. They had to cut their trip short and got what was said to be the last flight out. They had to switch planes in NY City. Then flew to Dallas and had to rent a car and drive 6 hours home.

When they got home from the trip they all self quarantined.

One of the teenagers had symptoms then tested positive.

Eventually they all were tested and all tested positive.

None of them got very sick.


So my boss believes this is being way over blown. Many of them never had any symptoms at all.

So him like many believe that if we truly knew the real numbers of people infected that have little to no symptoms that death rate and people being hospitalized percentage would be very low for the people that got the virus. He seems to think we just need to make the people that are high risk shelter and the rest of us go about our business.


I realize this is not the doom and gloom and all worst case stuff usually posted here . And it is more of a positive opinion and there is no news article to link.


But him having lived thru it along with several of his friends.

I would say there is a lot of truth to this.

Oh...he is 58 years old and a very caring man.

OK, with all of that in mind, why are hospitals being overwhelmed in countries (and states) that didn't do a complete lockdown soon enough. In Italy and probably other places, having to select people that weren't eligible to go on ventilators.

In NYC a multiple more people have died from COVID than 9/11 in the last month...this isn't normal. Just because some people have limited symptoms doesn't mean this isn't a crisis.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Date: April 13, 2020 21:34

Quote
treaclefingers
Quote
jumpontopofmebaby
My boss went on a Mission trip to the Dominican Republic. They had to cut their trip short and got what was said to be the last flight out. They had to switch planes in NY City. Then flew to Dallas and had to rent a car and drive 6 hours home.

When they got home from the trip they all self quarantined.

One of the teenagers had symptoms then tested positive.

Eventually they all were tested and all tested positive.

None of them got very sick.


So my boss believes this is being way over blown. Many of them never had any symptoms at all.

So him like many believe that if we truly knew the real numbers of people infected that have little to no symptoms that death rate and people being hospitalized percentage would be very low for the people that got the virus. He seems to think we just need to make the people that are high risk shelter and the rest of us go about our business.


I realize this is not the doom and gloom and all worst case stuff usually posted here . And it is more of a positive opinion and there is no news article to link.


But him having lived thru it along with several of his friends.

I would say there is a lot of truth to this.

Oh...he is 58 years old and a very caring man.

OK, with all of that in mind, why are hospitals being overwhelmed in countries (and states) that didn't do a complete lockdown soon enough. In Italy and probably other places, having to select people that weren't eligible to go on ventilators.

In NYC a multiple more people have died from COVID than 9/11 in the last month...this isn't normal. Just because some people have limited symptoms doesn't mean this isn't a crisis.




Because it is far more contagious than the flu. So more people get it.

People that are at a higher risk need to take more precautions.

Because if we knew the true numbers of people infected then the percentage of people being hospitalized or that die would not be as high as what we see in the numbers being reported.

This is what I believe.

And I base that on the people here in my town that got it and never knew that had it.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: MileHigh ()
Date: April 13, 2020 21:38

It's a crisis.

[bnonews.com]

Spain, Italy, France, UK, Belgium, and Holland all have death rates above 10%. These are all modern countries and by now they have accumulated a massive sample size over a long period of time.

It's very worrisome.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Nate ()
Date: April 13, 2020 22:10

Quote
MileHigh
It's a crisis.

[bnonews.com]

Spain, Italy, France, UK, Belgium, and Holland all have death rates above 10%. These are all modern countries and by now they have accumulated a massive sample size over a long period of time.

It's very worrisome.

This is total nonsense and by now everyone should realise that.
The death rate is nowhere near ten percent nowhere near.

Nate

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: bv ()
Date: April 13, 2020 22:28

Quote
MileHigh
It's a crisis.

[bnonews.com]

Spain, Italy, France, UK, Belgium, and Holland all have death rates above 10%. These are all modern countries and by now they have accumulated a massive sample size over a long period of time.

It's very worrisome.

You can NOT calculate death rates based on number of positive tests. Most of these countries hardly test, they test patients coming in, healthcare workers and others who report. There are LARGE dark numbers of positives never tested. The real fatality rate of the COVID-19 disease is, as stated many times by WHO, China, and others, is approx 1%.

Example-1:
Norway is listed with a "death rate" of 1.97% - three digit accuracy - so impressing! This is based on the "cases" number of 6,485 and the deaths numb er of 128. Norway test a lot, but they said in a report last week that the real number of positives in Norway is around 15,000. Two digits accuracy... So with the exact number of 128 deaths that makes a death rate of 128 / 15,000 * 100 = 0.85%.

Example-2:
Iceland with 1,711 cases and 4 deaths makes a "death rate" of 0.23%, which is wrong. Iceland have got 8 deaths and 1,711, as per Johns Hopkins and Worldometer, which would give a "death rate" of 0.5%.

