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Stoneage
Would you believe it? In September 29th Sweden will open up. No more restrictions (well, almost). I wonder what will happen...

My first guess will be a spike in Covid cases. Anyone want to bet the other side?

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georgie48

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MisterDDDD
One in 5,000
The real chances of a breakthrough infection.


The C.D.C. reported a terrifying fact in July: Vaccinated people with the Delta variant of the Covid virus carried roughly the same viral load in their noses and throats as unvaccinated people.

The news seemed to suggest that even the vaccinated were highly vulnerable to getting infected and passing the virus to others. Sure enough, stories about vaccinated people getting Covid — so-called breakthrough infections — were all around this summer: at a party in Provincetown, Mass.; among the Chicago Cubs; on Capitol Hill. Delta seemed as if it might be changing everything.

In recent weeks, however, more data has become available, and it suggests that the true picture is less alarming. Yes, Delta has increased the chances of getting Covid for almost everyone. But if you’re vaccinated, a Covid infection is still uncommon, and those high viral loads are not as worrisome as they initially sounded.

How small are the chances of the average vaccinated American contracting Covid? Probably about one in 5,000 per day, and even lower for people who take precautions or live in a highly vaccinated community.

Or maybe one in 10,000

The estimates here are based on statistics from three places that have reported detailed data on Covid infections by vaccination status: Utah; Virginia; and King County, which includes Seattle, in Washington state. All three are consistent with the idea that about one in 5,000 vaccinated Americans have tested positive for Covid each day in recent weeks.

The chances are surely higher in the places with the worst Covid outbreaks, like the Southeast. And in places with many fewer cases — like the Northeast, as well as the Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco areas — the chances are lower, probably less than 1 in 10,000. That’s what the Seattle data shows, for example. (These numbers don’t include undiagnosed cases, which are often so mild that people do not notice them and do not pass the virus to anyone else.)

Here’s one way to think about a one-in-10,000 daily chance: It would take more than three months for the combined risk to reach just 1 percent.

“There’s been a lot of miscommunication about what the risks really are to vaccinated people, and how vaccinated people should be thinking about their lives,” as Dr. Ashish Jha of Brown University told my colleague Tara Parker-Pope. (I recommend Tara’s recent Q. and A. on breakthrough infections.)

In an unvaccinated person, a viral load is akin to an enemy army facing little resistance. In a vaccinated person, the human immune system launches a powerful response and tends to prevail quickly — often before the host body gets sick or infects others. That the viral loads were initially similar in size can end up being irrelevant.

I will confess to one bit of hesitation about walking you through the data on breakthrough infections: It’s not clear how much we should be worrying about them. For the vaccinated, Covid resembles the flu and usually a mild one. Society does not grind to a halt over the flu.


More...
[www.nytimes.com]

People may think "Ah, 1 in 5000 or even 1 in 10000, that's a small chance", but winning the jackpot is 1 in many millions, so "small chance?". Don't think so. Get you vaccin!

Well just to clarify the point here Georgie, I think that the 1 in 5000, or 10000 is WITH the vaccine.

If you're not vaccinated it's going to be one helluva lot easier to catch than that...I'd say almost 1 to 1 odds. Same conclusion though...get vaccinated.

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treaclefingers

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georgie48

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MisterDDDD
One in 5,000
The real chances of a breakthrough infection.


The C.D.C. reported a terrifying fact in July: Vaccinated people with the Delta variant of the Covid virus carried roughly the same viral load in their noses and throats as unvaccinated people.

The news seemed to suggest that even the vaccinated were highly vulnerable to getting infected and passing the virus to others. Sure enough, stories about vaccinated people getting Covid — so-called breakthrough infections — were all around this summer: at a party in Provincetown, Mass.; among the Chicago Cubs; on Capitol Hill. Delta seemed as if it might be changing everything.

In recent weeks, however, more data has become available, and it suggests that the true picture is less alarming. Yes, Delta has increased the chances of getting Covid for almost everyone. But if you’re vaccinated, a Covid infection is still uncommon, and those high viral loads are not as worrisome as they initially sounded.

How small are the chances of the average vaccinated American contracting Covid? Probably about one in 5,000 per day, and even lower for people who take precautions or live in a highly vaccinated community.

Or maybe one in 10,000

The estimates here are based on statistics from three places that have reported detailed data on Covid infections by vaccination status: Utah; Virginia; and King County, which includes Seattle, in Washington state. All three are consistent with the idea that about one in 5,000 vaccinated Americans have tested positive for Covid each day in recent weeks.

The chances are surely higher in the places with the worst Covid outbreaks, like the Southeast. And in places with many fewer cases — like the Northeast, as well as the Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco areas — the chances are lower, probably less than 1 in 10,000. That’s what the Seattle data shows, for example. (These numbers don’t include undiagnosed cases, which are often so mild that people do not notice them and do not pass the virus to anyone else.)

Here’s one way to think about a one-in-10,000 daily chance: It would take more than three months for the combined risk to reach just 1 percent.

“There’s been a lot of miscommunication about what the risks really are to vaccinated people, and how vaccinated people should be thinking about their lives,” as Dr. Ashish Jha of Brown University told my colleague Tara Parker-Pope. (I recommend Tara’s recent Q. and A. on breakthrough infections.)

In an unvaccinated person, a viral load is akin to an enemy army facing little resistance. In a vaccinated person, the human immune system launches a powerful response and tends to prevail quickly — often before the host body gets sick or infects others. That the viral loads were initially similar in size can end up being irrelevant.

