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skytrench
Most scary is what restrictions will be implemented and for how long. The leaders don't want to take risks with the hospital capacities in case of a surge, but how many of them have actually used the past year to invest in an increased ICU capacity for their people? Money well spent, if society's wheels can be kept turning.

so hang on...you're suggesting it's BETTER to simply increase ICU capacity instead of doing a lockdown?

Better to fill up the hospitals and keep the restaurants and bars open?

Wow, OK.

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NICOS
Last week we got our new corona rules.......

Infection went down from 20.005 to 15.202 per day.
Infected people in Hospitals went down 18,4 %
Infected people on IC's went down 8,6 %

And today they decide for a total lock down ?????? I'm lost

ummm...because it's working and it'll be over faster if you apply more near term pressure?

Increasing ICU capacity is mentioned by some as a great solution to keep on with party and no restrictions. They do not understand the mathematics of the exponential spread. If the R=5, there will be 5x number of cases every 3-6 days. 100,000 x 5 x 5 x 5 x 5 x 5 = a very large number, no quantities of ICU numbers will be able to cope with a real R=5 kind of wave out of control. Health services will break down completely.

If covid-19 is out of control, there are absolutely no numbers of ICU units that will be able to cope with the number of critically ill people who will show up at the hospitals during a short time frame.

Norway have 600 ICU units for a population of 5 million people. We may have 600 extra if absolutely all other surgery is halted, but you can not stop cancer surgery, heart surgery, hip surgery and all other critical work in a day to day hospital operation. Also, it takes three - 3 - years to educate ICU workers. Further, covid-19 patients are extremely resource demanding, they need 3-4 workers i.e. nurses to turn them around every hour or so, they need oxygen, and many are hospitalized for weeks.

The cheap protection is for everyone to keep a distance, to wear a mask, and to keep the number of close contacts to a minimum during the waves. The hard protection, if people do not care about the cheap solutions, is some sort of lock down.

Omicron will get to everyone health experts say, it is just a matter of time. Those who succeed in slowing down omicron by say a few months, while doing the booster shots to most of their adults, will avoid a winter nightmare the next two months.

Bjornulf



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 2021-12-19 22:25 by bv.

Been reading lots of US headlines about omicron the last few days with terms like "blizzard"..."tidal wave"...and earlier today "tsunami"...
Needless to say a heavy storm is brewing and is already wreaking havoc - stay safe everyone.

_____________________________________________________________
Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......

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treaclefingers

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skytrench
Most scary is what restrictions will be implemented and for how long. The leaders don't want to take risks with the hospital capacities in case of a surge, but how many of them have actually used the past year to invest in an increased ICU capacity for their people? Money well spent, if society's wheels can be kept turning.

so hang on...you're suggesting it's BETTER to simply increase ICU capacity instead of doing a lockdown?

Better to fill up the hospitals and keep the restaurants and bars open?

Wow, OK.

Of course it’s better to increase ICU capacity than shut down society.Why should people have their lives restricted in this manner because of a lack of investment in healthcare.If authorities don’t stop these lockdowns soon there will not be a healthcare system at all.Where do you think the money comes from to fund healthcare in the first place.

Nate

THE AUSTRALIAN --- 20 December 2021



ROCKMAN

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Nate

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treaclefingers

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skytrench
Most scary is what restrictions will be implemented and for how long. The leaders don't want to take risks with the hospital capacities in case of a surge, but how many of them have actually used the past year to invest in an increased ICU capacity for their people? Money well spent, if society's wheels can be kept turning.

so hang on...you're suggesting it's BETTER to simply increase ICU capacity instead of doing a lockdown?

Better to fill up the hospitals and keep the restaurants and bars open?

Wow, OK.

Of course it’s better to increase ICU capacity than shut down society.Why should people have their lives restricted in this manner because of a lack of investment in healthcare.If authorities don’t stop these lockdowns soon there will not be a healthcare system at all.Where do you think the money comes from to fund healthcare in the first place.

Nate

So how do you plan to quadruple ICU capacity during the next 4-8 weeks? There is a major staffing problem, not just in health, but also in general.

Norway is one of the countries with a major new wave now, they are reporting on entire surgery units closed down to handle covid-19 only, I don't think people with dreams about unlimited ICU capacity do understand how hospitals work.

