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Some of those who died were suffering from several diseases, it is not sure that they died from corona only. The situation is terrible anyway.
That's why this virus is so dangerous for elderly people, who often have other weaknesses/diseases.
German´s top virologist, Professor Christian Drosten, about everything
you need to know [in English]:
[www.zeit.de]
ZEIT ONLINE: Life as we know it is changing at the moment. Mr. Drosten, are you worried?
Christian Drosten: Like many other people, I, too, am in denial about the current situation to a certain extent. I hope for my family and for myself that it won't affect us. But it very well could. And then there are others who are ignoring our new reality completely.
ZEIT ONLINE: People in this country, though, are listening to you and what you say carries great weight. What effect is this role having on you?
Drosten: I just sort of slipped into it. It's also becoming a bit overwhelming, all the media inquiries, advising politicians. I'm not a politician, I'm a scientist. I'm happy to explain what I know. Scientific findings must be communicated to everyone transparently, so that we all can get an idea of the situation. But I'm also honest about what I don't know. I always have been.
ZEIT ONLINE: The country is grinding to a halt. Daycare centers and schools have been closed nationwide as of this week. Is the government reacting appropriately at the moment?
Drosten: Few of the decisions made in recent days were purely evidence-based. Many were political, and certainly correct. Some were surely influenced by the strict measures in neighboring countries. But either way: I have the impression that a switch has now been flipped in all states across Germany. Now a decision has been made to ban public events and close daycares and schools.
ZEIT ONLINE: It is said that you played a central consultative role in the decision to close schools. Was it the correct decision to do so now?
Drosten: I don't know. It probably won't be clear until later whether it was the right time to do this. I've always maintained that scientists from other disciplines must also be heard, and that kind of decision is outside the realm of competence of an epidemiologically trained virologist like myself. I don't see my job as condensing the truth, but as explaining aspects of the truth and allowing for uncertainties and saying, 'We don't know' – which makes a political decision necessary. And as long as it's communicated as a political decision, I think that's fine.
ZEIT ONLINE: Will the measures work?
Drosten: Hopefully, they will decisively change the dynamics of the disease's transmission. It's possible that we'll be able to judge this by Easter. Maybe we'll see that fewer people have been infected than we would have expected amid the current exponential growth. That the curve has grown flatter. Initially, however, this will have less of an impact on the death rate, because some of those who will die before Easter are already infected now or will be in the coming days. What's more, the recent decisions won't have an immediate effect. It will take a few days. Some things have become normalized. Many people have figured out childcare solutions, for example. And more and more people are understanding that they shouldn't meet up in groups anymore. It will take some time for people to get used to this.
ZEIT ONLINE: Stricter measures, such as forbidding people from leaving their homes for non-essential reasons, are under consideration – largely because apparently not everyone has understood that they should stay home and reduce their contact with others in order to protect the community at large.
Drosten: I think that in the next few days, the penny will finally drop. These measures are still quite new, but most people will have grasped it. There will always be some people who are incorrigible. Of course, people like that don't exist in China – there, they are censured. But I'm glad that we don't live in that kind of society. And I'm not sure whether it's even necessary, in terms of the overall epidemic, to find every last person who's not following the rules.
ZEIT ONLINE: So, given the corona parties that have been taking place, you wouldn't say: "From now on, no one is allowed to go outside?"
Drosten: Who am I to say such a thing? I can say that as a virologist, in my field, up to a certain point, this is the way things are. Other things just don't fall into my area of competence. Then I'm no longer a scientist, but a private citizen. I don't have a mandate from voters. But I do believe that by shutting down bars and restaurants, cancelling major events and closing daycares and schools, a great deal has already been achieved. The goal is to prevent as many people as possible from coming into contact with one another.
ZEIT ONLINE: What's your assessment of how Germany managed the earliest stages of this outbreak?
Drosten: I believe that Germany recognized its own outbreak very early on. We're two or three weeks ahead of some of our neighbors. We've been able to do this because we've been doing so many diagnostics, so much testing. Of course, we missed some cases in this early stage, that always happens. But I don't think we overlooked a major outbreak. This assertion is also supported by the fact that we are seeing cases in Germany increase as expected. But we're also seeing that we have fewer deaths than other countries. One could deduce, therefore, that we're not that far off from the total number of cases we have. We certainly aren't identifying all of the cases, but relatively, we are seeing more than other countries that are testing less.
ZEIT ONLINE: Like Italy, for instance?
Drosten: In Italy, tests are apparently primarily performed on people who get admitted to the hospital. That's because people there know that there aren't enough tests to go around anyway, so they initially stay home, even if they have symptoms. They only go to the hospital if their condition worsens. There, they arrive with shortness of breath and are immediately admitted to the intensive care unit, where they are then tested for the first time. This is why the average age of recorded cases is much higher in Italy than here in Germany. I assume that many young Italians are or were infected without ever being detected. This also explains the virus' supposedly higher mortality rate there.
ZEIT ONLINE: How much longer will we be able to keep up with testing in Germany?
Drosten: At some point, this won't be possible anymore. We're simply not able to increase our testing capacity as quickly as the number of cases rises. Then two things will coincide: First, some of the people who are now sick with COVID-19 will die. And second, because we won't be able to test everyone, our statistics will be incomplete. Our fatality rate will then also rise. It will appear that the virus has become more dangerous, but this will be a statistical artifact, a distortion. It will simply reflect what's already starting to happen: We're missing more and more infections.
ZEIT ONLINE: What can we do about it?
Drosten: We have to take shortcuts. If one person in a household tests positive, we could, for instance, consider the entire household to be positive, even without a test. Because we know that is what is going to happen: If one family member gets infected, they infect everyone else. If you say right away that the entire family is positive, you save yourself a lot of testing. Imagine that you're infected, and the next day your wife has to go and stand in line. And then imagine the test doesn't detect her infection yet, and she has to come back. That doesn't make any sense. So, it's better if the entire family isolates at home from the get-go. They're already doing this in the Netherlands and I'm going to suggest that Germany follow suit in discussions with health authorities.
ZEIT ONLINE: What other options are there?
Drosten: At some point, suspected cases will be reported only on the basis of symptoms and then the statistics will begin to reflect this. At the same time, available tests will have to be reserved for those people most at risk. If an otherwise healthy student is at home on her couch watching Netflix, as a general practitioner, I don't need to know whether she's positive or not. She should just stay there and get better. But when a 70-year-old patient of mine gets sick and is isolated at home, then I'd like to test him in order to then be able to call every two days and ask how his breathing is. That way, he can be admitted to a hospital early enough and doesn't show up to an out-patient clinic with a clotted lung and have to immediately be transferred to an intensive care unit.
ZEIT ONLINE: Will we soon have tests that are faster than the current ones?
Drosten: Some are already commercially available, mostly those that detect antibodies. Their quality probably varies. And they only work after 10 days, since that's when patients have developed antibodies. In the first 10 days, these tests are blind, so to speak. We have to wait until antigen tests are developed, which can actually detect viral proteins. These tests will work like a pregnancy test – and they'll also provide results just as quickly. If the tests work well, they'll be able to completely replace the current ones. Then people won't have to wait in lines anymore. I hope this will happen by May.
ZEIT ONLINE: By then, millions of people could be infected. How well are German clinics prepared for that eventuality?
Drosten: No matter how you count or who you speak to: We have to bring down the number of cases now. Otherwise we won't be able to handle it. Otherwise we'll have exactly the same problems as Italy within a few weeks. We do have more beds, and maybe we're a little better trained. But even though intensive care in Germany is good, there's still not enough of it. Based on the current figures, we would need – even by conservative estimates – to double our current intensive-care capacity in order to even come close to ventilating everyone who needs it.
ZEIT ONLINE: Germany's federal and state governments have now adopted an emergency plan. Additional capacities for minor cases are to be created and the number of intensive care beds doubled.
Drosten: That's a good plan. And in order to do this, we need the time that we hope to buy with the current measures. Now is the phase in which ventilators are still being ordered and hospital wards cleared. All this (points to a nearby building) belongs to the hospital. Normally it's used for offices. Now it's being cleared out and beds are being set up inside – including ones with ventilators. Processes like these take a few weeks. That's what the weeks we're trying to buy ourselves now are for, and not primarily for developing a vaccine.
ZEIT ONLINE: Let's look at the virus itself. You have been researching coronaviruses for many years. What has surprised you most about SARS-CoV-2 so far?