I will confess to one bit of hesitation about walking you through the data on breakthrough infections: It’s not clear how much we should be worrying about them. For the vaccinated, Covid resembles the flu and usually a mild one. Society does not grind to a halt over the flu.


More...
[www.nytimes.com]

People may think "Ah, 1 in 5000 or even 1 in 10000, that's a small chance", but winning the jackpot is 1 in many millions, so "small chance?". Don't think so. Get you vaccin!

Well just to clarify the point here Georgie, I think that the 1 in 5000, or 10000 is WITH the vaccine.

If you're not vaccinated it's going to be one helluva lot easier to catch than that...I'd say almost 1 to 1 odds. Same conclusion though...get vaccinated.

Yes, breakthrough cases means fully vaccinated. Unvaxxed is like playing Russian roulette.

This is an article on the topic. The risk differs by the vaccination and general infection rates. [www.sfgate.com]



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021-09-08 01:31 by daspyknows.

You have a vastly superior chance of survival being surrounded by unvaccinated people whilst also being unvaccinated yourself versus playing Russian roulette.
The odds of dying from Covid if unvaccinated are a million miles away from 5/1

Nate

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Nate
You have a vastly superior chance of survival being surrounded by unvaccinated people whilst also being unvaccinated yourself versus playing Russian roulette.
The odds of dying from Covid if unvaccinated are a million miles away from 5/1

Nate

True, that would be the odds of catching it.

But a bad outcome is pretty high, depending on age. I think if you're over 80 it's like shooting fish in a barrel if your unvaccinated.

However death isn't the only thing to worry about unvaccinated, and that is the plethora of longer term potential outcomes with various organs including the brain.

Israel is already talking about a 4th dose (!)...yet sadly, some corners of the world haven't even had a first dose...

Meanwhile................

Israel was a vaccination poster child. Now its COVID surge shows the world what’s coming next

israel

The country that was once predicted to be the first to vaccinate its entire population had the highest per-capita caseload of anywhere in the week through Sept. 4, according to figures compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Its world-beating inoculation rate, meanwhile, has tumbled down the league table. The nation of 9 million became the test case for reopening society and the economy in April when much of Europe and the U.S. were still in some form of lockdown. Yet Israel now shows how the calculus is changing in places where progress was fastest. It’s no longer just about whether people get coronavirus, but also how badly they get it and ensuring that vaccines are still working as the highly infectious Delta variant threatens to undermine immunity. More recently, it has led the way when it comes to vaccinating children and rolling out a booster shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine after research suggested reduced efficacy over time. Around 100,000 Israelis are getting inoculated every day, the vast majority of them with a third shot. “If you are able to maintain life without lockdown, and to avoid very high numbers of hospitalizations and death, then this is what life with COVID looks like,” said Eyal Leshem, a professor specializing in infectious diseases at the Sheba Medical Center in Tel Ha-Shomer.

Since April, Israel has fallen from first to 33rd in Bloomberg’s vaccine tracker of populations considered fully vaccinated. The program plateaued amid hesitancy from some in the Orthodox Jewish and Arab communities. About 61% of Israelis have been given two doses, lower than in European laggards earlier in the year such as France and Spain. Following the spread of the Delta variant over the summer, Israel has seen cases climb, reaching an all-time high of 11,316 daily cases on Sept. 2. The number of people falling seriously sick and being hospitalized, though, has risen less than it did during the last coronavirus wave, peaking at 751 in late August, compared with 1,183 in mid-January. The trend is now downward. Infections jumped because of the prevalence of cases among the unvaccinated, especially children. There were also so-called breakthrough infections in those who have been vaccinated, and the drop in efficacy of vaccines. That said, unvaccinated people account for more than 10 times as many serious cases as those who have received two doses, showing that even with immunity waning, shots are providing protection.

For public health officials and politicians, the latest chapter of the pandemic is to concentrate on ensuring older people more at risk continue to be protected while cases are rising among children. The importance of that drive is heightened by the return of millions of children to schools last week, and the Jewish New Year this week. Epidemiologists say cases among the over 30s are already declining thanks to the boosters and restrictions on bars and restaurants to the fully vaccinated. The highest rate of new cases in recent weeks is among children under the age of 12, according to Ran Balicer, chair of the expert advisory panel to the government. There’s also a record level of testing. “Waning immunity is a real challenge that every country needs to prepare a contingency plan to tackle,” said Balicer, who is also chief innovation officer for Israeli health maintenance organization Clalit. The data coming from Israel in the coming weeks will allow the world to assess the efficacy of the booster shot program, he said.

As of Sept. 6, at least 2.6 million people in Israel—around 28% of the population—have now had the booster shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, according to the Israeli Health Ministry. That rises to at least 64% for people in age brackets over 60. Significantly, the booster shot is also available for anyone over 12 who was vaccinated at least five months ago. The wildcard is the return of schools. That could change the transmission dynamics and expose all age groups to infection because of kids coming home with COVID-19, Balicer said. The World Health Organization’s heat map puts Israel in the top five in the wider European region. The rolling data show areas with the highest seven-day infection rates are in Scotland, where 68% of the population are fully vaccinated. Cases surged after restrictions were lifted and then schools returned from their summer break in mid-August. “If we look back a year ago, we virtually had no protection other than a complete lockdown,” said Leshem. “Now, we have an open education system, fully open commerce, and despite over 50,000 cases a week, we are not seeing increases in the number of severe cases and hospitalization.”

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Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......

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Nate
You have a vastly superior chance of survival being surrounded by unvaccinated people whilst also being unvaccinated yourself versus playing Russian roulette.
The odds of dying from Covid if unvaccinated are a million miles away from 5/1

Nate

Spoken from someone who hasn't had Covid and whines about wearing a mask at concerts.