Bjornulf

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bv

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Nate

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treaclefingers

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skytrench
Most scary is what restrictions will be implemented and for how long. The leaders don't want to take risks with the hospital capacities in case of a surge, but how many of them have actually used the past year to invest in an increased ICU capacity for their people? Money well spent, if society's wheels can be kept turning.

so hang on...you're suggesting it's BETTER to simply increase ICU capacity instead of doing a lockdown?

Better to fill up the hospitals and keep the restaurants and bars open?

Wow, OK.

Of course it’s better to increase ICU capacity than shut down society.Why should people have their lives restricted in this manner because of a lack of investment in healthcare.If authorities don’t stop these lockdowns soon there will not be a healthcare system at all.Where do you think the money comes from to fund healthcare in the first place.

Nate

So how do you plan to quadruple ICU capacity during the next 4-8 weeks? There is a major staffing problem, not just in health, but also in general.

Norway is one of the countries with a major new wave now, they are reporting on entire surgery units closed down to handle covid-19 only, I don't think people with dreams about unlimited ICU capacity do understand how hospitals work.

PLUS

Even assuming you could ramp up that quickly (which clearly you could not, how do you increase the number of doctors and nurses in that time frame?), what you'd have after the pandemic is over is an overcapacity of hospitals resulting in overspending and deficits that wouldn't be sustainable resulting in layoffs.

But yeah, you'll prefer all that to shutting down your local watering hole for a couple of weeks.

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treaclefingers

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skytrench
Most scary is what restrictions will be implemented and for how long. The leaders don't want to take risks with the hospital capacities in case of a surge, but how many of them have actually used the past year to invest in an increased ICU capacity for their people? Money well spent, if society's wheels can be kept turning.

so hang on...you're suggesting it's BETTER to simply increase ICU capacity instead of doing a lockdown?

Better to fill up the hospitals and keep the restaurants and bars open?

Wow, OK.

It would be logical to have increased the available ICU capacity in response to the possible threat. What countries have actually done so? Lockdowns don't need to be so severe if the hospital capacity is not reached. The costs of more ICUs could be a good investment, instead of closing businesses and supporting them through public funds. Lockdowns keep the situation dragging on.

It's not either one or the other, black or white, but a workable compromise.

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bv

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Nate

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treaclefingers

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skytrench
Most scary is what restrictions will be implemented and for how long. The leaders don't want to take risks with the hospital capacities in case of a surge, but how many of them have actually used the past year to invest in an increased ICU capacity for their people? Money well spent, if society's wheels can be kept turning.

so hang on...you're suggesting it's BETTER to simply increase ICU capacity instead of doing a lockdown?

Better to fill up the hospitals and keep the restaurants and bars open?

Wow, OK.

Of course it’s better to increase ICU capacity than shut down society.Why should people have their lives restricted in this manner because of a lack of investment in healthcare.If authorities don’t stop these lockdowns soon there will not be a healthcare system at all.Where do you think the money comes from to fund healthcare in the first place.

Nate

So how do you plan to quadruple ICU capacity during the next 4-8 weeks? There is a major staffing problem, not just in health, but also in general.

Norway is one of the countries with a major new wave now, they are reporting on entire surgery units closed down to handle covid-19 only, I don't think people with dreams about unlimited ICU capacity do understand how hospitals work.

Of course it’s unrealistic to expect an increase in capacity in time to deal with the current situation.I am talking about longer term investment so this kind of situation does not have to occur in the first place.So much money is wasted in other areas of government spending that could be used to build new hospitals and train people to work in them whilst paying them what they deserve.

Nate

Bjornulf is correct in stating above that it takes some years to train ICU staff, for the most part nurses. When ICUs became swamped here, doctors from others areas in the hospitals (i.e. nephrology, ophthalmology etc) were reassigned to ICUs. They had to shadow the nurses, of course, who directed their patient care, because you can’t just swing into ICU without a lot of experience. It helped the nurses cope, it did little to improve their morale as the doctors they were leading around by the hand were paid vastly more. Nurses salaries haven’t kept pace over the last few decades or so, and about 30% are looking to leave the profession because of the stress of COVId combined with relatively lousy pay and not enough public support. You can’t fill the gap with new nurses when experienced nurses leave, the learning curve is too steep. So increasing ICU capacity is damn complicated. It’s like the old saying…everything is easy when you don’t know what you’re talking about.

