Am I missing something here? Based on the maps I have seen of the storm if it does hit Miami it would be late Sunday or Monday. The concert is Saturday. And also what I see it is going to weaken.

You are correct for now for sure. But these things change quickly. I am expecting south Florida to feel little to no impact as of now. But again things change.

Fingers crossed everything just goes as planned! I am coming in from Missouri on Friday and staying in Fort Lauderdale then headed back on Tuesday. So for me it’s a Rolling Stones and mini beach vacation.

Don't be too quick to brush this off. We all need to keep an eye on this. Anybody who's lived in Miami for 35 years was here for Andrew, plus quite a few relatively minor direct hits and over a dozen very messy near-misses.

It's not too early to follow Dorian and consider contingency plans. The water is very warm in the Caribbean, so it's very possible that this will re-intensify, once it emerges from the mountains and dry air over Hispaniola.

At present, Dorian is a small, compact storm. Even if it doesn't grow in size as it goes through the Bahamas, it could be centered in the Bahamas and still cause big problems in Miami.

Even a Sunday or Monday arrival and 100-mile miss could disrupt the return travel plans for the non-locals. And I can't imagine what that could do to the crew that has to dismantle the stage and load it onto the trucks.

And best case -- Dorian doesn't recover from the weakening -- will still bring a lot of moisture to the southern half of Florida.

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jumpontopofmebaby

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rlj1010
It's still very very early, but latest tracks have it downgrading back to a depression by Friday morning...

Sure looks like to me it would Monday before it even gets there

Updated

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jumpontopofmebaby

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jumpontopofmebaby

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rlj1010
It's still very very early, but latest tracks have it downgrading back to a depression by Friday morning...

Sure looks like to me it would Monday before it even gets there

Updated

Updated again. And now a lot closer to Florida then before by Saturday



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2019-08-26 18:07 by jumpontopofmebaby.

It's still pretty early, but based on the current projections, I will be surprised if they stick to the 8/31 plan. Maybe push it a day until Sun 9/1 after its passed over? Or 9/2, but that's Labor Day so im not sure employees will be willing to work...

I'm local so whatever happens, I'll be there, but would be terrible for the many of you coming in from out of town who can't change their plans...

It's always something...

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rlj1010
It's still pretty early, but based on the current projections, I will be surprised if they stick to the 8/31 plan. Maybe push it a day until Sun 9/1 after its passed over? Or 9/2, but that's Labor Day so im not sure employees will be willing to work...

I'm local so whatever happens, I'll be there, but would be terrible for the many of you coming in from out of town who can't change their plans...

It's always something...

Good point. I have worked in S. Florida for the last 20 years with some abbreviated trips to other states.


South Floridians will take the SAFE Route and Close businesses as if were a 100% chance of happening. Labor Day is ironic and not really a factor in any decision. Just like the rest of America,


Folks will buy batteries, generators, alcohol , gasoline, popcorn etc.. as if it were any other state experiencing even the slightest threat,


Again, I'm not sure what the status will be.... Please keep in mind, if correct there may be County Lightning laws that prohibit events from occurring.

The map graphic updates in place, so you don't have to repost it every time there's an update. Maybe once a page would be nice, but we don't need to scroll through 10 miles of the same updated map on each page. If you don't believe me, look at the time stamp on the first copy and the most recent -- they're the same.

The latest forecast puts it as Tropical Storm Dorian with 52mph sustained winds, and located about 250 miles away from Miami at 8:00 a.m. Saturday. At the projected course and speed, it will be within 100 miles of Miami by 8:00 p.m., plus it may continue to strengthen. Even small tropical storms are pretty big. We could be 300 miles away from the center and still get bands of torrential rain.

Barring divine intervention, we'll start getting those bands of rain by Saturday afternoon. Those bands will become more frequent as the storm gets closer, and by late Saturday/early Sunday there will be few and brief breaks in the rain.

I thought about saying they should move the concert UP to Friday, but I don't know how long it would take them to pack up the stage. They might not make it out of Dodge in time.

And thanks to Chris for reminding us about the lightning threat.

Nobody is reposting the map. But people keep quoting/replying to the original post with the chart, so it keeps reappearing.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2019-08-26 19:10 by rlj1010.

Now starting to wonder if my flight will be allowed to come in on Friday. I do not get in until about Midnight



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2019-08-26 22:44 by jumpontopofmebaby.

Miami's now in the "cone of death" for Saturday, August 31.

The 5pm update predicts that as of 2pm on Saturday, Dorian will be a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70mph (a hurricane begins at 75mph) and gusts up to 85mph. The center of Dorian will be about 120 miles due East of downtown Miami, but the outer edge of the storm will already cover Miami.

If the storm takes a southern track in the cone, it will be a weaker storm, because it has to pass through a bit of wind shear and it won't have as much time over the warm Caribbean waters. Unfortunately, today's spaghetti models hint that it may head a bit farther north on the Florida coast. That could be the difference between a nasty tropical storm and a hurricane. I am concerned for our friends in Boca and West Palm.

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5stringTele
Miami's now in the "cone of death" for Saturday, August 31.