Drosten: Clearly the fact that it replicates in the throat. With the SARS virus, which caused the outbreak in 2002-2003, we were never able to isolate it in the throat. SARS patients had far fewer viruses in their bodies and the pathogens were far less infectious. In addition, the new coronavirus contains an astonishing biological innovation: a protease cleavage site in the surface protein of the virus. In the case of bird flu, for example, whether this site is there or not makes the difference whether the pathogen makes poultry very sick or not.
ZEIT ONLINE: What's so special about this cleavage site?
Drosten: The surface protein must be cut so that the virus can mature and enter the next cell. And this cleavage site may enable the virus to be cut even when it's only just been released from the last infected cell. It's like a sheet of paper that's easier to tear off the notepad because it's perforated. And SARS-CoV-2 has this perforation.
ZEIT ONLINE: What does this mean for the disease?
Drosten: We don't know for sure yet. It could allow the virus to already be mature when it leaves the cell – ready to enter the next one. This could also be the reason why SARS-CoV-2 replicates so well in the throat and why it can be transmitted so easily. We now have to figure all that out.
ZEIT ONLINE: Just like the question as to the precise case fatality rate.
Drosten: Right now, there's actually another variable that's more important: the so-called infection fatality rate. This indicates the percentage of infected people who die – including those who have no or only a few symptoms and are therefore not recorded as cases. As such, it also serves as an estimate of how high the number of unreported cases is. How many people who contract the disease don't show any symptoms at all, or only have sore throats? Among the first infected people in Germany, whom we closely examined for a study, there were quite a few. At the moment, I often hear that 80 percent of cases have only mild symptoms. But my impression is: Maybe it's even a lot more. That would be important to know.
ZEIT ONLINE: Elderly and sick people are particularly at risk of contracting COVID-19. Yet over and over again, there are also reports of people in their early or mid-30s who have to be admitted to intensive care or who even die. Why is that?
Drosten: This is also the case with other respiratory diseases, that younger people sometimes fall seriously ill. But we often don't know a lot about people. In the media, you'll here: "A 35-year-old is in intensive care." But a 35-year-old can have massive underlying diseases. We know, for example, that a high body mass index is a major risk factor for COVID-19, as is coronary heart disease, i.e. a narrowing of the coronary vessels due to vascular calcification. Pneumonia puts a massive strain on the cardiovascular system. If that system is already damaged, the extra strain can sometimes overwhelm it. And there are many people between the ages of 35 and 50 who live with such risk factors. Another hypothesis is that someone may inhale a huge dose of the virus directly into their lungs. Then the virus immediately replicates deep within the respiratory tract without having previously triggered any immune response in the throat. Then people might get really sick right away and the body has no remedy for it yet. Like I said, it's a hypothesis.
ZEIT ONLINE: According to what we know so far, men are more likely to fall ill than women. Are there clues as to why that might be?
Drosten: We don't know for sure yet. It's possible that risk factors like the ones we just discussed are more common in men. Some studies also suggest that the binding site the virus uses to enter cells is especially common on the cells of Asians, and especially males. But honestly, I think this explanation fits into the picture well and that's why it was interpreted this way. Besides, the virus is also spreading outside China, so I don't think this argument is very likely. There just isn't any good data on this yet.
ZEIT ONLINE: You've often said that neither drugs nor vaccines will be available in time for this outbreak. Is there no hope at all?
Drosten: It is conceivable that the situation will become so bad that regulations will be suspended. One could imagine certain aspects of vaccine approval being ignored during this crisis and vaccines that haven't been tested well being used on people. These are far-fetched scenarios, and they're speculative. But if things get very bad – and I don't want to rule that out at the moment – something like this could be conceivable. A number of biotech companies have had vaccine candidates in the pipeline for quite some time.
ZEIT ONLINE: In the U.S. this week, a volunteer test subject received a possible vaccine manufactured by a private biotech company. It is based on mRNA, so small pieces of genetic material. Is this the right approach?
Drosten: I can't really say yet. I think it's a quick approach. I don't know if it's also the mass approach we need right now. At the moment, this would perhaps more likely be a surface protein of the virus that can be produced en masse and against which the immune system produces antibodies in large quantities. Some companies are pursuing this approach. That kind of vaccine would then be earmarked for risk groups. If things were to get really bad, one could imagine something like this happening.
ZEIT ONLINE: At what point would you say things are bad enough for such steps to be taken?
Drosten: I can't and don't want to imagine that at the moment.
ZEIT ONLINE: Do you consider any medications promising?
Drosten: I see the antiviral drug remdesivir as the best option. It was originally developed to treat Ebola. Studies are currently underway, but at the moment, the manufacturer only permits it to be used on people who are already seriously ill, and only then under a special protocol and only within a small timeframe. Ideally, it would be possible to give it to patients sooner, and for that, much greater quantities would have to be available. We now have to wait and see what the first results are.
ZEIT ONLINE: And other drugs?
Drosten: I don't see any real alternatives. Neither the malaria drug chloroquine nor the HIV drugs ritonavir/lopinavir. Both have been the subject of clinical studies, but the results haven't been convincing.
ZEIT ONLINE: Italy is apparently considering experimenting with treating patients with the plasma of people who have already recovered from the infection.
Drosten: It is a tempting idea. There still isn't any published data on the treatment, but there are a lot of young, healthy patients who would be perfect plasma donors. When they become infected, they produce the best antibodies around. If they are administered to patients at the right moment, then it is certainly a possibility. I can imagine that in maybe two months, the first small analyses of case studies – potentially also from Germany – will be available. But extremely rapid results, at least on a large scale, cannot be expected from all of these measures.
ZEIT ONLINE: What about from rising springtime temperatures?
Drosten: This effect isn't likely to be particularly pronounced. It won't be able to stop the outbreak, but it may help a bit. And combined with the isolation measures, I strongly expect that we will see an impact in a month.
ZEIT ONLINE: And then? What happens after that?
Drosten: We perhaps have to assume that from a societal perspective, we'll have to go through a year in a state of emergency. But we probably won't continue pursuing all measures precisely as we have now introduced them. We will be able to, we will have to, adjust them. Some things will be phased out. But during the initial phase between now and the week after Easter, we really have to take rigorous action and keep a close eye on the development of the number of cases.
ZEIT ONLINE: A year of a state of emergency? What will our lives look like during this period?
Drosten: Nobody knows. I can't imagine it yet either. More than anything, a solution for our schools must be found. That is the most important thing. At the universities, I think it's OK to lose a semester or two. But losing an entire schoolyear is simply too difficult because there is so much depending on it, not least for our economy. We'll have to find a solution. And, of course, also for those who are particularly at risk.
ZEIT ONLINE: What kinds of things do you have in mind?
Drosten: Certain arrangements could be made specifically for such risk groups, for example by rigorously testing the elderly and those at risk early on and giving them priority when it comes to hospital admissions. And those at higher risk will have to continue to work from home, for an extended period. It could be possible to find ways to isolate elderly people at home. There could be shuttle services for them, and groceries would have to be delivered to them. Volunteers could help, perhaps even the German military. And in day-to-day life, children would have to be kept away from those at risk as strictly as possible.
ZEIT ONLINE: And then the schools could be opened again?
Drosten: Perhaps measures could be imposed, like half the school can use only these hallways and the other half the other hallways. There would no longer be a long recess, and perhaps no short ones either. Common rooms would no longer be used and would be locked. With such measures, you can reduce effective group sizes in the schools. That would require some planning, but we have time between now and the week after Easter. The most important thing is that we need scientific data regarding the situation at schools.
ZEIT ONLINE: And what if grandparents want to see their grandchildren again?
Drosten: Perhaps it will be the case that grandchildren will first have to undergo a test when they want to visit grandma and grandpa to be sure that they don't infect them. Such details now need to be clarified. With the political decisions that have been made, social life has been put on hold. But hopefully adjustments can be made with the help of scientific findings and modelling that apply specifically to Germany.
ZEIT ONLINE: When will people be able to go back to work?
Drosten: In the medical world, consideration is already being given to the idea of testing people so they can go to work. Once antigen tests are available, that could be expanded to include other occupational groups. Plus, if we assume that during the current wave of infections, perhaps 10 to 15 million people will become infected in Germany by autumn, we will soon have a large number of people with antibodies. People who are immune. Then, there will be doctors and nurses who can work without masks, and in other occupational groups, there will also be people who say: "I've made it through." And their number will continually increase.
ZEIT ONLINE: For how long will those people be immune?
Drosten: Those who have become infected will likely be immune for the rest of the pandemic, I would think – for a couple of years. And even if you were to become infected again, then it would be experienced as a harmless cold. The second infection wouldn't be as bad. That, at least, would be my best guess at present.