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skytrench

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treaclefingers

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skytrench
Most scary is what restrictions will be implemented and for how long. The leaders don't want to take risks with the hospital capacities in case of a surge, but how many of them have actually used the past year to invest in an increased ICU capacity for their people? Money well spent, if society's wheels can be kept turning.

so hang on...you're suggesting it's BETTER to simply increase ICU capacity instead of doing a lockdown?

Better to fill up the hospitals and keep the restaurants and bars open?

Wow, OK.

It would be logical to have increased the available ICU capacity in response to the possible threat. What countries have actually done so? Lockdowns don't need to be so severe if the hospital capacity is not reached. The costs of more ICUs could be a good investment, instead of closing businesses and supporting them through public funds. Lockdowns keep the situation dragging on.

It's not either one or the other, black or white, but a workable compromise.

So, to restate the obvious, where do you get the human resources to fill new facilities (or for that matter, get new facilities) to resolve this quickly. How long does it take to train a doctor? A nurse?

Focusing on a long term solution is fine, but that doesn't help you with the short term. Strategic thinking is great (if in fact your idea is the best, which I'm not sure it even is) but you're applying that to a tactical problem and it won't resolve things immediately.

So what do you do? Buy doctors from other countries, leaving them without doctors?

You haven't provided a resolution of the issue.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021-12-20 01:06 by treaclefingers.

If I could have resolved the issue, I would not be sitting here discussing :-)

Good points, TorontoGirl and treaclefingers. That does not rule out that ICU capacity increases are unreachable, a year ago the demand was already visible.
There is also an old saying...where there is a will there is a way.

Higher taxes for the ultra wealthy in the UK might help for a start.
Effective border controls as well.
Time to draw a line in the sand and move forward.The infringements of personal liberties is beyond the pale.Unless your in Downing Street where the rules are not applicable.Many folk in the UK are reluctant to wear face masks and carry passes because they know that the folk who are introducing these mandates are above such things.

THE AGE --- 20 December 2021



ROCKMAN

What a lot of people are not realising about these lockdowns is that they may have had a significant impact when Covid first kicked off but as time goes on less and less people are prepared to tolerate them.If you shut bars,restaurants etc then people will just meet in private houses even if the law says you can’t.
Here in the U.K. it’s looking very likely that things may get shut down again if not before Christmas then certainly in the days after but many people here now look at the people in charge as a bunch of lying hypocritical clowns and simply won’t comply with restrictions imposed by them anymore.

Nate

Spot on there Nate.And those people have every reason to think that way.
If lockdown comes it will be short,to give the impression that something is been done.The bottom line in the UK is the economy not folks health or wellbeing.The Government won’t want to fund more stay afloat schemes to businesses.Wealth not health.

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mtaylor
Drink a lot - it kills the virus. Best medicine.

It's called "Slockdown" in Dutch.

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stargroover
Spot on there Nate.And those people have every reason to think that way.
If lockdown comes it will be short,to give the impression that something is been done.The bottom line in the UK is the economy not folks health or wellbeing.The Government won’t want to fund more stay afloat schemes to businesses.Wealth not health.

Clapton essentially said the same and got pilloried by the Branch Covidians on this site.

Probably Daily Mail readers terraplane

Jürgen Klopp cites "constant threat" as vaccine status affects Liverpool transfer plans (Mirror)

Liverpool's manager says the Reds will not sign unvaccinated players next month as they represent a huge threat to the rest of their teammates, with the Reds squad all double-jabbed.

Earlier this week, the Reds boss revealed that everyone working at the club’s Kirkby training base – including players – had been double-jabbed, and also intended to receive a booster.

And, with Covid cases on the rise across the UK due to Omicron, Klopp has no intention of allowing an unvaccinated player into Liverpool ’s bubble.

He said: “We are not close to signing a player but, yes, it would be influential, definitely.

“If a player is not vaccinated at all, he is a constant threat for all of us. He doesn’t want to be a threat, of course, it is not that he thinks, ‘Oh my God, I don’t care about the others,’ but he is and we have to find different scenarios.

