Tell Me :
Talk
Right...so you had a point I think, but maybe failed to make it? I for one could benefit from an explanation of what that point was.
1300 cases? if no one tested no one tests positive. even then the real number much higher. There are 1300 cases in 3 clusters, Kirkland, Santa Clara and New Rochelle.
Thanks for that. First class understandable graphic that explains the main purpose of cancelling large public gatherings.
--
Captain Corella
60 Years a Fan
Absolutely. The nightmare scenario is to get very sick and need hospital care and there are no beds and no resources available to take care of you. And in the medical profession they are advancing. They talk about "negative pressure" hospital wards and again, there are only a certain number of them available.
I am going to assume that negative-pressure wards have only been around for 20 years or less. I am not Googling, just guessing like the old days. And we could easily have had them in the 1950s.
That’s a key point - estimated cases in UK (based on rigorous analysis, simulation, etc) publicly estimated by chief medical officer to be 10,000. The number of positive tests in any country a bit of a red herring, true figure much higher
Things will NOT get better. It will get worse. That is the only thing we know for a fact. The virus will increase and double rapidly from now on and for 2-5 months.
Bjornulf
This is an excellent chart. Everybody should spend time understanding it. It is all about the number of days it takes for the coronavirus cases to double in a country.
South Korea and Singapore are exceptional cases. They took immediate action. South Korea test every person with suspicion of the virus. Free of charge. South Korea has been testing may be 200,000 people so far, vs USA, six times population, have tested approx 10,000. You need to KNOW in order to take action!
In South Korea the number of days it took for virus cases to double in numbers
went rapidly from two days into twelve - 12 - days, which is exceptional. Most other countries have now double coronavirus cases every two days.
South Korea did TWO things right immediately:
1. Test everyone
2. Close down all areas and activities (like some other countries do now)
South Korea has 'passed the peak' of the coronavirus outbreak, health minister hopes by CNN
Bjornulf
Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea - great examples of fast action:
1. Test everyone - at no cost
2. Close down all areas
Taiwan has only 47 coronavirus cases. Its response to the crisis shows that swift action and widespread healthcare can prevent an outbreak.
On December 31, Chinese officials notified the World Health Organization that China had several cases of pneumonia. That day, the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control began monitoring passengers who arrived in the country from Wuhan. Government officials boarded flights from Wuhan as soon as they landed, monitoring passengers for symptoms.
Less than a week later, the government began monitoring people who had traveled from Wuhan since December 20.
....
By late January, Taipei had established a Central Epidemic Command Center, centralizing policy measures to protect public health. On January 26, Taiwan became the first country to ban flights from Wuhan.
....
Taiwan's health-insurance system covers 99% of the population, Kolas told NBC News, adding that affordable coverage virtually guarantees that people don't need to choose between their personal and financial health.
....
Bjornulf
This is what the "cases" graph is saying:
100 cases March 7
200 cases March 9
400 cases March 11
The number of cases double every two - 2 - days.
If this continue it will look like this by March 21
800 - 1,600 - 3,200 - 6,400 - 13,200
Unless the Seattle area do extreme measures like Italy, i.e. everyone stay at home, Washington state will have more than 10,000 cases within a week. Italy have got 12,000 cases now.
Bjornulf
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-13 13:08 by bv.
Thank you for breaking this down, Bjornulf. It's the middle of the night here & the coffee hasn't kicked in yet. Can't sleep. I believe the Seattle area is heading to what you describe as far as locking down goes. Already, the city is a ghost town. The streets are empty downtown. A good indication is during normal times we have some of the worst traffic in the country & now the roads are wide open. So, many people are already staying home. In an earlier post by me I said the schools have been ordered closed for 6 weeks. 2 days before that, it was going to be for 2 weeks. The state, county & city officials seem to be on top of the situation & are doing all they can without much support from the national government (not political, i would say that regardless of who was running it). 1 good thing is there hasn't been as much hoarding & panic buying happening here as other areas of the country. A bad thing is I read in the Times that the hospitals, etc are already starting to feel overwhelmed. This doesn't bode well for the future. I will put a link at the end about this. At least people are taking the virus seriously here & have since the problem became apparent. It may not be enough but an effort is being made.
story about health care facilities:
[www.seattletimes.com]
While perhaps a step in the right direction, the idea that the virus isn't going to be spread in groups under 250 is folly. I don't know what the number is, but measures are going to have to be far more drastic than this.
