Fair enoug, bv. Concerning the numbers of deaths caused by the virus, the only fact I know is, that in our country in the first five official cases of death it was officially said, that the cause of death was most likely not the coronavirus. Those 5 cases are from the very start part of the "total deaths" column on worldometers. Such thing was never discussed since then. Since then we only get the numbers of deaths. It is up to everyone to believe or not to believe the accuracy. I am not saying one or the other, since I don't know. Though of course, I have my opinion. Which again, can be wrong...

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Happy24
Fair enoug, bv. Concerning the numbers of deaths caused by the virus, the only fact I know is, that in our country in the first five official cases of death it was officially said, that the cause of death was most likely not the coronavirus. Those 5 cases are from the very start part of the "total deaths" column on worldometers. Such thing was never discussed since then. Since then we only get the numbers of deaths. It is up to everyone to believe or not to believe the accuracy. I am not saying one or the other, since I don't know. Though of course, I have my opinion. Which again, can be wrong...

There are increasing numbers of academics and journalists questioning why anyone displaying symptons, even with other more severe life threatening conditions, are being attributed to covid 19 deaths. John Waters, Irish journalist and reputable, discussed the UK document on how to attribute cause of death in a crisis - if covid 19 is present in any form, even mildly, and the patient dies, with underlying serious conditions, that can be attributed solely to Covid 19. I find this incredible, as these figures are being utilised by governments to impose severe restrictions.

If the death rate of 10% was factual, the numbers of fatally ill that would equate to, it would be manifestly observable when you step foot outside your door.

There seems to no distinction, in many countries, not all, betweem dying with covid 19 as opposed to dying from covid 19.

It is at least worth questioning, is it not?

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IrelandCalling4

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Happy24
Fair enoug, bv. Concerning the numbers of deaths caused by the virus, the only fact I know is, that in our country in the first five official cases of death it was officially said, that the cause of death was most likely not the coronavirus. Those 5 cases are from the very start part of the "total deaths" column on worldometers. Such thing was never discussed since then. Since then we only get the numbers of deaths. It is up to everyone to believe or not to believe the accuracy. I am not saying one or the other, since I don't know. Though of course, I have my opinion. Which again, can be wrong...

There are increasing numbers of academics and journalists questioning why anyone displaying symptons, even with other more severe life threatening conditions, are being attributed to covid 19 deaths. John Waters, Irish journalist and reputable, discussed the UK document on how to attribute cause of death in a crisis - if covid 19 is present in any form, even mildly, and the patient dies, with underlying serious conditions, that can be attributed solely to Covid 19. I find this incredible, as these figures are being utilised by governments to impose severe restrictions.

If the death rate of 10% was factual, the numbers of fatally ill that would equate to, it would be manifestly observable when you step foot outside your door.

There seems to no distinction, in many countries, not all, betweem dying with covid 19 as opposed to dying from covid 19.

It is at least worth questioning, is it not?

Rather than saying "academics and journalists questioning", it would be nice if you posted a link to the story, otherwise it will be just your personal opinion.

People with lung diseases, cancer, heart conditions, and even the flu, may be treated even at old age, and survive. They have vaccines protecting from the flu, from pneumonia and other diseases. Most diseases are predictable, and modern medicine make it possible to be old, with diseases, still you don't die from it, but rather with it.

In Norway, where I live, there are 1.6 million people - 30% of the population of 5.4 mill - with some sort of medical condition. They live a perfectly normal life, most of them, because there is a health system, medication, and proper care. Total life expectancy is 82.5 years.

Then the corona virus appear, these people get infected, and within 2-3 weeks, they die. For sure this is to blame the corona virus, not any other underlying conditions. Only countries such as North Korea would make smoke screen explanations of getting the covid-19 deaths disappear.

Bjornulf

The problem is the categorisation. The article from John Ioannidis at Stanford goes some way to explain. An open lettet to the German Government recently (I will try and locate it) from a Senior reiterates those same concerns of mis-categorisation. It is vital as draconian measures are being implemented based on this data and the models that derive from it. Its at least worth considering.

[www.statnews.com]

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IrelandCalling4
The problem is the categorisation. The article from John Ioannidis at Stanford goes some way to explain. An open lettet to the German Government recently (I will try and locate it) from a Senior reiterates those same concerns of mis-categorisation. It is vital as draconian measures are being implemented based on this data and the models that derive from it. Its at least worth considering.

