Weekly fatality rate update

Italy, Spain, France are all having the same decrease in the fatality rate, now down to 1.06, i.e. 6% more fatalities per week.

USA and UK both have decreasing numbers, but the decrease is going slower than the decrease we have seen in other countries with similar history.

The other countries listed do all have decreases, meaning the lockdown is working as expected in all countries listed. As countries are opening up during May/June, we will see how that is showing up in the fatality rates.



Explanation:

m-08, m-15, a-05, m-03, m10 etc are the multiplication factor in the number of deaths week-by-week, as measured on the week ending with March-08, March-15, April-05, May-03, May-10 etc.

Reference numbers:

[www.worldometers.info]

Bjornulf

Opening up more shops etc today in Prague...Beer gardens,cafes,restaurant's will see how it goes limited seating and the weather is cold and rainy...

South Korea reported 34 new coronavirus infections Sunday, its highest daily tally in about a month, following an outbreak tied to several nightclubs and bars.

Korean health officials said that 24 of the new cases originate from Seoul's Itaewon neighborhood. Authorities had recently identified a 29-year-old man who tested positive for the virus after visiting five nightclubs and bars in the commercial district.

Authorities believe as many as 1,500 people were in attendance during the time the man said he visited those clubs over the weekend of May 1.

South Korea Records Spike In New Coronavirus Cases After Nightclub Outbreak (NPR May 10, 2020)

Bjornulf

I'm a bit afraid that the hockey season will not start in September as usual here in Sweden. Last season was ended prematurely. Without a winner being selected.
I live in a hockey town in the north of Sweden so football is not that important to me (except for our national team of course). I don't mind that much that the
Olympics and many other big championships will be moved or cancelled. But I do worry about the upcoming hockey season. How about you? Which sports do you miss?
And what do you think about the future of sports in these Corona times?

Darts

__________________________

Still waiting to see what happens to the current NHL season! Even if they play in empty arenas, how many of the players would want to be playing? Same goes for NBA, upcoming baseball and football seasons.

I don't want more than one corona virus thread here on IORR. Sports, concerts, all sorts of life will be affected, but I do not have time to moderate several corona virus threads here, sorry.

Also, like concerts, sports, and the way forward, is so closely connected to the actual virus state, it would be impossible to close your eyes from the virus and just talk about sports, like the virus did not exist. Talks in this thread are giving anyone the background on why and how sports may move forward. The same goes for concerts, and other cultural events.

Bjornulf

The commercial TV station TV2 in Norway started broadcasts of the Faroe Islands football series on TV this week-end. So that football crazy people may watch football on TV. There are almost no corona virus issues on the Faroe Islands, and they test almost every person, so they may do more or less anything they like. The Faroe Islands football series is ranked number three from the bottom of the list of the best series in Europe. For me, watching low quality football is almost as boring as watching wet paint dry up.

I see these days as an opportunity. Less sports, less concerts, less dining out, less spending money on travel. It is like going on a trip without having a return ticket. The trip may take 3, 6, 9, 12 or 18 months. I will probably survive this trip. Meanwhile, I do the best of it. I see my family, I see friends one day, and I don't really worry much about sports and concerts. I worry more about keeping the old people safe, by keeping the virus down. Knowing any activity might increase the number of virus cases, it would be pretty selfish of me to expect sports to happen, when around 200,000 people have died from the corona virus.

May me I have been lucky. I had my biking accident in September, I was locked into my home all winter, unable to walk much outside, except for a quick trip to see Ronnie in London back in November, being on crutches. Then the virus locked us all down mid March. So I had seven months of lockdown experience already.

They say Bundesliga will start up soon, and I am pretty sure Premier League will be on too soon, with plenty of money put into testing and tracing. For me it is sort of a luxury activity, knowing that people die in the favelas in Brazil, and knowing that the virus is still spreading fast across many other areas. The money spend on getting sports going could be spent in another way, a much better way. We don't need sports to survive, but people do need testing and tracing to survive.