My son’s university in America has put the number at 50.
No more than 50 people in a room. They are doing e learning until April but most likely until end of May.
...and that sounds still like a big number, but I guess then social distancing comes into play, as in how close are people sitting/standing next to one another. I wonder how they came up with the number 50?
I think the point being made by the author is:
1. From the purely statistical evidence (so far) the virus is less of a pandemic than the 2009/10 flu outbreak. Obviously that could change (and rapidly too).
2. The stock markets didn't go into meltdown, ss seems to be the current situation. Of course they may well recover very quickly as and when things get under control. And SOME people will make a huge profit, no doubt.
This is my interpretation, not necessarily my view, by the way.
Talk about your favorite band.
For information about how to use this forum please check out forum help and policies.
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
treaclefingers
()
Date: March 13, 2020 03:40
Quote
Taylor1In2010,60million Americansgotthe swine flu and eleven thousand nine hundred died,including 1100 children.Yet the United States stock market went straight up and nothing closed or shut down.Quote
Thru and ThruQuote
SipunculaQuote
JadedFaded
It is vital that everyone take precautions now. Most people are not taking even simple precautions. At the gym, I see few people washing their hands for 20 seconds. These simple precautions are needed before there are many known cases in an area. otherwise, we won’t “flatten the curve” and health systems will be overwhelmed. Everything Bjornulf has said is completely true.
Sorry, JadedFaded, I don't mean to single you out, but I feel I need to chime in just once. I don't have the time and energy to make a long post about it, but Will everybody please stop freaking out? This hysteria is ridiculous. Before I get accused of being a "science denier" or some other BS, for the record, I am a physician currently and a molecular biology scientist in a prior career. I see sick patients in the hospital and in the clinic on a daily basis. The economic impact of this journalistic and local government malpractice will be devastating and needs to stop. This thing will blow over and the news cycle will move on to the next "sky is falling" story within a month. If the Stones bow in and cancel the tour, I will be disappointed for sure, and that is an understatement. It may not be up to them, as local governments are doing stupid things and may prevent them from playing even if they wanted to. There is a systemic problem here, and it is not the Coronavirus.
CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. This is in the US alone.
Just use common sense, people. Because if we freaked out about the flu every year we wouldn't be able to leave the house from October to March. It would be funny how this isn't pointed out in the media if it wasn't so tragic for the thousands of people who will lose their jobs due to the economic devastation of hype and political nonsense.
I agree 100%, all this hype is getting out of control. US currently has around 1,300 cases, even if that number were to triple, or even increase tenfold, this is a country of 325,000,000+ inhabitants, please keep those numbers in perspective! If everyone uses common sense precautions chances of catching the virus are minimal at best here.
Right...so you had a point I think, but maybe failed to make it? I for one could benefit from an explanation of what that point was.
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
MileHigh
()
Date: March 13, 2020 03:49
Announcements stating that things are closed or postponed until the end of March are unrealistic. The end of March is just a little more than two weeks away. I think it will be on the order of three months of closures and cancellations before the numbers are conclusively showing that we can start to resume life as normal. It's starting to feel like that eerie week after 9/11.
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
MisterDDDD
()
Date: March 13, 2020 03:50
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
daspyknows
()
Date: March 13, 2020 04:14
Quote
Thru and ThruQuote
SipunculaQuote
JadedFaded
It is vital that everyone take precautions now. Most people are not taking even simple precautions. At the gym, I see few people washing their hands for 20 seconds. These simple precautions are needed before there are many known cases in an area. otherwise, we won’t “flatten the curve” and health systems will be overwhelmed. Everything Bjornulf has said is completely true.