BNO News are NOT to be taken serious when they talk about "Death rate". They should be ashamed, abusing numbers that way. They have absolutely no knowledgew of statistics or mathematics, or how these numbers appear, and they can't even get the numbers right.

It is important to know who to trust these days. The following two are recommended, I have followed them since February, and they are to be trusted:

[www.worldometers.info] (Worldometers)

[www.arcgis.com] (Johns Hopkins University)

Bjornulf



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-04-13 22:31 by bv.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Date: April 13, 2020 22:35

Quote
bv
Quote
MileHigh
It's a crisis.

[bnonews.com]

Spain, Italy, France, UK, Belgium, and Holland all have death rates above 10%. These are all modern countries and by now they have accumulated a massive sample size over a long period of time.

It's very worrisome.

You can NOT calculate death rates based on number of positive tests. Most of these countries hardly test, they test patients coming in, healthcare workers and others who report. There are LARGE dark numbers of positives never tested. The real fatality rate of the COVID-19 disease is, as stated many times by WHO, China, and others, is approx 1%.

Example-1:
Norway is listed with a "death rate" of 1.97% - three digit accuracy - so impressing! This is based on the "cases" number of 6,485 and the deaths numb er of 128. Norway test a lot, but they said in a report last week that the real number of positives in Norway is around 15,000. Two digits accuracy... So with the exact number of 128 deaths that makes a death rate of 128 / 15,000 * 100 = 0.85%.

Example-2:
Iceland with 1,711 cases and 4 deaths makes a "death rate" of 0.23%, which is wrong. Iceland have got 8 deaths and 1,711, as per Johns Hopkins and Worldometer, which would give a "death rate" of 0.5%.

BNO News are NOT to be taken serious when they talk about "Death rate". They should be ashamed, abusing numbers that way. They have absolutely no knowledgew of statistics or mathematics, or how these numbers appear, and they can't even get the numbers right.

It is important to know who to trust these days. The following two are recommended, I have followed them since February, and they are to be trusted:

[www.worldometers.info] (Worldometers)

[www.arcgis.com] (Johns Hopkins University)



Maybe they can be trusted but can you trust who gives them the information they base their numbers on?

In some cases many people think not.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: MileHigh ()
Date: April 13, 2020 23:15

Quote
bv
Quote
MileHigh
It's a crisis.

[bnonews.com]

Spain, Italy, France, UK, Belgium, and Holland all have death rates above 10%. These are all modern countries and by now they have accumulated a massive sample size over a long period of time.

It's very worrisome.

You can NOT calculate death rates based on number of positive tests. Most of these countries hardly test, they test patients coming in, healthcare workers and others who report. There are LARGE dark numbers of positives never tested. The real fatality rate of the COVID-19 disease is, as stated many times by WHO, China, and others, is approx 1%.

BNO News are NOT to be taken serious when they talk about "Death rate". They should be ashamed, abusing numbers that way. They have absolutely no knowledgew of statistics or mathematics, or how these numbers appear, and they can't even get the numbers right.

It is important to know who to trust these days. The following two are recommended, I have followed them since February, and they are to be trusted:

[www.worldometers.info] (Worldometers)

[www.arcgis.com] (Johns Hopkins University)

I am not sure how reliable the overall data is. If you look at the BNO site there is a link for every source of data. For the US, the links typically go to the government web sites for each individual state.

For example, here is the New Jersey link:

[www.nj.gov]

It shows 118097 tests made, 64584 positives, and 2443 deaths.

Keep in mind that the individual countries and states have been accumulating data over time. And the longer you accumulate data the more reliable that data becomes. Also, if disparate sources of data (different countries) show similar results then you are getting a convergence of data, which tends to make the data more credible.

You cited sources of data for Norway and Iceland that presumably are just as credible where the death rate is less than 1%. (I removed the references just to make the posting shorter in length.) I can't explain the discrepancy between the Norway and Iceland and the major European countries were it's above 10%.

The point is that if you see low death rates you can't automatically ignore the high death rates and vice versa. Will the reported death rates above 10% reduce over time as more data is accumulated? They probably will but I would not be surprised if they do not go as low as 1%.

I think the key factor is time. Death rates of above 10% a month ago could most likely be discounted because the data was so new. At this point in time I am not so sure. If for example in the middle of May the countries currently reporting death rates above 10% are reporting death rates of about 5% then that would be better but still very worrisome.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Green Lady ()
Date: April 13, 2020 23:37

Death rates as a percentage of confirmed and tested cases are almost meaningless because the level of testing varies so wildly between different countries. In order to be tested in the UK you have to have already arrived in hospital, which means you are already seriously ill, with Covid or something else. High death rate. Whereas other countries are making serious efforts to identify everyone in the population who has it. Low death rate.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: MisterDDDD ()
Date: April 14, 2020 00:08

California, Oregon & Washington Announce Western States Pact
West Coast states agree region will move toward reopening based on health outcomes

"Our states will only be effective by working together. Each state will work with its local leaders and communities within its borders to understand what’s happening on the ground and adhere to our agreed upon approach.