Be in shape,live healthy and it's like a case of the flu.

Who wears masks at concerts? The number of ppl removing their masks to eat or drink. Makes them even more useless.

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MingSubu
Be in shape,live healthy and it's like a case of the flu.

Thank you for your insights Dr. Subu.

To think all this time I'd been wasting my time listening to my doctor, my government, the WHO, the mainstream media, and common sense!

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treaclefingers

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MingSubu
Be in shape,live healthy and it's like a case of the flu.

Thank you for your insights Dr. Subu.

To think all this time I'd been wasting my time listening to my doctor, my government, the WHO, the mainstream media, and common sense!

No problem. You keep doing you. You will be ok.

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MingSubu
Be in shape,live healthy and it's like a case of the flu.

Who wears masks at concerts? The number of ppl removing their masks to eat or drink. Makes them even more useless.

Whatever you say Dr. Ming. This guy was healthy and some might say was in good shape.

Unvaccinated fitness guru gets COVID and spends 47 days intubated. ‘I made a mistake’

[www.sacbee.com]

Maria Phillips walked through the doors of an intensive care unit in Colorado and saw her husband lying there.

Her husband, Bill, was the epitome of health — before he got COVID-19.

“I will never forget walking into the ICU for the first time and seeing my smart, strong, healthy, and full of life husband laying prone on his stomach, in a medically induced coma, because of all the damage COVID-19 was doing to his lungs,” Maria said Aug. 5 on Facebook.

Bill Phillips’ life isdedicated to health and fitness. He wrote a New York Times best-selling book on strength training and is the CEO and owner of his own nutrition company.

The 56-year-old even has two Superbowl rings after working with the Denver Broncos as the team’s performance nutrition and supplementation expert in 1997 and 1998. At one point, he could bench press 300 pounds and run a mile uphill with no problem, Bill told 9 News.

He never thought COVID-19 could knock him out. Bill chose not to get vaccinated against the coronavirus because he thought he would be protected after already having the virus before, according to 9 News.

“I did not get vaccinated because I made a mistake,” Bill told The Denver Post. “I thought since I had COVID in January 2020, I was immune to it. That mistake came…close to costing my life.”

Bill was put into a medically induced coma and on a ventilator at St. Anthony Hospital in Lakewood to help him breathe, The Denver Post reported. He was intubated for 47 days and didn’t wake up for 18 days, according to 9 News. He lost 70 pounds.

His wife said she wasn’t allowed in his ICU room for 10 days because of safety protocols.

“I lived in the ICU waiting room, hoping I could stand outside his glass door for a few minutes just so I could catch a glimpse,” Maria said on Facebook. “I couldn’t eat, couldn’t sleep, all my thoughts and entire being was consumed with praying for Bill to be given a second chance at life.”

Maria said on Facebook watching her husband fight COVID-19 was “some of the darkest moments,” and was “an immeasurable amount of pain and trauma.”

Both Bill and Maria are now urging everyone to get vaccinated against the coronavirus to hopefully save themselves from going through something like they did.

“If it could happen to me, it could happen to anybody,” Bill told The Denver Post. “It’s not a political issue. It’s a public health issue.”

Maria said the opportunity for Bill to be on a ventilator in the ICU saved his life. In some parts of the country, intensive care units are at fully capacity. Not everyone can get an ICU bed when they need one.

Written by Karen Gallardo, a respiratory therapist at Community Memorial Hospital in the city where I live, and recently published in the L.A. Times.

Op-Ed: On the front lines, here’s what the seven stages of severe COVID-19 look like

Coronavirus

I’m a respiratory therapist. With the fourth wave of the pandemic in full swing, fueled by the highly contagious Delta variant, the trajectory of the patients I see, from admission to critical care, is all too familiar. When they’re vaccinated, their COVID-19 infections most likely end after Stage 1. If only that were the case for everyone. Get vaccinated. If you choose not to, here’s what to expect if you are hospitalized for a serious case of COVID-19.

Stage 1. You’ve had debilitating symptoms for a few days, but now it is so hard to breathe that you come to the emergency room. Your oxygen saturation level tells us you need help, a supplemental flow of 1 to 4 liters of oxygen per minute. We admit you and start you on antivirals, steroids, anticoagulants or monoclonal antibodies. You’ll spend several days in the hospital feeling run-down, but if we can wean you off the oxygen, you’ll get discharged. You survive.

Stage 2. It becomes harder and harder for you to breathe. “Like drowning,” many patients describe the feeling. The bronchodilator treatments we give you provide little relief. Your oxygen requirements increase significantly, from 4 liters to 15 liters to 40 liters per minute. Little things, like relieving yourself or sitting up in bed, become too difficult for you to do on your own. Your oxygen saturation rapidly declines when you move about. We transfer you to the intensive care unit.

Stage 3. You’re exhausted from hyperventilating to satisfy your body’s demand for air. We put you on noninvasive, “positive pressure” ventilation — a big, bulky face mask that must be Velcro’d tightly around your face so the machine can efficiently push pressure into your lungs to pop them open so you get enough of the oxygen it delivers.

Stage 4. Your breathing becomes even more labored. We can tell you’re severely fatigued. An arterial blood draw confirms that the oxygen content in your blood is critically low. We prepare to intubate you. If you’re able to and if there’s time, we will suggest that you call your loved ones. This might be the last time they’ll hear your voice. We connect you to a ventilator. You are sedated and paralyzed, fed through a feeding tube, hooked to a Foley catheter and a rectal tube. We turn your limp body regularly, so you don’t develop pressure ulcers — bed sores. We bathe you and keep you clean. We flip you onto your stomach to allow for better oxygenation. We will try experimental therapeutics.

