"The Year In Touring 2007- Billboard's article.
Date: December 31, 2007 21:58
I think that the article includes some interesting points and informations.
"The Year In Touring 2007
By Ray Waddell
The touring industry continues its roller-coaster ride in 2007, with North American concert dollars and attendance down double digits after a record year in 2006.
The final numbers tallied from Billboard Boxscore reports in 2007 are eye-opening: North American gross concert dollars are down 10.2% to $2.6 billion, and concert attendance is down a staggering 19.2% to 51 million.
Of course, the Rolling Stones, Madonna, U2, Bon Jovi and Barbra Streisand were all touring arenas and stadiums worldwide in 2006, pumping up dollars and attendance. Still, down is down, and way down is way down.
"Yes, a 19.2% decrease in attendance is very disturbing, since it reflects that the consumers are not really supporting breaking and mid-level talent," AEG Live president/CEO Randy Phillips says. "If this trend continues, who will be the headliners of tomorrow?"
For industry-leading Live Nation, 2007 "was a lighter touring year than 2006," according to Jason Garner, president of North American Music for Live Nation. "We saw fewer artists on the road, especially in our global touring unit. We had some great artists out; there were just less of them than past years."
The Stones alone accounted for $425 million in 2006's numbers. Stones tickets topped out at $450, compared with about $250 for this year's top tour, the Police.
But the double-digit decreases of 2007 should concern even the most optimistic in the business.
When worldwide numbers are taken into consideration, the trend is less disturbing; worldwide, grosses are down 1.8% and attendance less than 1%. But a devalued U.S. dollar and international volume accounts for much of this; total shows are up 7.3% worldwide, as opposed to North America being virtually even with last year in volume.
Per-show numbers for many are a more accurate barometer of the overall health of the industry, and in North America the gross per show is down 9.6% and per-show attendance is down 5.3%. Those numbers are roughly similar on a worldwide basis.
The per-show average attendance of 3,293 for North America is the lowest on record for Boxscore; per-show averages routinely topped 6,000 a decade ago.
But much of this is likely a reflection of smaller venues like clubs reporting more diligently and an overall trend toward smaller capacities.
The average per-show capacity for the 15,508 shows reported for 2007 was 4,140. Given total attendance was 51 million and total capacity was 64 million, 13 million seats from reported shows went unsold in 2007, compared with 14 million in 2006. As a rule, less successful shows are less likely to be reported.
So what does all this mean? Some believe it's just the volatile nature of the touring industry beast. "With the huge variance in the number and scale of bands that tour in any given year, it's hard to get an apples-to-apples comparison year over year," C3 Presents partner Charlie Walker says.
"I think it is apples to apples," Metropolitan Talent co-CEO John Scher says of comparing 2006 with 2007. "The most significant factor of all these numbers is overall attendance. If overall attendance is down, we have a fundamental problem with the foundation of our business, and it has to be addressed."
Others say the industry is nearing the end of a gross-skewing boom as boomers age and big-ticket artists and their fans become less active. "We're at the beginning of the peak," says Dennis Arfa, president of Artists Group International (Billy Joel, Rod Stewart). "We're not by any means declaring this is over. We're just in a different place as the years go by with this generation, which is clearly the biggest contributor to the concert dollar."
The aging of the baby boomer so far "has probably been healthy for the concert business because they're still going to concerts of a certain kind," Scher says. "Who do you think's paying these prices?" Arfa is one who believes the industry is transitioning to more shows at smaller venues and what will ultimately be less expensive tickets and/or lower attendance at larger venues. "We were brought up with an aberration.
We're still living with it, it's still dominant, we're OK," Arfa says. "It's still a good business, but instead of doing 18,000 tickets you may do 15,000 tickets."
It is clear the industry is evolving. "Our business model is no different from any other business model, and it's up to us to change with times," C3's Jones says. "I don't think there's ever been a more exciting time."
Ticket prices remain a danger zone and a controversial topic for the past 15 years, with competitive bidding between promoters exacerbating the situation. "I just don't understand why people won't admit ticket prices are too high, service charges are too high and there are too many shows," Metropolitan Talent's Scher says. "The old saying, 'If it ain't broke, don't fix it,' well, the other side of that is, 'If it is broke, fix it.' Factually, less people are going to concerts. We need more people going to concerts."
Nederlander Concerts chairman Adam Friedman says his company has seen solid numbers at the small and midsize venue level, but arena concert sales have been sluggish except for the superstar acts.
"Part of this is due to accelerating artists into the big boxes too early in their careers without developing the fan base, and clearly the other issue is price," Friedman says. "Of course, talent guarantees drive the ticket price and folks are trying to get as much as they can from the road as other sources of income are dwindling. This dynamic will continue to be a problem into 2008 and explains the statistics for 2007."
None of this is lost on AEG Live's Phillips. "I think we, as an industry, may be outpricing our core consumer from the concert experience," he says.
Many of the most successful artists, even the veterans, remain conservative on ticket pricing. "I believe very strongly in the fact that a night out for two or three or four can be hugely expensive if the act doesn't control the prices," Roger Waters' manager Mark Fenwick says. "Particularly for the classic acts, the business is predominantly the road business, and if we kill the golden goose it's our own fault," Fenwick adds.
"And we'll kill the golden goose by upping the price, upping the price, upping the price. People will just say, 'Hey, I'm not going anymore.' "