I just saw on the news that Russia is sending aid to Italy, planes with masks, ventilators, testing equipment and doctors on board.

"Atalanta v Valencia ‘triggered’ pandemic?"
[www.thedailystar.net]

"Atalanta and Valencia's Champions League game might have been a "trigger" for the coronavirus outbreak in Bergamo, claims an immunologist"

"Valencia have announced 35 per cent of their squad and staff tested positive for coronavirus, linking it to that trip to Milan"

A concordant source in Italian :
[www.corriere.it]

"Come sta il padre del suo collega?
«È morto»."



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-23 15:56 by dcba.

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ryanpow
I just saw on the news that Russia is sending aid to Italy, planes with masks, ventilators, testing equipment and doctors on board.

Yaah, saw the same one, and no doubt that looks good.. Hate to be cynical but Putin is a clever man...

- Doxa

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Doxa

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ryanpow
I just saw on the news that Russia is sending aid to Italy, planes with masks, ventilators, testing equipment and doctors on board.

Yaah, saw the same one, and no doubt that looks good.. Hate to be cynical but Putin is a clever man...

- Doxa

Nope we are stupid by outsourcing a good portion of our manufacturing jobs, in the 1990s to countries such as China, Mexico, Costa Rica, etc.. Now we are at the mercy of these countries to get the supplies such as ventilators, test kits, drugs, gloves masks, that our medical professionals need at this point. So much for Globalism. Well hopefully we can mobilize our companies such as Boeing to help produce these goods.

Congress is still in a civil war and nothing is happening. It is a shame .. A dirty shame. And shame on the unnecessary run on Toilet Paper, Cold Medicine and store price gouging.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-23 16:22 by Chris Fountain.

Finland reportedly closing bars and restaurants and restricting domestic travel.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-23 17:33 by Topi.

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In other news Spanish numbers are "strange", after death numbers that were spiraling out of control (105/193/262/288/391), they have reported "only" 31 deaths for the last 24 hours. It makes no sense...

Ok so "31" must have been an error/partial number, the number is now 434, more in line with what could be feared. They are an even worse path than Italy :-( Talking of Italy let's hope the inflection point seen yesterday is confirmed today, that would really be good news.

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IORR Links : Essential Studio Outtakes CDs : Audio - History of Rarest Outtakes : Audio

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Chris Fountain

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Doxa

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ryanpow
I just saw on the news that Russia is sending aid to Italy, planes with masks, ventilators, testing equipment and doctors on board.

Yaah, saw the same one, and no doubt that looks good.. Hate to be cynical but Putin is a clever man...

- Doxa

Nope we are stupid by outsourcing a good portion of our manufacturing jobs, in the 1990s to countries such as China, Mexico, Costa Rica, etc.. Now we are at the mercy of these countries to get the supplies such as ventilators, test kits,
drugs, gloves masks, that our medical professionals need at this point. So much for Globalism. Well hopefully we can mobilize our companies such as Boeing to help produce these goods.

Congress is still in a civil war and nothing is happening. It is a shame .. A dirty shame. And shame on the unnecessary run on Toilet Paper, Cold Medicine and store price gouging.

We were told we have all the supplies we need, Remember?

Just returned from my local supermarket. Managed to nab a few absolute essentials, but lord, isn’t this pandemic bringing out the very worst in so many? The hoarding is crazy. I visited the alcohol isle to find most of the beer had gone. I was able to pick up 6 bottles of Tyskie, which I’ll shortly be enjoying. Cheers, everyone. Beer and music will be Big Al’s afternoon.

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steffialicia

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Chris Fountain

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Doxa

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ryanpow
I just saw on the news that Russia is sending aid to Italy, planes with masks, ventilators, testing equipment and doctors on board.

Yaah, saw the same one, and no doubt that looks good.. Hate to be cynical but Putin is a clever man...

- Doxa

Nope we are stupid by outsourcing a good portion of our manufacturing jobs, in the 1990s to countries such as China, Mexico, Costa Rica, etc.. Now we are at the mercy of these countries to get the supplies such as ventilators, test kits,
drugs, gloves masks, that our medical professionals need at this point. So much for Globalism. Well hopefully we can mobilize our companies such as Boeing to help produce these goods.