“He has to change in a different dressing room, he has to eat in a different dining room, he has to sit in a different bus, he has to drive in a different car.

Bjornulf

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Rockman


THE AGE --- 20 December 2021

Finally an actual study. I was feeling good reading it until the last paragraph.

Masking up do work, as shown in the graph below.

We lived with no rules in Norway from the pandemic "was declared over", in September. Then the curves and the spread of the virus just boomed. On December 7 i.e. two weeks ago there was declared a nationwide mask recommendation in Norway when in shops, restaurants and public transportation. Now we see the first week of lower numbers.

Then the 2nd lock down measures banning alcohol in bars and restaurants were in place Dec 13, and schools closed early for Christmas Dec 16 in our area, Oslo area. Hopefully the curves will be bending further down from now on.

The graph below is related Asker, where I live (90,000 people), and Bærum (130,000 people), the two closest municipalities to capital city Oslo. Some school classes have had more than 50% covid-19, others have had 25% of staff i.e. teachers at home sick. Parents are asked to keep their children at home, but they do still send their children to kindergarten, where covid-19 is spreading fast.

Our local hospital "Bærum Sykehus" had 14 covid-19 patients on Friday, one covid-19 death Sunday, one covid-19 death Monday, and now the number is 18, so technically quite an increase just over the week-end.

Hanging out in bars and restaurants is not a good idea, knowing that 70 of 100 people at the famous Christmas party in Oslo two weeks ago got infected. Currently we have two virus variants, spreading fast, both Delta and Omicron.

The graph is showing weekly covid-19 numbers from week 10 until week 50 this year.



Bjornulf



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021-12-20 16:52 by bv.

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Nate

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yorkshirestone
I could ask you the same question. ‘Everything points to it being the best news of the pandemic’ is a laughably childish viewpoint and totally unevidenced. Basic maths - higher transmissibility, more cases, more hospitalisations, more health system pressure ( in mid January, a time when the nhs is usually at maximum capacity anyway). But hey, let anyone with waning vaccine immunity, other health issues etc just get it - that’s a humane solution. Btw if you looked at the evidence (which you clearly haven’t) the proportion of critical care beds in the uk should factor in to your thinking, far less per 100k population than Germany, etc. Assume you’re happy to see friends, family and neighbours treated in tents in hospital car parks- most of us (thankfully) wouldn’t be

The evidence so far suggests omicron is a mild infection.There is no emergency the situation is nowhere near what it was when Covid got going in Europe and people were dying in hospital corridors in Italy due to lack of beds.I have known about 20 members of family and friends who have had Covid in the last month none of which even required a visit to the doctors let alone the emergency ward.

The fact is that Covid is a mild illness for the vast majority of infected individuals who at worst will be sat at home feeling a little rough for a few days.It is time to hand back freedoms to people that have been stolen and if that means that some people have to sacrifice a further year or two of life playing bingo in a care home then so be it.

Nate

Omicron seems clearly to be a mild variant, just based on people I know ... Shutdowns are insane and masks are pointless (crazy to me to see some come into a pub or restaurant w/ their masks on, then take them off to drink / eat).

Luckily we had our office party this past Sat. night, all of my team attended except 1 (he has health issues, we all totally understand!) -- nothing would have stopped it, if they shut down, we would have just met at someone's house instead.

It seems obvious there are going to continue to be variants, like I've said before, you don't live forever, are people really going to let this control the rest of their lives? Crazy.

Twice now I have seen once in Mexico City earlier this year and again in Paris just the other day the ridiculous sight of a couple attempting a kiss whilst both wearing masks.

Nate

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LeonidP

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Nate

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yorkshirestone
I could ask you the same question. ‘Everything points to it being the best news of the pandemic’ is a laughably childish viewpoint and totally unevidenced. Basic maths - higher transmissibility, more cases, more hospitalisations, more health system pressure ( in mid January, a time when the nhs is usually at maximum capacity anyway). But hey, let anyone with waning vaccine immunity, other health issues etc just get it - that’s a humane solution. Btw if you looked at the evidence (which you clearly haven’t) the proportion of critical care beds in the uk should factor in to your thinking, far less per 100k population than Germany, etc. Assume you’re happy to see friends, family and neighbours treated in tents in hospital car parks- most of us (thankfully) wouldn’t be

The evidence so far suggests omicron is a mild infection.There is no emergency the situation is nowhere near what it was when Covid got going in Europe and people were dying in hospital corridors in Italy due to lack of beds.I have known about 20 members of family and friends who have had Covid in the last month none of which even required a visit to the doctors let alone the emergency ward.