Sorry, JadedFaded, I don't mean to single you out, but I feel I need to chime in just once. I don't have the time and energy to make a long post about it, but Will everybody please stop freaking out? This hysteria is ridiculous. Before I get accused of being a "science denier" or some other BS, for the record, I am a physician currently and a molecular biology scientist in a prior career. I see sick patients in the hospital and in the clinic on a daily basis. The economic impact of this journalistic and local government malpractice will be devastating and needs to stop. This thing will blow over and the news cycle will move on to the next "sky is falling" story within a month. If the Stones bow in and cancel the tour, I will be disappointed for sure, and that is an understatement. It may not be up to them, as local governments are doing stupid things and may prevent them from playing even if they wanted to. There is a systemic problem here, and it is not the Coronavirus.
CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. This is in the US alone.
Just use common sense, people. Because if we freaked out about the flu every year we wouldn't be able to leave the house from October to March. It would be funny how this isn't pointed out in the media if it wasn't so tragic for the thousands of people who will lose their jobs due to the economic devastation of hype and political nonsense.
I agree 100%, all this hype is getting out of control. US currently has around 1,300 cases, even if that number were to triple, or even increase tenfold, this is a country of 325,000,000+ inhabitants, please keep those numbers in perspective! If everyone uses common sense precautions chances of catching the virus are minimal at best here.
1300 cases? if no one tested no one tests positive. even then the real number much higher. There are 1300 cases in 3 clusters, Kirkland, Santa Clara and New Rochelle.
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
treaclefingers
()
Date: March 13, 2020 05:03
Canada's first lady, Sophie Trudeau tests positive. Prime Minister is in isolation:
[ca.news.yahoo.com]
[ca.news.yahoo.com]
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
CaptainCorella
()
Date: March 13, 2020 05:04
Thanks for that. First class understandable graphic that explains the main purpose of cancelling large public gatherings.
--
Captain Corella
60 Years a Fan
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
MileHigh
()
Date: March 13, 2020 05:20
Quote
CaptainCorella
Thanks for that. First class understandable graphic that explains the main purpose of cancelling large public gatherings.
Absolutely. The nightmare scenario is to get very sick and need hospital care and there are no beds and no resources available to take care of you. And in the medical profession they are advancing. They talk about "negative pressure" hospital wards and again, there are only a certain number of them available.
I am going to assume that negative-pressure wards have only been around for 20 years or less. I am not Googling, just guessing like the old days. And we could easily have had them in the 1950s.
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
campxray
()
Date: March 13, 2020 05:37
Michigan is starting to shut down. All events being canceled. All K-12 schools are shutting down until at least April 5. Announcement just made by Governor.
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
schwonek
()
Date: March 13, 2020 09:31
NY closes gatherings 250+ - open end!
"Cuomo declined to say how long the ban would last. He said it would be evaluated daily."
[www.reuters.com]
"Cuomo declined to say how long the ban would last. He said it would be evaluated daily."
[www.reuters.com]
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
dcba
()
Date: March 13, 2020 10:12
It would be good to understand how Taiwan only had 48 diseased people and ONE death, while being 100km away from mainland China.
EDIT : I found the answer. As soon as the first cases were reported [in Wu han] they cut off ties with mainland China : quarantine on people coming from or transiting by China.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-13 14:40 by dcba.
EDIT : I found the answer. As soon as the first cases were reported [in Wu han] they cut off ties with mainland China : quarantine on people coming from or transiting by China.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-13 14:40 by dcba.
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
schwonek
()
Date: March 13, 2020 10:55
First corona-death in Norway.
[www.spiegel.de]
[www.spiegel.de]
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
MAF
()
Date: March 13, 2020 11:08
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
crholmstrom
()
Date: March 13, 2020 11:34
The schools in the greater Seattle area are now to be closed for 6 weeks.
[www.seattletimes.com]
This isn't a political statement but a personal observation: I think our governor in Washington state, Jay Inslee, is doing a fine job during extremely difficult times. He's been very proactive with measures to try & control the outbreak. Showing some real leadership when it is most needed. He was running for president for a short time on a climate change platform. It didn't take with the voters & I'm glad our state didn't lose him. Gov Newsom in California seems to be doing a pretty good job, too. Regardless of politics, good guys to have on the front line in the states during this crisis. Just my opinion, not trying to start a debate with anybody.