Through quick and decisive action, each of our states has made significant progress in flattening the curve and slowing the spread of COVID-19 among the broader public. Now, our public health leaders will focus on four goals that will be critical for controlling the virus in the future.

*Protecting vulnerable populations at risk for severe disease if infected. This includes a concerted effort to prevent and fight outbreaks in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.
*Ensuring an ability to care for those who may become sick with COVID-19 and other conditions. This will require adequate hospital surge capacity and supplies of personal protective equipment.
*Mitigating the non-direct COVID-19 health impacts, particularly on disadvantaged communities.
*Protecting the general public by ensuring any successful lifting of interventions includes the development of a system for testing, tracking and isolating. The states will work together to share best practices."
[www.gov.ca.gov]

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: shattered1978 ()
Date: April 14, 2020 00:31

At the German University of Göttingen they estimate all positively tested patients make up 6% of all infected people.
So, on average there are 17x more people who have/had the virus than the number of positive tests.
This dark number will increase now that the spread accelerates in countries with less developed test facilities.
All in all it would mean the death rate is 0,36%.

[www.uni-goettingen.de]

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: CaptainCorella ()
Date: April 14, 2020 00:41

Quote
jumpontopofmebaby

He seems to think we just need to make the people that are high risk shelter and the rest of us go about our business.


That's exactly the 'mitigate' policy that the UK was adopting up to mid-March.

Then they read the predictions and modelling that suggested that continuing would kill = KILL = 250,000 in the UK. (And if adopted in the USA well over million).

Sadly it's very well meaning, but off scale naive to adopt as a policy... if you want to save lives.

Captain Corella

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Date: April 14, 2020 02:48

Wowsa. So the United States went from 300k test to 3 million in 3 weeks. That is truly amazing. Those are huge numbers.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: doitywoik ()
Date: April 14, 2020 04:34

In order to get a better idea of the dark figure of infected persons, Austria conducted a nationwide cross-sectional (prevalence) study, testing a sample of 1566 symptom-free persons in the age range from <1 year to 94 years in the first week of April. It turned out that at the time of testing, only 0,33% of the persons in the sample were infected with CoVid19.

In a way, this is good news and bad news at the same time:

- good news because it shows that lockdown measures seem to be effective,
- not so good news because a very low dark figure indicates that one can forget about herd immunity anytime soon

Because the extant antibody tests were not deemed sufficiently reliable, only the PCR test was applied. That is, the results show only the number of persons in the sample with an active, formerly undetected CoVid19-infection at the time of testing but say nothing about the number of people who had been infected before the testing and have meanwhile recuperated.

A second prevalence study is under way.

The effective reproduction number over here is meanwhile below 1 (a few days back it was given as 0,87). That is, not every infected person passes on the infection to another person any longer (more precisely, out of 100 infected persons, only 87 persons pass the infection on to another person), so the curve is flattening.

[kurier.at]
[www.wienerzeitung.at]
[www.statistik.at]

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Rockman ()
Date: April 14, 2020 08:01



THE AGE --- 14 April 2020



ROCKMAN

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: DGA35 ()
Date: April 14, 2020 08:53

Quote
MisterDDDD
California, Oregon & Washington Announce Western States Pact
West Coast states agree region will move toward reopening based on health outcomes

"Our states will only be effective by working together. Each state will work with its local leaders and communities within its borders to understand what’s happening on the ground and adhere to our agreed upon approach.

Through quick and decisive action, each of our states has made significant progress in flattening the curve and slowing the spread of COVID-19 among the broader public. Now, our public health leaders will focus on four goals that will be critical for controlling the virus in the future.

*Protecting vulnerable populations at risk for severe disease if infected. This includes a concerted effort to prevent and fight outbreaks in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.
*Ensuring an ability to care for those who may become sick with COVID-19 and other conditions. This will require adequate hospital surge capacity and supplies of personal protective equipment.
*Mitigating the non-direct COVID-19 health impacts, particularly on disadvantaged communities.
*Protecting the general public by ensuring any successful lifting of interventions includes the development of a system for testing, tracking and isolating. The states will work together to share best practices."
[www.gov.ca.gov]

This is great. BC should join in this, too, make it the whole west coast. Off topic, the BC government wants to make daylight savings time permanent so no fall back and spring forward anymore but waiting to see what the Washington/Oregon and California want to do. I think all 3 want to do the same. Wouldn't make sense to have BC in a different time zone with Washington.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: bv ()
Date: April 14, 2020 10:13

Covid-19 death rate:

The corona virus disease covid-19 has got an estimated fatality rate of 1%. It is roughly ten times more fatal than the annual influenza (flu).