Bjornulf

We have the NFL Thread where OT Sports are often discussed and welcomed. It is a user friendly thread if you pull for the right teams!

The quote below is from a discussion that I came across and I got to wondering about this "herd immunity thing"

"People are talking like "herd immunity" is a "state" you reach and it needs to stop
Sorry, this has just been irritating me for a while. People have been talking about just letting the virus run its course until we "reach herd immunity", and the fundamental misunderstanding there is pretty glaring. 

I won't bother with how many people that would kill, though that's it's own reason to avoid the idea. There's a category error here I'm going to look at instead. It's not as if a population reaches "herd immunity" and then voila the disease is solved. Every time a child is born or an immune person dies, the immune percentage drops. 

This is how smallpox, measles, etc. were able to ravage the world for centuries: sure, the village builds up an immunity after a single outbreak, but 20 years later the population isn't immune anymore. 

The only way herd immunity can be maintained is with a vaccine. That's what we did with smallpox. It's what we did with measles until wingnuts decided vaccines cause 5G towers or whatever the story is today. Herd immunity isn't some magical state of grace; it takes a lot of public health work to maintain and one jackass with a Youtube video can end up knocking it all down."

So I went looking for a definition and found this:

Herd Immunity frm Wikipedia


Herd immunity (also called herd effect, community immunity, population immunity, or social immunity) is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through previous infections or vaccination, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune.[1][2] In a population in which a large proportion of individuals possess immunity, such people being unlikely to contribute to disease transmission, chains of infection are more likely to be disrupted, which either stops or slows the spread of disease.[3] The greater the proportion of immune individuals in a community, the smaller the probability that non-immune individuals will come into contact with an infectious individual, helping to shield non-immune individuals from infection.[1]
Individuals can become immune by recovering from an earlier infection or through vaccination.[3] Some individuals cannot become immune because of medical conditions, such as an immunodeficiency or immunosuppression, and for this group herd immunity is a crucial method of protection.[4][5] Once a certain threshold has been reached, herd immunity gradually eliminates a disease from a population.[5] This elimination, if achieved worldwide, may result in the permanent reduction in the number of infections to zero, called eradication.[6] Herd immunity created via vaccination contributed to the eventual eradication of smallpox in 1977 and has contributed to the reduction of the frequencies of other diseases.[7] Herd immunity does not apply to all diseases, just those that are contagious, meaning that they can be transmitted from one individual to another.[5] Tetanus, for example, is infectious but not contagious, so herd immunity does not apply.[4]
Herd immunity was recognized as a naturally occurring phenomenon in the 1930s when it was observed that after a significant number of children had become immune to measles, the number of new infections temporarily decreased, including among susceptible children.[8]Mass vaccination to induce herd immunity has since become common and proved successful in preventing the spread of many infectious diseases.[9] Opposition to vaccination has posed a challenge to herd immunity, allowing preventable diseases to persist in or return to communities that have inadequate vaccination rates.[10][11][12]


I kinda think that the current herd is a mighty small one and nothing to bet on.

Is the COVid-19 indirectly causing other deaths? Folks whom normally go the emergency room for other ailments are staying home.


[www.independent.co.uk]

Quote
Chris Fountain
Is the COVid-19 indirectly causing other deaths? Folks whom normally go the emergency room for other ailments are staying home.


[www.independent.co.uk]

It undoubtedly is. Most people here know of someone who went to hospital for a non-Covid reason and came out with a case of the virus (I personally know three, one of whom died). So it's understandable that folk don't want to go there unless it's unavoidable, and that means they may postpone going to A&E or calling the ambulance until it's too late.

Quote
curt
The quote below is from a discussion that I came across and I got to wondering about this "herd immunity thing"

"People are talking like "herd immunity" is a "state" you reach and it needs to stop
Sorry, this has just been irritating me for a while. People have been talking about just letting the virus run its course until we "reach herd immunity", and the fundamental misunderstanding there is pretty glaring. 