ZEIT ONLINE: How can we find out who has already been infected?
Drosten: By performing large, cross-sectional studies in the population, once in summer and again in October. Ideally it could be done with the help of blood banks, where blood is already being taken and stored. The goal must be that of establishing a decent estimate for each age group as to how many people have made it through the infection and now have antibodies. By doing so, it will be possible to find out whether we have reached the 60 to 70 percent level, which is the share of the population that will likely ultimately be infected.
ZEIT ONLINE: And then the virus will be gone after a year and a half?
Drosten: No, it will likely follow the path of the other coronaviruses that merely give you a cold. We will have to live with them, but they aren't as dangerous to us anymore once with have withstood the current outbreak.
ZEIT ONLINE: That all sounds like an immense challenge. Are we up to it as a society?
Drosten: It will be a difficult time and there will be huge economic losses. But yes, of course we'll get through it. We have to.
Translators: Chris Cottrell and Charles Hawley
In another interview he said about footballmatches in stadiums (that includes packed stadiums for concerts as well):
“I don't believe at all that we'll be filling football stadiums again in the foreseeable future. That is superfluous. That will not happen until this time next year," explains virologist Christian Drosten in an interview with “stern”.
One should also mention Hong Kong! Ever since SARS (2003) we have passed through Hong Kong around 20 times. And every time on the airport we saw heat cameras and airport staff dealing with lots of travellers wearing masks! That country (or part of China, whatever) was very well prepared to start with and the results can be seen in the daily statistics.
So maybe (or better: for sure) the lesson to take from this corona virus pandemic is ... do like the Hong Kong professionals have done! So if (actually not "if" but "when") any new corona offspring in the future surfaces, the world would be much better prepared.
Meanwhile, like many on this thread already have mentioned: stay focussed and ... listen to the experts!
There are studies being done right now that strongly suggest people with high blood pressure is the group most at risk.
Apparently 75% of people in Italy who have died of Coronavirus had high blood pressure.
Nate
This is a very important interview. I hope everyone take their time to read it through. Also our leaders. What we need now is expert facts like this, and not propaganda. Thanks for posting it!
Bjornulf
I believe what they (not your posted article) are saying as far as warm weather is, if someone sneezes/coughs, the humidity in the air may cause the virus to not carry so far. So rather then spraying 6 feet (there's that 6 foot number), it may only be 2 feet instead. Of course, it can still land on any surface regardless of the temp/humidity, so all else does not change. It's just the direct spray hitting you that may be cut down.
My thoughts are with you Stone since I have friends in Orvieto. Emailed them last night and nothing back. They usually reply pretty quick. Was going to go to hospital to visit the patients today but you gave me a reality check.
Funny some of those observations Doxa. Privileged as well to be working mostly from home. Also, so much more quality time with the family, playing basketball, frisbee in the back yard, or board games or even just netflixing.
I prepared a couple of months ago as this was apparent to get out of hand, so now rarely need to go out.
We have some elderly neighbours with health conditions nearby so I reached out to them and told them to let me know whenever they may need something from the store and i would go out on their behalf so they needn't risk themselves.
Anyway, we'll get through this, but sadly not everyone. It makes me angry how slow governments have been to move, and how people are still not modelling behaviors that are needed to stem the exponential growth. That is taking something that would probably have been manageable, into something that is now out of control.
Stay safe everyone.
Thanks Thomas for posting. Christina Drosten is one of the few I trust with his statements. And also that we will see football games in public in stadiums until next year. I think relalistic. Stone's concerts this year are unrealistic. Drosten had already warned of this extent on German television weeks ago. Despite his warning, the carnival which is very popular in Germany was held. With the result that a hotspot was created at a carnival event, the first larger one in Germany and meanwhile some of the circle have died.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-22 19:32 by thomas guitar.
This. There is an interesting video I saw that I won't post because it is political but it shows the response from Feb and early March.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-22 19:54 by daspyknows.
I think we may have seen a break as well...hopefully in the coming days it will continue a trend.
I think the US on the other hand is several days/weeks from a peak...8149 new cases, so far, today. [EDIT, change downward made to the total, thankfully]
Blows away everything to this point, but just a reality insofar as testing is finally being done. Actual number of infections are much higher.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-22 21:48 by treaclefingers.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
windmelody
()
Date: March 22, 2020 11:10
This is a very sad and serious situation. My best wishes to everyone one this site. Yet I would like to write one thing: If I am informed correctly, anybody who dies in Italy these days and is tested positive on corona, is declared "corona dead". It is not sure, that this is a completely reliable way to deal with this catastrophe.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
desertblues68
()
Date: March 22, 2020 11:20
My parents are elderly and in Italy I live in London and sometimes find it hard to sleep. Hope
you are all well and safe
you are all well and safe
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
DandelionPowderman
()
Date: March 22, 2020 11:31
Quote
windmelody
This is a very sad and serious situation. My best wishes to everyone one this site. Yet I would like to write one thing: If I am informed correctly, anybody who dies in Italy these days and is tested positive on corona, is declared "corona dead". It is not sure, that this is a completely reliable way to deal with this catastrophe.
What do you suggest?
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
windmelody
()
Date: March 22, 2020 11:38
Quote
DandelionPowdermanQuote
windmelody
This is a very sad and serious situation. My best wishes to everyone one this site. Yet I would like to write one thing: If I am informed correctly, anybody who dies in Italy these days and is tested positive on corona, is declared "corona dead". It is not sure, that this is a completely reliable way to deal with this catastrophe.
What do you suggest?
Some of those who died were suffering from several diseases, it is not sure that they died from corona only. The situation is terrible anyway.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
DandelionPowderman
()
Date: March 22, 2020 11:47
Quote
windmelodyQuote
DandelionPowdermanQuote
windmelody
This is a very sad and serious situation. My best wishes to everyone one this site. Yet I would like to write one thing: If I am informed correctly, anybody who dies in Italy these days and is tested positive on corona, is declared "corona dead". It is not sure, that this is a completely reliable way to deal with this catastrophe.
What do you suggest?
Some of those who died were suffering from several diseases, it is not sure that they died from corona only. The situation is terrible anyway.
That's why this virus is so dangerous for elderly people, who often have other weaknesses/diseases.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
crholmstrom
()
Date: March 22, 2020 12:36
Here's a disturbing article about how Washington state is preparing to triage patients like they are doing in Italy should the health care system become overwhelmed. That is looking more likely all the time.
[www.seattletimes.com]
[www.seattletimes.com]
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
bv
()
Date: March 22, 2020 13:01
I do understand people are angry. Blame it on the leaders. Blame it on some others. But right now, I think it is time to listen to science and facts, the experts, and not to be angry or making false hope.
Forget about the number of tests or positive tests. Except for South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and China, few countries do test every person asking for a test. There is no capacity. Yesterday Norway had tested 50,000 people, out of our 5 million population. That is 1% of all being tested. Out of all tests, 19 out of 20 tests are negative, but the 20th i.e. 5% are positive, and sure of great importance to contain that person and everyone in near contact. So the number of positive tests in my country do only reflect those who are tested, with sympthoms, out of may not tested.
I followed a press conference at the White House yesterday. They said they had tested a total of 200,000 people so far, out of the U.S. population of 330 million people. That is 0.06% of the population.
USA are in desperate need of a complete shutdown. Not state by state over time, but completely and right now. It will hurt the economy, for sure, but the alternative might be worst case 2.2 million deaths from the coronavirus, as told by an American specialist based at the University of Oxford UK live on CNN today. Those are horror numbers, worst case, for sure, but remember, we do not have any protection at all, nobody is immune, and if the virus is out of control, it will hit the entire population.
Bjornulf
Edited 5 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-22 13:13 by bv.
Forget about the number of tests or positive tests. Except for South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and China, few countries do test every person asking for a test. There is no capacity. Yesterday Norway had tested 50,000 people, out of our 5 million population. That is 1% of all being tested. Out of all tests, 19 out of 20 tests are negative, but the 20th i.e. 5% are positive, and sure of great importance to contain that person and everyone in near contact. So the number of positive tests in my country do only reflect those who are tested, with sympthoms, out of may not tested.
I followed a press conference at the White House yesterday. They said they had tested a total of 200,000 people so far, out of the U.S. population of 330 million people. That is 0.06% of the population.
USA are in desperate need of a complete shutdown. Not state by state over time, but completely and right now. It will hurt the economy, for sure, but the alternative might be worst case 2.2 million deaths from the coronavirus, as told by an American specialist based at the University of Oxford UK live on CNN today. Those are horror numbers, worst case, for sure, but remember, we do not have any protection at all, nobody is immune, and if the virus is out of control, it will hit the entire population.
