You are presented with three identical crates, each approximately 1 meter square.
"Monte", the man who shows you the crates, knows the contents of the three boxes.

Monte explains that ONE of the 3 boxes contains a priceless collection of recordings of every
Rolling Stones studio outtake, every live performance from soundboard recording, as well as
DVDs of every live Stones performance ever, plus official releases. The other TWO boxes
contain worthless packages of metal and plastic. Monte tells you that you may choose any one
box... and the contents are yours to keep.

You make your selection, which obviously has a one in three chance of being the box with the
prize. However, before Monte reveals the contents of the box that you just chose, he opens one of
the other boxes... and reveals that it is one of the two boxes which contains worthless scrap.
Monte makes you an offer... Would you like to stay with your original choice, or switch to
the other unopened box? he asks.

Should you switch? Are the odds better? Or is it now "fifty-fifty" and it doesn't matter?

another slow day at the balloon factory, eh schillid?
have some popcorn

WTF

"No dope smoking no beer sold after 12 o'clock"

I'd hit Monte over the head and run off with the good box. Then I'd post all the tapes on IORR for everyone. Mawwahahaaa.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2008-02-23 02:28 by StonesBlake.

Quote
with sssoul
another slow day at the balloon factory, eh schillid?
have some popcorn

FINALLY!
A fairly busy week till now, though. (Knock on wood... My week ain't quite over for a few more hours...)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2008-02-23 02:30 by schillid.

Must be a helium leak in the joint...



Track 9 might help...........



ROCKMAN

Pssssssssss................

Kick Monte in the balls, grab the crates and run like f**k....

[www.google.com]

What would Monte know? He's...obviously an idiot could figure it out because the one with the Stones goodies would weigh A FU*CKING TON!

Hook Monte up with Carol Meryl...then slip them a few ludes, make a video tape to blackmail them,and casually take everything...just like in the good ole days....

JR



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2008-02-23 03:47 by stone-relics.

WTF times 100 ! I want some of what you're smokin'. Of course it's a 50/50 chance you space brain vagabond.

I'd pull both my pistols, tell Monte to "Stand and Deliver! Or I'll pull my rapier and send you to The Devil! There's whiskey in the jar o."

Yes, but once one of the boxes is eliminated and you have the choice of re-picking...your odds are now 50 / 50. right?

schillid is just trying to make our brains itch - probably got some popcorn stuck in his craw, poor thing.
here schillid, let me stroke your forehead - the odds (obviously) increase if we can choose to *keep* two boxes,
but as long as we're only allowed one, Schrödinger's cat applies.

Quote
rocks off
Yes, but once one of the boxes is eliminated and you have the choice of re-picking...your odds are now 50 / 50. right?

Wrong. If you don't believe me, maybe you'll believe Dr. Math.

Suppose Monte shows you 100 boxes instead of three. One box contains the prize, and your choice would obviously have 1 in 100 chance of being correct.

Monte then opens 98 "loser" boxes, one at a time. He leaves two boxes unopened... the box you chose and one mystery box. Do you think it's now 50 / 50? It isn't. In this case, you'd probably realize that the box you picked STILL has the 1/100 chance, and that other unopened box has a much higher probability (99% in this case) of containing the prize.

The correct answer is counter-intuitive when you reduce the "sample space" to 3... In the future, I'll keep these thoughts and posts on IOMG.org ("It's Only Math Geeks" ).


From Wikipedia:
"there is only one other unopened door, the probability that this door conceals the car must be 2/3. It is therefore to the contestant's advantage ... to switch"



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 2008-02-24 07:53 by schillid.

Quote
schillid

Quote
rocks off
Yes, but once one of the boxes is eliminated and you have the choice of re-picking...your odds are now 50 / 50. right?

Wrong.

Suppose Monte shows you 100 boxes instead of three. One box contains the prize, and your choice would obviously have 1 in 100 chance of being correct.

Monte then opens 98 "loser" boxes, one at a time. He leaves two boxes unopened... the box you chose and one mystery box. Do you think it's now 50 / 50? It isn't. The box you picked STILL has 1/100 chance, and that other unopened box has a 99% chance of containing the prize.

Schillid, so someone explained this "logic" to you once, which you still believe? Shame on them!

WTF!

Well the odds are now 50/50.

Similar to the following....if I bet a friend $10 on one coin flip and I got to make the call. If without the friend seeing I flipped the coin until it turned heads 3 times in a row, then went to the friend and said it will be tails for our one flip. The odds should be better that it won't turn heads a fourth time (which only I know) but in reality it is still just 50/50 and I have no advantage.

Not sure if that makes sense but sure is pointless.

id probably choose the other boxes