I won't bother with how many people that would kill, though that's it's own reason to avoid the idea. There's a category error here I'm going to look at instead. It's not as if a population reaches "herd immunity" and then voila the disease is solved. Every time a child is born or an immune person dies, the immune percentage drops. 

This is how smallpox, measles, etc. were able to ravage the world for centuries: sure, the village builds up an immunity after a single outbreak, but 20 years later the population isn't immune anymore. 

The only way herd immunity can be maintained is with a vaccine. That's what we did with smallpox. It's what we did with measles until wingnuts decided vaccines cause 5G towers or whatever the story is today. Herd immunity isn't some magical state of grace; it takes a lot of public health work to maintain and one jackass with a Youtube video can end up knocking it all down."

So I went looking for a definition and found this:

Herd Immunity frm Wikipedia


Herd immunity (also called herd effect, community immunity, population immunity, or social immunity) is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through previous infections or vaccination, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune.[1][2] In a population in which a large proportion of individuals possess immunity, such people being unlikely to contribute to disease transmission, chains of infection are more likely to be disrupted, which either stops or slows the spread of disease.[3] The greater the proportion of immune individuals in a community, the smaller the probability that non-immune individuals will come into contact with an infectious individual, helping to shield non-immune individuals from infection.[1]
Individuals can become immune by recovering from an earlier infection or through vaccination.[3] Some individuals cannot become immune because of medical conditions, such as an immunodeficiency or immunosuppression, and for this group herd immunity is a crucial method of protection.[4][5] Once a certain threshold has been reached, herd immunity gradually eliminates a disease from a population.[5] This elimination, if achieved worldwide, may result in the permanent reduction in the number of infections to zero, called eradication.[6] Herd immunity created via vaccination contributed to the eventual eradication of smallpox in 1977 and has contributed to the reduction of the frequencies of other diseases.[7] Herd immunity does not apply to all diseases, just those that are contagious, meaning that they can be transmitted from one individual to another.[5] Tetanus, for example, is infectious but not contagious, so herd immunity does not apply.[4]
Herd immunity was recognized as a naturally occurring phenomenon in the 1930s when it was observed that after a significant number of children had become immune to measles, the number of new infections temporarily decreased, including among susceptible children.[8]Mass vaccination to induce herd immunity has since become common and proved successful in preventing the spread of many infectious diseases.[9] Opposition to vaccination has posed a challenge to herd immunity, allowing preventable diseases to persist in or return to communities that have inadequate vaccination rates.[10][11][12]


I kinda think that the current herd is a mighty small one and nothing to bet on.

I can't stand that herd immunity myth. It's so stupid. If that was the case no one would need a flu-shot and a gazillion other things.

Typically, 93% to 95% of a population must be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity and prevent an outbreak of measles. Currently, the coverage rate in the US for the vaccine against measles in children 19–35 months is 90.4%, not even within that range. In 20 states, the vaccination rate is below 90%.

But even in states with rates above 93%, herd immunity offers no guarantees. The protective effect of herd immunity can vary based on the “herd” that an individual moves with. Relocation, travel or even a new circle of friends can change the composition of one’s herd, and thus its shared protection against infection.

[www.globalhealthnow.org]

Herd immunity is not a myth. It doesn't kill the virus though. In my opinion it looks like a better strategy than locking up a population for years to come.
I think that what it's about: To choose the best strategy to combat the virus. In the short run and in the long run.

Quote
Stoneage
Herd immunity is not a myth. It doesn't kill the virus though. In my opinion it looks like a better strategy than locking up a population for years to come.
I think that what it's about: To choose the best strategy to combat the virus. In the short run and in the long run.

The myth part is everyone getting exposed on purpose - it doesn't work.

If it did, polio and measles - did you read the article?

This is fantastic:

...before Pence joined them on the stage, someone came in and asked all five guests to remove their masks, which they all did dutifully...

