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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Date: May 5, 2020 03:30

Quote
jumpontopofmebaby
Quote
Stoneage
I hear you, Jump. But he didn't do that a week ago. Instead he praised China's leader. Seems like he's flip-flopping a bit, wouldn't you say?

I think it was several weeks ago. I think

Yes originally he did stand up for them. Saying they were proud and embarrassed But when we started to figure out they were stock piling PPE etc. And learned more as to how they did their best to hide this from the world. Then yes. He called a spade a spade and won’t mix his words

Same with the WHO. It appears they also down played it when they knew it was very serious. He cut their funding. They’re fired ! Kinda. I get it and that’s the way it should be until they can justify their actions or non actions

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: cmc ()
Date: May 5, 2020 04:37

From The NY Times:
“As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths over the next several weeks. The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double the current number of about 1,750.”

In my opinion, it sounds like the administration has decided 3k deaths per day is an acceptable number in order to get the country open.
Provided the information is accurate of course.

[news.google.com]

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: CaptainCorella ()
Date: May 5, 2020 04:52

Quote
cmc
From The NY Times:
“As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths over the next several weeks. The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double the current number of about 1,750.”

In my opinion, it sounds like the administration has decided 3k deaths per day is an acceptable number in order to get the country open.
Provided the information is accurate of course.

[news.google.com]

In terms of accuracy and leaked documents, then unless you have seen the leaked document you can't be sure.

But it seems the right ball park prediction. If you're getting 2,000 a day under shutdown, with shutdown gone, then 3,000 would be at the low end expectation.

It's an equation that President Trump apparently accepts, as do the people seen in the streets and offices calling for a change.

--
Captain Corella
50+ Years a Fan

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: WelshEdge1 ()
Date: May 5, 2020 05:16

US family 'murdered shop guard for enforcing mask policy'

[twitter.com]

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: daspyknows ()
Date: May 5, 2020 07:04

Quote
jumpontopofmebaby
Quote
bv
The virus will not ebb out. We get a break now, but history is telling that pandemics come in waves. The next waves might hit harder.

The 1918 pandemic (a.k.a. the Spanish flu) should be understood by every single leader in the world. I bet it is one of the first topics in basic virology classes.

1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics (CDC USA)

The Deadliest Flu: The Complete Story of the Discovery and Reconstruction of the 1918 Pandemic Virus (CDC USA)

In the 1918–1919 pandemic, a first or spring wave began in March 1918 and spread unevenly through the United States, Europe, and possibly Asia over the next 6 months. Illness rates were high, but death rates in most locales were not appreciably above normal.

A second or fall wave spread globally from September to November 1918 and was highly fatal. In many nations, a third wave occurred in early 1919.

In retrospect, even the rapid progressions from uncomplicated influenza infections to fatal pneumonia, a hallmark of the 1918–1919 fall and winter waves, had been noted in the relatively few severe spring wave cases. The differences between the waves thus seemed to be primarily in the much higher frequency of complicated, severe, and fatal cases in the last 2 waves.



It is safe to assume that round 2 is coming in the fall. But I think it is also safe to assume round 2 will not be nearly as bad as the first round was this time. This is not 1918 or whenever This is 2020. We are far more advanced and will be and are far more prepared than we were when this virus started.

Time to get back to life and quit looking at everything to be the worst case.

At least in the US round 2 will hit in the next few weeks. CDC internal docs are predicting 3,000 daily deaths by end of May. This is the effect of opening up. Now the model predicting 130K deaths by August.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: daspyknows ()
Date: May 5, 2020 07:06

Quote
bv
Is Las Vegas really opening up? How are people supposed to get there? Driving their own cars? Or going through airports and airplanes?

Are really people willing to expose themselves to the virus these days? Just for entertainment? I mean you have to go to the grocery store for food, and you have to go to work, and you have to visit your parents and your friends, but you don't have to sit in with a slot machine in Las Vegas.

Based upon the behavior of many Americans the answer is yes. If Vegas opens lots of folks will drive from surrounding states.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: MAF ()
Date: May 5, 2020 10:48

A new study about a Corona hot spot in Germany: "Infection fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a German community with a super-spreading event"

A few results:
- about 20% of infected people without any symptoms
- the number of infected cases in Germany might be ten times higher than the number of registered cases
- infection fatality rate 0,37%

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: doitywoik ()
Date: May 5, 2020 13:36

New study from Austria:

After testing people from 27 hot spot/high risk places (mainly villages/towns in Tyrol and Upper Austria) for antibodies only 4,71% were found to have antibodies. Needless to say, these were people that had not been diagnosed with Covid19 earlier nor did they have an active infection at the time of testing (April 21-24).

