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Nate
I know we should not discuss politics here but I just wanted to point out that New Zealand is already in 2021.
A great example of what can be achieved with a female leader ><

Nate

New Zealand is doing great by the numbers. Then the next question is if people live a more or less normal life, or if all the doors are closed, and all the people are out of work.

From what I do know, I do believe Australia and New Zealand have done a great job in pushing the covid-19 numbers down, in such a way, so that people may live a more or less normal life, more normal than most other people in the world these days.

Are schools open? Are bars and restaurants open? How many percent of the work force is out of work? Are people ready for the vaccine, or is there a lot of vaccine resistance, and covid-19 denial?

Bjornulf

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bv

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Nate
I know we should not discuss politics here but I just wanted to point out that New Zealand is already in 2021.
A great example of what can be achieved with a female leader ><

Nate

New Zealand is doing great by the numbers. Then the next question is if people live a more or less normal life, or if all the doors are closed, and all the people are out of work.

From what I do know, I do believe Australia and New Zealand have done a great job in pushing the covid-19 numbers down, in such a way, so that people may live a more or less normal life, more normal than most other people in the world these days.

Are schools open? Are bars and restaurants open? How many percent of the work force is out of work? Are people ready for the vaccine, or is there a lot of vaccine resistance, and covid-19 denial?

Australia

Life is fairly normal, most shops and services open with modest restrictions. Plenty of toilet paper.

Schools open (mind you it's the summer holidays, but basically open)

Bars & Restaurants open. In several States there are number restrictions, and QR checkin (to allow contact tracing usually mandated.)

Unemployment 6% (from memory). Overall economy out of Recession, but Tourism suffering somewhat.

As there's no imperative need for instant vaccination (unlike USA/UK etc) that's not happening for a couple of months (although there's pressure for front line workers to be done asap). We'll be using several, but the Oxford one most likely as it's made here in Melbourne.

Some, not a lot, of resistance to vaccine. It's not being mandated.

Covid Denial - tiny bit around, but not much. Probably same people who think the Moon Landings were done in Arizona. Very sad.

However.... If I'd written this 3 weeks ago I'd have been optimistic. Sadly there has been an outbreak in Sydney (inevitable, so no major issue there) but the handling by that State's Govt has been galactically incompetent, and it's spreading within that State and has now got to Melbourne as well.

But in the context of (eg) the UK where I read about 53,000 cases yesterday and we're stressing about less than 10 it's a bit odd and I realise that.

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Captain Corella
60 Years a Fan

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CaptainCorella

But in the context of (eg) the UK where I read about 53,000 cases yesterday and we're stressing about less than 10 it's a bit odd and I realise that.

Isn't there a difference because it's currently summer in Australia & New Zealand (20°C sunshine in Sydney & Auckland)? In London (UK) there was today only 1.5°C.

In summer we had in some parts of Germany very few cases but they rose vastly up during fall with the cold weather. Experts in Germany say that the number of cases might go down again at the start of spring with the warmer weather and then the lockdowns could be taken back. -- [www.Sueddeutsche.de] - (in German).

Here in the U.K. the virus is so rampant at the moment that some hospitals are at breaking point and I believe there have been some issues with oxygen supplies over the last few days.Unfortunately it is only going to get worse over the next few weeks as a result of people getting together over Christmas and for New Years party tonight.

I am very fortunate to live in an area where I can leave my house and within five minutes be up in the hills and woods on my mountain bike but other than that I have only left the house twice in the last month to visit the supermarket.
Many people are not so fortunate and are living in high rise buildings with no green space,that must really be a very tough challenge.

I hope next year is much better for everyone and on this day next year people all over the world will really be able to celebrate.

Nate

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Nate
Here in the U.K. the virus is so rampant at the moment that some hospitals are at breaking point and I believe there have been some issues with oxygen supplies over the last few days.Unfortunately it is only going to get worse over the next few weeks as a result of people getting together over Christmas and for New Years party tonight.

I am very fortunate to live in an area where I can leave my house and within five minutes be up in the hills and woods on my mountain bike but other than that I have only left the house twice in the last month to visit the supermarket.
Many people are not so fortunate and are living in high rise buildings with no green space,that must really be a very tough challenge.

I hope next year is much better for everyone and on this day next year people all over the world will really be able to celebrate.

Nate

US is the same. Best to hunker down and stay safe.

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Irix

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CaptainCorella

But in the context of (eg) the UK where I read about 53,000 cases yesterday and we're stressing about less than 10 it's a bit odd and I realise that.

