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skytrench

It's also speculative to claim vaccinated older people are getting infected from the unvaccinated, we don't really know, since Covid status/testing is pretty much something the unvaccinated are obliged to do.

Not really. There are more non-vaccinated people who are infected. If you assume only infected people are spreading Covid (can we agree to that). If there are 100 people and half the people are vaccinated, there will be a higher probability that one of the 50 unvaccinated people is infected than one of the vaccinated people. That means, all other things being equal, an unvaccinated person would be spreading the virus.

It is a different analysis if you will get infected at a higher rate sitting next to a contagious vaccinated versus unvaccinated person.

Can we agree there are more unvaccinated people contagious with Covid than unvaccinated? If we agree on that, how can we not agree with my premise.

>For many, it's a very simple choice. If you need a paycheck to survive, you'll >get vaccinated. It really isn't much more complex than that.

In that context, there really is no choice...



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021-11-20 23:28 by skytrench.

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daspyknows
There are more non-vaccinated people who are infected.

With many now vaccinated, there could be more infected among the vaccinated.

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daspyknows
If you assume only infected people are spreading Covid (can we agree to that). If there are 100 people and half the people are vaccinated, there will be a higher probability that one of the 50 unvaccinated people is infected than one of the vaccinated people. That means, all other things being equal, an unvaccinated person would be spreading the virus.

I agree with your example, in reality there might be a 75-25 ratio between the two groups and the same conclusion cannot be made.

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daspyknows
It is a different analysis if you will get infected at a higher rate sitting next to a contagious vaccinated versus unvaccinated person.

Can we agree there are more unvaccinated people contagious with Covid than unvaccinated? If we agree on that, how can we not agree with my premise.

The immunity status of people is a moving target, with vaccinations, infections, and waning immunity pulling at each other. It seems logical that, if the same size, the unvaccinated group is more contagious, but are we safer in the presence of untested vaccinated persons? Do we risk they are feeling fine, but have contagious levels of virus?

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skytrench

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daspyknows
There are more non-vaccinated people who are infected.

With many now vaccinated, there could be more infected among the vaccinated.

Proof? I seriously doubt it.

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daspyknows
If you assume only infected people are spreading Covid (can we agree to that).

If there are 100 people and half the people are vaccinated, there will be a higher probability that one of the 50 unvaccinated people is infected than one of the vaccinated people. That means, all other things being equal, an unvaccinated person would be spreading the virus.

I agree with your example, in reality there might be a 75-25 ratio between the two groups and the same conclusion cannot be made.

I disagree with a 3 to 1 vaccination to unvaccinated ratio. At 10 to 1 I would start to think it would be remotely possible depending on the population.

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daspyknows
It is a different analysis if you will get infected at a higher rate sitting next to a contagious vaccinated versus unvaccinated person.

Can we agree there are more unvaccinated people contagious with Covid than unvaccinated? If we agree on that, how can we not agree with my premise.

The immunity status of people is a moving target, with vaccinations, infections, and waning immunity pulling at each other. It seems logical that, if the same size, the unvaccinated group is more contagious, but are we safer in the presence of untested vaccinated persons? Do we risk they are feeling fine, but have contagious levels of virus?

You seem to believe the vaccine is largely ineffective. I personally disagree
and in fact had a friend in a study of those vaccinated and have had Covid and the results are telling. We probably caught Covid together and she is a scientist who works in medical research.

[www.npr.org]

She told me that 100% of those in the study showed this level of immunity. This study shows vaccination works and someone who I know and trust was a part of it.

I am also an advocate of more testing. Are you vaccinated?

Just hearing on the news about riots in Rotterdam over Covid retrictions with police firing on people...terrible...

I imagine it will be much worse in Austria when (if) they decide to implement required vaccines for everyone....

From the BBC:

Rotterdam police clash with rioters as Covid protest turns violent

> RIOTS

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Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021-11-21 02:25 by Hairball.

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Hairball
Just hearing on the news about riots in Rotterdam over Covid retrictions with police firing on people...terrible...