The dark figure of undetected infections in high risk areas is averaged at max. 0,75%, in the rest of the country the dark figure shrunk to 0,15% (from ~0,3% a few weeks back).

Critics said the samples (around 1500 people each) were too small to be fully signifiant.

At any rate, all agree that only ~4,71% of the population in those hot spot areas (i.e. 1900 people out of 40.000) with antibodies two months after the first detected case of infection is bad news for herd immunity. The figure is nowhere near the circulating estimates of up to 40%.

What the figures also seem to indicate, though, is that timely lockdown measures prevent a larger spread of the disease. We had merely two weeks from the first detected case (Feb 26) to the beginning of lockdown measures (March 9).

There will certainly be some discussion of the data in the coming days, and a third cross-sectional study is being prepared.

Presentation of the data on prime time news (most likely geo-blocked): [tvthek.orf.at]

Comments, explanation of testing procedures etc. in bigger national newspapers:
[www.wienerzeitung.at]
[www.derstandard.at]
[www.diepresse.com]
[kurier.at]

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: curt ()
Date: May 5, 2020 14:18

Quote
WelshEdge1
US family 'murdered shop guard for enforcing mask policy'

[twitter.com]

Michigan security guard shot, killed after asking customer to cover face.

News article

Screen shot of a twitter account posting:


Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: CaptainCorella ()
Date: May 5, 2020 14:32

The Guardian newspaper is now reporting that a revision of reported deaths in the UK, to include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland (the correct definition of the UK), takes the total there to more than 32,000

[www.theguardian.com]

I'm deeply deeply shocked at that, and more than a little upset.

--
Captain Corella
50+ Years a Fan

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: WelshEdge1 ()
Date: May 5, 2020 15:07

Quote
CaptainCorella
The Guardian newspaper is now reporting that a revision of reported deaths in the UK, to include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland (the correct definition of the UK), takes the total there to more than 32,000

[www.theguardian.com]

I'm deeply deeply shocked at that, and more than a little upset.

The FT has been reporting well over 40k for the past 2 weeks?

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: MisterDDDD ()
Date: May 5, 2020 16:16

Where cases are still rising

"Most countries with severe coronavirus outbreaks have come well down from their peak in new cases each day. It’s happened in Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Turkey and, if you believe the official numbers, China.
But it has not happened in the United States. Here, the number of both confirmed new cases and deaths has fallen only slightly in the last few weeks. Every day since April 2, there have been at least 22,000 new cases and 1,000 deaths.
Now, with many states preparing to reopen their economies, the toll is likely to start rising again, according to a private Trump administration forecast obtained by The Times. It projected about 3,000 deaths per day on June 1.
Why has the United States failed to bring down its caseload as much as most other countries?

The answer isn’t completely clear, given the complexity of the virus. But the leading suspect, many experts say, is the uneven nature of the U.S. response — like the shortage of tests so far and the mixed approach to social distancing.



[www.nytimes.com]

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: grzegorz67 ()
Date: May 5, 2020 16:50

Quote
CaptainCorella
The Guardian newspaper is now reporting that a revision of reported deaths in the UK, to include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland (the correct definition of the UK), takes the total there to more than 32,000

[www.theguardian.com]

I'm deeply deeply shocked at that, and more than a little upset.

Me too, as a native and resident. I believe you’re a Londoner based in Oz, where cases have been far fewer and good on them. I have a cousin in Port MacQuarrie. They keep changing the basis of reporting here which usually means a retrospective big increase. It’s very difficult to make valid comparisons between countries because it seems that no 2 countries are counting COVID fatalities the same way.

As for the U.K., I regularly see articles referring to England, Britain & the U.K. as if they’re interchangeable terms when in fact they are 3 different things! As a Scot I find it irritating.

Back on point, the virus grew like wildfire in London initially and had 1/3 of all U.K. deaths with about 13% of the population. A similar pattern to other countries where big urban centres took a big hit. Cases in London are now falling but unfortunately increasing elsewhere. The 3 nations of the U.K. outside England have fared better, probably because they are more sparsely populated and social distancing is easier.