Bjornulf
Edited 5 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-22 13:13 by bv.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
TooTough
()
Date: March 22, 2020 13:14
Quote
bv
First we have to fight the virus. It will take may be half a year. May be a year or more. [...] I can not see any tour this year, and there will be no economy private or enterprise wise willing to pay for a tour next year. Sorry folks, it is time to pull the heads out of the ground and face the reality.
German´s top virologist, Professor Christian Drosten, about everything
you need to know [in English]:
[www.zeit.de]
ZEIT ONLINE: Life as we know it is changing at the moment. Mr. Drosten, are you worried?
Christian Drosten: Like many other people, I, too, am in denial about the current situation to a certain extent. I hope for my family and for myself that it won't affect us. But it very well could. And then there are others who are ignoring our new reality completely.
ZEIT ONLINE: People in this country, though, are listening to you and what you say carries great weight. What effect is this role having on you?
Drosten: I just sort of slipped into it. It's also becoming a bit overwhelming, all the media inquiries, advising politicians. I'm not a politician, I'm a scientist. I'm happy to explain what I know. Scientific findings must be communicated to everyone transparently, so that we all can get an idea of the situation. But I'm also honest about what I don't know. I always have been.
ZEIT ONLINE: The country is grinding to a halt. Daycare centers and schools have been closed nationwide as of this week. Is the government reacting appropriately at the moment?
Drosten: Few of the decisions made in recent days were purely evidence-based. Many were political, and certainly correct. Some were surely influenced by the strict measures in neighboring countries. But either way: I have the impression that a switch has now been flipped in all states across Germany. Now a decision has been made to ban public events and close daycares and schools.
ZEIT ONLINE: It is said that you played a central consultative role in the decision to close schools. Was it the correct decision to do so now?
Drosten: I don't know. It probably won't be clear until later whether it was the right time to do this. I've always maintained that scientists from other disciplines must also be heard, and that kind of decision is outside the realm of competence of an epidemiologically trained virologist like myself. I don't see my job as condensing the truth, but as explaining aspects of the truth and allowing for uncertainties and saying, 'We don't know' – which makes a political decision necessary. And as long as it's communicated as a political decision, I think that's fine.
ZEIT ONLINE: Will the measures work?
Drosten: Hopefully, they will decisively change the dynamics of the disease's transmission. It's possible that we'll be able to judge this by Easter. Maybe we'll see that fewer people have been infected than we would have expected amid the current exponential growth. That the curve has grown flatter. Initially, however, this will have less of an impact on the death rate, because some of those who will die before Easter are already infected now or will be in the coming days. What's more, the recent decisions won't have an immediate effect. It will take a few days. Some things have become normalized. Many people have figured out childcare solutions, for example. And more and more people are understanding that they shouldn't meet up in groups anymore. It will take some time for people to get used to this.
ZEIT ONLINE: Stricter measures, such as forbidding people from leaving their homes for non-essential reasons, are under consideration – largely because apparently not everyone has understood that they should stay home and reduce their contact with others in order to protect the community at large.
Drosten: I think that in the next few days, the penny will finally drop. These measures are still quite new, but most people will have grasped it. There will always be some people who are incorrigible. Of course, people like that don't exist in China – there, they are censured. But I'm glad that we don't live in that kind of society. And I'm not sure whether it's even necessary, in terms of the overall epidemic, to find every last person who's not following the rules.
ZEIT ONLINE: So, given the corona parties that have been taking place, you wouldn't say: "From now on, no one is allowed to go outside?"
Drosten: Who am I to say such a thing? I can say that as a virologist, in my field, up to a certain point, this is the way things are. Other things just don't fall into my area of competence. Then I'm no longer a scientist, but a private citizen. I don't have a mandate from voters. But I do believe that by shutting down bars and restaurants, cancelling major events and closing daycares and schools, a great deal has already been achieved. The goal is to prevent as many people as possible from coming into contact with one another.
ZEIT ONLINE: What's your assessment of how Germany managed the earliest stages of this outbreak?
Drosten: I believe that Germany recognized its own outbreak very early on. We're two or three weeks ahead of some of our neighbors. We've been able to do this because we've been doing so many diagnostics, so much testing. Of course, we missed some cases in this early stage, that always happens. But I don't think we overlooked a major outbreak. This assertion is also supported by the fact that we are seeing cases in Germany increase as expected. But we're also seeing that we have fewer deaths than other countries. One could deduce, therefore, that we're not that far off from the total number of cases we have. We certainly aren't identifying all of the cases, but relatively, we are seeing more than other countries that are testing less.
ZEIT ONLINE: Like Italy, for instance?
Drosten: In Italy, tests are apparently primarily performed on people who get admitted to the hospital. That's because people there know that there aren't enough tests to go around anyway, so they initially stay home, even if they have symptoms. They only go to the hospital if their condition worsens. There, they arrive with shortness of breath and are immediately admitted to the intensive care unit, where they are then tested for the first time. This is why the average age of recorded cases is much higher in Italy than here in Germany. I assume that many young Italians are or were infected without ever being detected. This also explains the virus' supposedly higher mortality rate there.
ZEIT ONLINE: How much longer will we be able to keep up with testing in Germany?
Drosten: At some point, this won't be possible anymore. We're simply not able to increase our testing capacity as quickly as the number of cases rises. Then two things will coincide: First, some of the people who are now sick with COVID-19 will die. And second, because we won't be able to test everyone, our statistics will be incomplete. Our fatality rate will then also rise. It will appear that the virus has become more dangerous, but this will be a statistical artifact, a distortion. It will simply reflect what's already starting to happen: We're missing more and more infections.
ZEIT ONLINE: What can we do about it?
Drosten: We have to take shortcuts. If one person in a household tests positive, we could, for instance, consider the entire household to be positive, even without a test. Because we know that is what is going to happen: If one family member gets infected, they infect everyone else. If you say right away that the entire family is positive, you save yourself a lot of testing. Imagine that you're infected, and the next day your wife has to go and stand in line. And then imagine the test doesn't detect her infection yet, and she has to come back. That doesn't make any sense. So, it's better if the entire family isolates at home from the get-go. They're already doing this in the Netherlands and I'm going to suggest that Germany follow suit in discussions with health authorities.
ZEIT ONLINE: What other options are there?
Drosten: At some point, suspected cases will be reported only on the basis of symptoms and then the statistics will begin to reflect this. At the same time, available tests will have to be reserved for those people most at risk. If an otherwise healthy student is at home on her couch watching Netflix, as a general practitioner, I don't need to know whether she's positive or not. She should just stay there and get better. But when a 70-year-old patient of mine gets sick and is isolated at home, then I'd like to test him in order to then be able to call every two days and ask how his breathing is. That way, he can be admitted to a hospital early enough and doesn't show up to an out-patient clinic with a clotted lung and have to immediately be transferred to an intensive care unit.
ZEIT ONLINE: Will we soon have tests that are faster than the current ones?
Drosten: Some are already commercially available, mostly those that detect antibodies. Their quality probably varies. And they only work after 10 days, since that's when patients have developed antibodies. In the first 10 days, these tests are blind, so to speak. We have to wait until antigen tests are developed, which can actually detect viral proteins. These tests will work like a pregnancy test – and they'll also provide results just as quickly. If the tests work well, they'll be able to completely replace the current ones. Then people won't have to wait in lines anymore. I hope this will happen by May.
ZEIT ONLINE: By then, millions of people could be infected. How well are German clinics prepared for that eventuality?
Drosten: No matter how you count or who you speak to: We have to bring down the number of cases now. Otherwise we won't be able to handle it. Otherwise we'll have exactly the same problems as Italy within a few weeks. We do have more beds, and maybe we're a little better trained. But even though intensive care in Germany is good, there's still not enough of it. Based on the current figures, we would need – even by conservative estimates – to double our current intensive-care capacity in order to even come close to ventilating everyone who needs it.
ZEIT ONLINE: Germany's federal and state governments have now adopted an emergency plan. Additional capacities for minor cases are to be created and the number of intensive care beds doubled.
Drosten: That's a good plan. And in order to do this, we need the time that we hope to buy with the current measures. Now is the phase in which ventilators are still being ordered and hospital wards cleared. All this (points to a nearby building) belongs to the hospital. Normally it's used for offices. Now it's being cleared out and beds are being set up inside – including ones with ventilators. Processes like these take a few weeks. That's what the weeks we're trying to buy ourselves now are for, and not primarily for developing a vaccine.
