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bv
It takes approx four - 4 - weeks from lockdown until the number of deaths change, if the lockdown is late, like in Italy.

First lockdown. If the lockdown is 100% like in China, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, then all new tested cases will go to zero within 14 days, or some more time if the area is as large as they were in China, and also for North Italy, a large area.

Then all people who got the virus up to the point of the lockdown, will be sick and in intensive care during the next few weeks.

This is why it does not make sense to look into day-by-day numbers, unless you know all data, all dates, and you are skilled in statistics.

The weekly statistics will be the most accurate way of monitoring how a lockdown is working. I will update my own weekly statistics every Monday, like I did earlier this week.

There is no quick fix for this virus. People who say so are presenting lies, or they do not understand. We will not see any good numbers from Italy, France, Spain, UK, USA until April. The curve will flatten some four weeks after the complete lockdown is in place, if everyone do respect the lockdown.

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liddas

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keefriff99

I just don't understand what's going on in Italy...haven't they been locked down for a couple of weeks now? How could it still be spreading like this?

Because what you are reading is an aggregate figure.

The epidemy first started in the north of Italy and is now spreading to the rest of the peninsula.

Things will get worse, because thousands of southern Italians who worked / studied in the north, returned to their hometowns in the south when the lockdown decree was announced.

C

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bv
The coronavirus numbers from Italy seems to be abbounced at 6pm every day. Yesterday I was an optimist, but as some commented, we do of course need a lot more sample points in order to see a trend going down.

The number of deaths from Italy today is +627, and the total is 4,032 deaths from the virus. The numbers are more and more scary the larger they are, because after all there are human beings and so many tragedies and family losses behind every single death.

Statistically the day-to-day growth is +18%. This number is the one that should go down, and it has been as high as 24% and 26% during the past seven days, see below, but we really really hope to see the curve flattening, and then going down.

Italy coronavirus deaths

Fri 20-mar = 4032 => +18% (+627)
Thu 19-mar = 3405 => +14% (+427)
Wed 18-mar = 2978 => +19% (+475)
Tue 17-mar = 2503 => +16% (+345)
Mon 16-mar = 2158 => +19% (+349)
Sun 15-mar = 1809 => +26% (+368)
Sat 14-mar = 1441 => +14% (+175)
Fri 13-mar = 1266 => +24% (+250)
Thu 12-mar = 1016

Corona virus statistics by Worldometers.com - WORLD / COUNTRIES / ITALY

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bv
UK are closing the pubs, restaurants etc. I see the same shopping queues we had eight days ago in Norway, when we had our shutdown, so it is good to see that UK finally take action.

Then I see this in the BBC news, so I just wonder if it is really a lockdown:

All the UK's nightclubs, theatres, cinemas, gyms and leisure centres have also been told to close "as soon as they reasonably can".

UK pubs and restaurants told to shut in virus fight (BBC News)

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TKinOH
I was called last night at 2200 by our company nurse...

I was in close proximity to a co-worker on Monday, 3-16, who is presumptive positive...

I am off work, with full pay, until 4-3. Asked to self-monitor for symptoms and take my temperature twice daily.

This now hits home, folks!

Everyone take care of yourselves and each other!

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liddas

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bv
Singapore is the proof of the pudding.

If you take immediate action, test, test, test, investigate, contain every case, and do take the coronavirus completely seriously from day one, it will go away.

Total cases coronavirus positives = 345
Total deaths from coronavirus = 0
Population of Singapore = 5.6 million

Forbes:

Coronavirus Containment—What We Can Learn From Relative Calm In Singapore And Hong Kong

Widespread testing also took fold in Singapore which was quick to ensure that the city knew who was infected and forced isolation to prevent the virus spread.

Although there are still current restrictions in Hong Kong and Singapore, neither place has had to implement a forced lockdown, and life has largely continued in a sensibly cautious way.

Recovery numbers in Hong Kong and Singapore are on par or even outstripping new daily cases of COVID-19 now. Although it is too early to claim the spread of the virus has been defeated here, it has certainly been contained.

Many in Europe and the U.S. can look to the positivity in Hong Kong and Singapore. The difference, however, was the quick, early and sensible measures taken in these Asian cities right at the start, to ensure that wider lockdowns were not imposed.

Currently, for everyone around the world, the more positive outlook in Hong Kong and Singapore represent paramount hope moving forward.

We will soon see what happens here in Italy.

Two days and it will be 2 full weeks of lockdown.

Despite what you read on the newspapers / see on TV, people have complied with the restrictions: streets in Milan ARE empty

Of course, even the we adopted the most strict measures and we were the most disciplined people of the world, a total isolation is impossible: large families who live in small apartments is huge buildings are the norm here.

C

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jumpontopofmebaby

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TKinOH
I was called last night at 2200 by our company nurse...

I was in close proximity to a co-worker on Monday, 3-16, who is presumptive positive...

I am off work, with full pay, until 4-3. Asked to self-monitor for symptoms and take my temperature twice daily.

This now hits home, folks!

Everyone take care of yourselves and each other!

Where do you live

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treaclefingers

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virgil
The experts have said people can have the virus and show no symptoms. So does this mean some of these people could test negative and still actually have the virus?

No, if you have the virus you generally test positive. Mayor of Miami is on CNN right now saying he tested positive...he showed no symptoms but had himself tested because he was in proximity with someone that was.

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TKinOH

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jumpontopofmebaby

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TKinOH
I was called last night at 2200 by our company nurse...

I was in close proximity to a co-worker on Monday, 3-16, who is presumptive positive...

I am off work, with full pay, until 4-3. Asked to self-monitor for symptoms and take my temperature twice daily.

