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crholmstrom
Finally got my test result after a week. Came back negative. I still need to be careful because of immune system issues but at least don't have to do full quarantine.

Take care, though! Everyday we learn the thing is more contagious than we thought the day before! Don't take risks!

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Hairball

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crholmstrom
Finally got my test result after a week. Came back negative. I still need to be careful because of immune system issues but at least don't have to do full quarantine.

Good news.

Excellent news! Stay safe.

Tough video to watch, but several NYC hospitals are over capacity and under equipped. Already.

"People Are Dying" 72 hours inside a NYC Hospital Battling Coronavirus
video: [nyti.ms]

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crholmstrom
Finally got my test result after a week. Came back negative. I still need to be careful because of immune system issues but at least don't have to do full quarantine.

Congratulations, well done...
Nice to hear some good news.

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Hairball

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crholmstrom
Finally got my test result after a week. Came back negative. I still need to be careful because of immune system issues but at least don't have to do full quarantine.

Good news.

Bill Gates is said to be running the world's biggest charity, supporting poor people around the world fighting diseases like aids, ebola and malaria. He is a true philanthropist.

Forbes:

Coronavirus: Bill Gates predicted pandemic in 2015

Bill Gates warned five years ago that it was coming. In a TED talk in 2015, the Microsoft co-founder and billionaire philanthropist cited lessons learned from Western Africa’s 2014 Ebola virus crisis, and said the U.S. and other countries were not prepared for the future pandemic that was going to hit them.

“If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it’s most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war,” Gates said. “Not missiles, but microbes.”

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, based in Seattle, is run by three trustees: Bill and his wife Melinda Gates, and financier Warren Buffett. Since it was established 20 years ago, the foundation has contributed more than $6 billion to medical research and health care, focusing on treatment and prevention of AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, measles and other diseases, particularly in Africa and some of the poorest parts of the world.

Bjornulf



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-26 08:32 by bv.

Please do NOT post sensational calculations on death rates, based on your own private calculations. I will delete such posts. This is why:

The death rate is calculated by two nombers:

deaths / positives * 100

The number of deaths from the coronavirus is usually accurate, in most parts of the world.

The number of actual positive coronavirus people in a country is not known, except for very few countries. The exception might be Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, and Faroe Islands, places known for a hight degree of testing.

If you only test those who are brought to hospital, like in Italy, needless to say, that is not the right number for calculating the death rate.

Norway are testing a lot more than the average. Yesterday we had tested a total of 73,089, of which 2,916 are positive tests. On the day there were a total of 12 deaths from the virus, which could be calculated into 12 / 2912 * 100 = 0.4% fatality rate. However, there are two sources of error here:

* The real number of positives in Norway is higher, because children, younger people, even people age 40, might not know they are sick. One of the leading ministers in the government was tested, because an assistant had the virus. The minister was positive. He did not know. He thought he had a normal cold.

* The deaths number from the current numbers will not be known until after this is all over, because it takes 3-4 weeks from you get positive until you might die some times.

In short, like WHO said long time ago, the death rate of the coronavirus is 0.5% to 1%. Compared to the annual flu, it is 5-10 times more dangerous, and the big problem is, elderly people have absolutely NO protection, vs the flu, there is a shot, a vaccine.

References:

A doctor in the Faroe Islands was puzzled by a mysterious pattern: Are there two kinds of coronavirus?

Status koronasmitte onsdag 25. mars 2020 (FHI: Official Norway Numbers March 25)

Bjornulf



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-26 10:08 by bv.

Quote
bv
Please do NOT post sensational calculations on death rates, based on your own private calculations. I will delete such posts. This is why:

The death rate is calculated by two nombers:

deaths / positives * 100

The number of deaths from the coronavirus is usually accurate, in most parts of the world.

The number of actual positive coronavirus people in a country is not known, except for very few countries. The exception might be Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, and Faroe Islands, places known for a hight degree of testing.

If you only test those who are brought to hospital, like in Italy, needless to say, that is not the right number for calculating the death rate.

Norway are testing a lot more than the average. Yesterday we had tested a total of 73,089, of which 2,916 are positive tests. On the day there were a total of 12 deaths from the virus, which could be calculated into 12 / 2912 * 100 = 0.4% fatality rate. However, there are two sources of error here:

* The real number of positives in Norway is higher, because children, younger people, even people age 40, might not know they are sick. One of the leading ministers in the government was tested, because an assistant had the virus. The minister was positive. He did not know. He thought he had a normal cold.