Stage 5. Some patients survive Stage 4. Unfortunately, your oxygen levels and overall condition have not improved after several days on the ventilator. Your COVID-infested lungs need assistance and time to heal, something that an ECMO machine, which bypasses your lungs and oxygenates your blood, can provide. But alas, our community hospital doesn’t have that capability. If you’re stable enough, you will get transferred to another hospital for that therapy. Otherwise, we’ll continue treating you as best we can. We’re understaffed and overwhelmed, but we’ll always give you the best care we can.

Stage 6. The pressure required to open your lungs is so high that air can leak into your chest cavity, so we insert tubes to clear it out. Your kidneys fail to filter the byproducts from the drugs we continuously give you. Despite diuretics, your entire body swells from fluid retention, and you require dialysis to help with your renal function. The long hospital stay and your depressed immune system make you susceptible to infections. A chest X-ray shows fluid accumulating in your lung sacs. A blood clot may show up, too. We can’t prevent these complications at this point; we treat them as they present. If your blood pressure drops critically, we will administer vasopressors to bring it up, but your heart may stop anyway. After several rounds of CPR, we’ll get your pulse and circulation back. But soon, your family will need to make a difficult decision.

Stage 7: After several meetings with the palliative care team, your family decides to withdraw care. We extubate you, turning off the breathing machinery. We set up a final FaceTime call with your loved ones. As we work in your room, we hear crying and loving goodbyes. We cry, too, and we hold your hand until your last natural breath. I’ve been at this for 17 months now. It doesn’t get easier. My pandemic stories rarely end well.

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Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......

The U.S. has arrived at another milestone in this pandemic, the number of dead from the virus now exceeds the number of dead resulting from the "Spanish Flu"

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curt
The U.S. has arrived at another milestone in this pandemic, the number of dead from the virus now exceeds the number of dead resulting from the "Spanish Flu"

Incredible...incredibly sad...over 100 years later...with all the advances of science and medicine...and to think it's far from over...only 54% fully vaccinated...and the possibility of more variants and mutations...

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Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......

I Got A 'Mild' Breakthrough Case. Here's What I Wish I'd Known

Don't leave it all up to the vaccine. Wear masks, stay away from big gatherings with unvaccinated people, cut down on travel, at least until things calm down.

Coronavirus

A 'mild' breakthrough COVID-19 infection may not feel mild at all.

The test results that hot day in early August shouldn't have surprised me — all the symptoms were there. A few days earlier, fatigue had enveloped me like a weighted blanket. I chalked it up to my weekend of travel. Next, a headache clamped down on the back of my skull. Then my eyeballs started to ache. And soon enough, everything tasted like nothing. As a reporter who's covered the coronavirus since the first confirmed U.S. case landed in Seattle, where I live, I should have known what was coming, but there was some part of me that couldn't quite believe it. I had a breakthrough case of COVID-19 — despite my two shots of the Pfizer vaccine, the second one in April. I was just one more example of our country's tug-and-pull between fantasies of a post-COVID summer and the realities of our still-raging pandemic, where even the vaccinated can get sick. Not only was I sick, but I'd brought the virus home and exposed my 67-year-old father and extended family during my very first trip back to the East Coast since the start of the pandemic. It was just the scenario I had tried to avoid for a year and a half. And it definitely was not the summer vacation I had anticipated. Where did I get it? Who knows.

Like so many Americans, I had loosened up with wearing masks and social distancing, after getting fully vaccinated. We had flown across the country, seen friends, stayed at a hotel, eaten indoors and, yes, even went to a long delayed wedding with other vaccinated people. I ended up in quarantine at my father's house. Two rapid antigen tests (taken a day apart) came back negative, but I could tell I was starting to feel sick. After my second negative test, the nurse leveled with me. "Don't hang your hat on this," she said of the results. Sure enough, a few days later the results of a PCR test for the coronavirus (this one sent to a lab) confirmed what had become obvious by then. It was a miserable five days. My legs and arms ached, my fever crept up to 103 and every few hours of sleep would leave my sheets drenched in sweat. I'd drop into bed exhausted after a quick trip down to the kitchen. To sum it up, I'd put my breakthrough case of COVID-19 right up there with my worst bouts of flu. Even after my fever cleared up, I spent the next few weeks feeling low. Of course, I am very lucky. I didn't go up against the virus with a naive immune system, like millions of Americans did until vaccines were widely available. And, in much of the world, vaccines are still a distant promise. "You probably would have gotten much sicker if you had not been vaccinated," Dr. Francesca Torriani, an infectious disease physician at the University of California, San Diego, explained to me recently. As I shuffled around my room checking my fever, it was also reassuring to know that my chances of ending up in the hospital were very slim, even with the delta variant. And now, about a month later, I've made a full recovery. The reality is breakthrough cases are becoming more common. Here's what you should know about getting a breakthrough case — and what I wish I'd known, when those first symptoms laid me low.

Is it time for reality check about what the vaccines can — and can't do?

