Update Tue Aug 27 2pm EST (Miami time):

Forecasters became more sure Tuesday that Tropical Storm Dorian is headed toward Florida or the lower Southeast coast. South Carolina remains on the northern edge of potential tracks for the storm. But federal meteorologists still aren’t certain how weak or strong Dorian might be at U.S. landfall, which is expected Sunday. The forecast calls for it to be a tropical storm.

Update Wed Aug 28 2pm EST (Miami time):

Dorian is now a hurricane and is forecast to strike Florida as a major Category 3 storm, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest update, issued at 2 p.m. Wednesday. Dorian’s date with Florida remains shrouded in uncertainty so things can, and will, change before Sunday or Monday’s anticipated landfall on Florida’s east coast.

Graphs and forecasts:

US NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER

Bjornulf



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 2019-08-28 21:51 by bv.

Any inkling of a change in date BV?

Stay safe Bjornulf, and all other fans planning to travel in the area.
I guess the best case scenario if the show goes as planned would be LOTS of rain with not much wind.
Anything beyond that (extremely high winds, torrential downpour, etc.) I would think they can push it a day or two back.

_____________________________________________________________
Rip this joint, gonna save your soul, round and round and round we go......



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2019-08-27 19:02 by Hairball.

We will know a lot more about this tropical storm by the next 1-2 days.

It may go weeaker or stronger, and it may go slower and do landfall on Sunday.

It may est or east of Miami.

Worst case the Stones show in Miami Saturday Aug 31 is in danger, best case it will be quite wet; it will be wet anyway.

Bjornulf

Quote
bv
Forecasters became more sure Tuesday that Tropical Storm Dorian is headed toward Florida or the lower Southeast coast.

South Carolina remains on the northern edge of potential tracks for the storm.

But federal meteorologists still aren’t certain how weak or strong Dorian might be at U.S. landfall, which is expected Sunday. The forecast calls for it to be a tropical storm.

“As a smaller tropical storm, Dorian could both strengthen and weaken more quickly than usual,” said meteorologist Bob Henson, with the forecasting company Weather Underground.

Predictions from the two leading computer models — which had varied widely on Monday — came into close agreement Tuesday that the storm would weaken coming across the Caribbean islands then strengthen before landfall in Florida.

Dorian winds weaken; tropical storm threat increases to FL, SE coast

BV, I live 15 minutes due east of the stadium. When any type of tropical storm or hurricane comes our way it affects all of South Florida, any idea when the stones will make an announcement? Tuesday would be a wise choice to make sure that everyone is in the clear



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2019-08-27 19:07 by DrFixembones.

Continually Updated NWS radar loop :


Click for >>> Full size USA loop + sector loops

Quote
Hairball
Stay safe Bjornulf, and all other fans planning to travel in the area.
I guess the best case scenario if the show goes as planned would be LOTS of rain with not much wind.
Anything beyond that (extremely high winds, torrential downpour, etc.) I would think they can push it a day or two back.

Being a lifetime South Floridians, the problem is you never really know where the storm is going to hit, I remember hurricane Matthew was supposed to hit us hard and made a sharp turn North at the last minute. We still had torrential down pour’s and wind, and there was no way a concert could be held. That’s why I keep saying it’s smart to make a decision now and postpone the show until Tuesday and then when the storm is long gone and people have time to put your stuff back together and go to the show.

They gave two days notice on the New Orleans show, that it was being pushed back a day. I suspect they will do the same thing here.

I'm thinking conditions will probably be safe enough to do the show Sunday night.
Surely, by Monday night (but Monday is Labor Day, and will the venue staff even be willing to come in to work?)

I guess we'll know soon enough.

If best case scenario: just rain, aren't all the seats covered with an overhang at Hardrock?

Quote
Ram
If best case scenario: just rain, aren't all the seats covered with an overhang at Hardrock?

It's more like a sunshade than an actual cover. And that's only for the people in the stands. The people on the field are totally uncovered.

No, all seats are not covered. Nor is the stage. I suspect we will be having a Monday night show b/c Sunday is still at risk of a lot of wind and/or rain. Monday could well be quite nice (hot of course). Tuesday is too far out Doc. No reason to wait that long.

Stay safe every one.

I'd hate to go to any concert where the band is cowering at the back of the covered part of the stage, while the audience gets drenched by torrential rain. Even the Stones.

They wouldn't be able to use the runways, even in a slight drizzle. IIRC, they've made it through every show of the tour without having to use their B-stageless "Rain" setlist. It would be a shame to wreck that perfect record now.

