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Sici

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MisterDDDD
"In Italy, 9.5% of the people who have tested positive for the virus have succumbed to COVID-19,
The biggest reason for the difference, infectious disease experts say, is Germany’s work in the early days of its outbreak to track, test and contain infection clusters.

Right,
in Italy the test is only for those who arrive at the hospital, for that the percentage is high
Sici

That rather reminds me of early political polling and how it went majorly wrong in an early presidential election in the USA.

One election they got it very very wrong. When the pollsters analysed their own methods they realised that they were basing the statistics on answers given in a telephone poll. So that meant that only people who, in those days, had a phone were polled, and that basically ruled out all of the poorer people.

So the results were set up to be skewed by the polling method.

In much the same way as reported above in Italy only those arriving in hospital are tested. In Australia at the moment, you're only tested if you've been in contact with a known case or have been abroad recently. That automatically rules out community infections being picked up quickly.

Captain Corella

Finland death toll now 3.

13 deaths reported in Switzerland today.
The country now has the highest number of reported cases per population. Even higher than Italy or Spain.

The US has the potential to become the new coronavirus epicenter — as the country is seeing a “very large acceleration” in infections, a World Health Organization official warned Tuesday.

US has potential to become new coronavirus epicenter: WHO (New York Post)

Accumulated number of deaths from the coronavirus in USA:

24-mar : 780 - 1.41%
23-mar : 553 - 1.34%
22-mar : 413 - 1.37%

This is a multiplication factor of 2.6 in three days, equivalent to 9 times per week.

Total Coronavirus Deaths in the United States (Worldometers)

Has Donald Trump had enough of Anthony Fauci? (CNN)

Trump's hope for an Easter reopening clashes with coronavirus reality (CNN)

Trump wants U.S. “opened up” by Easter, as fleeing New Yorkers are urged to self-quarantine. (New York Times)

Bjornulf



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-25 12:01 by bv.

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Chris Fountain
I just purchased 10k in Disney Stock and will be looking for deals tomorrow. This is just another media frenzied event that does not support anyone other than the reporter itself.

Go out run, exercise - we all go back to work in a week or two. Some bank stocks may be on the horizon

Good luck with your investment.

Still, I wonder, did you see the past three days coronavirus death numbers from USA?

24-mar : 780 - 1.41%
23-mar : 553 - 1.34%
22-mar : 413 - 1.37%

This number will grow by nine times every week, until all US states close down completely, as adviced by WHO.

Bjornulf

New York Times:

President Trump needs to call for a two-week shelter-in-place order, now, as part of a coherent national strategy for the coronavirus to protect Americans and their livelihoods.

As the president’s own health advisers warn, the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is yet to come. The nation’s slow and spotty response has allowed the virus to spread to every state. Modeling by researchers at the Imperial College London indicates that upward of two million lives could be lost to the pandemic unless America somehow manages to “flatten the curve.”

Coronavirus Is Advancing. All Americans Need to Shelter in Place.

Bjornulf



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-25 12:38 by bv.

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MisterDDDD
Why Germany’s coronavirus death rate is so much lower than other countries’ rates

"In Italy, 9.5% of the people who have tested positive for the virus have succumbed to COVID-19, according to data compiled at the Johns Hopkins University. In France, the rate is 4.3%. But in Germany, it’s 0.4%.

The biggest reason for the difference, infectious disease experts say, is Germany’s work in the early days of its outbreak to track, test and contain infection clusters. That means Germany has a truer picture of the size of its outbreak than places that test only the obviously symptomatic, most seriously ill or highest-risk patients."
[www.seattletimes.com]

It sounds reasonable and might very well be true.

Tough when I look at our country, we have about 1500 cases and 3 dearts so far - people aged 71 - 95 years, all three with other serious issues. Even the pannic spreading media admit that the coronavirus might not have been the cause of their deaths.

Our country has had very poor testing so far. I have no idea where we stand between Germany and Italy, but tons of people want to be testet and they are not, those who are wait many days for results. Yet the death rate is extrelemy low (or has been so far).