The vaccines aren't a forcefield that ward off all things COVID. They were given the greenlight because they greatly lower your chance of getting seriously ill or dying. But it was easy for me — and I'm not the only one — to grab onto the idea that, after so many months of trying not to get COVID-19, that the vaccine was, more or less, the finish line. And that made getting sick from the virus unnerving. After all, there were reassuring findings earlier this year that the vaccine was remarkably good at stopping any infection, even mild ones. This was a kind of bonus, we were told. And then in May the CDC said go ahead and shed your mask, if you're vaccinated. "There was so much initial euphoria about how well these vaccines work," says Jeff Duchin, an infectious disease physician and the public health officer for Seattle & King County. "I think we — in the public health community, in the medical community — facilitated the impression that these vaccines are bulletproof." It's hard to keep dialing up and down your risk calculations. So if you'd hoped to avoid getting sick at all, even slightly, it may be time for a "reset," Duchin says. This isn't to be alarmist, but to clear away expectations that COVID is out of your life, and keep up your vigilance about common-sense precautions. With more people vaccinated, the total number of breakthrough infections will rise, and that's not unexpected," he says. "I don't think our goal should be to achieve zero risk, because that's unrealistic."

How high are my chances of getting a breakthrough case these days?

It used to be quite rare, but the rise of delta has changed the odds. "It's a totally different ballgame with this delta phase," says Dr. Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, Calif. "I think the chance of having a symptomatic infection has gone up substantially." But, he adds, "quantifying that in the U.S. is very challenging" because our "data is so shoddy." The vaccinated still have a considerably lower chance of getting infected than those who aren't protected that way. Look at data collected from Los Angeles County over the summer as the delta variant started to surge in Southern California: Unvaccinated people were 5 times more likely to test positive than those who were vaccinated. Recent research has tried to pin down how well the vaccines are working against preventing any breakthrough cases during the delta surge, but much of that comes from other countries and estimates vary significantly. In the U.S., a study published recently in the New England Journal of Medicine, concluded that vaccine effectiveness "against any symptomatic disease is considerably lower against the delta variant," dropping from over 90% earlier in the year before delta was the predominant strain to only about 65% in July. Research on breakthrough infections over the summer in New York found the vaccines were still overall about 80% effective against any infection. Each study has its limits. It's very hard to disentangle what's most responsible for the rise in breakthrough infections this summer — whether it's the delta variant itself, waning immunity in some people, or that much of the U.S. dropped public health precautions like masking. "We don't have good evidence of what's the cause, but we do know all of these things coming together are associated with more breakthroughs," says Rachel Piltch-Loeb, a public health researcher at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

How careful do I need to be if I want to avoid a breakthrough?

Looking back, I wish I'd taken some more precautions. And my advice is different now when friends and family tell me they want to avoid having a breakthrough case like mine: Don't leave it all up to the vaccine. Wear masks, stay away from big gatherings with unvaccinated people, cut down on travel, at least until things calm down. The U.S. is averaging more than 130,000 coronavirus infections a day (about twice what it was when I fell sick), hospitals are being crushed and the White House has proposed booster shots. Scientists are still making sense of what's happening with breakthrough cases. What's clear is that in many parts of the U.S., we're all more likely to run into the virus than we were in the spring. "Your risk is going to be different if you are in a place that's very highly vaccinated, with very low level of community spread," says Dr. Preeti Malani, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Michigan. "The piece that's important is what's happening in your community." Even with delta, the goal is not to go back to a lockdown mindset, though, says Malani. "My hope is that people who are fully vaccinated should really feel like this risk is manageable." "Feel good about spending time with your friends, or having a small dinner party, but make sure everyone is vaccinated," she says.

What does a "mild" case of COVID-19 feel like?

In my case, it was worse than expected, but, in the parlance of public health, it was "mild," meaning I didn't end up in the hospital or require oxygen.
This mild category is essentially a catch-all, explains Dr. Robert Wachter who chairs the department of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco. "Mild" can be "a day of feeling crummy to being completely laid up in bed for a week, all of your bones hurt and your brain isn't working well." "So even if we call them mild cases, as you've seen, sometimes these are ones you really don't want to have if you can avoid it," he says. There's not great data on the details of these mild breakthrough infections, but so far it appears that "you do way better than those who are not vaccinated," says Dr. Sarang Yoon an occupational medicine specialist at theUniversity of Utah Rocky Mountain Center for Occupational Environmental Health, who was part of a nationwide CDC study on breakthrough infections."In general, in terms of symptom duration, it's much shorter." Yoon's study, published in June with data collected before the delta surge, offers some reassurance: the presence of fever was cut in half, and the days spent in bed reduced by 60% among people with breakthrough infections, compared to unvaccinated people who got sick. "These are meaningful decreases," says Matt Thiese, an epidemiologist and colleague of Yoon's who worked on the study. "It can be the difference between having a fever for almost nine days and having a fever for just under three days." A recent study from the U.K. also shows that if you're sick because of a breakthrough case, it's generally not as bad and people have fewer symptoms.. In fact, the top five symptoms for people with a breakthrough infection were headache, sneezing, runny nose, sore throat and loss of smell. Notably absent: fever and persistent cough, which are in the top five for unvaccinated people, according to the data compiled by the U.K. researchers.

If I get a breakthrough infection, how sick could I get?

Even with delta, the chance of getting a case of COVID-19 that's bad enough to send you to the hospital is still very rare. If you're vaccinated, the risk of being hospitalized is 10 times lower than if you weren't vaccinated, according to the latest data from the CDC. Those who get severely and critically ill with a breakthrough case tend to be older — in one study done before delta, the median age was 80 — with underlying medical conditions, like cardiovascular disease. When I was sick, one thing was in the back of my mind as I monitored my symptoms: Would I have problems catching my breath? Thankfully, when you get exposed, the vaccine has already set you up with antibodies, a first line of defense, that will neutralize parts of the virus that attach to the mucosal surfaces of your upper respiratory tract, says Torriani at UCSD. "That initial moment when our body is attacked by the virus, that can lead to some disease," she says. It's a bit of a race. The virus may cause you to get a cold, but, in most people, your immune system will "get its act together and thwart that infection from going down into your lungs," says Wachter. That later stage of COVID-19 also seems to trigger the immune system to get "overly exuberant" and attack your own body, causing severe respiratory problems like shortness of breath and destructive inflammation. "So if you can prevent that sort of second stage from happening," Wachter says, "you can prevent a lot of the severe illness from COVID." Other parts of your immune system, like T-cells, are also ready to kick into action if you get sick. If you're concerned, you can keep an eye on your oxygen levels with a pulse oximeter. That's much more important than your temperature or symptoms, he says.