This now hits home, folks!

Everyone take care of yourselves and each other!

Ok...good luck.

I live in Southwest MO but work in a small town in SE Kansas ...very small town...they had their first case here yesterday. Preacher at a small church so hitting home and getting real here also.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020-03-20 23:02 by jumpontopofmebaby.

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bv
UK are closing the pubs, restaurants etc. I see the same shopping queues we had eight days ago in Norway, when we had our shutdown, so it is good to see that UK finally take action.

Then I see this in the BBC news, so I just wonder if it is really a lockdown:

All the UK's nightclubs, theatres, cinemas, gyms and leisure centres have also been told to close "as soon as they reasonably can".

UK pubs and restaurants told to shut in virus fight (BBC News)

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bv
I read scary scary news about Italy today. They don't really have a lockdown, according to the Chinese Red Cross vice president.

The Chinese Red Cross vice president, Sun Shuopeng, urged tougher measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

"The situation "is similar to what we experienced two months ago in Wuhan, China, the epicenter of Covid-19," he said Thursday at a news conference in Milan, Italy.

"In the city of Wuhan after one month since the adoption of the lockdown policy, we see a decreasing trend from the peak of the disease," Sun Shuopeng said. "Here in Milan, the hardest-hit area by Covid-19, there isn't a very strict lockdown: public transportation is still working and people are still moving around, you're still having dinners and parties in the hotels and you're not wearing masks."

"I don't know what everyone is thinking."

He advised Italians to stop all "economic activities and cut the mobility of people," calling on everyone to just stay at home. "We need every citizen to be involved in the fight of Covid-19 and follow this policy."

Italy calls in military to enforce coronavirus lockdown as 627 people die in 24 hours - 'I don't know what everyone is thinking' (CNN)

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liddas

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bv
I read scary scary news about Italy today. They don't really have a lockdown, according to the Chinese Red Cross vice president.

The Chinese Red Cross vice president, Sun Shuopeng, urged tougher measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

"The situation "is similar to what we experienced two months ago in Wuhan, China, the epicenter of Covid-19," he said Thursday at a news conference in Milan, Italy.

"In the city of Wuhan after one month since the adoption of the lockdown policy, we see a decreasing trend from the peak of the disease," Sun Shuopeng said. "Here in Milan, the hardest-hit area by Covid-19, there isn't a very strict lockdown: public transportation is still working and people are still moving around, you're still having dinners and parties in the hotels and you're not wearing masks."

"I don't know what everyone is thinking."

He advised Italians to stop all "economic activities and cut the mobility of people," calling on everyone to just stay at home. "We need every citizen to be involved in the fight of Covid-19 and follow this policy."

Italy calls in military to enforce coronavirus lockdown as 627 people die in 24 hours - 'I don't know what everyone is thinking' (CNN)

Italy is a completely different situation.

We simply cannot stop all economic activities. As large as the red area was in China, there still was a huge part of the country that could supply what was needed.

Almost all the industries in Italy are located in the North. Most of them are already closed. Those which are operational, have to continue being so. There is no back up.

And the fact that we have soldiers helping enforcing the lockdown is quite normal, since they are already present in the streets of all major Italian towns to protect sensible sites from possible terrorist attacks.

Once again, I am convinced that Italy is doing all that can possibly be done in a democratic country to implement the lock down.

C

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liddas

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bv
I read scary scary news about Italy today. They don't really have a lockdown, according to the Chinese Red Cross vice president.

The Chinese Red Cross vice president, Sun Shuopeng, urged tougher measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

"The situation "is similar to what we experienced two months ago in Wuhan, China, the epicenter of Covid-19," he said Thursday at a news conference in Milan, Italy.

"In the city of Wuhan after one month since the adoption of the lockdown policy, we see a decreasing trend from the peak of the disease," Sun Shuopeng said. "Here in Milan, the hardest-hit area by Covid-19, there isn't a very strict lockdown: public transportation is still working and people are still moving around, you're still having dinners and parties in the hotels and you're not wearing masks."

"I don't know what everyone is thinking."

He advised Italians to stop all "economic activities and cut the mobility of people," calling on everyone to just stay at home. "We need every citizen to be involved in the fight of Covid-19 and follow this policy."

Italy calls in military to enforce coronavirus lockdown as 627 people die in 24 hours - 'I don't know what everyone is thinking' (CNN)

Italy is a completely different situation.

We simply cannot stop all economic activities. As large as the red area was in China, there still was a huge part of the country that could supply what was needed.

Almost all the industries in Italy are located in the North. Most of them are already closed. Those which are operational, have to continue being so. There is no back up.

And the fact that we have soldiers helping enforcing the lockdown is quite normal, since they are already present in the streets of all major Italian towns to protect sensible sites from possible terrorist attacks.

Once again, I am convinced that Italy is doing all that can possibly be done in a democratic country to implement the lock down.

C

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virgil

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treaclefingers

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virgil
The experts have said people can have the virus and show no symptoms. So does this mean some of these people could test negative and still actually have the virus?

No, if you have the virus you generally test positive. Mayor of Miami is on CNN right now saying he tested positive...he showed no symptoms but had himself tested because he was in proximity with someone that was.

NewsHub New Zealand, has a story that you can actually have the Virus and test negative with a list of reasons why this could happen.

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bv
been told to close "as soon as they reasonably can".

(BBC News)

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ryanpow

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bv
been told to close "as soon as they reasonably can".

(BBC News)

lol, that is so British.

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keefriff99

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ryanpow

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bv
been told to close "as soon as they reasonably can".

(BBC News)

lol, that is so British.

Cheerio and all that rot.