[www.statnews.com]

The above article is written by professor John P. A. Ioannidis at Stanford University. It is dated MARCH 17, 2020, i.e. nearly one month ago. Since then we - and the professor - have learned a LOT. I found another study by the same professor, published at the same time, which is indicating he did not know, or understand, back then, one month ago, the complete picture of the current pandemic:

Coronavirus disease 2019: The harms of exaggerated information and non?evidence?based measures (Wiley Online Library - 19 March 2020)

One month later, vs the above articles, we do now know a few very important factors, not known a month ago:

- Covid-19 is moving a lot more rapid than the annual flu
- Covid-19 might move from people without any symptoms
- Covid-19 moves 1-2 m i.e. 3-6 feet, also by talking or singing
- Covid-19 may be in 40% to 50% of the population without symptoms
- Lock down is highly effective, within 3-4 weeks

Now the big challenge is what's next of course, after lock down.

I am sure the world leaders will be able to stop the virus, and they will limit the damage, but we want to get through this without too much damage on our economy. That is the challenge, but I am sure smart leaders will listen to experts, and experts like professor John P. A. Ioannidis at Stanford University are learning a lot about this pandemic every day.

Bjornulf



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-04-14 16:18 by bv.

Okay, this is from a new article, published just 1 hour ago:

"As of Monday, the covid-19 patient born in 1978 has also been registered at the General University Hospital in Prague (VFN) as one of the youngest victims.
The immediate cause of his death, however, was bleeding into the brain due to inflammation of the heart."

So the official cause of death is not the coronavirus, yet he is +1 among the coronavirus victims. I can't say how it works in other countries, but this is how it is in The Czech Republic.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-04-14 18:29 by Happy24.

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bv
- Covid-19 may be in 40% to 50% of the population without symptoms
- Lock down is highly effective, within 3-4 weeks

Now the big challenge is what's next of course, after lock down.

As for the dark figure (i.e. persons without symptoms) it possibly depends on when and where.

In a nationwide cross-sectional (prevalence) study over here (Austria) per April 6, it turned out that after a month of lockdown (and at a time of a total ~111.000 tests and ~12.000 infections) only 0,33% of the persons in the sample were tested positive as infected without symptoms (PCR tests). Based on these results the statisticians calculated the dark figure of Corona infections on that days at a probability of 95% as somewhere between 0,12% und 0,76%, averaged out at 0,36%. [kurier.at] This less than a hundredth of the hitherto assumed dark figure of around 40%. (The picture will certainly change a bit once they do a prevalence study including antibody tests, which will give a better idea of how many people went through a Corona infections without symptoms; in the mentioned study, the available antibody tests were deemed too unreliable, i.e. too many false-negatives and false-positives.) A second study is already under way but I haven't found much detail about it yet.

While this shows that timely and strict lockdown measures are (very) effective, it also means that even if the curve continues to flatten as it presently does over here, there could be another outbreak with exponentially rising case numbers any time if the lockdown is ended because hardly anyone in the populations will be immune. (Theoretically it is also possible, of course, that the remaining 96,7% of the sample all had gone through a symptom-free, unnoticed Corona infection before the testing and were immune at the time of the testing.) One might expect to get similar findings in countries with similar measures and timing.

In case these results turn out to be representative on a larger scale, this means that even if we all manage to get our curves flat and lockdown measures are ended, the danger is far from over because the virus may come back violently anytime anywhere and we're all back to square one. This is one challenge to consider, not just on a national level but on an international level. (In this view one shouldn't possibly bet one's hat that things, e.g. travel, etc., will be back to the pre-Corona state of affairs very soon.) Another thing the study shows is that testing people on an individual level is not enough, countries also need to conduct prevalence studies (and reliable antibody tests are needed in addition to PCR tests) to get a better idea of the general picture.

On a national level, countries will need to find out more about the specific problems caused by Corona in several contexts.

For one example, comparing the seasonal flu in Austria in recent winters with the present state Corona, one finds that in absolute numbers, the seasonal flu as of now is up to ~7 or ~8 times more fatal than CorVid19 (e.g. ~2850 deaths from the flu in the Winter of 2017/2018 as opposed to 384 deaths from Corona as per today; links in an earlier post). Since flu patients are not left to die in the street either but fill hundreds if not thousands of hospital beds every year, one question is why Corona still presents such a thread to the health care system over here. (I'm referring to absolute numbers here because in the end, hospitals or other local health care facilities are confronted with absolute numbers of patients they have to take care of and not abstract ratios.)