Congress is still in a civil war and nothing is happening. It is a shame .. A dirty shame. And shame on the unnecessary run on Toilet Paper, Cold Medicine and store price gouging.

We were told we have all the supplies we need, Remember?

Shelves empty at local Walmart- Martin County, Florida

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Doxa

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ryanpow
I just saw on the news that Russia is sending aid to Italy, planes with masks, ventilators, testing equipment and doctors on board.

Yaah, saw the same one, and no doubt that looks good.. Hate to be cynical but Putin is a clever man...

- Doxa

I'm thinking the same thing. I'd like to think it's just an act of good will. At any rate it's a good thing they're getting some help.

Professor Hugh Montgomery on coronavirus, how much more aggressive the spread is than the flu.

On one of Dr. John Campbell's recent videos he states 72 hours for the virus to be eliminated on surfaces which is pretty well known. But he also talked about the virus in aerosol form when someone coughs or sneezes. The smaller aerosol particles can stay in the air for up to three hours. For very small aerosol particles (of water), the air itself looks more like a thick soup and the aerosol particles are floating in that "thick soup."

So if you live in an apartment building the hallways could be dangerous and you should at least wear your mask when entering or exiting.

[youtu.be]

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MisterDDDD
Professor Hugh Montgomery on coronavirus, how much more aggressive the spread is than the flu.

Was just about to post that - great piece, very accessible and understandable

Droplet vs. Airborne Transmission

[youtu.be]

MIT article :
"These are 6 of the main differences between flu and coronavirus"
[www.technologyreview.com]

News from Seattle: source is my friend who works there, no print yet details developing. Boeing is shutting down at least the production lines, maybe more.

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crholmstrom
News from Seattle: source is my friend who works there, no print yet details developing. Boeing is shutting down at least the production lines, maybe more.

Amazing it took so long if you think about it. Beyond being the socially responsible thing to do, how many airlines are actually accepting new orders at the moment?

All businesses are going into 'cash preservation' mode right now, so even they are going to feel the pinch, building new inventory is ludicrous at the moment. Maybe they can switch to ventilators?

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gotdablouse
A slight "improvement" in Italy for March 22nd

New cases : +5,560
New deaths : +651

vs

March 21st

New cases : +6,557
New deaths : +793

I hope they've seen the worst of it...

March 23rd:
New cases 4790
New Deaths 602

I guess you need to compare 7 days of figures, not daily to feel confident that Italy may be turning the corner.

Their ratio of cases is 1057: 1million.
That reads 0.0107%. Is that correct? Are the figures (Wordometer) so understated?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-23 19:41 by jlowe.

Details about Boeing shut down:

[www.seattletimes.com]

Good news from Italy. For the 2nd day in a row the curve of deaths is slowing down i.e. not as fast as before.

Mon 23-mar = 6078 => +11% (+602)
Sun 22-mar = 5476 => +13% (+651)
Sat 21-mar = 4825 => +20% (+793)
Fri 20-mar = 4032 => +18% (+627)

ROME (Reuters) - The death toll from an outbreak of coronavirus in Italy has grown by 602 to 6,078, the head of the Civil Protection Agency said on Monday, an 11% increase but the smallest rise in numerical terms since Thursday, suggesting a clear downward trend.

On Sunday, 651 people died. That followed 793 on Saturday and 627 on Friday.

The total number of confirmed cases in Italy rose to 63,927 on Monday from a previous 59,138, an increase of 8%, the Civil Protection Agency said -- the lowest rise in percentage terms since the contagion came to light on Feb. 21.

Italy coronavirus deaths rise by 602 in a day, lifting total death toll to 6,078 by Reuters Rome Italy

Bjornulf



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-23 19:46 by bv.

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ryanpow

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Doxa

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ryanpow
I just saw on the news that Russia is sending aid to Italy, planes with masks, ventilators, testing equipment and doctors on board.

Yaah, saw the same one, and no doubt that looks good.. Hate to be cynical but Putin is a clever man...