The police had to shoot for their lives. Those riots are caused by hooligans being there just to plunder shops, demolishing cars, attacking ambulance people, blind aggression etc blowing it for people that just wanted to make a peaceful statement.

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NICOS

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bv
The virus is not smart at all. There is 0% intelligence in a virus. The virus is moving on and mutating because some sick people manage to go out and meet many other people. The longer you are sick, the more mutants your body get.

If everybody stayed at home for one or two months, the virus would go away, but that would never happen in the western world, where some do have the opinion that personal freedom is more important than the health of other people.

If the virus was dumb it wouldn't mutate ....but to survive it mutates and that is smart.

If everybody stayed at home for one or two months,

Answer is utopia in the world of globalization...........in 1910 it would work without staying home as 9,9999999 % of the people didn't travel more then 5 miles from there home

Plus it's kind of impossible in the current age of needing electricity.

Everything relies on it and power plants don't run themselves.

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TheflyingDutchman

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Hairball
Just hearing on the news about riots in Rotterdam over Covid retrictions with police firing on people...terrible...

The police had to shoot for their lives. Those riots are caused by hooligans being there just to plunder shops, demolishing cars, attacking ambulance people, blind aggression etc blowing it for people that just wanted to make a peaceful statement.

All I said was it is terrible and my comment wasn't intended as pro-police or anti-police....
When it all results in rioting, violence, mayhem, and shooting, it's terrible no matter who the instigators or culprits are.

Also, you edited out the second part of my post which was the main point I was making in the first place:

"I imagine it will be much worse in Austria when (if) they decide to implement required vaccines for everyone...."

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Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021-11-21 20:27 by Hairball.

Meanwhile in the US:

Hospitalizations rising among fully vaccinated in U.S., Fauci says
"What we’re starting to see now is an uptick in hospitalizations among people who’ve been vaccinated but not boosted."

Covid19

As cases of Covid-19 rise throughout the U.S., health officials warn that an increasing number of fully vaccinated people are being hospitalized or going to the emergency room. The concern about waning immunity against severe Covid infection comes as the Food and Drug Administration is expected to authorize a Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine booster shot for all adults 18 and older. “What we’re starting to see now is an uptick in hospitalizations among people who’ve been vaccinated but not boosted,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Disease, said Tuesday in an interview. “It’s a significant proportion, but not the majority by any means.”

On Wednesday, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, reported a decline in vaccine effectiveness among the elderly and residents of long-term care facilities, many of whom were the first to be eligible to be vaccinated last winter. “Although the highest risk are those people who are unvaccinated, we are seeing an increase in emergency department visits among adults 65 and older, which are now again higher than they are for younger age groups,” Walensky said Wednesday at a White House Covid briefing. Walensky also pointed to new data on long-term care facilities from the agency's National Healthcare Safety Network comparing rates of Covid disease between people who are vaccinated with two doses and those who have received extra doses. “The rate of disease is markedly lower for those who received their booster shot, demonstrating our boosters are working,” she said.

Fauci and Walensky stressed that the majority of hospitalizations and deaths are still among unvaccinated people in the U.S. "Studies show that those who are unvaccinated continue to be more likely to be infected, more likely to be in the hospital and more likely to have severe complications from Covid-19," Walensky said at the briefing. The current seven-day rate of hospital admissions is about 5,300 per day, according to the CDC, and about 1,000 people in the U.S. are dying from Covid every day. Still, it’s not clear how many breakthrough hospitalizations there are. Although the CDC has been tracking the rate of hospitalizations among fully vaccinated people, its website shows data only through Aug. 28. According to the latest data from the CDC, an unvaccinated person is at 11 times greater risk of dying from Covid than a vaccinated person. The CDC didn’t respond to a request for new numbers. At least 31 million people have received extra doses of a Pfizer, Moderna or Johnson & Johnson vaccine, according to the CDC.

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Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......

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Hairball

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TheflyingDutchman

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Hairball
Just hearing on the news about riots in Rotterdam over Covid retrictions with police firing on people...terrible...

The police had to shoot for their lives. Those riots are caused by hooligans being there just to plunder shops, demolishing cars, attacking ambulance people, blind aggression etc blowing it for people that just wanted to make a peaceful statement.

