churches in Washington state have all been ordered closed. a lot of them are doing services online.

Quote
MAF
Just found this written in the news: Dr. Anthony Fauci (NIAID) told CNN "State of the Union":

Millions of Americans will be infected with the coronavirus and 100,000 to 200,000 will die.

The predictions (same in the UK) come with lots of caveats of course, the impact of measures taken etc. Hence the wide ranging figures. No one can predict with any degree of confidence.
Out of interest.... in the US will ones health care (in or out of hospital) for those who are quite poorly, be variable and influenced by what they can afford?

Quote
bv
Many politicians have said things they will regret in the past, like Erdogan in Turkey. When you look back, you wonder what went on in their minds.

Quotes from the below articles:

Even though the Turkish Health Minister initially denied that there were any coronavirus cases in Turkey, after widespread claims of the spread of the virus, Turkish authorities arrested the whistle blowers. Another 64 Turks were jailed after being accused of disseminating false and provocative information. Furthermore, members of the state-controlled Turkish press panel insisted that “Turkish genes rendered most Turkic people immune,” Rubin reported.

Another reason Rubin gives for Erdogan’s cover-up of the spread of the coronavirus in Turkey is his fear of the collapse of the tourism industry. “In 2018, the Turkish tourism industry accounted for nearly $30 billion dollars. Just a year ago, Erdogan promised that Turkey would host 50 million tourists, raising that figure by at least 20 percent.

Erdogan’s Denial of Coronavirus Crisis Risks the Lives of 80 Million Turks (Armenian Weekly March 24, 2020)

Erdogan says Turkey will overcome coronavirus in two-three weeks; school closures extended (Reuters, March 25, 2020)

The Belarus President is apparently in the same league, allowing football matches to carry on as normal, touting vodka and tough work as antidotes to the virus and saying that the cold weather is more than enough to kill it off anyway.

Quote
jlowe

Quote
MAF
Just found this written in the news: Dr. Anthony Fauci (NIAID) told CNN "State of the Union":

Millions of Americans will be infected with the coronavirus and 100,000 to 200,000 will die.

The predictions (same in the UK) come with lots of caveats of course, the impact of measures taken etc. Hence the wide ranging figures. No one can predict with any degree of confidence.
Out of interest.... in the US will ones health care (in or out of hospital) for those who are quite poorly, be variable and influenced by what they can afford?

Yes, when it comes to just about everything in the US, if you don't have money you are at the end of the line.

All these "strong" alpha males (Bolsonaro, Trump,
Putin, Erdogan etc.) who ignore science, who talk a lot
and say nothing and who think that their testosterone
would be enough to fight a global pandemic...will soon
be sharper.

This belongs to this thread because these leaders are part
of the problem.

Quote
MisterDDDD
One plus here in Washington is the special "senior hours" put in place at most larger stores. Hitting sixty this year has it's advantages .

Costco has an hour twice a week for 60+, easy in and out. My local large grocery store has an early hour every weekday.

Hitting seventy (a few years back) has the "advantage" in Australia that I'm very encouraged (ie on the verge of being legally banned) to stay at home except for medical appointments. I'm thus excused from going shopping and can send my partner. :-)

Means that I miss out on the oldies shopping hour - something that I believe was started in a Melbourne suburb 3 weeks ago. Got global very swiftly.

--
Captain Corella
60 Years a Fan

Quote
bv
Many politicians have said things they will regret in the past, like Erdogan in Turkey. When you look back, you wonder what went on in their minds.

Quotes from the below articles:

Even though the Turkish Health Minister initially denied that there were any coronavirus cases in Turkey, after widespread claims of the spread of the virus, Turkish authorities arrested the whistle blowers. Another 64 Turks were jailed after being accused of disseminating false and provocative information. Furthermore, members of the state-controlled Turkish press panel insisted that “Turkish genes rendered most Turkic people immune,” Rubin reported.

Another reason Rubin gives for Erdogan’s cover-up of the spread of the coronavirus in Turkey is his fear of the collapse of the tourism industry. “In 2018, the Turkish tourism industry accounted for nearly $30 billion dollars. Just a year ago, Erdogan promised that Turkey would host 50 million tourists, raising that figure by at least 20 percent.

Erdogan’s Denial of Coronavirus Crisis Risks the Lives of 80 Million Turks (Armenian Weekly March 24, 2020)

Erdogan says Turkey will overcome coronavirus in two-three weeks; school closures extended (Reuters, March 25, 2020)

Most politicians are only worried about the next election, not doing their jobs.

Many politicians think about the next elections only - but many politicians are working very hard, especially right now, in that horrible crisis. Prayers to all of those who lost their loved ones.

Quote
windmelody
Many politicians think about the next elections only - but many politicians are working very hard, especially right now, in that horrible crisis. Prayers to all of those who lost their loved ones.