[www.seattletimes.com]
This isn't a political statement but a personal observation: I think our governor in Washington state, Jay Inslee, is doing a fine job during extremely difficult times. He's been very proactive with measures to try & control the outbreak. Showing some real leadership when it is most needed. He was running for president for a short time on a climate change platform. It didn't take with the voters & I'm glad our state didn't lose him. Gov Newsom in California seems to be doing a pretty good job, too. Regardless of politics, good guys to have on the front line in the states during this crisis. Just my opinion, not trying to start a debate with anybody.
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
yorkshirestone
()
Date: March 13, 2020 11:36
Quote
daspyknowsQuote
Thru and ThruQuote
SipunculaQuote
JadedFaded
It is vital that everyone take precautions now. Most people are not taking even simple precautions. At the gym, I see few people washing their hands for 20 seconds. These simple precautions are needed before there are many known cases in an area. otherwise, we won’t “flatten the curve” and health systems will be overwhelmed. Everything Bjornulf has said is completely true.
Sorry, JadedFaded, I don't mean to single you out, but I feel I need to chime in just once. I don't have the time and energy to make a long post about it, but Will everybody please stop freaking out? This hysteria is ridiculous. Before I get accused of being a "science denier" or some other BS, for the record, I am a physician currently and a molecular biology scientist in a prior career. I see sick patients in the hospital and in the clinic on a daily basis. The economic impact of this journalistic and local government malpractice will be devastating and needs to stop. This thing will blow over and the news cycle will move on to the next "sky is falling" story within a month. If the Stones bow in and cancel the tour, I will be disappointed for sure, and that is an understatement. It may not be up to them, as local governments are doing stupid things and may prevent them from playing even if they wanted to. There is a systemic problem here, and it is not the Coronavirus.
CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. This is in the US alone.
Just use common sense, people. Because if we freaked out about the flu every year we wouldn't be able to leave the house from October to March. It would be funny how this isn't pointed out in the media if it wasn't so tragic for the thousands of people who will lose their jobs due to the economic devastation of hype and political nonsense.
I agree 100%, all this hype is getting out of control. US currently has around 1,300 cases, even if that number were to triple, or even increase tenfold, this is a country of 325,000,000+ inhabitants, please keep those numbers in perspective! If everyone uses common sense precautions chances of catching the virus are minimal at best here.
1300 cases? if no one tested no one tests positive. even then the real number much higher. There are 1300 cases in 3 clusters, Kirkland, Santa Clara and New Rochelle.
That’s a key point - estimated cases in UK (based on rigorous analysis, simulation, etc) publicly estimated by chief medical officer to be 10,000. The number of positive tests in any country a bit of a red herring, true figure much higher
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
bv
()
Date: March 13, 2020 12:09
Quote
Keefy
Here's what I'm thinking. There will be no announcement on Stones tour until April. If things get better,tour goes on.If things get worse, then you get cancelation. I think the next 2 weeks are going to show what's going on with the virus..
Things will NOT get better. It will get worse. That is the only thing we know for a fact. The virus will increase and double rapidly from now on and for 2-5 months.
Bjornulf
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
Father Ted
()
Date: March 13, 2020 12:21
Quote
bvQuote
Keefy
Here's what I'm thinking. There will be no announcement on Stones tour until April. If things get better,tour goes on.If things get worse, then you get cancelation. I think the next 2 weeks are going to show what's going on with the virus..
Things will NOT get better. It will get worse. That is the only thing we know for a fact. The virus will increase and double rapidly from now on and for 2-5 months.[/quote}
That is total speculation on your part. Don't lose your perspective and get taken for a ride the hysterical media and politicians.
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
bv
()
Date: March 13, 2020 12:25
This is an excellent chart. Everybody should spend time understanding it. It is all about the number of days it takes for the coronavirus cases to double in a country.
South Korea and Singapore are exceptional cases. They took immediate action. South Korea test every person with suspicion of the virus. Free of charge. South Korea has been testing may be 200,000 people so far, vs USA, six times population, have tested approx 10,000. You need to KNOW in order to take action!
In South Korea the number of days it took for virus cases to double in numbers
went rapidly from two days into twelve - 12 - days, which is exceptional. Most other countries have now double coronavirus cases every two days.