Isn't there a difference because it's currently summer in Australia & New Zealand (20°C sunshine in Sydney & Auckland)? In London (UK) there was today only 1.5°C.

In summer we had in some parts of Germany very few cases but they rose vastly up during fall with the cold weather. Experts in Germany say that the number of cases might go down again at the start of spring with the warmer weather and then the lockdowns could be taken back. -- [www.Sueddeutsche.de] - (in German).

Temperature and seasonal differences clearly don't matter with this virus. In the summer in the US it kept going up.

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Irix

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CaptainCorella

But in the context of (eg) the UK where I read about 53,000 cases yesterday and we're stressing about less than 10 it's a bit odd and I realise that.

Isn't there a difference because it's currently summer in Australia & New Zealand (20°C sunshine in Sydney & Auckland)? In London (UK) there was today only 1.5°C.

In summer we had in some parts of Germany very few cases but they rose vastly up during fall with the cold weather. Experts in Germany say that the number of cases might go down again at the start of spring with the warmer weather and then the lockdowns could be taken back. -- [www.Sueddeutsche.de] - (in German).

Several factors.

Australia and NZ are remote and are able have very strong controls over our borders. Not the only factor, but it helps.

Infections like 'flu and COVID thrive when people are in close contact indoors. It's summer here, so more person to person contact is outside. Not the only factor, but it helps.

Australia and NZ acted very quickly to introduce the border controls. Not the only factor, but it helps.

Australia as a Nation State is huge (almost the same area as the USA excluding Alaska). The overwhelming proportion of the population lives around the coast. That implies that those who live not around the coast are less at risk due to the population densities. The bulk of those who do live around the coast live in a (surprisingly) small number of cities. Those cities are well separated (mostly), so again there's less cross infection. One State - Western Australia (far larger than Texas by the way) has had absolutely no community cases for more than 250 days. Zero. Not the only factor, but it helps.

The State governments in Australia (in effect) took over from the Federal Govt in coordinating and introducing a series of quite serious local restrictions on movement, contacts, densities, etc etc. Not the only factor, but it helps.

With all of this sort of stuff, there's no silver bullet, but we've been lucky with the way (metaphorically) the cards have fallen in the game of numbers that is behind any epidemic.

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Captain Corella
60 Years a Fan

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GasLightStreet

Temperature and seasonal differences clearly don't matter with this virus. In the summer in the US it kept going up.

Due to insufficient measures?

In Germany we have until now 33,071 Covid-deaths while the USA has 344,227. That's 10 times more - and the US-population is almost exactly 4 times as of Germany (83 million vs. 328 million).

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Irix

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GasLightStreet

Temperature and seasonal differences clearly don't matter with this virus. In the summer in the US it kept going up.

Due to insufficient measures?

In Germany we have until now 33,071 Covid-deaths while the USA has 344,227. That's 10 times more - and the US-population is almost exactly 4 times as of Germany (83 million vs. 328 million).

Due to arrogance and ignorance. The weather has nothing to do with it. In the South people are in when it's cold and in when it's hot. Of course there are always people out but majority wise, it's either too hot or too cold. Louisiana just hit 7300 deaths early this week, today it's almost up to 7500.

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GasLightStreet



Temperature and seasonal differences clearly don't matter with this virus.

In Holland it did last summer. Significantly.

If not all then the majority of Europe had a very significant decrease in Covid cases in the summer.People were taking holidays around Europe and socialising with friends without the Covid numbers climbing high enough to warrant further restrictions.
Here in the U.K. in September it started to climb again which was inevitable as although the weather was still ok it was time for the schools to start their new year and since then it has simply kept increasing.

Nate

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Nate
If not all then the majority of Europe had a very significant decrease in Covid cases in the summer.People were taking holidays around Europe and socialising with friends without the Covid numbers climbing high enough to warrant further restrictions.
Here in the U.K. in September it started to climb again which was inevitable as although the weather was still ok it was time for the schools to start their new year and since then it has simply kept increasing.

Nate

Correct Sir, in Holland almost everything is closed, still the amount of covid cases is increasing rapidly. How come?

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TheflyingDutchman

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Nate
If not all then the majority of Europe had a very significant decrease in Covid cases in the summer.People were taking holidays around Europe and socialising with friends without the Covid numbers climbing high enough to warrant further restrictions.
Here in the U.K. in September it started to climb again which was inevitable as although the weather was still ok it was time for the schools to start their new year and since then it has simply kept increasing.

Nate

Correct Sir, in Holland almost everything is closed, still the amount of covid cases is increasing rapidly. How come?