Our country is one of those with hardest rules from the very beginning, the whole country has been in quarantine for 10 days now. It very often looks like what our pro-Russian leaders are mainly doing is testing, how people would react. Three days ago our "leader" announced, that the borders might be closed for another 2 years, which I think is totally outrageous to say now, when we are about 2 weeks into this and nobody knows what it is and where it is going to lead us. It looks like they are testing how people would react if they decided for us to go back 30 years...and The Wall would be built again... Which I see as a possible scenario unfortunately. Many many people on the internet shout that it should have always been that way.

I wonder how is the situation in Sweden? If I get it correcly (which I maybe don't), I think the restrictions are not very hard and judging purely from the statistics it looks, like the country is doing pretty mus as well / bad as any other country with hard restrictions. Of course, we are only very short time into this and time will tell.

But back to Italy. I still feel like there might be something into that article I posted a few days ago about flu epidemics in Italy, which says, that "Italy showed a higher influenza attributable excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly." I know, it is a long shot to assume that the same applies for the coronavirus, but it is true, that the death rate differs quite dramatiacly in different countries, Italy being the most obviouse case. I don't know. I guess we will know more in the future.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-25 13:10 by Happy24.

Prince Chatles has tested positive.

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Happy24


Tough when I look at our country, we have about 1500 cases and 3 dearts so far - people aged 71 - 95 years, all three with other serious issues. Even the pannic spreading media admit that the coronavirus might not have been the cause of their deaths.

Our country has had very poor testing so far. I have no idea where we stand between Germany and Italy, but tons of people want to be testet and they are not, those who are wait many days for results. Yet the death rate is extrelemy low (or has been so far).

Our country is one of those with hardest rules from the very beginning, the whole country has been in quarantine for 10 days now. It very often looks like what our pro-Russian leaders are mainly doing is testing, how people would react. Three days ago our "leader" announced, that the borders might be closed for another 2 years, which I think is totally outrageous to say now, when we are about 2 weeks into this and nobody knows what it is and where it is going to lead us. It looks like they are testing how people would react if they decided for us to go back 30 years...and The Wall would be built again... Which I see as a possible scenario unfortunately. Many many people on the internet shout that it should have always been thet way.

I wonder how is the situation in Sweden? If I get it correcly (which I maybe don't), I think the restrictions are not very hard and judging purely from the statistics it looks, like the country is doing pretty mus as well / bad as any other country with hard restrictions. Of course, we are only very short time into this and time will tell.

But back to Italy. I still feel like there might be something into that article I posted a few days ago about flu epidemics in Italy, which says, that "Italy showed a higher influenza attributable excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly." I know, it is a long shot to assume that the same applies for the coronavirus, but it is true, that the death rate differs quite dramatiacly in different countries, Italy being the most obviouse case. I don't know. I guess we will know more in the future.

Sorry, but what is the country you talking about? I mean, yours.

In regard to Sweden, that is an interesting case. They took a different approach altogether straight from the beginning and have a rather loose restriction policy still (Finland took the same approach initially, but quickly changed the policy). They seem to rely on their own health experts there, which seem assume that the virus will spread and die naturally as the immunity of people increases. And they also seem to rely on the common sense of their citizens for doing the right thing without a strong state intervention/obligitation. And like you noted, there hasn't been any dramatic difference to any country with a stronger lockdown policy. It looks like that they are playing with a fire, but see what happens.

- Doxa



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-25 13:06 by Doxa.

Doxa, I am from The Czech Republic. Our prime minister is Slovakian and he is a former STB agent (STB was the Czechoslovakian version of the Russian KGB ). I think we are the only county in the World, where something like this is possible. The whole republic has very much became his private business and means how to get EU money.

[en.wikipedia.org]

Since we are on The Rolling Stones forum - I feel very sad that the reason I might not see The Stones any more might well be that I won't be allowed to. Again.



Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-25 13:54 by Happy24.

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SomeTorontoGirl
Prince Chatles has tested positive.

