Within two weeks, I will assume travel from other countries will be banned in a number of European countries. Why? Because it is facts based.

The main sources of the coronavirus in Europe now is Italy and Austria/Tyrol. Two weeks ago the main source was Iran and South Korea, and 2-4 weeks before that it was China. Next week it will be another country, and in 14 days we will have a number of countries on that list of banned countries.

These countries are all the result of clusters of coronavirus outbreak at a much higher level than the average. Typically, these clusters appear because sick people are not tested, and rather than bringing the virus to 2.5 people, which is the average, they turn into supervirussources, bringing the virus to 50-100 people locally. Waiting for weeks before testing is fatal.

Italy went into a complete shutdown yesterday, just a couple of days after they closed down the North. They went from 15 million people staying at home into the entire country of 60 million shut down from school, work, anything. This is serious, highly serious.

Some say the coronavirus is small and not so dangerous. Such stupid talk. They say we have more accidents and deaths from the annual flu, or from hand gun shots, or from car accidents. Well there is a BIG BIG difference. These accidents happen every day every year. They do not show up at the very same day. The hospitals in the world are used to having a number of car crashes every day. But if everyone crashed their cars in Chicago on the same day, like there was a war in Chicago, then no hospital beds or doctors would be able to help more than say 1% of these people.

Understanding a pandemi is all about statistics and mathematics. It is numbers. Two weeks ago we had zero - 0 - coronavirus people tested positive in Norway. In just two weeks the number is now 582. Just today we got 180 new coronavirus tests positive. For a small country like Norway that is very high numbers, we are just 5 million people. But we do thousands of tests, so up to this week we have tested everyone with symptoms, and they have been traced back to mostly Italy and Austria/Tyrol. After 14 days, these start to spread locally.

So the numbers add up. We go from 0 to 10 to 20 to 50 to 100 to 200 to 500 and so on within 14 days. Then just double these numbers every day, and use the death rate of approx 0.7%, thern you will see that there are not enough doctors, respirators, hospital beds or options for the sick and weak people. Other hospital work like routine surgery and car accidents have to be evaluated and postponed if possible. It is just like at war. The doctors will have to make life and death ethical decisions. Some will get treatment and oxygen help, others will have to wait, with a fatal fallout.

This virus will not "just go away" in a month or two. It will be here for months, and there will be another Italy and another one. More countries will be shut down. I assume Norway will ban ALL travel into our country soon. If I was in charge, I would ban all cruise ships, all flights, and halt all tourist activity for 2-3 months. It is that serious.

Then ask yourself this question: Do we have leaders that understand the seriousness of this disease? Well hopefully they will figure out, but we are running out of time, and some countries will be hit harder than others due to mistakes of all kinds.

I do NOT want any discussion who is good and who is bad on virus protection worldwide. It will only lead to a lot of people being banned from posting here. One day even those who think this virus is harmless will see the numbers, and they will act. It is all about the numbers, and of course it is all about testing as soon as possible, before clusters get stuck and multiply into the 100's.

Bjornulf

Coronavirus Death Toll so far
4,590 deaths

vs.





Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-11 20:53 by Roadster32.

Quote
Topi
Why is the WHO not reliable?

Yeah, that baffled me, too.

Quote
bv
Within two weeks, I will assume travel from other countries will be banned in a number of European countries. Why? Because it is facts based.

The main sources of the coronavirus in Europe now is Italy and Austria/Tyrol. Two weeks ago the main source was Iran and South Korea, and 2-4 weeks before that it was China. Next week it will be another country, and in 14 days we will have a number of countries on that list of banned countries.

These countries are all the result of clusters of coronavirus outbreak at a much higher level than the average. Typically, these clusters appear because sick people are not tested, and rather than bringing the virus to 2.5 people, which is the average, they turn into supervirussources, bringing the virus to 50-100 people locally. Waiting for weeks before testing is fatal.

Italy went into a complete shutdown yesterday, just a couple of days after they closed down the North. They went from 15 million people staying at home into the entire country of 60 million shut down from school, work, anything. This is serious, highly serious.