ZEIT ONLINE: Let's look at the virus itself. You have been researching coronaviruses for many years. What has surprised you most about SARS-CoV-2 so far?
Drosten: Clearly the fact that it replicates in the throat. With the SARS virus, which caused the outbreak in 2002-2003, we were never able to isolate it in the throat. SARS patients had far fewer viruses in their bodies and the pathogens were far less infectious. In addition, the new coronavirus contains an astonishing biological innovation: a protease cleavage site in the surface protein of the virus. In the case of bird flu, for example, whether this site is there or not makes the difference whether the pathogen makes poultry very sick or not.
ZEIT ONLINE: What's so special about this cleavage site?
Drosten: The surface protein must be cut so that the virus can mature and enter the next cell. And this cleavage site may enable the virus to be cut even when it's only just been released from the last infected cell. It's like a sheet of paper that's easier to tear off the notepad because it's perforated. And SARS-CoV-2 has this perforation.
ZEIT ONLINE: What does this mean for the disease?
Drosten: We don't know for sure yet. It could allow the virus to already be mature when it leaves the cell – ready to enter the next one. This could also be the reason why SARS-CoV-2 replicates so well in the throat and why it can be transmitted so easily. We now have to figure all that out.
ZEIT ONLINE: Just like the question as to the precise case fatality rate.
Drosten: Right now, there's actually another variable that's more important: the so-called infection fatality rate. This indicates the percentage of infected people who die – including those who have no or only a few symptoms and are therefore not recorded as cases. As such, it also serves as an estimate of how high the number of unreported cases is. How many people who contract the disease don't show any symptoms at all, or only have sore throats? Among the first infected people in Germany, whom we closely examined for a study, there were quite a few. At the moment, I often hear that 80 percent of cases have only mild symptoms. But my impression is: Maybe it's even a lot more. That would be important to know.
ZEIT ONLINE: Elderly and sick people are particularly at risk of contracting COVID-19. Yet over and over again, there are also reports of people in their early or mid-30s who have to be admitted to intensive care or who even die. Why is that?
Drosten: This is also the case with other respiratory diseases, that younger people sometimes fall seriously ill. But we often don't know a lot about people. In the media, you'll here: "A 35-year-old is in intensive care." But a 35-year-old can have massive underlying diseases. We know, for example, that a high body mass index is a major risk factor for COVID-19, as is coronary heart disease, i.e. a narrowing of the coronary vessels due to vascular calcification. Pneumonia puts a massive strain on the cardiovascular system. If that system is already damaged, the extra strain can sometimes overwhelm it. And there are many people between the ages of 35 and 50 who live with such risk factors. Another hypothesis is that someone may inhale a huge dose of the virus directly into their lungs. Then the virus immediately replicates deep within the respiratory tract without having previously triggered any immune response in the throat. Then people might get really sick right away and the body has no remedy for it yet. Like I said, it's a hypothesis.
ZEIT ONLINE: According to what we know so far, men are more likely to fall ill than women. Are there clues as to why that might be?
Drosten: We don't know for sure yet. It's possible that risk factors like the ones we just discussed are more common in men. Some studies also suggest that the binding site the virus uses to enter cells is especially common on the cells of Asians, and especially males. But honestly, I think this explanation fits into the picture well and that's why it was interpreted this way. Besides, the virus is also spreading outside China, so I don't think this argument is very likely. There just isn't any good data on this yet.
ZEIT ONLINE: You've often said that neither drugs nor vaccines will be available in time for this outbreak. Is there no hope at all?
Drosten: It is conceivable that the situation will become so bad that regulations will be suspended. One could imagine certain aspects of vaccine approval being ignored during this crisis and vaccines that haven't been tested well being used on people. These are far-fetched scenarios, and they're speculative. But if things get very bad – and I don't want to rule that out at the moment – something like this could be conceivable. A number of biotech companies have had vaccine candidates in the pipeline for quite some time.
ZEIT ONLINE: In the U.S. this week, a volunteer test subject received a possible vaccine manufactured by a private biotech company. It is based on mRNA, so small pieces of genetic material. Is this the right approach?
Drosten: I can't really say yet. I think it's a quick approach. I don't know if it's also the mass approach we need right now. At the moment, this would perhaps more likely be a surface protein of the virus that can be produced en masse and against which the immune system produces antibodies in large quantities. Some companies are pursuing this approach. That kind of vaccine would then be earmarked for risk groups. If things were to get really bad, one could imagine something like this happening.
ZEIT ONLINE: At what point would you say things are bad enough for such steps to be taken?
Drosten: I can't and don't want to imagine that at the moment.
ZEIT ONLINE: Do you consider any medications promising?
Drosten: I see the antiviral drug remdesivir as the best option. It was originally developed to treat Ebola. Studies are currently underway, but at the moment, the manufacturer only permits it to be used on people who are already seriously ill, and only then under a special protocol and only within a small timeframe. Ideally, it would be possible to give it to patients sooner, and for that, much greater quantities would have to be available. We now have to wait and see what the first results are.
ZEIT ONLINE: And other drugs?
Drosten: I don't see any real alternatives. Neither the malaria drug chloroquine nor the HIV drugs ritonavir/lopinavir. Both have been the subject of clinical studies, but the results haven't been convincing.
ZEIT ONLINE: Italy is apparently considering experimenting with treating patients with the plasma of people who have already recovered from the infection.
Drosten: It is a tempting idea. There still isn't any published data on the treatment, but there are a lot of young, healthy patients who would be perfect plasma donors. When they become infected, they produce the best antibodies around. If they are administered to patients at the right moment, then it is certainly a possibility. I can imagine that in maybe two months, the first small analyses of case studies – potentially also from Germany – will be available. But extremely rapid results, at least on a large scale, cannot be expected from all of these measures.
ZEIT ONLINE: What about from rising springtime temperatures?
Drosten: This effect isn't likely to be particularly pronounced. It won't be able to stop the outbreak, but it may help a bit. And combined with the isolation measures, I strongly expect that we will see an impact in a month.
ZEIT ONLINE: And then? What happens after that?
Drosten: We perhaps have to assume that from a societal perspective, we'll have to go through a year in a state of emergency. But we probably won't continue pursuing all measures precisely as we have now introduced them. We will be able to, we will have to, adjust them. Some things will be phased out. But during the initial phase between now and the week after Easter, we really have to take rigorous action and keep a close eye on the development of the number of cases.
ZEIT ONLINE: A year of a state of emergency? What will our lives look like during this period?
Drosten: Nobody knows. I can't imagine it yet either. More than anything, a solution for our schools must be found. That is the most important thing. At the universities, I think it's OK to lose a semester or two. But losing an entire schoolyear is simply too difficult because there is so much depending on it, not least for our economy. We'll have to find a solution. And, of course, also for those who are particularly at risk.
ZEIT ONLINE: What kinds of things do you have in mind?
Drosten: Certain arrangements could be made specifically for such risk groups, for example by rigorously testing the elderly and those at risk early on and giving them priority when it comes to hospital admissions. And those at higher risk will have to continue to work from home, for an extended period. It could be possible to find ways to isolate elderly people at home. There could be shuttle services for them, and groceries would have to be delivered to them. Volunteers could help, perhaps even the German military. And in day-to-day life, children would have to be kept away from those at risk as strictly as possible.
ZEIT ONLINE: And then the schools could be opened again?
Drosten: Perhaps measures could be imposed, like half the school can use only these hallways and the other half the other hallways. There would no longer be a long recess, and perhaps no short ones either. Common rooms would no longer be used and would be locked. With such measures, you can reduce effective group sizes in the schools. That would require some planning, but we have time between now and the week after Easter. The most important thing is that we need scientific data regarding the situation at schools.
ZEIT ONLINE: And what if grandparents want to see their grandchildren again?
Drosten: Perhaps it will be the case that grandchildren will first have to undergo a test when they want to visit grandma and grandpa to be sure that they don't infect them. Such details now need to be clarified. With the political decisions that have been made, social life has been put on hold. But hopefully adjustments can be made with the help of scientific findings and modelling that apply specifically to Germany.
ZEIT ONLINE: When will people be able to go back to work?
Drosten: In the medical world, consideration is already being given to the idea of testing people so they can go to work. Once antigen tests are available, that could be expanded to include other occupational groups. Plus, if we assume that during the current wave of infections, perhaps 10 to 15 million people will become infected in Germany by autumn, we will soon have a large number of people with antibodies. People who are immune. Then, there will be doctors and nurses who can work without masks, and in other occupational groups, there will also be people who say: "I've made it through." And their number will continually increase.
ZEIT ONLINE: For how long will those people be immune?