If they use a battery of old Ampegs this storm won't stand a chance.

An auto-updating map of the 5-day cone WITH line:

Quote
DrFixembones

Quote
bv
Forecasters became more sure Tuesday that Tropical Storm Dorian is headed toward Florida or the lower Southeast coast.

South Carolina remains on the northern edge of potential tracks for the storm.

But federal meteorologists still aren’t certain how weak or strong Dorian might be at U.S. landfall, which is expected Sunday. The forecast calls for it to be a tropical storm.

“As a smaller tropical storm, Dorian could both strengthen and weaken more quickly than usual,” said meteorologist Bob Henson, with the forecasting company Weather Underground.

Predictions from the two leading computer models — which had varied widely on Monday — came into close agreement Tuesday that the storm would weaken coming across the Caribbean islands then strengthen before landfall in Florida.

Dorian winds weaken; tropical storm threat increases to FL, SE coast

BV, I live 15 minutes due east of the stadium. When any type of tropical storm or hurricane comes our way it affects all of South Florida, any idea when the stones will make an announcement? Tuesday would be a wise choice to make sure that everyone is in the clear

This map shows the storm arriving earlier. Looks like flying in at midnight Friday night might not happen



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2019-08-27 20:07 by jumpontopofmebaby.

Quote
Ram
If best case scenario: just rain, aren't all the seats covered with an overhang at Hardrock?

No, the configuration is quite strange actually, there is a small partial roof with the four corners but the middle is entirely open and if there is any sort of wind accompanying the rain, everyone is going to get soaked. There’s no way to have a concert if this storm is anywhere close to South Florida, they need to wait until it leaves

Walmart in Stuart is already out of bottled water. Also, to note, there are 5-6 million people that live in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.


I live in Martin County, which is 30 miles north of West Palm Beach.

Move the show to Macon. Maybe a free festival at Chuck's place.

Well Dallas TX October 31st 1981 was my first Stones show. It rained so hard at times you could hardly see 10 feet in front of you. The Stones played as if it was not raining at all.

I am hoping I don't have to do that again. But I will if I have to!

Another factor is the stage and all the risks of leaving it assembled through
the hurricane.

Reserved rooms for Sun, Mon, Tues, can cancel 1 day ahead with no fee +rooms were a lot cheaper. Being on the right quadrant of landfall is not a place I want to be.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2019-08-27 20:37 by 1badgator.

[www.nhc.noaa.gov]

they've adjusted it further North towards central FL

Quote
two4fun111
[www.nhc.noaa.gov]

they've adjusted it further North towards central FL

Does it tell you what city it will make land fall?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2019-08-27 22:15 by jumpontopofmebaby.

Quote
bv
We will know a lot more about this tropical storm by the next 1-2 days.

It may go weeaker or stronger, and it may go slower and do landfall on Sunday.

It may est or east of Miami.

Worst case the Stones show in Miami Saturday Aug 31 is in danger, best case it will be quite wet; it will be wet anyway.

As Keith says, good to be here - good to be anywhere....

The problem with hurricanes is that they may grow in strengt over water, or slow down and get weaker over land. If other places in the Carribean are taking the hit then it may get slower and change directions, but we would not know until later this week.

I assume for the Stones it is business as usual, until otherwise told. Some time, before people start coming in, by Friday or so, they need to talk to city officials in Miami and discuss if it is safe to do a show.

New Orleans had the problem with flooding, which in itself is a big issue. Miami will be wet anyway, but they can't bring people to a show if the city is anywhere near a hurricate situation.

Today is Tuesday. We will know a lot more in two days, by Thursday, I don't think there is any point in worrying too much until then.

Bjornulf

Just trying to do this jigsaw puzzle before it rains anymore

BV is 100% correct. A ton will change between now and Thursday. Sit tight and watch what develops. I know it's stressful for people coming from out of town but you will have a much better idea of what's up on Thursday, certainly by Thursday afternoon.

Latest 5pm track is predicting even further north... landfall around Cocoa Beach/Melbourne area.

While it looks encouraging, we're not out of the woods yet. This thing could literally "go south" on us and make one big mess.

The most important thing to do is keep an eye on the situation. Anybody who has to travel to get here should think through a contingency plan. If you have a backup plan, you'll be in a better position to deal with whatever Mother Nature throws at us.

With a little luck, Mick can blow Dorian a kiss from the stage as she passes by on Saturday.