The 5pm update predicts that as of 2pm on Saturday, Dorian will be a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70mph (a hurricane begins at 75mph) and gusts up to 85mph. The center of Dorian will be about 120 miles due East of downtown Miami, but the outer edge of the storm will already cover Miami.

If the storm takes a southern track in the cone, it will be a weaker storm, because it has to pass through a bit of wind shear and it won't have as much time over the warm Caribbean waters. Unfortunately, today's spaghetti models hint that it may head a bit farther north on the Florida coast. That could be the difference between a nasty tropical storm and a hurricane. I am concerned for our friends in Boca and West Palm.

I wonder how the stage will hold up to 70 MPH winds even though it is in the stadium it will still blow in there and possibly be worse because of a wind tunnel it might create

DAMN IT! Is all I have to say!

It doesn't look good for Saturday right now, but again there is a lot that can and will change between now and then, for better or worse. By the time everyone wakes up on the east coast on Thursday morning we will have a much better idea what is happening with the storm. I feel badly for those planning on flying in as the exit strategy may become a bit difficult. But again, should have a much better idea on Thursday morning what the storm is doing.

It is an interesting side note about building the stage with the storm coming. Perhaps they will assemble as much as possible without putting it "up" for lack of a better word until they see what is happening.

I truly hope tonight's show is not the last on this leg of the tour. Gotta believe they will still play Miami even if a few days late.

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keefmick
It doesn't look good for Saturday right now, but again there is a lot that can and will change between now and then, for better or worse. By the time everyone wakes up on the east coast on Thursday morning we will have a much better idea what is happening with the storm. I feel badly for those planning on flying in as the exit strategy may become a bit difficult. But again, should have a much better idea on Thursday morning what the storm is doing.

It is an interesting side note about building the stage with the storm coming. Perhaps they will assemble as much as possible without putting it "up" for lack of a better word until they see what is happening.

I truly hope tonight's show is not the last on this leg of the tour. Gotta believe they will still play Miami even if a few days late.

If it just a tropical storm I wonder if as early as Monday would be possible?

If I was a betting man, I'd put money on the show being moved to Sunday or Monday. (Hopefully Sunday, as I'm bringing the entire family and there's no school on Monday with the holiday. They could sleep in late!)

The stadium itself doesn't have any other events booked until a soccer match on Fri Sat 6. And we know the band doesn't have other shows that could be affected.

I live in Miami. 10 minutes from the Stadium. Would be wise to postpone till Tuesday

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DrFixembones
I live in Miami. 10 minutes from the Stadium. Would be wise to postpone till Tuesday

Hopefully no later than Monday. And hopefully they make the decision by Thursday early.

If they can postpone and it sure looks like they will have to then they need to do it ASAP so people can regroup.

Well at least I can cancel my Hotel until the 30th this time. Not going to flee to Miami if it hits farther up by the Space Coast. Maybe I should put the carb back on the generator.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2019-08-27 05:30 by 1badgator.

Good News / Bad News

This evening's spaghetti model runs are hinting a track even farther north (north of WPB ). I think that may be reflected in the 11pm forecast track.

The problem is that a northern track probably means it will be a hurricane at landfall. Also, we'll probably still get a glancing "blow" in Miami.

Damn, Dorian. Buy yourself a ticket!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2019-08-27 05:34 by 5stringTele.

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5stringTele
Good News / Bad News

This evening's spaghetti model runs are hinting a track even farther north (north of WPB ). I think that may be reflected in the 11pm forecast track.

The problem is that a northern track probably means it will be a hurricane at landfall. Also, we'll probably still get a glancing "blow" in Miami.

Damn, Dorian. Buy yourself a ticket!

Does the model give a time line. Will Miami Be in the clear By Sunday or Monday

And I wonder if my flight coming into Fort Lauderdale Friday midnight will still be allowed ?

The latest forecast puts it about 50 miles east of Boca Raton at 8pm Saturday. That's still close enough to cause a lot of rain.

Curiously, they have not upgraded the intensity. Still will be a very strong tropical storm.

For those of you don’t live here, even if it shows Saturday or even Sunday the hurricane close to Miami, the effects are felt 100 miles out, which could be anywhere. Safest thing is to postpone for Tuesday evening

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rlj1010
It's still pretty early, but based on the current projections, I will be surprised if they stick to the 8/31 plan. Maybe push it a day until Sun 9/1 after its passed over? Or 9/2, but that's Labor Day so im not sure employees will be willing to work...

I'm local so whatever happens, I'll be there, but would be terrible for the many of you coming in from out of town who can't change their plans...

It's always something...

Spot on. Tuesday would be the smart move

Didn't we go through this in New Orleans?

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jumpontopofmebaby

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DrFixembones
I live in Miami. 10 minutes from the Stadium. Would be wise to postpone till Tuesday

Hopefully no later than Monday. And hopefully they make the decision by Thursday early.

If they can postpone and it sure looks like they will have to then they need to do it ASAP so people can regroup.

Agreed. They should make an announcement immediately. Miami is in the cone. Chances are high that we get terrible weather Saturday night, even if the track deviates. Last show of the tour, push it back

Ohh, a storm is threatening…

How long before New Orleans did they announce they were changing it?