All I said was it is terrible and my comment wasn't intended as pro-police or anti-police....
When it all results in rioting, violence, mayhem, and shooting, it's terrible no matter who the instigators or culprits are.

Also, you edited out the second part of my post which was the main point I was making in the first place:

"I imagine it will be much worse in Austria when (if) they decide to implement required vaccines for everyone...."

I just wanted to point out my country "highlight". Of course I understand that you don't blame the police/ point out the sadness of the entire situation.

Lockdown in Austria till 13th December.

In Holland more than 50% of the people just ignore the recommended basic rules, hence rapid rising covid-cases.

Lockdown in Slovakia.

The US (or parts of the US) is probably heading in the same direction with waves of high infection rates and ultimately lockdowns and new mandates.
Thanksgiving this weekend with millions of people traveling, and large numbers of people having family gatherings...followed by Christmas next month with the same scenarios.
Meanwhile, seems like deja vu all over again when I see stories like this which could be nothing to worry about, or it could be something terrible:

From the Guardian:

Scientists warn of new Covid variant with high number of mutations

The B.1.1.529 variant was first spotted in Botswana and six cases have been found in South Africa

Covid19

Scientists have said a new Covid variant that carries an “extremely high number” of mutations may drive further waves of disease by evading the body’s defences. Only 10 cases in three countries have been confirmed by genomic sequencing, but the variant has sparked serious concern among some researchers because a number of the mutations may help the virus evade immunity. The B.1.1.529 variant has 32 mutations in the spike protein, the part of the virus that most vaccines use to prime the immune system against Covid. Mutations in the spike protein can affect the virus’s ability to infect cells and spread, but also make it harder for immune cells to attack the pathogen. The variant was first spotted in Botswana, where three cases have now been sequenced. Six more have been confirmed in South Africa, and one in Hong Kong in a traveller returning from South Africa.

Dr Tom Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College London, posted details of the new variant on a genome-sharing website, noting that the “incredibly high amount of spike mutations suggest this could be of real concern”. In a series of tweets, Peacock said it “very, very much should be monitored due to that horrific spike profile”, but added that it may turn out to be an “odd cluster” that is not very transmissible. “I hope that’s the case,” he wrote. Dr Meera Chand, the Covid-19 incident director at the UK Health Security Agency, said that in partnership with scientific bodies around the globe, the agency was constantly monitoring the status of Sars-CoV-2 variants as they emerge and develop worldwide. “As it is in the nature of viruses to mutate often and at random, it is not unusual for small numbers of cases to arise featuring new sets of mutations. Any variants showing evidence of spread are rapidly assessed,” she said.

The first cases of the variant were collected in Botswana on 11 November, and the earliest in South Africa was recorded three days later. The case found in Hong Kong was a 36-year-old man who had a negative PCR test before flying from Hong Kong to South Africa, where he stayed from 22 October to 11 November. He tested negative on his return to Hong Kong, but tested positive on 13 November while in quarantine. England no longer has a red list to impose restrictions on travellers arriving from abroad. People who are not fully vaccinated must test negative before flying and arrange two PCR tests on arrival. Those who are fully vaccinated need to have a Covid test within two days of landing.

Scientists will be watching the new variant for any sign that it is gaining momentum and spreading more widely. Some virologists in South Africa are already concerned, particularly given the recent rise in cases in Gauteng, an urban area containing Pretoria and Johannesburg, where B.1.1.529 cases have been detected. Ravi Gupta, a professor of clinical microbiology at Cambridge University, said work in his lab found that two of the mutations on B.1.1.529 increased infectivity and reduced antibody recognition. “It does certainly look a significant concern based on the mutations present,” he said. “However, a key property of the virus that is unknown is its infectiousness, as that is what appears to have primarily driven the Delta variant. Immune escape is only part of the picture of what may happen.” Prof Francois Balloux, the director of the UCL Genetics Institute, said the large number of mutations in the variant apparently accumulated in a “single burst”, suggesting it may have evolved during a chronic infection in a person with a weakened immune system, possibly an untreated HIV/Aids patient. “I would definitely expect it to be poorly recognised by neutralising antibodies relative to Alpha or Delta,” he said. “It is difficult to predict how transmissible it may be at this stage. For the time being it should be closely monitored and analysed, but there is no reason to get overly concerned unless it starts going up in frequency in the near future.”