[slate.com]

Quote
StonedInTokyo

Quote
daspyknows
We feel your pain in the U.S. Our two countries are showing what not to do in slightly different but deadly ways.

Ultimately it's a matter of personal responsibility isn't it? Oh right, it never is and the only solution to any problem is always more big government oversight.

Personal responsibility? Are you serious? When government leaders in both U.S. and Brazil demonstrate zero personal responsibility and lead by example?

Do you demonstrate personal responsibility or is your right to do what you want more important exhibiting personal responsibility?

Was this guy demonstrating personal responsibility? Just takes one.
[www.npr.org]



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-05-11 19:46 by daspyknows.

Quote
GasLightStreet

Quote
Stoneage
Herd immunity is not a myth. It doesn't kill the virus though. In my opinion it looks like a better strategy than locking up a population for years to come.
I think that what it's about: To choose the best strategy to combat the virus. In the short run and in the long run.

The myth part is everyone getting exposed on purpose - it doesn't work.

If it did, polio and measles - did you read the article?

To polio and measles we do have vaccines. That's the difference. And of course no one should be exposed "on purpose". What I'm talking about is different strategies to combat the virus in the long run.
We can't lock up a population for years to come...

Quote
bv
Weekly fatality rate update

Italy, Spain, France are all having the same decrease in the fatality rate, now down to 1.06, i.e. 6% more fatalities per week.

USA and UK both have decreasing numbers, but the decrease is going slower than the decrease we have seen in other countries with similar history.

The other countries listed do all have decreases, meaning the lockdown is working as expected in all countries listed. As countries are opening up during May/June, we will see how that is showing up in the fatality rates.



Explanation:

m-08, m-15, a-05, m-03, m10 etc are the multiplication factor in the number of deaths week-by-week, as measured on the week ending with March-08, March-15, April-05, May-03, May-10 etc.

Reference numbers:

[www.worldometers.info]

The biggest issue with U.S, numbers is there needs to be a NY Metro Area and U.S. excluding NY metro. It changes the curves. I know it is not the point of this statistical presentation but it also makes the U.S. numbers look much better than reality.

Quote
Chris Fountain
Is the COVid-19 indirectly causing other deaths? Folks whom normally go the emergency room for other ailments are staying home.


[www.independent.co.uk]

Probably the best way to judge this is to look at a population's death rate per 100k. If the rate has double over the 5 year running average then it is safe to assume a large proportion is attributable either directly or indirectly to Covid-19.

Quote
Stoneage

Quote
GasLightStreet

Quote
Stoneage
Herd immunity is not a myth. It doesn't kill the virus though. In my opinion it looks like a better strategy than locking up a population for years to come.
I think that what it's about: To choose the best strategy to combat the virus. In the short run and in the long run.

The myth part is everyone getting exposed on purpose - it doesn't work.

If it did, polio and measles - did you read the article?

To polio and measles we do have vaccines. That's the difference. And of course no one should be exposed "on purpose". What I'm talking about is different strategies to combat the virus in the long run.
We can't lock up a population for years to come...

Perhaps I wasn't clear: the myth is that everyone gets exposed and therefor there is herd immunity.

That doesn't work.

The only way it can work is with vaccinations.


It's one thing if you get it but it's another to purposely get it. At least, that seems logical to me.

Quote
daspyknows

Quote
bv
Weekly fatality rate update

Italy, Spain, France are all having the same decrease in the fatality rate, now down to 1.06, i.e. 6% more fatalities per week.

USA and UK both have decreasing numbers, but the decrease is going slower than the decrease we have seen in other countries with similar history.

The other countries listed do all have decreases, meaning the lockdown is working as expected in all countries listed. As countries are opening up during May/June, we will see how that is showing up in the fatality rates.



Explanation:

m-08, m-15, a-05, m-03, m10 etc are the multiplication factor in the number of deaths week-by-week, as measured on the week ending with March-08, March-15, April-05, May-03, May-10 etc.