OK, I'll give you that. Many do work very long hours.

Country musician Joe Diffie died Sunday from complications of COVID-19.

[www.cmt.com]



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-30 01:53 by bye bye johnny.

Just some links/articles of interest...

1) Cuba is a wonderful country.

[oncubanews.com]


2) Kosovo is in big trouble.

[www.bbc.com]


3) If you have a home, a paycheck, food....be thankful.

[www.nbcnews.com]


consider giving to those who help the most vulnerable

[donate.doctorswithoutborders.org]


stay safe, everyone.

Coronavirus Slowdown in Seattle Suggests Restrictions Are Working
Officials in Washington State worry that their gains are precarious, but they see evidence that containment strategies have lowered the rate of virus transmission.

"SEATTLE — The Seattle area, home of the first known coronavirus case in the United States and the place where the virus claimed 37 of its first 50 victims, is now seeing evidence that harsh containment strategies, imposed in the earliest days of the outbreak, are beginning to pay off — at least for now.

Deaths are not rising as fast as they are in other states. Dramatic declines in street traffic show that people are staying home. Hospitals have so far not been overwhelmed. And preliminary statistical models provided to public officials in Washington State suggest that the spread of the virus has slowed in the Seattle area in recent days."
[www.nytimes.com]

Realistically, my guess is that once you are above 5000 cases in any country the virus has reached "critical mass" and it is uncontrollable. Then of course there is the suspicion that the real number is 10X the reported number.

Of course you still want to strictly adhere to the social distancing and other measures put in place to slow down the virus. Wear a mask, gloves and goggles.

It feels in some ways like a war. I hope the warm weather in the Northern Hemisphere helps and I hope by the end of the summer that things start to get back to normal. I fear that in many less developed countries it's going to be very very bad and in some of those countries the the medical system and the apparatus of the state is going to fail.

We’re doing better than other areas here in Washington, but we’re a long ways from being in the clear. We had a significant drop in new cases today. I believe we are now #7 on the list of states with reported cases. Until we can get comprehensive universal testing and quarantine/isolate all of the positive cases, it’s hard to see this just going away. While most are taking the call for social distancing seriously, I am still encountering groups of 4-5, usually late teen to early 20 year olds, clustered together. It’s also disconcerting how many joggers go closely by me as I walk, 1-2 feet away, breathing heavily from their workout. Are they oblivious that this disease is primarily spread through airborne effluvia? I’ve got to find more deserted trails to walk, preferably away from all of the joggers and cyclists.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-30 05:50 by Javadave.

One of the things that helps spread infection is that you should not touch your face if you can possibly help it.

Here's how one physicist tackled the problem.

[tinyurl.com]

Did he fail or not?

--
Captain Corella
60 Years a Fan

Outbreak at Washington state choir practice suggests virus had airborne spread

"The outbreak was notable given that the singers, wary of the virus’s growing death toll in Seattle, were careful to use hand sanitizer, avoid physical contact and keep a distance from one another. None appeared to be ill at the time.
County health officials have concluded that the virus must have been transmitted through the air by singers who were asymptomatic, the Times reported. If so, it would bolster the findings of researchers who say that the virus can be transmitted through microscopic aerosols, in addition to the much larger respiratory droplets that are emitted when someone coughs or sneezes."

[www.washingtonpost.com]

This is the summary of the weekly coronavirus statistics.

China and South Korea have got the virus under control.

USA and Germany do have 6x increase in deaths week-by-week, but the good news are both factors are going down, even if USA is just marginal down from 6.1 to 6.0.

Italy, Spain, France, Germany and UK are all going down significantly in the week-by-week multiplication factor, which is good news. Even if the numbers in Italy are large, they are soon at the rate in South Korea, so next week will be very interesting.

Canada is a country of 40 million people, i.e. similar in size to the largest countries in Europe. So far their numbers have been low and insignificant, but with double digit numbers it is now possible to state a week-by-week death rate similar to the one Italy had last week. The number next week will tell a lot here.

I am very optimistic about these numbers. Sure they are large in number of deaths, sure there are thousands and thousands of people with the deaths from the coronavirus, but from most of the G7 countries, lockdown actions seems to show the fact that the large growth rates are now going down.

Background numbers:



References:

[www.worldometers.info]

Then a comment about the fatality rate. The death of a single person is just as terrible in a small country, or a small community, as a large one. Still, when a country is 100 or may be 1,000 times bigger than another, then larger numbers are to be expected. This may be compared to the number of fatalities in traffic accidents. Three examples:

Countries by traffic-related death rate

China : 250,000 people killed in traffic accidents every year, i.e. 18.2 of 100,000 inhabitants of the 1.400 million population.

USA : 40,000 people killed in traffic accidents every year, i.e. 12.4 of 100,000 inhabitants of the 330 million population.