With all these retro upward revisions to the figures, I shudder to imagine where this is going to end up.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Chris Fountain ()
Date: May 5, 2020 18:17

We should know more early next week how ease of restrictions in subject states have impacted the safety and welfare of all- the numbers will be revealing- Hopefully all is favorable - after rolling the dice by multiple states.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: daspyknows ()
Date: May 5, 2020 18:36

Quote
MisterDDDD
Where cases are still rising

"Most countries with severe coronavirus outbreaks have come well down from their peak in new cases each day. It’s happened in Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Turkey and, if you believe the official numbers, China.
But it has not happened in the United States. Here, the number of both confirmed new cases and deaths has fallen only slightly in the last few weeks. Every day since April 2, there have been at least 22,000 new cases and 1,000 deaths.
Now, with many states preparing to reopen their economies, the toll is likely to start rising again, according to a private Trump administration forecast obtained by The Times. It projected about 3,000 deaths per day on June 1.
Why has the United States failed to bring down its caseload as much as most other countries?

The answer isn’t completely clear, given the complexity of the virus. But the leading suspect, many experts say, is the uneven nature of the U.S. response — like the shortage of tests so far and the mixed approach to social distancing.



[www.nytimes.com]

Maybe I need to start day drinking for the rest of US curve to look flat. Remove northern California and Washington I am sure the curve is even "flatter"

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: TheGreek ()
Date: May 5, 2020 18:46

Mind blowing to me that so many of my fellow citizens think science is nonsense as the rush to reopen is sweeping the nation . All too often I hear so and so had underlying conditions and only those with underlying conditions are dying because now everyone over here knows more than the doctors and scientists . Led right from the top and we get what we have now - a huge mess with daily death counts .

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: bv ()
Date: May 5, 2020 18:59

IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA) are running live models of fatalities based on the current rules of lockdown and/or open-up in USA:

[covid19.healthdata.org]

Today the estimate is 134,000 deaths from COVID-19 in USA by August 4, 2020

Bjornulf

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Maindefender ()
Date: May 5, 2020 19:01

Quote
daspyknows
Quote
MisterDDDD
Where cases are still rising

"Most countries with severe coronavirus outbreaks have come well down from their peak in new cases each day. It’s happened in Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Turkey and, if you believe the official numbers, China.
But it has not happened in the United States. Here, the number of both confirmed new cases and deaths has fallen only slightly in the last few weeks. Every day since April 2, there have been at least 22,000 new cases and 1,000 deaths.
Now, with many states preparing to reopen their economies, the toll is likely to start rising again, according to a private Trump administration forecast obtained by The Times. It projected about 3,000 deaths per day on June 1.
Why has the United States failed to bring down its caseload as much as most other countries?

The answer isn’t completely clear, given the complexity of the virus. But the leading suspect, many experts say, is the uneven nature of the U.S. response — like the shortage of tests so far and the mixed approach to social distancing.



[www.nytimes.com]

Maybe I need to start day drinking for the rest of US curve to look flat. Remove northern California and Washington I am sure the curve is even "flatter"


Aside from a wicked spike on May 1 Washington has been down for quite a while now, and CA is going Phase II soon which confuses me. Cheers...smileys with beer

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: The Joker ()
Date: May 5, 2020 21:58

Quote
bv


- Please no political comments
- Please do not make Corona jokes here
- Post facts not rumours
- Keep the talks mainly Stones tour related

It's just a simple comment, but I may ask: what is the purpose of this thread? All what I read are updated death toll graphics.
IORR is precisely to cheer up, not spreading volume of bad news, every newspaper is doing the job now.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: GasLightStreet ()
Date: May 5, 2020 22:27

Quote
TheGreek
Mind blowing to me that so many of my fellow citizens think science is nonsense as the rush to reopen is sweeping the nation . All too often I hear so and so had underlying conditions and only those with underlying conditions are dying because now everyone over here knows more than the doctors and scientists . Led right from the top and we get what we have now - a huge mess with daily death counts .

Liberty is more important than facts, in this case, science.

A novel virus, the science has to learn. In order to be an arrogant @#$%&, one doesn't have to learn.

The United States is the arrogant @#$%&.

I've been reading about how it's mutating. I asked my mom, who was a nurse for 42 years or something, if it keeps mutating, how good can a vaccine be of mutation 5 for something that's at mutation 53?

She had no idea.

Probably not effective, I said.

She agreed.