- Doxa

I'm thinking the same thing. I'd like to think it's just an act of good will. At any rate it's a good thing they're getting some help.

Exactly. The same goes for China and Cuba that are helping Italy the most at the moment. EU is pretty handicapped at the moment, all the countries busy just to care of their own situation, although just heard the urgent cases in the worst area of France will be helped by its surrounding countries.

- Doxa



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-23 19:59 by Doxa.

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bv
Good news from Italy. For the 2nd day in a row the curve of deaths is slowing down i.e. not as fast as before.

Mon 23-mar = 6078 => +11% (+602)
Sun 22-mar = 5476 => +13% (+651)
Sat 21-mar = 4825 => +20% (+793)
Fri 20-mar = 4032 => +18% (+627)

ROME (Reuters) - The death toll from an outbreak of coronavirus in Italy has grown by 602 to 6,078, the head of the Civil Protection Agency said on Monday, an 11% increase but the smallest rise in numerical terms since Thursday, suggesting a clear downward trend.

On Sunday, 651 people died. That followed 793 on Saturday and 627 on Friday.

The total number of confirmed cases in Italy rose to 63,927 on Monday from a previous 59,138, an increase of 8%, the Civil Protection Agency said -- the lowest rise in percentage terms since the contagion came to light on Feb. 21.

Italy coronavirus deaths rise by 602 in a day, lifting total death toll to 6,078 by Reuters Rome Italy

Yes it's better as well as the number of "new cases" that has dropped significantly : 4789

4207 -> 5322 -> 5986 -> 6557 -> 5560 -> 4789

That's a pretty massive decrease.

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IORR Links : Essential Studio Outtakes CDs : Audio - History of Rarest Outtakes : Audio

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gotdablouse

Quote
bv
Good news from Italy. For the 2nd day in a row the curve of deaths is slowing down i.e. not as fast as before.

Mon 23-mar = 6078 => +11% (+602)
Sun 22-mar = 5476 => +13% (+651)
Sat 21-mar = 4825 => +20% (+793)
Fri 20-mar = 4032 => +18% (+627)

ROME (Reuters) - The death toll from an outbreak of coronavirus in Italy has grown by 602 to 6,078, the head of the Civil Protection Agency said on Monday, an 11% increase but the smallest rise in numerical terms since Thursday, suggesting a clear downward trend.

On Sunday, 651 people died. That followed 793 on Saturday and 627 on Friday.

The total number of confirmed cases in Italy rose to 63,927 on Monday from a previous 59,138, an increase of 8%, the Civil Protection Agency said -- the lowest rise in percentage terms since the contagion came to light on Feb. 21.

Italy coronavirus deaths rise by 602 in a day, lifting total death toll to 6,078 by Reuters Rome Italy

Yes it's better as well as the number of "new cases" that has dropped significantly : 4789

4207 -> 5322 -> 5986 -> 6557 -> 5560 -> 4789

That's a pretty massive decrease.

Unfortunately the numbers in France are taking a turn for the worse in terms of new cases. It was to be expected but still, it's a shock...

New Cases :1210 -> 1097 -> 1404 -> 1861 -> 1617 -> 1847 -> 1559 -> 3838
New Deaths : 21 -> 27 -> 89 -> 108 -> 78 -> 112 -> 112 -> 186

It looks like we're 10 days behind Italy, it's gonna be hard...

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IORR Links : Essential Studio Outtakes CDs : Audio - History of Rarest Outtakes : Audio



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-23 20:41 by gotdablouse.

Ontario is closing all non-essential businesses for 2 weeks effective Wednesday. And schools, scheduled to re-open on April 6, won’t. I expect it will be close to a lock-down very soon.