Drosten: Those who have become infected will likely be immune for the rest of the pandemic, I would think – for a couple of years. And even if you were to become infected again, then it would be experienced as a harmless cold. The second infection wouldn't be as bad. That, at least, would be my best guess at present.
ZEIT ONLINE: How can we find out who has already been infected?
Drosten: By performing large, cross-sectional studies in the population, once in summer and again in October. Ideally it could be done with the help of blood banks, where blood is already being taken and stored. The goal must be that of establishing a decent estimate for each age group as to how many people have made it through the infection and now have antibodies. By doing so, it will be possible to find out whether we have reached the 60 to 70 percent level, which is the share of the population that will likely ultimately be infected.
ZEIT ONLINE: And then the virus will be gone after a year and a half?
Drosten: No, it will likely follow the path of the other coronaviruses that merely give you a cold. We will have to live with them, but they aren't as dangerous to us anymore once with have withstood the current outbreak.
ZEIT ONLINE: That all sounds like an immense challenge. Are we up to it as a society?
Drosten: It will be a difficult time and there will be huge economic losses. But yes, of course we'll get through it. We have to.
Translators: Chris Cottrell and Charles Hawley
In another interview he said about footballmatches in stadiums (that includes packed stadiums for concerts as well):
“I don't believe at all that we'll be filling football stadiums again in the foreseeable future. That is superfluous. That will not happen until this time next year," explains virologist Christian Drosten in an interview with “stern”.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
SomeTorontoGirl
()
Date: March 22, 2020 13:22
Awesome article, TooTough, thank you kindly.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
georgie48
()
Date: March 22, 2020 13:32
Quote
bv
I do understand people are angry. Blame it on the leaders. Blame it on some others. But right now, I think it is time to listen to science and facts, the experts, and not to be angry or making false hope.
Forget about the number of tests or positive tests. Except for South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and China, few countries do test every person asking for a test. There is no capacity. Yesterday Norway had tested 50,000 people, out of our 5 million population. That is 1% of all being tested. Out of all tests, 19 out of 20 tests are negative, but the 20th i.e. 5% are positive, and sure of great importance to contain that person and everyone in near contact. So the number of positive tests in my country do only reflect those who are tested, with sympthoms, out of may not tested.
I followed a press conference at the White House yesterday. They said they had tested a total of 200,000 people so far, out of the U.S. population of 330 million people. That is 0.06% of the population.
USA are in desperate need of a complete shutdown. Not state by state over time, but completely and right now. It will hurt the economy, for sure, but the alternative might be worst case 2.2 million deaths from the coronavirus, as told by an American specialist based at the University of Oxford UK live on CNN today. Those are horror numbers, worst case, for sure, but remember, we do not have any protection at all, nobody is immune, and if the virus is out of control, it will hit the entire population.
One should also mention Hong Kong! Ever since SARS (2003) we have passed through Hong Kong around 20 times. And every time on the airport we saw heat cameras and airport staff dealing with lots of travellers wearing masks! That country (or part of China, whatever) was very well prepared to start with and the results can be seen in the daily statistics.
So maybe (or better: for sure) the lesson to take from this corona virus pandemic is ... do like the Hong Kong professionals have done! So if (actually not "if" but "when") any new corona offspring in the future surfaces, the world would be much better prepared.
Meanwhile, like many on this thread already have mentioned: stay focussed and ... listen to the experts!
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
Doxa
()
Date: March 22, 2020 13:44
Just thinking about the human consequences of social distanding and lockdown... just from the existentialist point of view.
In a way I feel like being in a privileged position to handle it now. Being at home with just my wife and our kid of 14 years old. There had no been much such a 'quality time' being just three of us - and our cat - together. We have gone through some conversations we haven't done for ages or ever. Both my wife and I can work at home, and the kid is able to his school also online, so no problem in that sense either. I can listen to the Stones more than for ages, with no sense of guilt of wasting my time haha... and besides that, I have now time to read all the books I have long intented to. In a way, as selfish it might sound like, I can say I am doing alright.
I guess for many us here in IORR it is pretty similar, since most of us are not that young anymore, right?
Which makes me think of younger people, students, people at their early twenties and so... How hard is for them to stand still, isolated, with no social life that is so natural for the people of their age. Especially when there is no partner, girl/boy friends, kids, etc. I'm thinking if I'd been in my twenties, or thirties actually, how much would I have suffered from a situation like this. Gladly, there there are advantages of modern technology - social media - which 'connects people' like the old Nokia ad once said. Back in the old days the phone bills would have been tremendous...
And then there are the elder people, like my parents. How much they suffer from not seeing their grandchildren, or anybody. Gladly my both parents are still alive, and they can talk to each other, but what about the people who have lost already their other half? As is typical here in Northern Europe the elder people live on their own, not with their families as is the standard in Southern Europe. There is such a huge amount of loneliness in the air, even without the corona virus. In a way I understand - but don't accept the conduct - the recent news here in Finland about 'rebellious seniors' who simply refuse to follow the social distancing rule... "If I die, I'll die, but I won't isolate myself and stop living - that would mean a certain death'", like one old second world war veteran argued.
Which makes me think about the cultural differences... People in, say, Italy or Spain in general, never mind the age, are more social by nature than we asocial loners here in North. For us Finns social distancing is not that bad by principle. No matter how much we are 'Europeanized' and 'civilized' lately, especially the younger generation, it is still in our blood, so to say....
Just thinking aloud. Take care, everybody. And wash your hands.
- Doxa
Edited 6 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-22 14:13 by Doxa.
In a way I feel like being in a privileged position to handle it now. Being at home with just my wife and our kid of 14 years old. There had no been much such a 'quality time' being just three of us - and our cat - together. We have gone through some conversations we haven't done for ages or ever. Both my wife and I can work at home, and the kid is able to his school also online, so no problem in that sense either. I can listen to the Stones more than for ages, with no sense of guilt of wasting my time haha... and besides that, I have now time to read all the books I have long intented to. In a way, as selfish it might sound like, I can say I am doing alright.
I guess for many us here in IORR it is pretty similar, since most of us are not that young anymore, right?
Which makes me think of younger people, students, people at their early twenties and so... How hard is for them to stand still, isolated, with no social life that is so natural for the people of their age. Especially when there is no partner, girl/boy friends, kids, etc. I'm thinking if I'd been in my twenties, or thirties actually, how much would I have suffered from a situation like this. Gladly, there there are advantages of modern technology - social media - which 'connects people' like the old Nokia ad once said. Back in the old days the phone bills would have been tremendous...
And then there are the elder people, like my parents. How much they suffer from not seeing their grandchildren, or anybody. Gladly my both parents are still alive, and they can talk to each other, but what about the people who have lost already their other half? As is typical here in Northern Europe the elder people live on their own, not with their families as is the standard in Southern Europe. There is such a huge amount of loneliness in the air, even without the corona virus. In a way I understand - but don't accept the conduct - the recent news here in Finland about 'rebellious seniors' who simply refuse to follow the social distancing rule... "If I die, I'll die, but I won't isolate myself and stop living - that would mean a certain death'", like one old second world war veteran argued.
Which makes me think about the cultural differences... People in, say, Italy or Spain in general, never mind the age, are more social by nature than we asocial loners here in North. For us Finns social distancing is not that bad by principle. No matter how much we are 'Europeanized' and 'civilized' lately, especially the younger generation, it is still in our blood, so to say....
Just thinking aloud. Take care, everybody. And wash your hands.
- Doxa
Edited 6 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-22 14:13 by Doxa.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
Nate
()
Date: March 22, 2020 14:27
Quote
windmelodyQuote
DandelionPowdermanQuote
windmelody
This is a very sad and serious situation. My best wishes to everyone one this site. Yet I would like to write one thing: If I am informed correctly, anybody who dies in Italy these days and is tested positive on corona, is declared "corona dead". It is not sure, that this is a completely reliable way to deal with this catastrophe.
What do you suggest?
Some of those who died were suffering from several diseases, it is not sure that they died from corona only. The situation is terrible anyway.
There are studies being done right now that strongly suggest people with high blood pressure is the group most at risk.
Apparently 75% of people in Italy who have died of Coronavirus had high blood pressure.
Nate
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
bv
()
Date: March 22, 2020 14:42
Quote
TooToughQuote
bv
First we have to fight the virus. It will take may be half a year. May be a year or more. [...] I can not see any tour this year, and there will be no economy private or enterprise wise willing to pay for a tour next year. Sorry folks, it is time to pull the heads out of the ground and face the reality.