* The deaths number from the current numbers will not be known until after this is all over, because it takes 3-4 weeks from you get positive until you might die some times.

In short, like WHO said long time ago, the death rate of the coronavirus is 0.5% to 1%. Compared to the annual flu, it is 5-10 times more dangerous, and the big problem is, elderly people have absolutely NO protection, vs the flu, there is a shot, a vaccine.

References:

A doctor in the Faroe Islands was puzzled by a mysterious pattern: Are there two kinds of coronavirus?

Status koronasmitte onsdag 25. mars 2020 (FHI: Official Norway Numbers March 25)

Hi BV,

Thanks for keeping the board clean. It must be a helluva job.

I'm no expert, but I know a bit of math. In the death rate calculation formula there should be a time factor, as the number of positives is growing rapidly. Pepole that die today were infected a few weeks ago, when the number of infected people was much lower than today. The death rate of people that get infected today will only show in a few weeks time.

Things might threfore be even more serious than the number currently show.

Stay safe everybody.

"A doctor in the Faroe Islands was puzzled by a mysterious pattern: Are there two kinds of coronavirus?"
[www.berlingske.dk]

"Why is the virus more contagious in some people than others? The Danish institute for contagious disesases, Statens Serum Institut, is now assuming there are two types of coronavirus. This might be the «light at the end of the tunnel»"

The mathematics are easy if you have exact and reliable numbers. The problem is the fact that the health systems are at the extreme now in several countries. In a perfect world, every sick person is getting perfect treatment with respirator (ventilator), if needed, enough staff, a proper hospital bed and so on. Now they kick out people who are sick from other issues from the hospitals, they talk about sharing ventilators with two patients, they don't even have enough ventilators, they have to reuse masks, it is a big chaos in several countries. This will lead to the death rate going up, because the health system can't cope. So we will for sure see different death rates among different countries when this is all over.

The best we can do no, in short is what WHO have tod us for THREE MONTHS NOW:

- Stay at home
- Keep a large distance (2-3 meters i.e. 7-10 feet)
- Wash your hands properly and often
- Respect the rules as given by the authorities

Regardless of what some deniers say, this will NOT blow away anytime soon. Not now, not for Easter, not for May. Not until there is a vaccine.

Bjornulf

Mentioned in this thread already is that the UK's Prince Charles has tested positive.

One of the news reports I saw mentioned, quite reasonably I thought, that in the time when he may have been infectious he had attended lots and lots of gatherings. eg Bush Fire fund raising at Australia House in London.

In one of the clips (not the above) showed Prince Charles talking to our very own Ronnie Wood.

Ouch!
Here's the photo..

[www.zimbio.com]

It says it was from March 11th. I think I heard that his dates work out that he may have become infectious on March 12th (when he met The Queen)... but who knows!

--
Captain Corella
60 Years a Fan

Musician Larry Campbell has tested positive and is self-quarantining in NY.

[www.facebook.com]

Finland has 4 deaths now, I guess about 900 confirmed cases.

Restaurants and bars to be closed this weekend already, as will be the province of Uusimaa (population of about 1,7 million including the capital region).

That photo of ronnie and Prince Charles is a shock, looks like Craig David and Ant and Dec in line to meet him. Thankfully no one is shaking hands

The thing about death Rates is, it's basically useless sensationalism, feeding a morbid tendency.
Every country has it's own rules when and who to test. There are supposedly many people infected with no symptoms at all or very few. Those won't show in any statistics, therefore the officially tested number of persons is far from being accurate.
I find it concerning that people with different opinions or a brighter outlook are dubbed as deniers...
Why the need to put a bad label to anything expressing a different point of view?

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MisterDDDD
Tough video to watch, but several NYC hospitals are over capacity and under equipped. Already.

"People Are Dying" 72 hours inside a NYC Hospital Battling Coronavirus
video: [nyti.ms]

New York is over-populated, over-crowded & has high population density.

this situation shouldn't be a surprise to anyone....especially since NYers ignored Social Distancing for far too long.

New Orleans is next. Same problem(s).

It's horrible, but this is the result of having too many people living in a small space....and "asking" people to social distance instead of forcing them to.

This should be a lesson moving forward.