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Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......

"The variant was first spotted in Botswana, where three cases have now been sequenced. Six more have been confirmed in South Africa, and one in Hong Kong in a traveller returning from South Africa."

This right there is the reason why basically all of our struggling will remain largely pointless. I still remember, back when we "knew nothing" in january 2020, talking to my aunt about the situation in China and how unbelievably stupid it was to fly those expats out of the locked down area. Now we got this whole testing regime set up and sure, most active cases do get picked up but it still only needs one person, travelling internationally, testing negative, to get a fresh new straing rolling.

Which is to say we learned a lot, more than we probably ever needed to know, it still amounts to nothing

UK suspends flights to six African countries as new Covid variant raises alarms

Covid19

The United Kingdom is temporarily suspending flights from six countries as a new Covid variant with more than 30 mutations spreads in South Africa.

Sajid Javid, the U.K.’s secretary of state for health and social care, made the announcement hours after the World Health Organization gave a briefing on the new variant. The organization called for a special meeting on Friday to further study the variant, which has been detected in small numbers in South Africa. “More data is needed but we’re taking precautions now. From noon tomorrow six African countries will be added to the red list, flights will be temporarily banned, and UK travellers must quarantine,” Javid wrote on Twitter. In addition to South Africa, the countries of Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Zimbabwe and Botswana are included in the new restrictions, according to a statement issued by the U.K.’s health, transport and health security agencies.

The WHO is holding a special meeting Friday to discuss what the new variant may mean for vaccines and treatments, officials said Thursday. The variant, called B.1.1.529, has been detected in South Africa in small numbers, according to the WHO. The variant has spread rapidly through the Gauteng province, which contains the country’s largest city of Johannesburg. The variant has also been detected in Botswana and Hong Kong, South Africa Minister of Health Joe Phaahla said during the briefing. “We don’t know very much about this yet. What we do know is that this variant has a large number of mutations. And the concern is that when you have so many mutations, it can have an impact on how the virus behaves,” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical lead on Covid-19, said in a Q&A that was livestreamed on the organization’s social media channels.

The newly detected variant arrives as infection levels remain high in countries across the world. In Europe, Austria and Italy announced new restrictions in recent days aimed at slowing the spread of the virus. South African scientists have detected more than 30 mutations in the new variant, raising concern that it could possibly better evade the antibody protection created by vaccines and prior infections. Countries have used restrictions on flights or total travel as a tool to slow the spread of Covid since the early days of the pandemic. The U.S. just lifted its travel ban from 33 countries, including the U.K., earlier this month.

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Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......

It has minimal impact suspending direct flights as people will just fly back via the Middle East and it could be argued that direct flights are safer as there is potential for people to spread the virus whilst transferring.

Nate

If we'd learned anything, we wouldn't let anyone fly at all. People test negative but carry the infection anyhow. Remember f*n Mallorca in the summer? I'm sure everyone is able to provide great reasons why international travel is absolutely vital. Yawn

First case of the new mutation "Ny" found in Belgium. It's spreading fast.

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Nikkei
If we'd learned anything, we wouldn't let anyone fly at all. People test negative but carry the infection anyhow. Remember f*n Mallorca in the summer? I'm sure everyone is able to provide great reasons why international travel is absolutely vital. Yawn

Unless you reside on a desert island on your own you will not stop covid from entering.Even if you stop all passenger flights in and out of a country you still have to have cargo flights in and out.If you want to stay home and live in a hazmat suit feel free to do so but many people have friends and family around the world they want to see.

Nate

Say Nyet to the vax get Nu. Simple cause and effect. Are the Darwin award winners going to spin the chamber on this one?

Omicron is the new name



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021-11-26 20:06 by daspyknows.