Reference numbers:

[www.worldometers.info]

The biggest issue with U.S, numbers is there needs to be a NY Metro Area and U.S. excluding NY metro. It changes the curves. I know it is not the point of this statistical presentation but it also makes the U.S. numbers look much better than reality.

We need a Coronalectoral College!

Quote
daspyknows

Quote
StonedInTokyo

Quote
daspyknows
We feel your pain in the U.S. Our two countries are showing what not to do in slightly different but deadly ways.

Ultimately it's a matter of personal responsibility isn't it? Oh right, it never is and the only solution to any problem is always more big government oversight.

Personal responsibility? Are you serious? When government leaders in both U.S. and Brazil demonstrate zero personal responsibility and lead by example?

Do you demonstrate personal responsibility or is your right to do what you want more important exhibiting personal responsibility?

LOL doesn't everyone know that liberty overrules leading by example as well as personal responsibility?

Welcome to The United States Of Pandemica!

Quote
GasLightStreet

Quote
daspyknows

Quote
StonedInTokyo

Quote
daspyknows
We feel your pain in the U.S. Our two countries are showing what not to do in slightly different but deadly ways.

Ultimately it's a matter of personal responsibility isn't it? Oh right, it never is and the only solution to any problem is always more big government oversight.

Personal responsibility? Are you serious? When government leaders in both U.S. and Brazil demonstrate zero personal responsibility and lead by example?

Do you demonstrate personal responsibility or is your right to do what you want more important exhibiting personal responsibility?

LOL doesn't everyone know that liberty overrules leading by example as well as personal responsibility?

Welcome to The United States Of Pandemica!

New motto Live Free AND Die

Herd immunity and vaccine policy:

There is no way any country in the world would have any ambition on building herd immunity versus a dangerous disease like HIV/AIDS, EBOLA, SARS or MERS. The same is valid for the novel corona virus covid-19. It is too dangerous for our health system, and to our economy, to be allowed out in the free, to build natural herd immunity.

The world population is some 8 billion people. With covid-19 going generic, across the world, with no lockdown, the fatalities worldwide within the next few months would be 0.5% - 1% of the world's population, i.e. 40-80 million people would die. The economies would be wiped out, so would our morals, ethics and respect as human beings.

Luckily most people are smart. People take their own measures, so we do get the virus down to an acceptable level, even if some leaders do open up.

Bjornulf



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-05-11 19:34 by bv.

The world population is some 8 billion people. With covid-19 going generic, across the world, with no lockdown, the fatalities worldwide within the next few months would be 0.5% - 1% of the world's population, i.e. 40-80 million people would die. The economies would be wiped out, so would our morals, ethics and respect as human beings.


Let me play Devil's advocate, if you will. The roaring 20s in U.S. occurred directly after the the 1918-1920 Spanish Flu Epidemic. Directly following crisis, Economically, U.S. did great. However, I can't defend post epidemic morals as even with prohibition, violations were rampant and indulgence was the norm.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-05-11 20:56 by Chris Fountain.

Speaking of Personal Responsibility:

[www.bostonglobe.com]

Doctors and scientists are discovering two common characteristics among many of those who are losing their battle with COVID-19 — they are overweight or obese and suffer from a chronic disease. Ninety four percent of deaths from COVID-19 are in those with an underlying age-related chronic disease, mostly caused by excess body fat.

the vast majority of hospitalized patients are overweight or suffer from a diet-related chronic disease such as diabetes, heart disease, lung disease, or cancer. Adjusting for other risk factors, Americans with obesity have a more than four times higher risk of hospitalization, while those with severe obesity (a body mass index of over 40 versus 30 for obesity) have a more than six times higher risk.

The Age -- 11 May 2020



ROCKMAN

No offense ,What are Jacquelin Magnay's credential's? This article is all over the map - but thanks for posting - as all information needs to be heard!!

cant help ... never met her ...



ROCKMAN