[www.bbc.com]

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DandelionPowderman
Three people at the office infected now.

I'm still not feeling any symptoms, luckily. The chemo cure I did in october wiped away all the vaccines I've taken through life, so I'm waiting for a pneumonia vaccine. It helps a bit if I get pnemonia, but not for the coronavirus per se.

One day left of the max incubation period. Fingers crossed

Fingers crossed DP.
Stay safe.

God bless you all fellows. Stay safe. bv, hope you'll just as well keep fine.

dead.flowers

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DandelionPowderman
Three people at the office infected now.

I'm still not feeling any symptoms, luckily. The chemo cure I did in october wiped away all the vaccines I've taken through life, so I'm waiting for a pneumonia vaccine. It helps a bit if I get pnemonia, but not for the coronavirus per se.

One day left of the max incubation period. Fingers crossed

Man, I am so sorry to read that! I only know you from the IORR band gigs photos and there you surely look like an absolutely healthy strong guy. That shows how our estimates might be wrong. I wish the best of luck to you. Try to be as optimistic and possitive as possible, you will get through this!

Stay strong Bard all the best.

Nate

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crholmstrom

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SomeTorontoGirl
Prince Chatles has tested positive.

[www.bbc.com]

.



Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-25 14:45 by EddieByword.

Damn you, The Guardian, not is this all horrible by all accounts an sich, but you needed to remind us Stones fans of this embarrassing point....

But for the absence of a sea of “Keep America Great Again” hats and Rolling Stones soundtrack, Donald Trump’s coronavirus press briefings at the White House are, critics say, increasingly resembling his 2020 re-election campaign rallies.

- Doxa

If you go out running or if you are taking a stroll you do not put anybody in danger, if you keep a distance; you can strengthen your immune system that way. This is a serious situation, which needs to be handled in a well balanced way: If you lock up everybody, the numbers of heart attacks, strokes and suicides will increase rapidly and kill many people. Certain restrictions are sensible, but hysteria is not helpful.

I can't imagine living in NYC right now, they can't get out of their own way plus some have not heeded the Governor's and Fed warnings. Thinking that you can escape by flying away to FL or NC when the odds are better than every other state you could pass the virus is thoughtless. Maybe they should shut New York's airports for 2 weeks also.

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windmelody
If you go out running or if you are taking a stroll you do not put anybody in danger, if you keep a distance; you can strengthen your immune system that way. This is a serious situation, which needs to be handled in a well balanced way: If you lock up everybody, the numbers of heart attacks, strokes and suicides will increase rapidly and kill many people. Certain restrictions are sensible, but hysteria is not helpful.

Agreed. I live in a rural area and it's good to go for a run to test yourself and physically and mentally stay stronger. I'm no saint, 14 of us went on a golf trip to Las Vegas the week of 3/2. To this date no one has taken ill so we dodged a bullet, none of us have underlying conditions.

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Maindefender

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windmelody
If you go out running or if you are taking a stroll you do not put anybody in danger, if you keep a distance; you can strengthen your immune system that way. This is a serious situation, which needs to be handled in a well balanced way: If you lock up everybody, the numbers of heart attacks, strokes and suicides will increase rapidly and kill many people. Certain restrictions are sensible, but hysteria is not helpful.

Agreed. I live in a rural area and it's good to go for a run to test yourself and physically and mentally stay stronger. I'm no saint, 14 of us went on a golf trip to Las Vegas the week of 3/2. To this date no one has taken ill so we dodged a bullet, none of us have underlying conditions.

All of you can be infected without feeling a thing. But if it's passed on the next infected may get symptoms. That is scary.

But most likely you did "dodge that bullet".

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Maindefender

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windmelody
If you go out running or if you are taking a stroll you do not put anybody in danger, if you keep a distance; you can strengthen your immune system that way. This is a serious situation, which needs to be handled in a well balanced way: If you lock up everybody, the numbers of heart attacks, strokes and suicides will increase rapidly and kill many people. Certain restrictions are sensible, but hysteria is not helpful.