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Nate

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Nikkei
If we'd learned anything, we wouldn't let anyone fly at all. People test negative but carry the infection anyhow. Remember f*n Mallorca in the summer? I'm sure everyone is able to provide great reasons why international travel is absolutely vital. Yawn

Unless you reside on a desert island on your own you will not stop covid from entering.Even if you stop all passenger flights in and out of a country you still have to have cargo flights in and out.If you want to stay home and live in a hazmat suit feel free to do so but many people have friends and family around the world they want to see.

Nate

Yes my point is aimed at how hypocritical this whole halfassed approach has become. My reasons for scolding international flight travel and the BS reasons people justify it with are still from before covid times



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021-11-26 17:59 by Nikkei.

From the Associated Press:

World races to contain new COVID threat, the omicron variant

Covid19

BRUSSELS (AP) — Nearly two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, the world raced Friday to contain a new coronavirus variant potentially more dangerous than the one that has fueled relentless waves of infection on every continent.A World Health Organization panel named the variant “omicron” and classified it as a highly transmissible virus of concern, the same category that includes the predominant delta variant, which is still a scourge driving higher cases of sickness and death in Europe and parts of the United States. “It seems to spread rapidly,” President Joe Biden said of the new variant, only a day after celebrating the resumption of Thanksgiving gatherings for millions of American families and the sense that normal life was coming back at least for the vaccinated. In announcing new travel restrictions, he told reporters, “I’ve decided that we’re going to be cautious.”

Omicron’s actual risks are not understood. But early evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection compared with other highly transmissible variants, the WHO said. That means people who contracted COVID-19 and recovered could be subject to catching it again. It could take weeks to know if current vaccines are less effective against it. In response to the variant’s discovery in southern Africa, the United States, Canada, Russia and a host of other countries joined the European Union in restricting travel for visitors from southern Africa, where the variant brought on a fresh surge of infections. The White House said the U.S. will restrict travel from South Africa and seven other countries in the region beginning Monday. Biden said that means “no travel” to or from the designated countries except for returning U.S. citizens and permanent residents who test negative.

Medical experts, including the WHO, warned against any overreaction before the variant was better understood. But a jittery world feared the worst nearly two years after the tenacious virus emerged and triggered a pandemic that has killed more than 5 million people around the globe. “We must move quickly and at the earliest possible moment,” British Health Secretary Sajid Javid told lawmakers. Omicron has now been seen in travelers to Belgium, Hong Kong and Israel as well as in southern Africa. There was no immediate indication whether the variant causes more severe disease. As with other variants, some infected people display no symptoms, South African experts said. The WHO panel drew from the Greek alphabet in naming the variant omicron, as it has done with earlier, major variants of the virus. Even though some of the genetic changes appear worrisome, it was unclear how much of a public health threat it posed. Some previous variants, like the beta variant, initially concerned scientists but did not spread very far.

The 27-nation European Union suspended air travel from southern Africa, and stocks tumbled in Asia, Europe and the United States. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 1,000 points before an afternoon uptick. The S&P 500 index closed down 2.3%, its worst day since February. The price of oil plunged about 13%. “The last thing we need is to bring in a new variant that will cause even more problems,” German Health Minister Jens Spahn said. The member nations of the EU have experienced a massive spike in cases recently. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said flights will have to “be suspended until we have a clear understanding about the danger posed by this new variant, and travelers returning from this region should respect strict quarantine rules.” She warned that “mutations could lead to the emergence and spread of even more concerning variants of the virus that could spread worldwide within a few months.” “It’s a suspicious variant,” said Frank Vandenbroucke, health minister in Belgium, which became the first European Union country to announce a case of the variant. “We don’t know if it’s a very dangerous variant.”