Chris, this is not about "trusting" anyone, but having pure concrete help by the means of doctors and equipment that means something for Italy now. It's good that in the middle of this crisis someone can provide that (like it is understable that many, like their fellow EU countries or USA, can't). I won't dear to speculate with the motivation of Russia, but I guess for China it is important for them to do whatever they can since they have already a bad reputation for all this, and they have the muscles for that. As far as Cuba go, if there is anything good in that god's forgotten country that's their health system: there are more doctors per capita in Cuba than in anywhere in the world. They already were heavily involved in helping the Ebola virus epidemic in 2014/5, and now seemingly is their another moment to 'shine', or to show they are at least something good for. I don't think the Italian people much complain that the help derives from a 'politically incorrect' country if people's lives are saved.

- Doxa

P.S. I edited my last passage, since I saw Chris's post was delated, so that was totally irrelevant observation now.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-23 21:55 by Doxa.

This is an update of the week-to-week coronavirus numbers.

As mentioned in a post last week, I am looking at the week-to-week accumulated number of deaths, and most important the rate which this number is changing from week to week. This is a much better way of looking at the problem vs day by day, as the cyclus of the coronavirus disease is weeks and not days.

Spain had the most dramatic numbers two weeks ago, with a multiplication rate of 17. This rate is now down to 6 for the past week, and hopefully it will go down further this week.

Italy had a multiplication factor of 5 two weeks ago, and last week they were down to 3. The absolute accumulated numbers are high, but the multiplication factor is promising when we are looking for a slow-down of the fatalities rate.

France, Germany, UK and USA are all having 5 to 8 in multiplication factors, which is dramatic. Hopefully they will have lower numbers next week.

China and South Korea are examples of how it is possible to flatten the curve. China had large numbers, but the rate is down to 1.02 i.e. just 2% increase in deaths week to week, which is possible to handle. South Korea has got low total numbers so the rate of 1.39 meaning an increase of 39% week to week is possible to manage, as long as the trend is going down.



1.0000 = No more new deaths, the virus is contained
2.0 = Deaths double vs previous week
5.0 = Deaths five times higher vs previous week

All numbers are official, sources like the below may be used if you want to look at the rates of other countries:

[www.worldometers.info]

Statistical details and background information:

I posted a previous version Tuesday morning last week. After having looked into how numbers are reported, I changed my date of reporting into Sunday to Sunday. This means I will be able to update this table every Monday morning. USA numbers are one day late vs Europe and Asia, so the numbers you get on Monday morning are really from Saturday.

Number of tested people, and number of positive coronavirus tests, are not to be used in understanding how big the problem of the coronavirus is. The testing is limited in many countries. Some say 50% of all do not know they are having the virus, so they will never ask for a test. The death rate, however, is accurate, and that is a measure on the load of the health system, as many fatalities are in hospital with respirators (ventilators).

Single digit numbers in calculations will not give accurate data, so they are just resulting in a sign of "-" meaning no significant data available (too low numbers).

I have listed the largest countries in the world, basically G7 minus Japan (limited data available), plus China, South Korea and Spain. These will give an accurate picture on how the coronavirus is developing at the most fatal part of the stage, week-by-week.

Bjornulf



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-23 21:31 by bv.

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dcba
"Atalanta v Valencia ‘triggered’ pandemic?"

Sure ,
a crowd of 50,000 spectators in S.Siro Milan
Sici

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bv
Good news from Italy. For the 2nd day in a row the curve of deaths is slowing down i.e. not as fast as before.

the new restrictions work wery well and even the coldest weather helps keep people at home. Yesterdays rain and today come back winter wind
Sici



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-23 21:27 by Sici.

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Sici

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bv
Good news from Italy. For the 2nd day in a row the curve of deaths is slowing down i.e. not as fast as before.

the new restrictions work wery well and even the coldest weather helps keep people at home. Yesterdays rain and today come back winter wind
Sici

I am an optimist by nature. Normally I do not trust the number of cases much, but the fact that the total number of positive coronavirus cases are down in Italy is really great news, as I assume they keep a high rate in testing. The worst could be behind in time for Italy, I think, and hope.

Bjornulf

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SomeTorontoGirl
Ontario is closing all non-essential businesses for 2 weeks effective Wednesday. And schools, scheduled to re-open on April 6, won’t. I expect it will be close to a lock-down very soon.

In the Netherlands we also had the same date, today they decide to extend it the first of June

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