German´s top virologist, Professor Christian Drosten, about everything
you need to know [in English]:
[www.zeit.de]
ZEIT ONLINE: Life as we know it is changing at the moment. Mr. Drosten, are you worried?
Christian Drosten: Like many other people, I, too, am in denial about the current situation to a certain extent. I hope for my family and for myself that it won't affect us. But it very well could. And then there are others who are ignoring our new reality completely.
...
This is a very important interview. I hope everyone take their time to read it through. Also our leaders. What we need now is expert facts like this, and not propaganda. Thanks for posting it!
Bjornulf
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
2000 LYFH
()
Date: March 22, 2020 15:21
Quote
bv
Italian report today about how the coronavirus is reacting on warm weather:
Coronavirus, il Covid-19 non tiene conto delle temperature esterne by la Repubblica
English : Coronavirus, Covid-19 does not account for outside temperatures
Climate study by several Italian universities: "No relationship between the development of contagion and degrees Celsius in the environment, it is unlikely that the virus will be swept by the arrival of the heat". The tests carried out in Wuhan China, and in Lombardy and Veneto Italy.
.....
I believe what they (not your posted article) are saying as far as warm weather is, if someone sneezes/coughs, the humidity in the air may cause the virus to not carry so far. So rather then spraying 6 feet (there's that 6 foot number), it may only be 2 feet instead. Of course, it can still land on any surface regardless of the temp/humidity, so all else does not change. It's just the direct spray hitting you that may be cut down.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
bv
()
Date: March 22, 2020 15:40
About spring/summer influence on the virus, please see the interview posted above.
German´s top virologist, Professor Christian Drosten:
ZEIT ONLINE: What about from rising springtime temperatures?
Drosten: This effect isn't likely to be particularly pronounced. It won't be able to stop the outbreak, but it may help a bit. And combined with the isolation measures, I strongly expect that we will see an impact in a month.
Bjornulf
German´s top virologist, Professor Christian Drosten:
ZEIT ONLINE: What about from rising springtime temperatures?
Drosten: This effect isn't likely to be particularly pronounced. It won't be able to stop the outbreak, but it may help a bit. And combined with the isolation measures, I strongly expect that we will see an impact in a month.
Bjornulf
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
MisterDDDD
()
Date: March 22, 2020 15:53
How the Virus Got Out
The most extensive travel restrictions to stop an outbreak in human history haven’t been enough.
We analyzed the movements of hundreds of millions of people to show why.
[www.nytimes.com]
Excellent visual narrative on the spread of the virus.
The most extensive travel restrictions to stop an outbreak in human history haven’t been enough.
We analyzed the movements of hundreds of millions of people to show why.
[www.nytimes.com]
Excellent visual narrative on the spread of the virus.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
Stone601
()
Date: March 22, 2020 17:04
Hi everyone, I live in the north of Italy and I can assure you that the situation in certain areas of the north is truly tragic.
I am not a doctor, not an infectologist so I cannot provide an analysis of the situation or trend or whatever.
For me only the images that I see on the news speak.
Infected people who die die alone because relatives cannot get close. The coffins are brought to cremation in other cities by military trucks because the crematory ovens can't keep up with everyone. It is difficult for me to express what I feel these days, fear, concern, anxiety for me. for my relatives and friends and for all those people who, even if I don't know, are fighting for life.
Take care of yourself but above all STAY AT HOME is the only way to stop the spread.
[www.youtube.com]
I am not a doctor, not an infectologist so I cannot provide an analysis of the situation or trend or whatever.
For me only the images that I see on the news speak.
Infected people who die die alone because relatives cannot get close. The coffins are brought to cremation in other cities by military trucks because the crematory ovens can't keep up with everyone. It is difficult for me to express what I feel these days, fear, concern, anxiety for me. for my relatives and friends and for all those people who, even if I don't know, are fighting for life.
Take care of yourself but above all STAY AT HOME is the only way to stop the spread.
[www.youtube.com]
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
shattered
()
Date: March 22, 2020 17:23
Quote
Stone601
Hi everyone, I live in the north of Italy and I can assure you that the situation in certain areas of the north is truly tragic.
I am not a doctor, not an infectologist so I cannot provide an analysis of the situation or trend or whatever.
For me only the images that I see on the news speak.
Infected people who die die alone because relatives cannot get close. The coffins are brought to cremation in other cities by military trucks because the crematory ovens can't keep up with everyone. It is difficult for me to express what I feel these days, fear, concern, anxiety for me. for my relatives and friends and for all those people who, even if I don't know, are fighting for life.
Take care of yourself but above all STAY AT HOME is the only way to stop the spread.
[www.youtube.com]
My thoughts are with you Stone since I have friends in Orvieto. Emailed them last night and nothing back. They usually reply pretty quick. Was going to go to hospital to visit the patients today but you gave me a reality check.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
bv
()
Date: March 22, 2020 18:02
Please stop quoting when the number of quotes is exceeding a lot say 4-5. It simply makes no sense, and I will delete such inflated quoting posts, as they are more like a fight, than actually a regular post.
Feel free to write an individually post if you have something on your mind.
Bjornulf
Feel free to write an individually post if you have something on your mind.
Bjornulf
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
FlyoverStones
()
Date: March 22, 2020 18:48
the use of over estimated numbers - 2.2 million projected deaths, for example.
needs to stop. this is creating fear and panic.
there is also no way to lock down the entire US. Too large, too many authorities involved, too many people. We are not like a small Scandinavian country.
My midwestern state is larger than Norway and Denmark. We are being told to stay home. We are now 5 days into a 15 day proposed stay at home suggestion. Not an order yet with no school. The US economy will crash if we don't go back to work next month.
We do not have the protection and safety of the federal government. like so many smaller European countries.
needs to stop. this is creating fear and panic.
there is also no way to lock down the entire US. Too large, too many authorities involved, too many people. We are not like a small Scandinavian country.
My midwestern state is larger than Norway and Denmark. We are being told to stay home. We are now 5 days into a 15 day proposed stay at home suggestion. Not an order yet with no school. The US economy will crash if we don't go back to work next month.
We do not have the protection and safety of the federal government. like so many smaller European countries.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
treaclefingers
()
Date: March 22, 2020 18:51
Quote
Doxa
Just thinking about the human consequences of social distanding and lockdown... just from the existentialist point of view.
In a way I feel like being in a privileged position to handle it now. Being at home with just my wife and our kid of 14 years old. There had no been much such a 'quality time' being just three of us - and our cat - together. We have gone through some conversations we haven't done for ages or ever. Both my wife and I can work at home, and the kid is able to his school also online, so no problem in that sense either. I can listen to the Stones more than for ages, with no sense of guilt of wasting my time haha... and besides that, I have now time to read all the books I have long intented to. In a way, as selfish it might sound like, I can say I am doing alright.
I guess for many us here in IORR it is pretty similar, since most of us are not that young anymore, right?
Which makes me think of younger people, students, people at their early twenties and so... How hard is for them to stand still, isolated, with no social life that is so natural for the people of their age. Especially when there is no partner, girl/boy friends, kids, etc. I'm thinking if I'd been in my twenties, or thirties actually, how much would I have suffered from a situation like this. Gladly, there there are advantages of modern technology - social media - which 'connects people' like the old Nokia ad once said. Back in the old days the phone bills would have been tremendous...
And then there are the elder people, like my parents. How much they suffer from not seeing their grandchildren, or anybody. Gladly my both parents are still alive, and they can talk to each other, but what about the people who have lost already their other half? As is typical here in Northern Europe the elder people live on their own, not with their families as is the standard in Southern Europe. There is such a huge amount of loneliness in the air, even without the corona virus. In a way I understand - but don't accept the conduct - the recent news here in Finland about 'rebellious seniors' who simply refuse to follow the social distancing rule... "If I die, I'll die, but I won't isolate myself and stop living - that would mean a certain death'", like one old second world war veteran argued.
Which makes me think about the cultural differences... People in, say, Italy or Spain in general, never mind the age, are more social by nature than we asocial loners here in North. For us Finns social distancing is not that bad by principle. No matter how much we are 'Europeanized' and 'civilized' lately, especially the younger generation, it is still in our blood, so to say....
Just thinking aloud. Take care, everybody. And wash your hands.
- Doxa
Funny some of those observations Doxa. Privileged as well to be working mostly from home. Also, so much more quality time with the family, playing basketball, frisbee in the back yard, or board games or even just netflixing.
I prepared a couple of months ago as this was apparent to get out of hand, so now rarely need to go out.
We have some elderly neighbours with health conditions nearby so I reached out to them and told them to let me know whenever they may need something from the store and i would go out on their behalf so they needn't risk themselves.