South Korea did TWO things right immediately:
1. Test everyone
2. Close down all areas and activities (like some other countries do now)
South Korea has 'passed the peak' of the coronavirus outbreak, health minister hopes by CNN
Bjornulf
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
bv
()
Date: March 13, 2020 12:36
Quote
dcba
It would be good to understand how Taiwan only had 48 diseased people and ONE death, while being 100km away from mainland China.
EDIT : I found the answer. As soon as the first cases were reported they cut off ties with mainland China : quarantine on people coming from or transiting by China.
Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea - great examples of fast action:
1. Test everyone - at no cost
2. Close down all areas
Taiwan has only 47 coronavirus cases. Its response to the crisis shows that swift action and widespread healthcare can prevent an outbreak.
On December 31, Chinese officials notified the World Health Organization that China had several cases of pneumonia. That day, the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control began monitoring passengers who arrived in the country from Wuhan. Government officials boarded flights from Wuhan as soon as they landed, monitoring passengers for symptoms.
Less than a week later, the government began monitoring people who had traveled from Wuhan since December 20.
....
By late January, Taipei had established a Central Epidemic Command Center, centralizing policy measures to protect public health. On January 26, Taiwan became the first country to ban flights from Wuhan.
....
Taiwan's health-insurance system covers 99% of the population, Kolas told NBC News, adding that affordable coverage virtually guarantees that people don't need to choose between their personal and financial health.
....
Bjornulf
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
crholmstrom
()
Date: March 13, 2020 12:38
here is a good illustration (courtesy of Seattle Times) about how fast the numbers are rising in Washington state as more test kits become available. pretty scary. we still have a long way to go in regards to testing. i expect that once the data becomes available, these graphs will change dramatically most likely for the worse. i am hoping to get tested next week. i have some symptoms but didn't meet the threshold to qualify for a test until now. it would be good for my peace of mind if nothing else but i want to be safe for myself & others. until i know for sure, i am in self quarantine. trying to be responsible in regards to the community. everyone be safe & well out there.
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
bv
()
Date: March 13, 2020 12:42
Those who say things will get better next month, are thinking like those who drive their car at 100 miles per hour into a mountain wall, and close their eyes. Sure you do not need to worry about what is happening, because you do not see it, but the mountain wall is still there. The only way to survive is to step on the breaks. Fast. Now.
Bjornulf
Bjornulf
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
bv
()
Date: March 13, 2020 12:50
Quote
crholmstrom
here is a good illustration (courtesy of Seattle Times) about how fast the numbers are rising in Washington state as more test kits become available. pretty scary. we still have a long way to go in regards to testing. i expect that once the data becomes available, these graphs will change dramatically most likely for the worse. i am hoping to get tested next week. i have some symptoms but didn't meet the threshold to qualify for a test until now. it would be good for my peace of mind if nothing else but i want to be safe for myself & others. until i know for sure, i am in self quarantine. trying to be responsible in regards to the community. everyone be safe & well out there.
This is what the "cases" graph is saying:
100 cases March 7
200 cases March 9
400 cases March 11
The number of cases double every two - 2 - days.
If this continue it will look like this by March 21
800 - 1,600 - 3,200 - 6,400 - 13,200
Unless the Seattle area do extreme measures like Italy, i.e. everyone stay at home, Washington state will have more than 10,000 cases within a week. Italy have got 12,000 cases now.
Bjornulf
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-13 13:08 by bv.
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
TheGreek
()
Date: March 13, 2020 12:57
The United States is woefully unprepared to test for COVID-19 on a mass scale as other countries are doing . Shame on us for sticking our heads in the sand thinking naively that it will get better by ignoring the catastrophic Pandemic that has befallen us . I will not point fingers as it's obvious . In my neck of the woods the local hospital a stones throw from my home has now set up the tent to administer to the sick people . This is what it has come down to with tents like a third world country , not the richest and most sophisticated nation on earth . Pretty pathetic when the ones that should be watching out and caring for us are to busy worried about there investments and there pockets . God Help us all ! My best friends mother in law is 85 and is now in hospital as she has broken ribs and a punctured lung , the ribs that have fractures , some are old , some are new, she lives on her own independently and had to have fallen somewhere . Her poor family is freaked out for her health and safety and well being and freaked out about being in the hospital. Events all around us are being cancelled , same for schools . It was quite eerie driving home from work yesterday and running errands as I expect to see the normal volumes of traffic on the roads and streets from normal commuters and school buses packed with kids and the roads being quite empty . In times like this are minds are conditioned to look for leadership and that is such an empty feeling and quite like being abandoned and really truly having to fend for ourselves . I get up every morning and still come to work and I still have the structured life like I always have had and expected , and yet at the same time I am seeing and hearing about the destructive COVID-19 running amok and becoming more concerned as each day passes .