The Wuhan to Europe to Washington strain was one thing that has now mutated over 40 times in Iceland and 14 times in, I guess, Europe and North America. The previous form is unknown but it's been in the US since at least October of 2019, if not earlier.

Oh it's just the flu... nobody knows what to call it.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Stoneage ()
Date: May 5, 2020 22:34

Careful, Joker. Now you're out on uncharted territory. I do agree with you though. Newspaper clips and too many graphs gets a bit boring after awhile.
However trustworthy they are. I don't need IORR for that kind of information. But I'll leave you to take the flak...I''m out of here...

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Maindefender ()
Date: May 5, 2020 22:55

Quote
bv
IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA) are running live models of fatalities based on the current rules of lockdown and/or open-up in USA:

[covid19.healthdata.org]

Today the estimate is 134,000 deaths from COVID-19 in USA by August 4, 2020

Not jumping for joy, but hopefully the deaths per day graph trends as depicted

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: MisterDDDD ()
Date: May 5, 2020 23:06

Quote
The Joker
It's just a simple comment, but I may ask: what is the purpose of this thread? All what I read are updated death toll graphics.
IORR is precisely to cheer up, not spreading volume of bad news, every newspaper is doing the job now.

Purpose of the thread for me is to learn about the virus and its affects from different perspectives and experiences from Rolling Stones fans all over the world.

I mean it's not as riveting or entertaining as the last thread you started..
"Craking the code of Chewin' Mick (inspired by Rockman)" [iorr.org] which by the way, I never so much as thought about clicking on until now, reinforcing my theory
that if you don't like or want to read about something, you don't have to click on it.

Also- what is "Craking" ?

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: GasLightStreet ()
Date: May 5, 2020 23:22

Quote
The Joker
Quote
bv


- Please no political comments
- Please do not make Corona jokes here
- Post facts not rumours
- Keep the talks mainly Stones tour related

It's just a simple comment, but I may ask: what is the purpose of this thread? All what I read are updated death toll graphics.
IORR is precisely to cheer up, not spreading volume of bad news, every newspaper is doing the job now.

Don't click on the thread.

How hard is that.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Rockman ()
Date: May 5, 2020 23:24

...I take full blame for
putting the madness in The joker's head



ROCKMAN

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Date: May 5, 2020 23:49

[www.yahoo.com]


Not sure if this was posted yet.

This is what will put me over the top.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: swimtothemoon ()
Date: May 5, 2020 23:57

I just read the white house task force will begin to disband around the 25th of
this month. If true it’s just in time for the June 1st. predicted 3,000 US deaths per day forecast. The incompetence, coverup and lack of empathy is beyond belief.
It’s all about getting someone re-elected at ANY expense.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Stoneage ()
Date: May 6, 2020 00:08

Read a horrible article in Aftonbladet (the biggest Swedish newspaper) today. Apparently the food chain is disturbed among rats in New York City.
Many of them used to live on leftovers from the frequent restaurants in NYC. So they are getting desperate for food. Which makes them more visible on the streets.
Some have turned into cannibalism too. Which they do when food sources are scarce.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Date: May 6, 2020 00:19

Quote
swimtothemoon
I just read the white house task force will begin to disband around the 25th of
this month. If true it’s just in time for the June 1st. predicted 3,000 US deaths per day forecast. The incompetence, coverup and lack of empathy is beyond belief.
It’s all about getting someone re-elected at ANY expense.




Yes you are correct. It has nothing to do with people wanting to get back to work and provide for their families etc. It has nothing to do with people fed up with the lock down. It has nothing to do with starting the process to get life back to normal. It has nothing to do with millions and millions and millions and millions of people saying OPEN UP.


If a person does not like the idea of opening back up then they should stay home.

It is now up to each person to make the decision the fits them.

It is your choice and it is my choice.

Home of the FREE and the BRAVE.

Be smart be safe but don't be scared.

Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by: Hairball ()
Date: May 6, 2020 00:33

Quote
Stoneage
Read a horrible article in Aftonbladet (the biggest Swedish newspaper) today. Apparently the food chain is disturbed among rats in New York City.
Many of them used to live on leftovers from the frequent restaurants in NYC. So they are getting desperate for food. Which makes them more visible on the streets.
Some have turned into cannibalism too. Which they do when food sources are scarce.

eye popping smiley

"Rats on the west side"...."what a mess"...maybe they'll keep their overpopulation under control themselves...

________________
Keep on rolling.......

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