Can I spread it to others and do I need to quarantine?

Unfortunately, you still have COVID and need to act like it. Even though my first two tests were negative, I started wearing a mask at my house and keeping my distance from my vaccinated family members. I'm glad I did: no one else got sick. The delta variant is more than two times as contagious as the original strain of the virus and can build up very quickly in your upper respiratory tract, as was shown in a cluster of breakthrough infections linked to Provincetown, Mass. over the summer. "Even in fully vaccinated, asymptomatic individuals, they can have enough virus to transmit it," says Dr. Robert Darnell, a physician scientist at The Rockefeller University. "Delta is very good at replicating, attaching, and inserting itself into cells." The science isn't settled about just how likely vaccinated people are to actually spread the virus, and it does appear that the amount of virus in the nose decreases faster in people who are vaccinated. Even so, wearing masks and staying isolated from others if you test positive or have symptoms is absolutely critical, Darnell says. He also advises getting tested if you are exposed to someone who has COVID, even if you've been vaccinated, "because you could very well get infected or ill, and you want to protect those around you, including all the children who aren't vaccinated."

Could I get long COVID after a breakthrough infection?

The chance I might go on to develop long COVID was front and center in my mind when I had a breakthrough case. While there's not a lot of data yet, research does show that breakthrough infections can lead to the kind of persistent symptoms that characterize long COVID, including brain fog, fatigue and headaches. "Hopefully that number is low. Hopefully it doesn't last as long and it's not as severe, but it's just too early to know these things," says Topol. Recent research from the U.K. suggests that vaccinated people are about 50% less likely to develop long COVID than those who are unvaccinated. The underlying cause of long COVID itself is still not yet known, so this complicates the picture for researchers even more, but this early evidence offers some reassurance. "There may be some symptoms like fatigue [that linger], but studies appear to show that vaccination might also decrease the chances of getting long COVID symptoms," says Torriani. This is not true for everyone, and it's a compelling reason to avoid getting infected altogether, says Wachter. "Some of those mild cases will go on to be long COVID, so you have to factor that in," he says.

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Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......

Very interesting study. A good friend was part of this study. We caught Covid together in NY March 2020. All the people in this study showed the same results.

New Studies Find Evidence Of 'Superhuman' Immunity To COVID-19 In Some Individuals

[www.npr.org]?

Some scientists have called it "superhuman immunity" or "bulletproof." But immunologist Shane Crotty prefers "hybrid immunity."

"Overall, hybrid immunity to SARS-CoV-2 appears to be impressively potent," Crotty wrote in commentary in Science back in June.

No matter what you call it, this type of immunity offers much-needed good news in what seems like an endless array of bad news regarding COVID-19.

Over the past several months, a series of studies has found that some people mount an extraordinarily powerful immune response against SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes the disease COVID-19. Their bodies produce very high levels of antibodies, but they also make antibodies with great flexibility — likely capable of fighting off the coronavirus variants circulating in the world but also likely effective against variants that may emerge in the future.

"One could reasonably predict that these people will be quite well protected against most — and perhaps all of — the SARS-CoV-2 variants that we are likely to see in the foreseeable future," says Paul Bieniasz, a virologist at Rockefeller University who helped lead several of the studies.

In a study published online last month, Bieniasz and his colleagues found antibodies in these individuals that can strongly neutralize the six variants of concern tested, including delta and beta, as well as several other viruses related to SARS-CoV-2, including one in bats, two in pangolins and the one that caused the first coronavirus pandemic, SARS-CoV-1.

"This is being a bit more speculative, but I would also suspect that they would have some degree of protection against the SARS-like viruses that have yet to infect humans," Bieniasz says.

So who is capable of mounting this "superhuman" or "hybrid" immune response?

People who have had a "hybrid" exposure to the virus. Specifically, they were infected with the coronavirus in 2020 and then immunized with mRNA vaccines this year. "Those people have amazing responses to the vaccine," says virologist Theodora Hatziioannou at Rockefeller University, who also helped lead several of the studies. "I think they are in the best position to fight the virus. The antibodies in these people's blood can even neutralize SARS-CoV-1, the first coronavirus, which emerged 20 years ago. That virus is very, very different from SARS-CoV-2."

In fact, these antibodies were even able to deactivate a virus engineered, on purpose, to be highly resistant to neutralization. This virus contained 20 mutations that are known to prevent SARS-CoV-2 antibodies from binding to it. Antibodies from people who were only vaccinated or who only had prior coronavirus infections were essentially useless against this mutant virus. But antibodies in people with the "hybrid immunity" could neutralize it.

These findings show how powerful the mRNA vaccines can be in people with prior exposure to SARS-CoV-2, she says. "There's a lot of research now focused on finding a pan-coronavirus vaccine that would protect against all future variants. Our findings tell you that we already have it.

"But there's a catch, right?" she adds: You first need to be sick with COVID-19. "After natural infections, the antibodies seem to evolve and become not only more potent but also broader. They become more resistant to mutations within the [virus]."

