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50% chance Shane will show up, 0% chance he'll be sober.
Saw the Pogues (w/Shane) a couple years ago in Boston and it was brilliant. Really good time. He messed up a half dozen songs, kept introducing the wrong tune, etc, but man, I've always loved the Pogues and their energy, and Shane. He's in the "Well, I'm not dead yet, so I might as well carry on" category. Get out and see the Pogues while they are still performing w/ Shane.