One reason appears to be that in severe cases, Corona requires a type of measures or treatments that health care facilities are not prepared for to the required extent (e.g. the number of available respirators). The flu, on the other hand, is meanwhile a well-known, familiar and better calculable, and hospitals and doctors are prepared for it. Not surprisingly, we also found out that two epidemics going on at the same time is not a good thing either (when Corona hit, we had about 145.000 flu cases with hundreds hospitalized and already ~650 dead by the beginning of March, and going by what the medical guys said on TV, one reason for starting lockdown so early was to get the hospitals clear of flu patients or other winter-related injuries before large numbers of Corona patients come in, which appears to have worked).

There will certainly be a lot of discussion about and research into such issues in the time to come.

another almost 800 souls died in the last 24 hours in NYC. I am now having difficulty getting food and water. it all sucks. thank goodness I have weed. this virus is not going away anytime soon.

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DREAMTIME
another almost 800 souls died in the last 24 hours in NYC. I am now having difficulty getting food and water. it all sucks. thank goodness I have weed. this virus is not going away anytime soon.

wait a minute...whattaya mean "difficulty getting . . . water?"

bottled water, I assume?

speaking of water...man....Detroit....

[www.cbsnews.com]

what a mess.

THE AGE == 15 April 2020



ROCKMAN

So - Trump withdrawing funding from WHO pending a review of its handling of the pandemic

THE AGE --- 15 April 2020



ROCKMAN

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Beast
So - Trump withdrawing funding from WHO pending a review of its handling of the pandemic

Seems like a bad time to do such a thing - right in the midst of a pandemic. I will say no more ...

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Rockman


THE AGE --- 15 April 2020

A couple of hundred years ago someone discovered that barnacles and seaweed wouldn't grow on copper, in fact the copper sheets that were connected to cast iron or zinc parts were free of any attached life forms or discoloration, so the British covered the bottom of their warships in it. It also made them faster (about 5 - 10 kts) .......

Interesting Eddie …. thanks man ...



ROCKMAN

THE AGE -- 15 April 2020



ROCKMAN

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Rockman


THE AGE -- 15 April 2020

jeez

Covid -19 Stimulus Money was deposited into my checking account this morning.The same should apply to those who had automatic deposit last tax year, Of course, this relates to U.S. citizens only.

Some countries are now seriously considering complete travel bans until a vaccine is available.New Zealand is considering no travel in or out until a vaccine is available and Australia is said to be considering the same for at least this year.

Nate

Uh oh, there goes my Oz trip...

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Topi
Uh oh, there goes my Oz trip...

Yeah a great shame but unfortunately looking like a real possibility now.
I was going down there myself next week and was going to reschedule for November but now after hearing this I just took the refund from Qantas but was told by the agent to call back if I haven’t received my refund by September 1st hahahaha.

Nate

Seriously? American told me I'd get the refund in 7 days.

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Topi
Seriously? American told me I'd get the refund in 7 days.

Yeah Qantas told me it will probably take around 90 days and to call back if I hadn’t received it by September 1st.

Nate

In Germany big events will be prohibited till August 31st. Details tba.

Norway do have a travel ban already, for a month now. Non-Norwegian people are stopped at the border, and returned to where they came from. I assume other European countries do have the same. Tourist business is dead right now. I can't really see that ban being opened until this is all over.

Foreigners who work here are allowed in, however, they have to go into a 14 days quarantine before they resume working. Farming have a tradition for many foreigners coming in for working with spring preparations, vegetables, strawberries, virtually any kinds of farming labour. We will see how this will be during the spring and summer.

Bjornulf



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-04-15 20:36 by bv.

If flying returns to some degree of normality before a vaccine is available then people should be prepared for a big increase in prices as social distancing rules may be introduced that only allow airlines to sell a certain percentage of capacity.

Nate

I had the pleasure of sailing up and down the Scandinavian coast along the North Sea with my Swedish relatives and friends on some idyllic summer days in my teens. It was always cool to see the flags on the boats from all of the different nations. I imagine that is all on hold now too? Is the coast guard turning away boats from other nations?

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Beast
So - Trump withdrawing funding from WHO pending a review of its handling of the pandemic

A leading politician in Norway today said you do not close down the fire station when there is a big fire going around.

Bjornulf