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
yorkshirestone
()
Date: March 13, 2020 13:17
all English professional football (premier, championship, leagues 1-2) off until 3rd april
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
MAF
()
Date: March 13, 2020 13:20
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
crholmstrom
()
Date: March 13, 2020 13:31
Quote
bvQuote
crholmstrom
here is a good illustration (courtesy of Seattle Times) about how fast the numbers are rising in Washington state as more test kits become available. pretty scary. we still have a long way to go in regards to testing. i expect that once the data becomes available, these graphs will change dramatically most likely for the worse. i am hoping to get tested next week. i have some symptoms but didn't meet the threshold to qualify for a test until now. it would be good for my peace of mind if nothing else but i want to be safe for myself & others. until i know for sure, i am in self quarantine. trying to be responsible in regards to the community. everyone be safe & well out there.
This is what the "cases" graph is saying:
100 cases March 7
200 cases March 9
400 cases March 11
The number of cases double every two - 2 - days.
If this continue it will look like this by March 21
800 - 1,600 - 3,200 - 6,400 - 13,200
Unless the Seattle area do extreme measures like Italy, i.e. everyone stay at home, Washington state will have more than 10,000 cases within a week. Italy have got 12,000 cases now.
Thank you for breaking this down, Bjornulf. It's the middle of the night here & the coffee hasn't kicked in yet. Can't sleep. I believe the Seattle area is heading to what you describe as far as locking down goes. Already, the city is a ghost town. The streets are empty downtown. A good indication is during normal times we have some of the worst traffic in the country & now the roads are wide open. So, many people are already staying home. In an earlier post by me I said the schools have been ordered closed for 6 weeks. 2 days before that, it was going to be for 2 weeks. The state, county & city officials seem to be on top of the situation & are doing all they can without much support from the national government (not political, i would say that regardless of who was running it). 1 good thing is there hasn't been as much hoarding & panic buying happening here as other areas of the country. A bad thing is I read in the Times that the hospitals, etc are already starting to feel overwhelmed. This doesn't bode well for the future. I will put a link at the end about this. At least people are taking the virus seriously here & have since the problem became apparent. It may not be enough but an effort is being made.
story about health care facilities:
[www.seattletimes.com]
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
bv
()
Date: March 13, 2020 13:31
Coronavirus vs Stones Tour 2020 Q&A:
Q: When will the peak of the coronavirus be?
A: May-Aug (Norway officials) - 10-14 weeks i.e. June (UK officials)
Q: Why are actions like flights to USA banned for just 30 days?
A: Because they do this month by month
Q: Why don't we hear about the status of the Stones tour in May-July?
A: Because it is still more than 30 days away
Bjornulf
Q: When will the peak of the coronavirus be?
A: May-Aug (Norway officials) - 10-14 weeks i.e. June (UK officials)
Q: Why are actions like flights to USA banned for just 30 days?
A: Because they do this month by month
Q: Why don't we hear about the status of the Stones tour in May-July?
A: Because it is still more than 30 days away
Bjornulf
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
treaclefingers
()
Date: March 13, 2020 13:49
Quote
schwonek
NY closes gatherings 250+ - open end!
"Cuomo declined to say how long the ban would last. He said it would be evaluated daily."
[www.reuters.com]
While perhaps a step in the right direction, the idea that the virus isn't going to be spread in groups under 250 is folly. I don't know what the number is, but measures are going to have to be far more drastic than this.
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
FlyoverStones
()
Date: March 13, 2020 14:03
Quote
treaclefingersQuote
schwonek
NY closes gatherings 250+ - open end!