Iceland : 22 people killed in traffic accidents every year, i.e. 6.6 out of 100,000 inhabitants in the 360,000 population.

It is two times as dangerous in the traffic in USA vs Iceland, and three times as dangerous in China. When a person is killed in traffic in Iceland, I am sure it is in the headlines of the main newspaper, but I don't think every traffic fatality in USA is listed in New York Times or on CNN.

There is one very important difference in fatalities from car accidents and the coronavirus. The 40,000 traffic fatalities in USA are probably more or less evenly distributed through the year, i.e. some 40,000 / 12 = approx 750 per week. The hospitals and the health system is scaled for this amount of fatalities, i.e. people who arrive from accidents, in the need of emergency treatment. However, when there was 5,000 coronavirus fatalities last week both in Spain and Italy, then there is no way the health system is scaled for such massive and dramatic emergency. As compared, the total fatalities from traffic accidents in Italy is 3,300 in a year, i.e. approx 60 per week. Now the coronavirus problem is 100 times bigger than traffic accident fatalities for the health system. That is why the coronavirus need to be contained, and the curve need to be flattened.

Still the three major rules, now followed by many countries:

1. Keep a physical distance of more than 2 m / 6 feet to people
2. Wash your hands properly and often
3. Limit the number of people you have contact with, max 2-5 people

Reference

[en.wikipedia.org]
List of countries by traffic-related death rate

Bjornulf



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-30 14:52 by bv.

Quote
Rocky Dijon

Quote
daspyknows
Lots of dumbasses like that in America. Let them hold hands, pray and die.

It seems the majority of churches are closed and have been for several weeks. While holding hands and the like is terribly irresponsible and potentially dangerous; calling people dumbasses and saying let them die is certainly an interesting response. Let's hope John Lennon was wrong about Instant Karma.

Must be the Corona talking..............



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-30 16:04 by EddieByword.

Quote
MisterDDDD
Outbreak at Washington state choir practice suggests virus had airborne spread

"The outbreak was notable given that the singers, wary of the virus’s growing death toll in Seattle, were careful to use hand sanitizer, avoid physical contact and keep a distance from one another. None appeared to be ill at the time.
County health officials have concluded that the virus must have been transmitted through the air by singers who were asymptomatic, the Times reported. If so, it would bolster the findings of researchers who say that the virus can be transmitted through microscopic aerosols, in addition to the much larger respiratory droplets that are emitted when someone coughs or sneezes."

[www.washingtonpost.com]

From the LA Times:
[www.latimes.com]

<<< But a study published March 17 in the New England Journal of Medicine found that when the virus was suspended in a mist under laboratory conditions it remained “viable and infectious” for three hours — though researchers have said that time period would probably be no more than a half-hour in real-world conditions.

One of the authors of that study, Jamie Lloyd-Smith, a UCLA infectious disease researcher, said it’s possible that the forceful breathing action of singing dispersed viral particles in the church room that were widely inhaled. >>>

The article says 45 out of 60 may be infected. That's scary.

Wear an N95-style mask or better, goggles, gloves.

<<< Health officials said all 28 choir members who were tested for COVID-19 were found to be infected. The other 17 with symptoms never got tested, either because tests were not available or — like Comstock and Owen — the singers were under the impression that only people in dire condition were eligible. >>>

USA coronavirus fatality numbers from the past few days are actually showing a trend of slowing down. Unless there are coming up new clusters outside lockdown areas, it seems like USA will be over the worst soon.

I don't think the worst case scenario of 100,000 to 200,000 fatalities, as mentioned yesterday at the president's press conference, will happen, if this is the trend.

Bjornulf

Legendary Musician Tom Rush announced yesterday that he has contracted the Corona virus. He believes he may have been infected during a series of performances earlier in the month in the Southern US

All his upcoming shows through May have been postponed.

Tom Rush is in his 70's-- hopefully his illness will be mild and short-lived !

Good vibes for Tom.......keep that Driving Wheel going.

I'm a big fan of Tom Rush, wishing him a fast and full recovery.

I already know its gonna be hard to lose these old music legends. I really don't need to see them going as a result of this pandemic. Please get well Tom. Hoping his is just a mild case as opposed to Prine which sounds serious.

Its interesting to note the downward trend in the various prediction models.
So the US from 2.2 million to 200,000
And in the UK 500,000 to 20,000.
The models took into account the measures imposed by Governments.
No time for complacency of course (especially in regards to third world countries).

[twitter.com]



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-30 01:07 by Boognish.

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuck. Terrible although I guess the best thing is its coming right from his people? So at least its not a rumor we have to hope on. But thats horrible. Genuinely hoping he pulls through but I feel they wouldn't put that up unless the situation is really bad.

Very sad.

Sending good thoughts, Legend.

Love him. Poor John.