Agreed. I live in a rural area and it's good to go for a run to test yourself and physically and mentally stay stronger. I'm no saint, 14 of us went on a golf trip to Las Vegas the week of 3/2. To this date no one has taken ill so we dodged a bullet, none of us have underlying conditions.

I have friends that have trips booked to England in April, and Italy in June. They are quietly hoping this whole thing 'blows' over in a couple of weeks. It's completely delusional unfortunately.

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Maindefender

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windmelody
If you go out running or if you are taking a stroll you do not put anybody in danger, if you keep a distance; you can strengthen your immune system that way. This is a serious situation, which needs to be handled in a well balanced way: If you lock up everybody, the numbers of heart attacks, strokes and suicides will increase rapidly and kill many people. Certain restrictions are sensible, but hysteria is not helpful.

Agreed. I live in a rural area and it's good to go for a run to test yourself and physically and mentally stay stronger. I'm no saint, 14 of us went on a golf trip to Las Vegas the week of 3/2. To this date no one has taken ill so we dodged a bullet, none of us have underlying conditions.

In big cities, all those activities are strictly forbidden. Yoy are taking a stroll: you touch the lift button, you touch the main entrance door of your building, you meet a neighbour, or two, or four, etc....
And once again several contagious chains get started. Over and over.
From Spain I can tell you: the sooner a city get shutdown, the better for the citizens.
Stay home. Trust me.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-25 15:17 by spain73.

Gates is right, as are the experts who have put forth this same timeline.
We need a 6-10 week complete shutdown.

Bill Gates says the US missed its chance to avoid coronavirus shutdown and businesses should stay closed

"It’s very tough to say to people, ‘Hey, keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner. We want you to keep spending because there’s maybe a politician who thinks [gross domestic product] GDP growth is what really counts,’” Gates said, adding that a shutdown may need to remain in place for six to 10 weeks.

“In terms of testing, we’re still not creating that capacity and applying it to people in need,” Gates said. “The testing thing has got to be organized, has got to be prioritized. That is super, super urgent.”

[www.cnbc.com]

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treaclefingers

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CaptainCorella

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treaclefingers
OK, in a day of already bad news I'd like to point out a pretty negative trending stat of late, using [www.worldometers.info] as my source, which has been pretty good and usually quite uptodate.

[snip]

The rest of the world right now, aside from China, has 35000 that have recovered and 15610 deaths. So out of a total of just over 50000 outcomes, the death rate is 31%.
It’s astronomical and worse, it is getting higher every day.
Maybe there are explanations for that, like people that die, die sooner than people get completely resolved.
But I didn’t see that happening in China.

The Italian example right now has a death rate of 45% of outcomes. It’s eye watering. Even if EVERY SINGLE OTHER CASE in Italy resolved with a positive outcome right now (highly unlikely) you’d have a death rate of 9.9%. That is best case scenario. That is the SARS death rate, 10%, only it didn’t spread as quickly.

These are the numbers, I’m just doing some simple division, and anyone can check this for themselves.

The only thing that could bring these death rates down, is maybe way way more people have it already and are just not being counted, and I mean in Italy for example, by 10 fold. So 690000 cases instead of 69000 officially showing, so a death rate of 4.5%

Anyway, I just needed to get that out. Most people are taking this seriously but it’s too bad we have a few just not quite able to get it.

This is just so wrong it hurts. It's alarming and irresponsible.

If you go to the John Hopkins University site [www.arcgis.com] and look at the figures presented there you can get a good idea of what's going on.

It's important to look at the numbers carefully.

If you look at China, you'll see that there's a small difference between the total number of cases reported (on the one hand) and the sum of the total deaths and total recovered (on the other hand). That's because the more recent 5,000 or so have not been sorted out. Working with the numbers there you get a death rate of about 4.2%. Dreadful, but not the dangerously misleading figures quoted above. But, it's a good estimate because the China-phase seems to be over.

But if you look at, say, the Australia figures you'll see that because of the 'early' (my term) stage of the epidemic there have only been 8 deaths so far and 119 reported recoveries. So the apparent death rate is very low indeed - 0.3%. And that's skewed because there are so many cases that are still 'active', so a sensible estimate cannot be made.