People are meeting in small groups. One is infected who infects the others. One of them meets another small group and infects a few of them, rinse repeat.

Like GLS I also think, different from the “standard” flu virusses, the corona virus feels at home in both warm and cold circumstances.
In different countries the number of infections went down primairily thanks to lockdown and alike actions. However due to the misbehavior/ignorance of many during the summer COVID-19 could spread almost invisibly as to surface in larger numbers even before the summer was over. Clearly different from the “ordinary” flu viruses.

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georgie48

the corona virus feels at home in both warm and cold circumstances

From a symposium of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) - "Climatological, Meteorological and Environmental factors in the COVID-19 pandemic", 4-6 August 2020 - [Public.WMO.int] :

"Current peer-reviewed publications on the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the COVID-19 disease do not show a robust and consistent response to temperature, humidity, wind, solar radiation, nor other proposed meteorological and environmental drivers. Some evidence exists suggests that regulated indoor environmental conditions, in concert with behavioural factors, indirectly modulates localized spread of the virus. More research is needed on which climatic variables are most critical for understanding the likelihood of their influence and for disease risk reduction."

"The seasonality of COVID-19 has yet to be established as seasonal signals are difficult to distinguish at this early phase in the pandemic. Experience from other respiratory viruses suggests that a seasonal signal might emerge later as the disease becomes endemic." - [Public.WMO.int] .



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021-01-01 12:10 by Irix.

for the spread of the virus the difference between winter and summer is not temperatures nor wind nor sunshine etc. but human behavior.
In summer people spend more time outside where social distancing is somehow easier and where aerosols get blown away instead of concentrating as in closed rooms.

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Irix

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georgie48

the corona virus feels at home in both warm and cold circumstances

From a symposium of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) - "Climatological, Meteorological and Environmental factors in the COVID-19 pandemic", 4-6 August 2020 - [Public.WMO.int] :

"Current peer-reviewed publications on the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the COVID-19 disease do not show a robust and consistent response to temperature, humidity, wind, solar radiation, nor other proposed meteorological and environmental drivers. Some evidence exists suggests that regulated indoor environmental conditions, in concert with behavioural factors, indirectly modulates localized spread of the virus. More research is needed on which climatic variables are most critical for understanding the likelihood of their influence and for disease risk reduction."

"The seasonality of COVID-19 has yet to be established as seasonal signals are difficult to distinguish at this early phase in the pandemic. Experience from other respiratory viruses suggests that a seasonal signal might emerge later as the disease becomes endemic." - [Public.WMO.int] .

Thanks Irix! My "feeling" is based on checking what happened in all the different countries last year. With my analytical chemical research background I pretend to still be able to draw some (personal ) conclusions
The pattern of the virus was pretty similar in both "warm" countries and "cold" countries. The "shape" of corona type viruses is different from the "ordinary" flu viruses, which could have a big impact on its distribution both inside and outside the body.
During a serious influenza explosion in the past the, both professional and sensational media have not asked attention from the masses that comes even close to the attention Covid-19 has been given. People therefore were far more easy going in connection with influenza. Still influenza explosions are very different from this corona explosion (as with SARS and MERS, both corona's). Continuing professional research over time may proof me wrong, though
So far they talk about "might", just like with the Big Bang theory ...
(You got it ... I don't support the Big Bang theory )

This was the timeline of new COVID-19 cases in 2020 -- Australia vs. Central Europe vs. United States:



Source: Google - "Covid cases map".

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Irix

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georgie48

the corona virus feels at home in both warm and cold circumstances

From a symposium of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) - "Climatological, Meteorological and Environmental factors in the COVID-19 pandemic", 4-6 August 2020 - [Public.WMO.int] :

"Current peer-reviewed publications on the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the COVID-19 disease do not show a robust and consistent response to temperature, humidity, wind, solar radiation, nor other proposed meteorological and environmental drivers. Some evidence exists suggests that regulated indoor environmental conditions, in concert with behavioural factors, indirectly modulates localized spread of the virus. More research is needed on which climatic variables are most critical for understanding the likelihood of their influence and for disease risk reduction."

"The seasonality of COVID-19 has yet to be established as seasonal signals are difficult to distinguish at this early phase in the pandemic. Experience from other respiratory viruses suggests that a seasonal signal might emerge later as the disease becomes endemic." - [Public.WMO.int] .

this statement is from early August – we aren't in an "early phase" of the pandemic anymore…

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Irix
This was the timeline of new COVID-19 cases in 2020 -- Australia vs. Central Europe vs. United States:



Source: Google - "Covid cases map".