Some say the coronavirus is small and not so dangerous. Such stupid talk. They say we have more accidents and deaths from the annual flu, or from hand gun shots, or from car accidents. Well there is a BIG BIG difference. These accidents happen every day every year. They do not show up at the very same day. The hospitals in the world are used to having a number of car crashes every day. But if everyone crashed their cars in Chicago on the same day, like there was a war in Chicago, then no hospital beds or doctors would be able to help more than say 1% of these people.

Understanding a pandemi is all about statistics and mathematics. It is numbers. Two weeks ago we had zero - 0 - coronavirus people tested positive in Norway. In just two weeks the number is now 582. Just today we got 180 new coronavirus tests positive. For a small country like Norway that is very high numbers, we are just 5 million people. But we do thousands of tests, so up to this week we have tested everyone with symptoms, and they have been traced back to mostly Italy and Austria/Tyrol. After 14 days, these start to spread locally.

So the numbers add up. We go from 0 to 10 to 20 to 50 to 100 to 200 to 500 and so on within 14 days. Then just double these numbers every day, and use the death rate of approx 0.7%, thern you will see that there are not enough doctors, respirators, hospital beds or options for the sick and weak people. Other hospital work like routine surgery and car accidents have to be evaluated and postponed if possible. It is just like at war. The doctors will have to make life and death ethical decisions. Some will get treatment and oxygen help, others will have to wait, with a fatal fallout.

This virus will not "just go away" in a month or two. It will be here for months, and there will be another Italy and another one. More countries will be shut down. I assume Norway will ban ALL travel into our country soon. If I was in charge, I would ban all cruise ships, all flights, and halt all tourist activity for 2-3 months. It is that serious.

Then ask yourself this question: Do we have leaders that understand the seriousness of this disease? Well hopefully they will figure out, but we are running out of time, and some countries will be hit harder than others due to mistakes of all kinds.

I do NOT want any discussion who is good and who is bad on virus protection worldwide. It will only lead to a lot of people being banned from posting here. One day even those who think this virus is harmless will see the numbers, and they will act. It is all about the numbers, and of course it is all about testing as soon as possible, before clusters get stuck and multiply into the 100's.

The main sources of the coronavirus in Europe now is Italy and Austria/Tyrol.

Wrong, not Austria/Tyrol!
It was South Tyrol and that belongs to Italy!

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windmelody
The situation is serious, it is not predictable what is going to happen. I keep my feet still and I try organize things around my family. Yet one has to know, that the WHO is not a reliable organisation. So by now I can only wait and see what happens.

This is political propaganda, or may be just a misunderstanding.

WHO - The World's Health Organization - is part of United Nations - UN. They are in charge of the world's health. All countries in the world rely on WHO.

When China got the virus from the meat market some time in November 2019, they tried to sort out the problem in secret, just like they did witrh SARS in 2002. With SARS it took months until they contacted WHO for help. With the new coronavirus COVID-19 illness, it took 1.5 months, as they made contact on Dec 31, from my memory.

After that, WHO has been organizing advices and work and info and all that other stuff nobody else care to do.

Some might say that UN and WHO are large and slow, but they do still a lot of work. If you do not believe in WHO or UN or any other international organization then may be it is best to find a cave and turn on your favorite channel so that they will keep you in comfort, but that will not make the virus go away unfortunately.

Bjornulf

No, the infected ones had been in Austrian Tyrol.

The Virus just started. Thus no final conclusion can be made on above stats


Also, locally, toilet paper and other paper products are either out or in short supply and overpriced.


Martin County- Florida



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-11 21:07 by Chris Fountain.

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Chris Fountain
The Virus just started. Thus no final conclusion can be made on above stats


Also, locally, toilet paper and other paper products are either out or in short supply and overpriced.


Martin County- Florida

Well it started in November, and it has been around for four months now, we just don't see it, that is the problem.

It is smart to have toilet paper, canned food, pasta and other essentials for 2-4 weeks of use anyway, not just because of the virus, you might break a leg, there might be something else fatal happing and so on.

Bjornulf

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bv

Quote
Chris Fountain
The Virus just started. Thus no final conclusion can be made on above stats


Also, locally, toilet paper and other paper products are either out or in short supply and overpriced.


Martin County- Florida

Well it started in November, and it has been around for four months now, we just don't see it, that is the problem.

It is smart to have toilet paper, canned food, pasta and other essentials for 2-4 weeks of use anyway, not just because of the virus, you might break a leg, there might be something else fatal happing and so on.