But, it won't be. People want all the benefits and fun of crowded urban centers during the good times....however, this is the result during the bad times.

We need to dilute population-density, not concentrate it...this isn't that complicated in a digital-age and companies like Amazon could move to Iowa or Missouri...instead of NY and Northern VA

...but, lots of people don't want to live in places like Missouri...places many East/West Coasters degradingly refer to as the "fly over states"....

Low population density is a big reason why places like Missouri have enough respirators....for now.

Horrible situation for NY, but not surprising in the slightest.

Trump Wants to ‘Reopen America.’ Here’s What Happens if We Do.



"We created this interactive model with epidemiologists to show why quickly returning to normal could be a historic mistake that would lead to an explosion of infections, hospitalizations and deaths.

Play with this model below by moving the slider to change the length of time that controls are in effect, and you’ll see the impact on lives lost"

[www.nytimes.com]

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calipachangero
The thing about death Rates is, it's basically useless sensationalism, feeding a morbid tendency.
Every country has it's own rules when and who to test. There are supposedly many people infected with no symptoms at all or very few. Those won't show in any statistics, therefore the officially tested number of persons is far from being accurate.
I find it concerning that people with different opinions or a brighter outlook are dubbed as deniers...
Why the need to put a bad label to anything expressing a different point of view?

It's not useless, but we're not getting enough demographic context to assess the level of surprise/alarm....

ie. the only demographic I seem to hear about is "age" (and the vague "pre-existing condition" term)....which is not enough context, IMO.

If 1/3 people in the US are termed "obese," it seems like that would be a factor we'd need to consider when analyzing risk/#s/death toll.

I recently saw that "obesity" is considered a "pre-existing condition"....which then means that 1/3 Americans fall in the "high risk" category when it comes to death via Corona.

NO OFFENSE INTENDED, but given the health-realities linked to obesity this should not be particularly surprising.

doesn't mean we shouldn't be empathetic, sympathetic and/or concerned for the overall well-being of everyone.....but, we should try to look at this more objectively and scientifically, rather than just counting numbers on a ticker.

I don't really know what my point was, but I find it frustrating the lack of context surrounding the death-toll.

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MisterDDDD
Trump Wants to ‘Reopen America.’ Here’s What Happens if We Do.



"We created this interactive model with epidemiologists to show why quickly returning to normal could be a historic mistake that would lead to an explosion of infections, hospitalizations and deaths.

Play with this model below by moving the slider to change the length of time that controls are in effect, and you’ll see the impact on lives lost"

[www.nytimes.com]

I'm not saying this predictive model is wrong (nor am I saying it is irrefutably correct)...note that under "Methodology" it states:

Note that this is a model, not the real world; epidemiologists say that in reality the virus without controls would take longer to spread, partly because of growing immunity and partly because people would become much more careful.

However, Trump can't re-open America....for one, he never closed it...for two, that's up to the States.

Misleading headline seeking to blame Trump for "if" scenarios...not surprising, given the source.

Trump says lots of things...doesn't mean anybody has to listen to them.

if Cuomo re-opens NY...that's on him....same w/ every other state/city.

Personally, I don't think we should re-open until we see what happens when it gets warmer (ie. May or June).

...but, we are going to have to re-open eventually and deal w/ what comes.

Hopefully we'll have some herd-immunity and/or a viable vaccine by that point.

ps..I'm no Trumpy.

Isle of Wight festival cancelled (and about time too: it's been obvious for some time that bringing thousands of extra people to the island for a crowded festival this June is lunacy.)

Bruce and Friends video for the US

www.brucespringsteen.net

We need to pull together and start the healing at home, so please help the New Jersey Pandemic Relief Fund at NJPRF.ORG #BandTogetherNJ

Looking for anything positive, I saw that China had no new cases yesterday.

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stickyfingers101
Misleading headline seeking to blame Trump for "if" scenarios...not surprising, given the source.

Trump says lots of things...doesn't mean anybody has to listen to them.

Not here for political debates sticky. Not the place.
Of course people- including media, local officials, and governors (see Mississippi) respond to the President's words. Quoting them, as nearly every news org in the world has, is not misleading. Countering them with facts, models, statistics etc. is important.

I repost some articles here that I believe have important info.

You don't have to agree, or like the source, but do me a favor.
Instead of trying to pick apart my posts, the articles, the methodology et al,, go ahead and post what you believe to be important info of your own.