The fact is that Covid is a mild illness for the vast majority of infected individuals who at worst will be sat at home feeling a little rough for a few days.It is time to hand back freedoms to people that have been stolen and if that means that some people have to sacrifice a further year or two of life playing bingo in a care home then so be it.

Nate

Omicron seems clearly to be a mild variant, just based on people I know ... Shutdowns are insane and masks are pointless (crazy to me to see some come into a pub or restaurant w/ their masks on, then take them off to drink / eat).

Luckily we had our office party this past Sat. night, all of my team attended except 1 (he has health issues, we all totally understand!) -- nothing would have stopped it, if they shut down, we would have just met at someone's house instead.

It seems obvious there are going to continue to be variants, like I've said before, you don't live forever, are people really going to let this control the rest of their lives? Crazy.

Big problem is that this virus spreads very fast. If you open up everything our entire society will be out of order within a few weeks, it will lead to complete anarchy. As long as poor countries cannot give the vaccine, covid keeps spreading all over the world. Unless we do it the hard way: stop giving vaccines globally and let mother nature do the dirty work. That's hardly an option. The middle ages are over.

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Nate
Twice now I have seen once in Mexico City earlier this year and again in Paris just the other day the ridiculous sight of a couple attempting a kiss whilst both wearing masks.

Nate

Happens all the time between my wife and I when out and about - you can tend to forget your wearing a mask, and a quick kiss hello or goodbye leads to an awkward/humorous situation.

_____________________________________________________________
Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021-12-20 20:41 by Hairball.

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Nate

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treaclefingers

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skytrench
Most scary is what restrictions will be implemented and for how long. The leaders don't want to take risks with the hospital capacities in case of a surge, but how many of them have actually used the past year to invest in an increased ICU capacity for their people? Money well spent, if society's wheels can be kept turning.

so hang on...you're suggesting it's BETTER to simply increase ICU capacity instead of doing a lockdown?

Better to fill up the hospitals and keep the restaurants and bars open?

Wow, OK.

Of course it’s better to increase ICU capacity than shut down society.Why should people have their lives restricted in this manner because of a lack of investment in healthcare.If authorities don’t stop these lockdowns soon there will not be a healthcare system at all.Where do you think the money comes from to fund healthcare in the first place.

Nate

To handle omicron ICU capacity will need to increase by a fact or 3, 5, 10, 20? Who is going to staff the ICU's, how is going a hospital going to increase their number of beds by 5 times? You just are against any precautions like lockdowns or masks.

If authorities do nothing the healthcare system collapses. Temporary, short term lockdowns will not destroy the healthcare system. Obviously you do not understand math, public health or economics.

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daspyknows

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Nate

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treaclefingers

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skytrench
Most scary is what restrictions will be implemented and for how long. The leaders don't want to take risks with the hospital capacities in case of a surge, but how many of them have actually used the past year to invest in an increased ICU capacity for their people? Money well spent, if society's wheels can be kept turning.

so hang on...you're suggesting it's BETTER to simply increase ICU capacity instead of doing a lockdown?

Better to fill up the hospitals and keep the restaurants and bars open?

Wow, OK.

Of course it’s better to increase ICU capacity than shut down society.Why should people have their lives restricted in this manner because of a lack of investment in healthcare.If authorities don’t stop these lockdowns soon there will not be a healthcare system at all.Where do you think the money comes from to fund healthcare in the first place.

Nate

To handle omicron ICU capacity will need to increase by a fact or 3, 5, 10, 20? Who is going to staff the ICU's, how is going a hospital going to increase their number of beds by 5 times? You just are against any precautions like lockdowns or masks.

If authorities do nothing the healthcare system collapses. Temporary, short term lockdowns will not destroy the healthcare system. Obviously you do not understand math, public health or economics.

Obviously you haven't read or have chosen to ignore what else I wrote about increasing hospital capacity.

I think you need professional help to get over your covid experience it seems to have left you in constant fear of the virus.

Nate