There are a number of reasons why the fatality rate is hard to calculate.

First of all, many young people have mild or no symptoms, as many as 40% may have the covid-19 disease without knowing, and without being tested, without being part of the number used in calculated the death rate.

Secondly, the number of deaths will vary based on where in the population the virus hit hard. The fatality rate is increasing with age. Italy have got a large elderly population. Some countries are better than others in protecting their elderly homes. This will seriously affect the fatality rate.

Thirdly, countries like Italy and Spain have major problems with antibiotic resistant bacteria, which makes it harder to treat sick patients.

Finally, the general health due to overweight and smoking will affect the fatality rate. Also, the health system may not be fully functioning, and available to all parts of the population equally everywhere.

Neil Ferguson’s team at Imperial College London has estimated the number of missed cases based on how many people who were evacuated from Wuhan tested positive. They concluded that the infection fatality rate in China is 0.66 per cent.

References:

Very low mortality rate from coronavirus in Norway compared to other countries (Science Norway 26. mars 2020)

We could be vastly overestimating the death rate for COVID-19. Here's why (World Economic Forum 04 Apr 2020)

Why we still don't know what the death rate is for covid-19 (New Scientist 3 April 2020)

List of countries by body mass index (Wikipedia)

Prevalence of tobacco use (Wikipedia)

Bjornulf

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Happy24 ()
Date: April 14, 2020 10:16

Quote
bv
Quote
MileHigh
It's a crisis.

[bnonews.com]

Spain, Italy, France, UK, Belgium, and Holland all have death rates above 10%. These are all modern countries and by now they have accumulated a massive sample size over a long period of time.

It's very worrisome.

You can NOT calculate death rates based on number of positive tests. Most of these countries hardly test, they test patients coming in, healthcare workers and others who report. There are LARGE dark numbers of positives never tested. The real fatality rate of the COVID-19 disease is, as stated many times by WHO, China, and others, is approx 1%.

Example-1:
Norway is listed with a "death rate" of 1.97% - three digit accuracy - so impressing! This is based on the "cases" number of 6,485 and the deaths numb er of 128. Norway test a lot, but they said in a report last week that the real number of positives in Norway is around 15,000. Two digits accuracy... So with the exact number of 128 deaths that makes a death rate of 128 / 15,000 * 100 = 0.85%.

Example-2:
Iceland with 1,711 cases and 4 deaths makes a "death rate" of 0.23%, which is wrong. Iceland have got 8 deaths and 1,711, as per Johns Hopkins and Worldometer, which would give a "death rate" of 0.5%.

BNO News are NOT to be taken serious when they talk about "Death rate". They should be ashamed, abusing numbers that way. They have absolutely no knowledgew of statistics or mathematics, or how these numbers appear, and they can't even get the numbers right.

It is important to know who to trust these days. The following two are recommended, I have followed them since February, and they are to be trusted:

[www.worldometers.info] (Worldometers)

[www.arcgis.com] (Johns Hopkins University)

Not only we don't know the number of the positive people, only those, who were tested as positive, which could be totally different number, but we also have no idea how many people were actually killed by the virus. Everyone who had the virus and died is in the statistics of the people who were killed by the virus. That is totally wrong. The results can be easily wrong 100 times - if for instance there is 10 times more of the positive people and only 1/10 of the people who die with the wirus are actually killed by it.

If we knew the actual number of positive people and the number of people who were really killed by the virus, we would probably get a very different picture. Yet we officialy use the number of positive tests and people who died with the virus in their body and base everything on that. That is wrong.

Also the number of "new cases" is absolutely wrong the way it is presented. It is a number of positive tests, not new cases. In a small country, there can be easily be 10 000 "new cases" (if there were enough of tests) on a day when there is actually no new case at all.

The way all those numbers are presented to public is seriously twisted and we can only guess, whether the reason is that this way it spreads most fear and panic, or something else



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 2020-04-14 11:15 by Happy24.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: bv ()
Date: April 14, 2020 11:20

The number of fatalities from covid-19 is pretty accurate. May be some elderly died from covid-19 in US back in February, when testing was not that available, they may have been defined as flu or something else, and not covid-19. May be some countries like Iran and North Korea under-report fatalities. May be African countries do not have the whole picture. Still, as for most countries, the symptoms are clear, the tests are available, and the cause of the death should be trusted. There is no reason to make conspiracy theories about this number as for the western world.

As for testing an positive cases numbers, we do all know that this number is very limited, too low, and inaccurate, due to the fact that massive testing in a population is highly resource demanding. Apart from countries like Iceland, South Korea and Singapore, few have proper test capacity so far.

Bjornulf

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