Hatziioannou and colleagues don't know if everyone who has had COVID-19 and then an mRNA vaccine will have such a remarkable immune response. "We've only studied the phenomena with a few patients because it's extremely laborious and difficult research to do," she says.

But she suspects it's quite common. "With every single one of the patients we studied, we saw the same thing." The study reports data on 14 patients.

Several other studies support her hypothesis — and buttress the idea that exposure to both a coronavirus and an mRNA vaccine triggers an exceptionally powerful immune response. In one study, published last month in The New England Journal of Medicine, scientists analyzed antibodies generated by people who had been infected with the original SARS virus — SARS-CoV-1 — back in 2002 or 2003 and who then received an mRNA vaccine this year.

Remarkably, these people also produced high levels of antibodies and — it's worth reiterating this point from a few paragraphs above — antibodies that could neutralize a whole range of variants and SARS-like viruses.

Now, of course, there are so many remaining questions. For example, what if you catch COVID-19 after you're vaccinated? Or can a person who hasn't been infected with the coronavirus mount a "superhuman" response if the person receives a third dose of a vaccine as a booster?

Hatziioannou says she can't answer either of those questions yet. "I'm pretty certain that a third shot will help a person's antibodies evolve even further, and perhaps they will acquire some breadth [or flexibility], but whether they will ever manage to get the breadth that you see following natural infection, that's unclear."

Immunologist John Wherry, at the University of Pennsylvania, is a bit more hopeful. "In our research, we already see some of this antibody evolution happening in people who are just vaccinated," he says, "although it probably happens faster in people who have been infected."

In a recent study, published online in late August, Wherry and his colleagues showed that, over time, people who have had only two doses of the vaccine (and no prior infection) start to make more flexible antibodies — antibodies that can better recognize many of the variants of concern.

So a third dose of the vaccine would presumably give those antibodies a boost and push the evolution of the antibodies further, Wherry says. So a person will be better equipped to fight off whatever variant the virus puts out there next.

"Based on all these findings, it looks like the immune system is eventually going to have the edge over this virus," says Bieniasz, of Rockefeller University. "And if we're lucky, SARS-CoV-2 will eventually fall into that category of viruses that gives us only a mild cold."

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MingSubu
Be in shape,live healthy and it's like a case of the flu.

Who wears masks at concerts? The number of ppl removing their masks to eat or drink. Makes them even more useless.

If it is like the flu why have 1 out of 500 people in USA died from Covid-19?

Who wears masks at concerts? Certainly I will. There will be a mask mandate. It is like speeding and drunk driving. Makes sense to follow the law.

Bjornulf



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021-09-19 16:27 by bv.

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Nate
You have a vastly superior chance of survival being surrounded by unvaccinated people whilst also being unvaccinated yourself versus playing Russian roulette.
The odds of dying from Covid if unvaccinated are a million miles away from 5/1

Nate

So far as many as 1 out of every 500 people in USA died from Covid-19. The odds of dying from covid-19 is just 100 smaller than playing russian roulette, not millions.

You may choose to play russian roulette or not, only a fool would do it, but you can not choose not to get infected by covid-19, because there are so many who do not follow the very basic rules:

- Distance 5 feet
- Mask

More than 2,000 people die in USA every day from Covid-19. It is a deadly disease, now mainly for the unvaccinated.

Bjornulf

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bv

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MingSubu
Be in shape,live healthy and it's like a case of the flu.

Who wears masks at concerts? The number of ppl removing their masks to eat or drink. Makes them even more useless.

If it is like the fly why have 1 out of 500 people in USA died from Covid-19?

Who wears masks at concerts? Certainly I will. There will be a mask mandate. It is like speeding and drunk driving. Makes sense to follow the law.

I know you get the risks and precautions, not like many others. Hope you have a great tour and have a safe tour.

Why California Has One of the Lowest Covid-19 Rates in the Nation

Vaccinations surged as Delta took hold.

Covid

Here’s some good news to start your morning: California has less Covid-19 transmission than any state in the country. That’s according to federal officials, who on Wednesday ranked the state’s current coronavirus case rate the lowest in the nation. Sure, there are mask mandates and other measures to credit, but most deserving of thanks is the Golden State’s high level of vaccinations. More than 82 percent of Californians aged 12 and older have at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine. Only nine states have more of their populations immunized. The surge of the Delta variant has been a real-life experiment in the effectiveness of vaccines, one that appears to have helped Gov. Gavin Newsom survive a recall election on Tuesday. For the most part, places with high vaccination rates have been protected from the virus. And in California, the Delta surge appears to have done something else as well: pushed vaccination rates even higher. The number of people getting vaccinated here began to stall in June, but then spiked as the Delta variant took hold in late July. Ultimately, about 1.6 million Californians got a first dose of a coronavirus vaccine in August, up from the 1.1 million who did so in July. It’s difficult to tease out what exactly led to the rise in vaccinations. California has recently mandated vaccines for state employees, teachers and health care workers. There’s also been new evidence of the strong protections the vaccines offer, even against the Delta variant. Some Californians may have been persuaded to seek out a shot after witnessing first-hand harm wrought by the virus. We’ve all heard stories of people hospitalized with Covid-19, struggling to breathe, and wishing they had gotten the vaccine.