Yes, it's common sense to have emergency supplies on hand for any eventuality, be it an earthquake etc for a few weeks. My position is that it is not panic to be prepared.

And if something were to happen, I for one don't want to be in the 8 hour lineup for toilet paper, water, or canned corn.

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Roadster32

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bv

The main sources of the coronavirus in Europe now is Italy and Austria/Tyrol.

Wrong, not Austria/Tyrol!
It was South Tyrol and that belongs to Italy!

St Anton is very much Austria as far as I know. This is where many of the Norwegian coronavirus cases have been coming from the past few days:

St Anton Austria ski holidays

The Norwegian Health Authorities have been tracing each and every positively tested person in Norway since the first one arriving two weeks ago. There is an entire crew of healt personel having the single task to trace iach and every case back to every single source of the virus. As per today these two are the largest sources of coronavirus people arriving to Norway:

109 arriving from Italy
138 arriving from Austria (just increased from 107 this very minute)

Live-oppdatering: coronavirusets spredning i Norge og verden
(live undates - coronavirus in Norway aand the world by VG.no

Austria (Tyrol area) was mentioned separately in a travel ban bulletin today:

Status koronavirus onsdag 11. mars 2020

Many people in Norway do skiing holidays to the alps, both on the Austrian, Swiss and Italian side. Just 2-3 days ago there was a separate plane from Austria with loads of coronavirus cases arriving into Norway. For sure there is a major coronavirus cluster in Austrian Tyrol. We see them arriving into Norway, so I am sure they will appear in the statistics in Austria too soon.

Bjornulf

Speaking of which, PM Merckel of Germany stated that her Health Officials expect 70% of the German population to become infected.

Price Gouging can be reported to the State of Florida. This activity occurs often when threatening hurricanes happen.

Local Walmart is stocking up tonight and I'm going to make an early morning run for said paper and other suggested supplies on your behalf.

I work in Miami , which is 90 miles away. Company says if you have sniffles - just stay home and work from VPN and stay off Iorr.org during work hours

BV-I've been at several shows that you have attended but never seeked you out.
After last year's reschedule due to Mick's health and then 2 shows rescheduled due to hurricanes I thought we had seen it all. Now this year we have the Coronavirus. Through all of this you remain the calm voice of reason. Next show (St. Louis perhaps) I am going to seek you out to simply shake your hand sir!

Just read an interesting bit of information. Researchers found 28 viruses in melting glacier soil/water, that are unknown. The warm sun kills them "instantly", but when traveling in melting water they will end up in civilisation. This phenomenon is currently happining in different parts of the world (Himalya, Alaska, etc.). Nasty buggers, those viruses.

I can understand why certain politcally-oriented posts are not welcome here. Yet, are politics not a part of the equation? This being an election year in the US - where the Stones are scheduled to play and I have a ticket - is it not possible that those in power would prefer things to be "business as usual" rather than pressuring states, counties and cities to massively shut down sporting events and concerts?

Simply stated: is it not possible that these shows will go forward for the simple fact that there will be pressure to keep Americans "happy" and not bustle their daily lives?!

(disclaimer: I'm a US citizen but I won't be voting for the November presidential elections, I live in Europe and am honestly 100% indifferent as to who's in power!)

Quote
bv

Quote
windmelody
The situation is serious, it is not predictable what is going to happen. I keep my feet still and I try organize things around my family. Yet one has to know, that the WHO is not a reliable organisation. So by now I can only wait and see what happens.

This is political propaganda, or may be just a misunderstanding.

WHO - The World's Health Organization - is part of United Nations - UN. They are in charge of the world's health. All countries in the world rely on WHO.

When China got the virus from the meat market some time in November 2019, they tried to sort out the problem in secret, just like they did witrh SARS in 2002. With SARS it took months until they contacted WHO for help. With the new coronavirus COVID-19 illness, it took 1.5 months, as they made contact on Dec 31, from my memory.

After that, WHO has been organizing advices and work and info and all that other stuff nobody else care to do.

Some might say that UN and WHO are large and slow, but they do still a lot of work. If you do not believe in WHO or UN or any other international organization then may be it is best to find a cave and turn on your favorite channel so that they will keep you in comfort, but that will not make the virus go away unfortunately.