Omicron has yet to be detected in the United States, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government’s top infectious disease expert. Although it may be more transmissible and resistant to vaccines than other variants, “we don’t know that for sure right now,” he told CNN. Speaking to reporters outside a bookstore on Nantucket Island, where he was spending the holiday weekend, Biden said the new variant was “a great concern” that “should make clearer than ever why this pandemic will not end until we have global vaccinations.” He called anew for unvaccinated Americans to get their widely available doses and for governments to waive intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines so they can be more rapidly manufactured around the world. Israel, one of the world’s most vaccinated countries, announced Friday that it also detected its first case of the new variant in a traveler who returned from Malawi. The traveler and two other suspected cases were placed in isolation. Israel said all three were vaccinated, but officials were looking into the travelers’ exact vaccination status. After a 10-hour overnight trip, passengers aboard KLM Flight 598 from Capetown, South Africa, to Amsterdam were held on the edge of the runway Friday morning at Schiphol airport for four hours pending special testing. Passengers aboard a flight from Johannesburg were also being isolated and tested. “It’s ridiculous. If we didn’t catch the dreaded bug before, we’re catching it now,” said passenger Francesca de’ Medici, a Rome-based art consultant who was on the flight.

Some experts said the variant’s emergence illustrated how rich countries’ hoarding of vaccines threatens to prolong the pandemic. Fewer than 6% of people in Africa have been fully immunized against COVID-19, and millions of health workers and vulnerable populations have yet to receive a single dose. Those conditions can speed up spread of the virus, offering more opportunities for it to evolve into a dangerous variant. “This is one of the consequences of the inequity in vaccine rollouts and why the grabbing of surplus vaccines by richer countries will inevitably rebound on us all at some point,” said Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at Britain’s University of Southampton. He urged Group of 20 leaders “to go beyond vague promises and actually deliver on their commitments to share doses.”

The new variant added to investor anxiety that months of progress containing COVID-19 could be reversed. “Investors are likely to shoot first and ask questions later until more is known,” said Jeffrey Halley of foreign exchange broker Oanda. The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention discouraged any travel bans on countries that reported the new variant. It said past experience shows that such travel bans have “not yielded a meaningful outcome.” Yet much of the world moved quickly to shut down or severely restrict contact with travelers from southern Africa. The U.S. restrictions will apply to visitors from South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi. The White House suggested the restrictions will mirror an earlier pandemic policy that banned entry of any foreigners who had traveled over the previous two weeks in the designated regions. The U.K. banned flights from South Africa and five other southern African countries and announced that anyone who had recently arrived from those countries would be asked to take a coronavirus test. Canada banned the entry of all foreigners who have traveled to southern Africa in the last two weeks. The Japanese government announced that Japanese nationals traveling from Eswatini, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Botswana, South Africa and Lesotho will have to quarantine at government-dedicated accommodations for 10 days and take three COVID-19 tests during that time. Japan has not yet opened up to foreign nationals. Russia announced travel restrictions effective Sunday.

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Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......

THE AUSTRALIAN --- 27 November 2021



ROCKMAN

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Nate
It has minimal impact suspending direct flights as people will just fly back via the Middle East and it could be argued that direct flights are safer as there is potential for people to spread the virus whilst transferring.

Nate

Direct flight, by airline industry definition, is more than one stop on the same plane. ABC etc.

That's an issue with people getting off and on.

Non-stop might be less of an issue but if someone inside the tuna can with wings is infected, it doesn't matter.

This new variant must be extremely transmissible if it turns out to be the variant that 60 out of 600 people have tested positive for at Amsterdam Schiphol airport.The BBC is reporting that it has now arrived in the UK.Hopefully it proves to be no more deadly than previous strains and the vaccines still work well against it.

Nate

All the news sources seem obsessed with how transmissible new mutations are, but not whether (once you have caught it) it's any more dangerous than all the rest.

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Green Lady
All the news sources seem obsessed with how transmissible new mutations are, but not whether (once you have caught it) it's any more dangerous than all the rest.

With relatively few cases so far, it may be early days yet to reach a conclusion. Fingers crossed that it isn’t as bad as early warnings suggest - we don’t need a new surge, and we DO need Stones-related festivities in London next year.

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Green Lady
All the news sources seem obsessed with how transmissible new mutations are, but not whether (once you have caught it) it's any more dangerous than all the rest.

Yes and it’s the serious illness and death that should be the focus not the cases most of which are people sitting at home feeling a little rough for a few days and nothing more.Being much more contagious than previous strains is actually a good thing if it poses no more serious dangers as it will just speed up the pace of the pandemic.

Nate