Thanks in advance.

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stickyfingers101

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MisterDDDD
Trump Wants to ‘Reopen America.’ Here’s What Happens if We Do.



"We created this interactive model with epidemiologists to show why quickly returning to normal could be a historic mistake that would lead to an explosion of infections, hospitalizations and deaths.

Play with this model below by moving the slider to change the length of time that controls are in effect, and you’ll see the impact on lives lost"

[www.nytimes.com]

I'm not saying this predictive model is wrong (nor am I saying it is irrefutably correct)...note that under "Methodology" it states:

Note that this is a model, not the real world; epidemiologists say that in reality the virus without controls would take longer to spread, partly because of growing immunity and partly because people would become much more careful.

However, Trump can't re-open America....for one, he never closed it...for two, that's up to the States.

Misleading headline seeking to blame Trump for "if" scenarios...not surprising, given the source.

Trump says lots of things...doesn't mean anybody has to listen to them.

if Cuomo re-opens NY...that's on him....same w/ every other state/city.

Personally, I don't think we should re-open until we see what happens when it gets warmer (ie. May or June).

...but, we are going to have to re-open eventually and deal w/ what comes.

Hopefully we'll have some herd-immunity and/or a viable vaccine by that point.

ps..I'm no Trumpy.

Agree SF101 for the most part. I'd be shocked if after the 15 days the US opens back up, we know that's not happening.

It's tragic that things that seemed soooo important 2 weeks ago, no longer are.

Definitely made me re-think my priorities.

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stickyfingers101

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GasLightStreet

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MisterDDDD

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stickyfingers101

I read the article YOU (originally) posted, bud.

[www.cnbc.com]

it said nothing about this donation...

in the time it took you to insult me by implicitly calling me "uneducated" you could've just posted the follow-up article and said "he gave $100m according to this article" and skipped the insult...

whatever....

Follow up Comments:

With all Sincerity: $100m is a very nice donation. Thank you, Bill. Good start. Keep it up....exponentially, please.

However, just to put it in perspective:

a) this donation is from his Foundation...not his pocket...there's a difference (though he does fund about 1/2 to 2/3 of the Foundation)

b) Bill Gates is worth around $100 BILLION...which is more than 122 COUNTRIES are worth....it's the GDP of Slovakia

in other words, money is essentially NO object to him...

Perspective: if you spent $1 PER SECOND....it would take you 32 YEARS to spend ONE Billion.

As stated: It's a nice donation...thank you for educating me w/ the follow-up article.

I'm glad he gives...something is always better than nothing....but, it should be taken in perspective.

Simply put, Bill can (and should) do more. Full stop.

good luck to you. I hope you are healthy and safe.

Posted both prior. His foundations work, his philanthropy, and his commitment to giving away the bulk of his wealth before he dies are well known. By most.
Glad you got caught up.. he's been actively funding and working on health issues for twenty years.

More here, in which he essentially predicted this.
[www.mercurynews.com]

"Although he began his career as a computer programmer, Gates, 64, has devoted much of the last 20 years to public health and medicine.

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, based in Seattle, is run by three trustees: Bill and his wife Melinda Gates, and financier Warren Buffett. Since it was established 20 years ago, the foundation has contributed more than $6 billion to medical research and health care, focusing on treatment and prevention of AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, measles and other diseases, particularly in Africa and some of the poorest parts of the world.

On Feb. 5, the foundation announced a $100 million donation to fund research and development of drugs and other treatments for COVID-19.

There are people in the world that are never happy. Bill Gates isn't doing enough.

What a load of bullshit that is. And YOU are doing what, exactly? Staying inside?

Athletes, musicians and actors should keep their mouths shut? Perhaps just regular ol' people should, too. Seeing that athletes, musician and actors are people...

I know someone that's denying things about it, and supports an orange mop's denial and lies about it, that is 72 years old and considers it nothing worse than the flu and, really, nothing like the flu at all.

The willful ignorance and arrogance, typical American, of course, blows my mind.

ahh..the old "what are you doing?" message.

Thank you for asking....here's a list:

1) staying inside...yep....which is, of course, one of the most important things one can do....though, I do go to the grocery store for myself and my 90-year-old neighbor who lives alone

2) I gave blood last week....granted that was scheduled months ago.