Agree with you in general bv, but I do think the the WHO has been too much supportive of chinese power silence up until january 28th. from what I read, at that point a pandemia was already written in the things. so the WHO can be legitimately criticized for the scale of what is happening, being the chinese government the first and the most to be blamed.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-11 21:48 by maumau.

<Simply stated: is it not possible that these shows will go forward for the simple fact that there will be pressure to keep Americans "happy" and not bustle their daily lives?>

Possible, but very irresponsible.

Quote
DandelionPowderman


Possible, but very irresponsible.

The Stones have a say in this too...and I think they will decide to cancel. They probably already have.

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TumblinDice76
BV-I've been at several shows that you have attended but never seeked you out.
After last year's reschedule due to Mick's health and then 2 shows rescheduled due to hurricanes I thought we had seen it all. Now this year we have the Coronavirus. Through all of this you remain the calm voice of reason. Next show (St. Louis perhaps) I am going to seek you out to simply shake your hand sir!

would an elbow bump suffice?

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kv2915

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DandelionPowderman


Possible, but very irresponsible.

The Stones have a say in this too...and I think they will decide to cancel. They probably already have.

No, at a certain point, they won't have a say.

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DandelionPowderman

Possible, but very irresponsible.

I won't judge whether it's irresponsible or not for these shows to be allowed...all I'm thinking (and hoping, depite the situation) is that perhaps the Stones will choose to move forward with these shows unless there's an outright ban on large gatherings.

And the decision of whether or not to ban such large gatherings is likely a huge equation that may or may not be influenced by: the financial markets, major companies/CEOs, the job market, various industries as a whole (airlines, manufacturers, etc.).

History has shown that major decisions aren't always based on good sense, they are also based on personal agendas and interests! Scientific/medical experts and proof are important, but at the end of the day, those experts don't make the final decisions!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-11 22:10 by FrogSugar.

I wonder how many false positives there are.

2 weeks ago there was a conference in Washington DC where 10,000 people attended. One of the attendees got sick, tested positive for COVID-19. Because of this a number of attendees self quarantined. The organizers are in touch with all that attended. So far the amount of people from this that tested positive or have symptoms is zero. We'll see if this changes this week.

I have a trip to Europe planned for April, one week on land and one week cruise. I will most likely cancel the cruise but still waiting on the land portion. As of now, the cruise will let me cancel with 100% credit if the cruise takes place. But not the airline. If the Stones shows go on as planned, the cruise will end within 14 days of the San Diego show, either way, I think I'll take the credit. At this point the quarantine is more of an issue for me than the virus itself.

Testing revealed my daughter to have a "regular" cold/flu virus thankfully.
Thanks for the concerns.. Definitely got my attention and am tripling down on measures to avoid catching it. Tough with school age kids, many more now being tested in my city after a confirmed case of it hitting yesterday.

Governor here in Washington banning events over 250 people in three counties definitely got a lot of peoples attention. Right thing to do I believe, and bet that a few other cities or states follow suit. I think this tour is all but cancelled, but tough to start undoing air and hotels until we get the word.

Holding out (little) hope that they may still be able to go with just a few cities with heavier incidents postponed. Realize that's more and more unlikely though.

Is Live Nation promoting any of the Rolling Stones shows on this tour? The reason
I ask is about a hour ago, the President of Live Nation was on CNN in the USA.
He was basically on to say they are doing their part in limiting exposure to
the virus and he was supporting any bands and festivals whom have cancelled or
postponed their tours.

During the segment CNN was running a lot of clips from the 2019 Rolling Stones tour. The CNN person was mentioning the Stones tour and speculation about what might happen. The Live Nation President avoided making any comments about
the tour. Towards the end of the segment he did divulge a band would be making
a announcement latter this afternoon. He did not say which band that was but he indicated Live Nation was only doing one of their shows.

Unfortunately I was on a conference call - so I wish I could have paid closer attention. Maybe someone else saw the segment?

After viewing I thought it odd that CNN had so many Stones clips running during the segment. Maybe they were told a announcement was on the way?
However it was delayed so they could not discuss.

Or CNN just likes the stones which may be the case.