Obviously seasonal factors must have played a part, but the main driver of the increase in cases in Australia in (our) winter wasn't the fact that it was winter (and not summer) but the fact that the virus had been largely suppressed (by the end of April) very quickly (see my earlier posts for the reasons) but because it escaped from quarantine and was seeded and multiplied in the community.

A genuine winter growth would have been national and larger. That spike was local (mainly Melbourne only) and (compared to everywhere else) smaller.

ie It didn't come from community transmission within a population that already had carriers in it.

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Captain Corella
60 Years a Fan

KUDOS....to New Zealand and Australia....their Covid 19 responses have been nothing short of magnificent. In the USA we are struggling. So unfortunate and unnecessary. The distribution of the vaccines is a mess. We just don't have the infrastructure to support. We saw this when the Federal government did not support with PPE last spring, and we are seeing it again now with the slower than expected vaccine distribution/implementation.

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slewan

this statement is from early August – we aren't in an "early phase" of the pandemic anymore…

The WMO had clearly stated that more research is needed - but it looks like there're currently no new reliable data (maybe still in the works).

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Rip This
KUDOS....to New Zealand and Australia....their Covid 19 responses have been nothing short of magnificent. In the USA we are struggling. So unfortunate and unnecessary. The distribution of the vaccines is a mess. We just don't have the infrastructure to support. We saw this when the Federal government did not support with PPE last spring, and we are seeing it again now with the slower than expected vaccine distribution/implementation.

That’s why it is called Operation Warpspeed...

If there's one country in the world that should be taken as an example of how not to handle the pandemic, that country is Brazil.

We ended 2020 with almost 200,000 deaths, but BBC reports that those numbers might be underreported and that the real number is 50% more than that.

As if the situation wasn't already bad, we don't have yet a vaccine approved. To make things even worse, we couldn't secure enough syringes and we don't even have a clear date of when the vaccination will start.

There are many other details related to the pandemic that are going VERY wrong here but I can't talk about it without getting into politics, so I'll just leave it at that. Did I hear Happy New Year?

BBC (in Portuguese. English version here): There are at least 50% more deaths from covid-19 in Brazil than official data indicate, experts calculate

Reuters: Brazil fails to secure syringes for COVID-19 vaccine jabs

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Irix

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slewan

this statement is from early August – we aren't in an "early phase" of the pandemic anymore…

The WMO had clearly stated that more research is needed - but it looks like there're currently no new reliable data (maybe still in the works).

right, but as the graphs you posted above indicate: there's an obvious correlation between the number of infections and the seasons.
As I mentioned before: The most important variable is human behavior which tends to be different in summer and winter.

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Koen

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Rip This
KUDOS....to New Zealand and Australia....their Covid 19 responses have been nothing short of magnificent. In the USA we are struggling. So unfortunate and unnecessary. The distribution of the vaccines is a mess. We just don't have the infrastructure to support. We saw this when the Federal government did not support with PPE last spring, and we are seeing it again now with the slower than expected vaccine distribution/implementation.

That’s why it is called Operation Warpspeed...

where's the warp?

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Rip This

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Koen

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Rip This
KUDOS....to New Zealand and Australia....their Covid 19 responses have been nothing short of magnificent. In the USA we are struggling. So unfortunate and unnecessary. The distribution of the vaccines is a mess. We just don't have the infrastructure to support. We saw this when the Federal government did not support with PPE last spring, and we are seeing it again now with the slower than expected vaccine distribution/implementation.

That’s why it is called Operation Warpspeed...

where's the warp?

Exactly

Another timeline of 2020 COVID-19 cases by the Johns-Hopkins-University:

[Coronavirus.JHU.edu]

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Koen

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Rip This

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Koen

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Rip This
KUDOS....to New Zealand and Australia....their Covid 19 responses have been nothing short of magnificent. In the USA we are struggling. So unfortunate and unnecessary. The distribution of the vaccines is a mess. We just don't have the infrastructure to support. We saw this when the Federal government did not support with PPE last spring, and we are seeing it again now with the slower than expected vaccine distribution/implementation.

That’s why it is called Operation Warpspeed...

where's the warp?

Exactly

Where's the warp? You haven't figured that out yet? I'll give ya a little hint: it's inside a noggin that ain't wired right.

That's probably as non-political/not naming anyone/no Crayola color as I can get it.

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TheflyingDutchman

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GasLightStreet



Temperature and seasonal differences clearly don't matter with this virus.

In Holland it did last summer. Significantly.

Don't think the behavior people in one area sums up an overallness regarding climate. The entirely fake news about the heat killing the virus was just that.