3) I cashed out a CD about 10 days ago...it was worth 1% of my total net worth and I donated it to Doctors without Borders (Gates' donation is worth 0.01% of his net worth, by comparison...and money means nothing to him...I'm a school teacher...proportionality)

4) I give 5% of my pre-tax salary to charity every year

5) We're adopting a cat...shelters are inundated...so, the local shelter is dropping it off tomorrow (at the end of my driveway, per social-distancing)....to add to our 3 other shelter cats and 3 shelter dogs.

Bill Gates does a lot. Good for him. He can do more. Are you claiming that as false??

Are you fully content w/ what he is doing? If so, that's fine...but, then you must be content w/ the inequities of the world and the fact that one person is worth more than Slovakia...while billions go without.

As stated, he does a lot of good....but he also chooses to keep $100 billion for himself.

If you're cool w/ that, so be it. It's a semi-free country and you're entitled to your position...just as I am.

"Athletes et. al should keep their mouths shut....if they are not giving money"...you forgot the 2nd half of that....try not to intentionally misquote to prove a point.

and...yep, feel free to add "regular people" to that, if you wish...if you aren't doing anything to help, you should shut up...same w/ people that don't vote.

....that goes for grumping about Trump as well, FYI.

Bill Gates can/should do more. Everyone who is capable can/should do more...I'm fully aware that includes me. So, I'll think of something. I'm very, very, very lucky.

I'll keep you posted.

I have no idea if the "ignorant and arrogant" is aimed at me or Trump or some random 72-year-old...or all three, so I'll just let that part lay.

feel free to share your list of things you are doing.

In fact, everybody should....it would give us a sense of hope and great ideas moving forward....things we can all do.

I hope you and yours are healthy and safe.

[donate.doctorswithoutborders.org]

For one thing, I vote and I know voting for POTUS is the only vote that does not count. So that whole 'if you don't vote shut your mouth' thing is bunk, an antiquated, archaic mentality based in belief, or fiction, or perhaps a bit more pointed, flag waving.

It wasn't a point at you but it was a reminder, a good example of society, in how people go on about, in this case, Bill Gates, and that what they do is a lot but, forget all that, he'll never do enough anyway.

Here's one thing: you don't know what he's doing except for what is mentioned in whatever media and seem to think that his total value would make a difference. Have you ever seen something go away because of an amount of money that was involved? You think if Gates just wishes his total value to help the issues will go away? Here's an example:

Jimmy Buffett has done a lot of fundraiser shows for various things over the decades. He does shows for food banks. That's public.

What isn't public is his continuing funding of a feed the homeless program in New Orleans. There's certainly more that he does without anyone publicly knowing about it. He started Last Mango Boatworks and is involved with the Freedom Fighters Outdoors for veterans (Wounded Warriors, etc) to go fishing.

The bit about athletes etc was not an intentional misquote - that's something that is thrown around with entitled abandon by a lot of people that don't know what they (athletes etc) are doing - it's assumptive.

The ignorant and arrogant quip is about Americans. True enough, that does sound like all of them. It's not. I know plenty of Americans (an arrogant term, actually, Amercians - which America? It's casually meant for US citizens but there are 3 Americas so...) that are not entitled or arrogant. What's funny, at least in the last few years, is how social media has become the center of rant and rage... for a lot of people that apparently don't have jobs and rage on about inequality, "standing in solidarity" with people they have zero in common with or are actually with... etc.

So, point is, it was indirectly at you - you were the source for what I hear a lot, you just happened to be a bit more detailed about it. Yeah yeah, everyone has their own opinion... but opinions can be wrong.

COVID-19 has a lot of opinion going on... and a lot of it isn't based in facts but what's, ha ha, spread around on social media and people believing things without, imagine this - READING beyond the headline.

We may not be on the same page but I think we're in the same book. It was more of a 'Oh really?' as opposed to 'YOU'RE WRONG'.

Jo Wood's brother Paul Karslake apparently died just a day after having been admitted to the hospital. The source is The Sun so take that with a grain of salt.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-26 17:31 by Topi.

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Elmo Lewis
It's tragic that things that seemed soooo important 2 weeks ago, no longer are.

Definitely made me re-think my priorities.

I think we're all doing that

When this is over and we can go out and do stuff again, I'm going to be using "It's good to be here, it's good to be anywhere" for sure.

thanks to all for good wishes