In Denmark the Prime Minister has just announced at a press conference that all schools, universities, public institutions etc. will close as of friday/monday for at least 14 days. Everybody working in the public sector, except healthcare personel, police etc. will be sent home as of friday. Public gatherings larger than 100 people will be prohibited. Pubs, nightclubs, restaurants etc. will be asked to close for 14 days. More to come...



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-11 22:37 by lmc.

Quote
MisterDDDD
Testing revealed my daughter to have a "regular" cold/flu virus thankfully.
Thanks for the concerns.. Definitely got my attention and am tripling down on measures to avoid catching it. Tough with school age kids, many more now being tested in my city after a confirmed case of it hitting yesterday.

Governor here in Washington banning events over 250 people in three counties definitely got a lot of peoples attention. Right thing to do I believe, and bet that a few other cities or states follow suit. I think this tour is all but cancelled, but tough to start undoing air and hotels until we get the word.

Holding out (little) hope that they may still be able to go with just a few cities with heavier incidents postponed. Realize that's more and more unlikely though.

Glad your daughter is relatively ok

Quote
keefriff99

Quote
kv2915

Quote
DandelionPowderman


Possible, but very irresponsible.

The Stones have a say in this too...and I think they will decide to cancel. They probably already have.

No, at a certain point, they won't have a say.

The Stones may be between a rock and a hard place. It's possible their tour insurance does not cover pandemics.

And what if some areas stop large gatherings, such as Austin, but other areas don't?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-11 22:43 by coloradocanyons.

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crholmstrom
Glad your daughter is relatively ok

Thanks very much, appreciated.

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MisterDDDD
Testing revealed my daughter to have a "regular" cold/flu virus thankfully.
Thanks for the concerns.. Definitely got my attention and am tripling down on measures

glad to hear your daughter is fine

know how do you feel about tripling down on measures here from italy

Quote
BluzDude
I wonder how many false positives there are.

2 weeks ago there was a conference in Washington DC where 10,000 people attended. One of the attendees got sick, tested positive for COVID-19. Because of this a number of attendees self quarantined. The organizers are in touch with all that attended. So far the amount of people from this that tested positive or have symptoms is zero. We'll see if this changes this week.

A false positive is a test that is wrong. Believe me, that is NOT happening in my part of the world.

Norway has been testing may be six thousand cases so far, over the past 3-4 weeks, of which approx 600 are positive on the coronavirus. The remaining 5,000 or so people are in self quaranteen at home, they are NOT counted as a positive test.

Each and every test in Norway is two pass. They do it TWO times. There was a case last week where the pass two test made it clear that two tests had been mixed up, then they got it sorted out. In short, we trust the tests 100%, but of course, tagging and handling tests is a manual task, that is why they have a double quality routine, just like with doping controls.

I know there have been problems with tests for a month now in USA, but I don't know why it got that way. You do not have a test until it is 100% reliable, and there should be absolutely zero false positives.

I watched an interesting interview with one of our top experts on virology in Norway - professor Ørjan Olsvik. He has been working with the army/defence in Africa, on Ebola, which has got a death rate of 70% i.e. extremely fatal. He was in charge of a group of soldiers health, and when they got Ebola they were sent to a camp to die. Then after a few weeks one of his soldiers, who had been sent to this camp to die, was declared as a survivor, through a new test. He was one of the 30% surviving. It was an extremely emotional moment when he waited outside the death camp and as the now healthy soldier walked towards him, they both cried, and he hugged the soldier! The reporter asked: "How come you hugged him? Weren't you scared of Ebola?" The professor said: "I trusted the Canadian Doctor". He trusted the test. With stuff like Ebola, Coronavirus, Sars and so on, there is no room for false positives, or the other way around, it is a matter of life and death. The test must be 100% rock solid, otherwise it is not a test.

Bjornulf

Quote
lmc
In Denmark the Prime Minister has just announced at a press conference that all schools, universities, public institutions etc. will close as of friday/monday for at least 14 days. Everybody working in the public sector, except healthcare personel, police etc. will be sent home as of friday. Public gatherings larger than 100 people will be prohibited. Pubs, nightclubs, restaurants etc. will be asked to close for 14 days. More to come...

I wish my country (the Netherlands) would take some rigorous steps to stop the corona, they only take action in places where it has already gotten out of hand. In the rest of the country corona is already spreads like water ...........

"Maybe the economy/money is more important"