Anyway, we'll get through this, but sadly not everyone. It makes me angry how slow governments have been to move, and how people are still not modelling behaviors that are needed to stem the exponential growth. That is taking something that would probably have been manageable, into something that is now out of control.
Stay safe everyone.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
Topi
()
Date: March 22, 2020 18:58
In Finland, there will probably be some sort of regional lockdowns/curfews. The Lapland (northernmost part of Finland) ski resorts announced they would close a week from now, so what do the people in Finland do? Travel up there in masses to ski!
Idiots.
After the ski resort owners learned that they decided to immediately terminate their season.
I'm hearing that in some places in Sweden, the outdoor terrace season at restaurants is opening earlier and that, yes, ski resorts are still open - and planning their Easter activities.
Unbelievable.
So far, Finland has about 560+ confirmed cases and one death.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-22 18:59 by Topi.
Idiots.
After the ski resort owners learned that they decided to immediately terminate their season.
I'm hearing that in some places in Sweden, the outdoor terrace season at restaurants is opening earlier and that, yes, ski resorts are still open - and planning their Easter activities.
Unbelievable.
So far, Finland has about 560+ confirmed cases and one death.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-22 18:59 by Topi.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
gotdablouse
()
Date: March 22, 2020 19:17
A slight "improvement" in Italy for March 22nd
New cases : +5,560
New deaths : +651
vs
March 21st
New cases : +6,557
New deaths : +793
I hope they've seen the worst of it...
--------------
IORR Links : Essential Studio Outtakes CDs : Audio - History of Rarest Outtakes : Audio
New cases : +5,560
New deaths : +651
vs
March 21st
New cases : +6,557
New deaths : +793
I hope they've seen the worst of it...
--------------
IORR Links : Essential Studio Outtakes CDs : Audio - History of Rarest Outtakes : Audio
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
bv
()
Date: March 22, 2020 19:24
Italy numbers are looking bad, but if we do the maths, they are actually improving.
Lombardia numbers are down, and the total today in Italy is down, and the percentage number has been going down to +13%, from higher numbers the past seven days.
I am an optimist. The number yesterday was scary, today is better, and I hope, really hope, the trend tomorrow will follow the trend of today.
My hopes are with Italy!
Date / Total deaths / % up / deaths daily
Sun 22-mar = 5476 => +13% (+651)
Sat 21-mar = 4825 => +20% (+793)
Fri 20-mar = 4032 => +18% (+627)
Thu 19-mar = 3405 => +14% (+427)
Wed 18-mar = 2978 => +19% (+475)
Tue 17-mar = 2503 => +16% (+345)
Mon 16-mar = 2158 => +19% (+349)
Bjornulf
Lombardia numbers are down, and the total today in Italy is down, and the percentage number has been going down to +13%, from higher numbers the past seven days.
I am an optimist. The number yesterday was scary, today is better, and I hope, really hope, the trend tomorrow will follow the trend of today.
My hopes are with Italy!
Date / Total deaths / % up / deaths daily
Sun 22-mar = 5476 => +13% (+651)
Sat 21-mar = 4825 => +20% (+793)
Fri 20-mar = 4032 => +18% (+627)
Thu 19-mar = 3405 => +14% (+427)
Wed 18-mar = 2978 => +19% (+475)
Tue 17-mar = 2503 => +16% (+345)
Mon 16-mar = 2158 => +19% (+349)
Bjornulf
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
yorkshirestone
()
Date: March 22, 2020 19:29
Interesting read from the German virologist. Suspected warm temperatures were a bit of a red herring given relatives in Australia tell me it remains an unseasonably hot summer and cases still spreading there
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
thomas guitar
()
Date: March 22, 2020 19:30
Quote
bvQuote
TooToughQuote
bv
First we have to fight the virus. It will take may be half a year. May be a year or more. [...] I can not see any tour this year, and there will be no economy private or enterprise wise willing to pay for a tour next year. Sorry folks, it is time to pull the heads out of the ground and face the reality.
German´s top virologist, Professor Christian Drosten, about everything
you need to know [in English]:
[www.zeit.de]
ZEIT ONLINE: Life as we know it is changing at the moment. Mr. Drosten, are you worried?
Christian Drosten: Like many other people, I, too, am in denial about the current situation to a certain extent. I hope for my family and for myself that it won't affect us. But it very well could. And then there are others who are ignoring our new reality completely.
...
This is a very important interview. I hope everyone take their time to read it through. Also our leaders. What we need now is expert facts like this, and not propaganda. Thanks for posting it!
Thanks Thomas for posting. Christina Drosten is one of the few I trust with his statements. And also that we will see football games in public in stadiums until next year. I think relalistic. Stone's concerts this year are unrealistic. Drosten had already warned of this extent on German television weeks ago. Despite his warning, the carnival which is very popular in Germany was held. With the result that a hotspot was created at a carnival event, the first larger one in Germany and meanwhile some of the circle have died.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-22 19:32 by thomas guitar.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
daspyknows
()
Date: March 22, 2020 19:45
Quote
Nate
Intelligence agencies were warning those in power in Washington as early as January that it was likely a pandemic would happen and yet the people in power did very little apart from selling off stocks as they knew what was coming.
Nate
This. There is an interesting video I saw that I won't post because it is political but it shows the response from Feb and early March.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-22 19:54 by daspyknows.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
treaclefingers
()
Date: March 22, 2020 20:16
Quote
bv
Italy numbers are looking bad, but if we do the maths, they are actually improving.
Lombardia numbers are down, and the total today in Italy is down, and the percentage number has been going down to +13%, from higher numbers the past seven days.
I am an optimist. The number yesterday was scary, today is better, and I hope, really hope, the trend tomorrow will follow the trend of today.
My hopes are with Italy!
Date / Total deaths / % up / deaths daily
Sun 22-mar = 5476 => +13% (+651)
Sat 21-mar = 4825 => +20% (+793)
Fri 20-mar = 4032 => +18% (+627)
Thu 19-mar = 3405 => +14% (+427)
Wed 18-mar = 2978 => +19% (+475)
Tue 17-mar = 2503 => +16% (+345)
Mon 16-mar = 2158 => +19% (+349)
I think we may have seen a break as well...hopefully in the coming days it will continue a trend.
I think the US on the other hand is several days/weeks from a peak...8149 new cases, so far, today. [EDIT, change downward made to the total, thankfully]
Blows away everything to this point, but just a reality insofar as testing is finally being done. Actual number of infections are much higher.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-22 21:48 by treaclefingers.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
gotdablouse
()
Date: March 22, 2020 20:54
Numbers are also "improving" in France...
New cases : +1559
New deaths : +112
vs
March 21st
New cases : +1847
New deaths : +112
Hopefully the new cases trend continues like this. It can be hoped the full confinement (vs North than South in Italy) will prevent the similar skyrocketing.
There have been several reports on how efficient the choloroquine+Zithromax treatment has been, including "self-medication" by a GP who was in a super bad shape and figured he had nothing to lose.
For some reason the authorities are being ULTRA cautious...in spite of the fact that this treatment has been used for years and years on thousands (millions ? I took Nivaquine twice a day when I did my service in the navy and we were in Africa) of patients with no dire side effects. I realize things need to be "checked" but "red tape" does not look like a good option at this point !
--------------
IORR Links : Essential Studio Outtakes CDs : Audio - History of Rarest Outtakes : Audio
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-22 20:55 by gotdablouse.
New cases : +1559
New deaths : +112
vs
March 21st
New cases : +1847
New deaths : +112
Hopefully the new cases trend continues like this. It can be hoped the full confinement (vs North than South in Italy) will prevent the similar skyrocketing.
There have been several reports on how efficient the choloroquine+Zithromax treatment has been, including "self-medication" by a GP who was in a super bad shape and figured he had nothing to lose.
For some reason the authorities are being ULTRA cautious...in spite of the fact that this treatment has been used for years and years on thousands (millions ? I took Nivaquine twice a day when I did my service in the navy and we were in Africa) of patients with no dire side effects. I realize things need to be "checked" but "red tape" does not look like a good option at this point !
--------------
IORR Links : Essential Studio Outtakes CDs : Audio - History of Rarest Outtakes : Audio
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-22 20:55 by gotdablouse.
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 status around the world
Posted by:
jlowe
()
Date: March 22, 2020 23:37
Though it's a worry that South Korea's figures have flat lined for the last couple of weeks.
98 new cases in the last 24 hours.
Hong Kong also barely showing any improvement.
98 new cases in the last 24 hours.
Hong Kong also barely showing any improvement.
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