The figures for Italy do not bear out the 45% claim above. There have been 69,176 cases and so far 6,820 deaths. That's a dreadful 10% rate. Even if you assume that every single one of the cases listed as 'Serious/Critical' (3,393) on [www.worldometers.info] results in death, that would bring the casualty figure up to 14%.

It's worth pointing out that the Italian figures are going to be atypical due to the average age of the population, plus a very strong local cultural resistance to seeking medical help ... until it's almost too late.

Countries with good 21st century public health systems will fare far better than those with an essentially private health system.

I think we've said exactly the same thing, and if you reread what I've said, you would understand that. All I've done is crunch the numbers as presented. The 45% 'claim' for Italy is the current number amongst outcomes. I never stated this is what I believe will be the ultimate number, only the number that is currently being presented, over a fairly large sampling size. I also extrapolated from that that likely 10x the number are actually infected, which then brings us closer to the China rate.

I get that you didn't read what I had originally written entirely, perhaps a little to long for you, but please don't quote excerpts and claim I have done something wrong, when in fact you just didn't understand because you didn't read everything.

We've even come to more or less the same conclusion...the only real point I was making was the trend was on a horrible course at the moment. And that trend was the first thing I quoted which was a 6% deathrate amongst overall outcomes, to 15% currently.

That is the stat that is the most current death rate amongst overall outcomes. If the true deathrate is say 4% overall, that means that the number of cases worldwide is being underestimated by a factor of 4. There are probably 4x as many cases out there undiagnosed. That makes sense because we know not everyone gets a test.

I don't think everyone's accounting for death's consistently.

I'll use the "drunk driving" analogy. The U.S. counts a drunk driving death as any accident where anyone involved had any alcohol in their system, not necessarily over the legal limit and not necessarily the person who caused the accident. It inflates the numbers to make a point.

I think the same thing may be going on to some extent with coronavirus deaths. If someone dies who has it, it's chalked up to the virus, but maybe that's not necessarily the cause. Maybe it is, I don't know, I'm no expert in this area.

I am still working but a 4 to 6 week shut down would be nice. Get things done around the house Get the garden planted. Lots of beer drinking and stones down at my creek. I have mixed emotions about it

I never had a full month off. Ever !

Beware of both false pesimism, but certainly also of false optimism. The death rate in Italy went down a few days ago, so some experts suggested that the peak near by, but yesterday it skyrocketed again!!! Not to mention Spain. Even in the NL there was an "unexpected" increase in fatalities.

Jackson Browne Tests Positive for Coronavirus

[www.rollingstone.com]

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MisterDDDD
An actual billionaire that understands science and facts.
He's estimating the length of shutdown needed at six to ten weeks, provided there's an increase of testing etc.


Bill Gates says the US missed its chance to avoid coronavirus shutdown and businesses should stay closed

“The U.S. is past this opportunity to control (COVID-19) without shutdown,” Gates said during a TED Connects program broadcast online.
“We did not act fast enough to have an ability to avoid the shutdown.”

“It’s January when everybody should’ve been on notice,” Gates added. The virus was first discovered in December in China."
[www.cnbc.com]

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.....Talk is Cheap.

All I want to hear from the mega-rich is how much money they are giving to research, how many people they are financially supporting during the shut-down and/or how they are financing the production of more respirators, masks and other critical supplies.

Sean Penn was on the news saying how the military needs to intervene.

blah, blah, blah...What I need is do-nothing Hollywood ToolBags telling us what to do....give me a break.

Take a look at Haiti if you want to see a place that Sean Penn "helped"...

Dear Hollywood, Pro Sports, Rock Stars and MegaRich Corporate Hacks - Close your mouths until you open your wallets.

....if you can't handle the latter, then just do the former.

That being said....Doctors without Borders is an outstanding charity, if anyone is interested.

Probably some of these mega rich people have made financial donations but they don’t advertise it.

Nate