Since early August, the biggest rise in vaccinations in California has been in the San Joaquin Valley, the Sacramento region and far Northern California — parts of the state that have recently been hardest hit by coronavirus cases. Those regions had low vaccination rates to begin with, so they admittedly had more room to increase. But it’s likely that some people were also influenced by seeing overwhelmed hospitals in their communities. “The question is: What gets you to make a different decision today than you’ve made the last few months?” said UCSF epidemiologist Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo. “I think fear is somewhat of a motivator, unfortunately.” Bibbins-Domingo told me she thinks that social pressure, community outreach and availability of the shots also play a role in who gets vaccinated. The coming months will reveal which strategies work best as California health officials try to encourage holdouts to get immunized. The Delta variant is too contagious to wipe out, even in communities with high vaccination rates, Bibbins-Domingo said. But the shots will remain an essential part of minimizing future surges. “It all starts and ends with vaccination. It doesn’t mean once you cross some magical threshold, the virus magically disappears,” she told me. “How many people are vaccinated — it’s like how many barriers can you put up to withstand the onslaught.”

----------------------------------------------------

Meanwhile, two of California Governor Gavin Newsom's children test positive for Covid. > Coronavirus

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Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......

2 of California Gov. Gavin Newsom's kids test positive for COVID-19
The governor, his wife and two other children have since tested negative

SACRAMENTO -- Two of California Governor Gavin Newsom's children tested positive for COVID-19, a spokesperson for the office of the governor said on Friday.

The spokesperson, Erin Mellon, said the tests were conducted on Thursday, and that the governor, his wife and two other children have since tested negative.

The Newsom family is reportedly continuing to follow all COVID protocols as cases of the virus continue to surge right now.
[abc7news.com]

Being a governor who can be credited with handling the virus issues resulting in his state having one of the lowest covid rates, doesn't translate into it not still hitting home. This is my biggest concern about the tour in re to covid.
Really hope people don't bring kids to any of the shows.

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MisterDDDD
2 of California Gov. Gavin Newsom's kids test positive for COVID-19
The governor, his wife and two other children have since tested negative

SACRAMENTO -- Two of California Governor Gavin Newsom's children tested positive for COVID-19, a spokesperson for the office of the governor said on Friday.

The spokesperson, Erin Mellon, said the tests were conducted on Thursday, and that the governor, his wife and two other children have since tested negative.

The Newsom family is reportedly continuing to follow all COVID protocols as cases of the virus continue to surge right now.
[abc7news.com]

Being a governor who can be credited with handling the virus issues resulting in his state having one of the lowest covid rates, doesn't translate into it not still hitting home. This is my biggest concern about the tour in re to covid.
Really hope people don't bring kids to any of the shows.

Only thing scarier than getting COVID is your kids getting it. (or your parents)

More than 10,000 new deaths reported in US in 1 week this past week.

The United States is facing a COVID-19 surge this summer as the more contagious delta variant spreads.

More than 672,000 Americans have died from COVID-19 while over 4.6 million people have died from the disease worldwide, according to real-time data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University.

Just some info for anyone else in the same sort of situation as me--I just had an antibody test following my third vaccine shot (immunocompromised), and my antibody levels have shot way up. Of course the corollary between antibody levels and level of immunity isn't clear yet, but it's enough to make me recommend that anybody eligible for a third shot should get it if they can.

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Aquamarine
Just some info for anyone else in the same sort of situation as me--I just had an antibody test following my third vaccine shot (immunocompromised), and my antibody levels have shot way up. Of course the corollary between antibody levels and level of immunity isn't clear yet, but it's enough to make me recommend that anybody eligible for a third shot should get it if they can.

Thanks, Aquamarine. I had my 3rd one 3 weeks ago. Next up, high dosage flu vaccine in 3 weeks. Good thing I'm used to being voodoo doll/medical experiment.

Times Square stormed by anti-vaxxers protesting in NYC

Protest

Hundreds of anti-vaxxers flooded Times Square for a polarizing protest Saturday. The event included a pole dancer, and a person who held a sign comparing the inoculation effort to the Nazi’s mass murder of Jews. “How did the Nazi’s do it? They said the Jews were diseased,” one woman’s sign read, social media images show. The woman held in her other hand a picture of a swastika made out of syringes with the phrase “what happened to ‘never again?'” according to the images. American flags and less offensive signage with slogans such as “freedom over fear” and “wake up New York” were also on display in the Crossroads of the World, pictures showed. Few in the crowd wore masks, as many demanded an end to the city’s vaccine passport mandate. The protest came as more than two-thirds of all New York City residents have received at least one shot of the COVID-19 vaccine, health officials said.

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Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......

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crholmstrom

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Aquamarine
Just some info for anyone else in the same sort of situation as me--I just had an antibody test following my third vaccine shot (immunocompromised), and my antibody levels have shot way up. Of course the corollary between antibody levels and level of immunity isn't clear yet, but it's enough to make me recommend that anybody eligible for a third shot should get it if they can.

Thanks, Aquamarine. I had my 3rd one 3 weeks ago. Next up, high dosage flu vaccine in 3 weeks. Good thing I'm used to being voodoo doll/medical experiment.

I'm about to get my flu shot this week too. I had a way worse reaction to last year's flu shot than I did to any of the three Pfizer shots!

Vaccinated back in May, comedian Chris Rock now has Covid.....

'Trust me you don't want this,' comedian tweets

Breakthrough

Comedian and actor Chris Rock revealed Sunday that he has tested positive for Covid-19, and he is using the opportunity to urge others to get vaccinated against the virus.
On his verified Twitter account, Rock posted, "Hey guys I just found out I have COVID, trust me you don't want this. Get vaccinated."
The former "Saturday Night Live" cast member didn't comment on his condition, and his representatives did not immediately return a request from CNN for further comment.
Rock told Jimmy Fallon on an episode of "The Tonight Show" in May that he received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, and joked that he used his star status and "skipped the line" in getting it.

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Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......