"Cuomo declined to say how long the ban would last. He said it would be evaluated daily."
[www.reuters.com]
While perhaps a step in the right direction, the idea that the virus isn't going to be spread in groups under 250 is folly. I don't know what the number is, but measures are going to have to be far more drastic than this.
My son’s university in America has put the number at 50.
No more than 50 people in a room. They are doing e learning until April but most likely until end of May.
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
treaclefingers
()
Date: March 13, 2020 14:17
Quote
FlyoverStonesQuote
treaclefingersQuote
schwonek
NY closes gatherings 250+ - open end!
"Cuomo declined to say how long the ban would last. He said it would be evaluated daily."
[www.reuters.com]
While perhaps a step in the right direction, the idea that the virus isn't going to be spread in groups under 250 is folly. I don't know what the number is, but measures are going to have to be far more drastic than this.
My son’s university in America has put the number at 50.
No more than 50 people in a room. They are doing e learning until April but most likely until end of May.
...and that sounds still like a big number, but I guess then social distancing comes into play, as in how close are people sitting/standing next to one another. I wonder how they came up with the number 50?
Re: Coronavirus disease COVID-19 and The Rolling Stones US/CA 2020 Tour
Posted by:
jlowe
()
Date: March 13, 2020 14:17
Quote
treaclefingersQuote
Taylor1In2010,60million Americansgotthe swine flu and eleven thousand nine hundred died,including 1100 children.Yet the United States stock market went straight up and nothing closed or shut down.Quote
Thru and ThruQuote
SipunculaQuote
JadedFaded
It is vital that everyone take precautions now. Most people are not taking even simple precautions. At the gym, I see few people washing their hands for 20 seconds. These simple precautions are needed before there are many known cases in an area. otherwise, we won’t “flatten the curve” and health systems will be overwhelmed. Everything Bjornulf has said is completely true.
Sorry, JadedFaded, I don't mean to single you out, but I feel I need to chime in just once. I don't have the time and energy to make a long post about it, but Will everybody please stop freaking out? This hysteria is ridiculous. Before I get accused of being a "science denier" or some other BS, for the record, I am a physician currently and a molecular biology scientist in a prior career. I see sick patients in the hospital and in the clinic on a daily basis. The economic impact of this journalistic and local government malpractice will be devastating and needs to stop. This thing will blow over and the news cycle will move on to the next "sky is falling" story within a month. If the Stones bow in and cancel the tour, I will be disappointed for sure, and that is an understatement. It may not be up to them, as local governments are doing stupid things and may prevent them from playing even if they wanted to. There is a systemic problem here, and it is not the Coronavirus.
CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. This is in the US alone.
Just use common sense, people. Because if we freaked out about the flu every year we wouldn't be able to leave the house from October to March. It would be funny how this isn't pointed out in the media if it wasn't so tragic for the thousands of people who will lose their jobs due to the economic devastation of hype and political nonsense.
I agree 100%, all this hype is getting out of control. US currently has around 1,300 cases, even if that number were to triple, or even increase tenfold, this is a country of 325,000,000+ inhabitants, please keep those numbers in perspective! If everyone uses common sense precautions chances of catching the virus are minimal at best here.
Right...so you had a point I think, but maybe failed to make it? I for one could benefit from an explanation of what that point was.
I think the point being made by the author is:
1. From the purely statistical evidence (so far) the virus is less of a pandemic than the 2009/10 flu outbreak. Obviously that could change (and rapidly too).
2. The stock markets didn't go into meltdown, ss seems to be the current situation. Of course they may well recover very quickly as and when things get under control. And SOME people will make a huge profit, no doubt.
This is my interpretation, not necessarily my view, by the way.
This Thread has been closed
Online Users
babyblue , bv , ChrisL , crawdaddy , crholmstrom , Dan , doubledoor , mailexile67 , michaj , NoPanic , Potato , rastakeith , RollingFreak , spunky , straycatuk , syrel , TooTight , TW2019 , werner67976 , Whale , wiredallnight
Guests:
2062
Record Number of Users:
206
on June 1, 2022 23:50
Record Number of Guests:
9627
on January 2, 2024 23:10